Articles tagged with El Nino
A new study predicts that El Niño events will increase in frequency by 2040, regardless of efforts to reduce carbon emissions. The researchers used state-of-the-art climate models to examine the potential impacts of different emissions scenarios on global weather fluctuations.
Researchers linked El Niño to decreased enslaved Africans transported to the Americas due to drier conditions, indicating a two-year lag. The study highlights the interplay between weather and human conflict, with lessons applicable to modern-day climate change and potential conflicts.
A new prediction framework can forecast extreme climate events like floods and heatwaves up to two days in advance, allowing for crucial preparation time. This network-based approach analyzes large-scale connectivity patterns in observational data to improve forecasting accuracy.
A study in Nature Communications finds that strong El Niño events can drive nearly 6 million children into undernutrition, affecting 70% or more of children globally. Proactive climate action could prevent this tragedy by providing targeted interventions to vulnerable areas.
Researchers from the University of Tsukuba found that warm sea surface temperature conditions in the Indian Ocean contribute to anomalous weather events in East Asia, including record-breaking rainfall and severe flooding. The study suggests a link between warming Indian Ocean conditions and stagnation of the Meiyu-Baiu rainband.
Researchers found a 12,000-year record of marine sediment cores in Antarctica showing fluctuations in sea ice levels affecting algae growth. Algal bloom events occurred nearly every year before 4,500 years ago, but became less frequent after 4.5 thousand years ago, responding to climate cycles like ENSO.
Researchers have constructed new sea surface salinity indexes to identify two types of El Niño events (EP and CP) independently. The indexes are based on different key areas with varying ocean salinity patterns.
A new study simulates global warming at unprecedented resolution, revealing that increasing CO2 concentrations will weaken the intensity of the ENSO temperature cycle. This could lead to fewer El Niño and La Niña events, with potential implications for rainfall extremes.
The study found that El Niño led to higher plant mortality rates in forests with a history of human disturbance, resulting in significant carbon dioxide emissions. Plant growth was only able to offset 37% of the emissions three years after the start of El Niño.
A new study published in the Journal of Climate found that about 23% of uncertainty in WNPAC projection is attributed to El Nino amplitude change, while 77% comes from non-amplitude change related to El Nino decaying pace. The research highlights the importance of considering other El Nino characteristics in climate system projections.
A new study finds that model biases in simulating tropical climate trends can significantly impact projections of extreme El Niô frequency change. By removing the impacts of these biases, researchers conclude that the extreme El Niô frequency is likely to remain unchanged in the future, contrary to original projections.
Research reveals enhanced western Pacific MJO-related convection during the 2015/2016 super El Niô event. The warm SST anomaly was located more westward than previous events, leading to increased moisture and air temperature in the central-western Pacific.
A new study finds a correlation between the end of solar cycles and a switch from El Nino to La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean. The researchers applied a 22-year solar clock to find this elusive correlation, which could improve predictability of major El Nino and La Nina events.
A study published in Nature Communications found that regenerating tropical forests in Malaysian Borneo continued to grow despite high temperatures and water demand, but with limitations due to fragmentation and climate change. The researchers suggest wider buffers around riparian reserves to support forest growth and recovery.
Climate models predict an increase in extreme ENSO-related swings in rainfall due to future ocean warming, but temperature difference between El Niño and La Niña may change little. Researchers found that increased rainfall sensitivity is key to understanding this phenomenon.
Researchers identified the movement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone as a key factor limiting predictability of Atlantic Niño. The ITCZ's seasonal migration affects sea surface temperature interaction with atmosphere, hindering large climate changes.
A recent study found that Hawai'i drought is only associated with Eastern Pacific El Niño, while Central Pacific El Niño events result in deficient rainfall in Hawaii only 60% of the time. This new information has significant implications for water resource management and planning in Hawai'i.
Large volcanic eruptions improve monsoon predictability by synchronizing with El Niño events, making it easier to anticipate seasonal rainfall in India. This finding helps develop climate models and assess regional implications of geo-engineering experiments.
A study reveals that ancient Peruvian farmers used floodwater from El Niño events for agriculture, benefiting from flushed-out salts and flexible irrigation systems. This ancient farming practice allowed for runoff harvesting and river water distribution, suggesting potential agricultural advantages during El Niño events.
A new study found that accurately simulating ocean current variations during El Niño events is crucial for reducing climate prediction uncertainty. When models simulate these processes correctly, they show increased asymmetry between El Niño and La Niú, similar to natural climate swings.
Cristiana Stan and collaborators develop new diagnostic tools to forecast ENSO patterns. The tools aim to better understand the relationship between ENSO and the Madden-Julian Oscillation.
A recent study reveals that volcanic eruptions in the tropics lead to a decrease in global precipitation, primarily through the amplification of El Niño. The research found that the strength of El Niño is directly related to the magnitude of precipitation reduction.
Researchers at the University of Miami Rosenstiel School have discovered a connection between tropical weather events and US rainfall during El Niño years. The study's findings show that when both an El Niño Southern Oscillation and Madden-Julian Oscillation occur simultaneously, the resulting pressure and rainfall anomalies in the US ...
New research reveals how El Niño affects soil moisture content, controlling plant growth and food supply. The study identifies areas with severe decreases in soil moisture, such as the Amazon basin and maritime Southeast Asia, which may lead to large-scale plant die-offs.
Research suggests that global warming could disturb the Indian Ocean's surface temperatures, triggering an Indian Ocean El Niño similar to the Pacific Ocean phenomenon. This could lead to new climate extremes, including disruption of monsoons over East Africa and Asia.
A recent study has found that intense droughts and wildfires during the last El Niño climate phenomenon, combined with human disturbance, led to a significant decline in dung beetle numbers. The beetles, which play a crucial role in spreading nutrients and seeds, fell by more than half and took at least two years to recover.
Researchers found a connection between Arctic sea ice melting and altered Pacific El Niño activity. The study suggests that sea ice melt drives vertical convection in the Arctic Ocean, generating planetary waves that carry heat and momentum to the tropics.
A new study warns that the world's remaining tropical glaciers will melt away in the next decade, with others following soon after. The glaciers, located between the Himalayas and Andes, are already showing rapid melting, with some losing up to 75% of their surface area since 2010.
The last known tropical glaciers in the West Pacific Warm Pool are at risk of disappearing within a decade. The study found that the Puncak Jaya glaciers in Indonesia lost around 1.05 meters of ice per year between 2010 and 2015, with thinning rates increasing five-fold during strong El Niño events.
A new study found El Ninos have become more intense in the industrial age, with stronger events part of a climate pattern that is new and strange. The research used coral records spanning millennia to confirm this, showing industrial age ENSO swings are 25% stronger than pre-industrial records.
Researchers report a shift in El Niño onset from the eastern Pacific to the western Pacific, leading to more frequent and intense extreme events. Climate models predict further intensification under anthropogenic climate change.
A new study reveals that climate warming has shifted the onset location of strong El Niño events from the eastern Pacific to the western Pacific, causing more frequent extreme events. This shift is linked to increased sea surface temperatures in the western Pacific warm pool and easterly winds in the central Pacific.
A team from ISGlobal developed a new statistical climate model that can predict El Niño episodes up to two-and-a-half years in advance, improving long-term forecasts. The model uses sea temperatures and winds in the tropical Pacific as predictor variables.
A study by Prof. Renhe Zhang and colleagues found that El Niño decays faster than La Niña due to asymmetrical zonal wind anomalies in the equatorial western Pacific. The negative sea surface temperature anomaly associated with La Niña events persists for more than a year, resulting in a longer duration.
A new study from the University of Washington explores how Pacific Ocean conditions contribute to prolonged droughts in the Southwestern US. Researchers found that El Niño events can lead to multi-year droughts if followed by a La Niña event, and that a complex interplay between ocean and atmospheric conditions is at play.
An international team, led by Australian researchers, has published a first-of-its-kind study assessing the major drivers of global marine heatwaves. They found that known climate phenomena, such as El Niño and North Atlantic Oscillation, can increase the odds of marine heatwaves in other regions thousands of kilometres away.
Researchers created a 400-year seasonal record of El Niños from coral cores, detecting different types and showing a change in El Niño events. The record reveals more Central Pacific El Niños forming in recent decades, with stronger Eastern Pacific El Niños becoming the most intense ever recorded.
Researchers developed a statistical method to quantify changes in environmental systems, finding La Nina winters favor mountain snowpack. Scientists also invented synthetic antibodies that could improve disease detection and toxin identification.
A NASA study found that the 2015-2016 El Niño event triggered widespread disease outbreaks globally, including plague and hantavirus in Colorado, cholera in Tanzania, and dengue fever in Brazil and Southeast Asia. The study analyzed climate data and public health records to quantify the relationship between El Niño and disease outbreaks.
Researchers have discovered a history of bleaching on a coral reef in the central Pacific, which has survived extreme heatwaves due to currents that bring cold, nutrient-rich water. The reef's ability to recover after severe bleaching events is crucial for understanding how other reefs may grow back in the future.
Researchers at Pohang University of Science and Technology have found a way to predict El Niño conditions up to 17 months in advance. Changes in Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperatures can trigger La Niña, which affects global weather patterns.
A WSU climate scientist analyzed The Great Drought of 1875-78, leading to the Global Famine that killed 50 million people. Climate conditions characterized as more severe than before could be replicated with global warming.
Recent global warming trend slowdown can be explained by natural factors such as solar eleven-year cycles and strong volcanic explosions. The study highlights the crucial role of these phenomena in climate change, which has been underestimated by existing studies focusing solely on CO2 rise.
Future El Niño and La Niña events are expected to cause more intense temperature and precipitation changes, including increased wildfire risk in the Southwest US. Climate model simulations suggest that these events will become even cooler and wetter in California, exacerbating flood risks.
Researchers at UCSB and NCAR find that climate change is affecting the connection between El Niño and wildfires, leading to more extreme and frequent fires. As the Earth warms, El Niño events are expected to have a larger impact on fire risk in California and other fire-prone regions.
A new study reveals that El Niño diversity arises from the interaction between Eastern and Central Pacific oscillations, leading to irregular occurrence and complex behavior. This understanding is crucial for predicting El Niño events accurately in a warming world.
Researchers at the University of Washington found that measuring beak size can accurately determine the sex of Galapagos penguins, a simple and fast method for field studies. This knowledge will help scientists study the impact of climate change on this endangered species.
Scientists have discovered a new 'teleconnection' that predicts winter rainfall in California by analyzing sea surface temperatures in New Zealand during the summer. This discovery allows for more accurate precipitation predictions and has implications for drought forecasting and regional ecosystem management.
Researchers studied the effects of El Niño and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) on Nazca booby survival. Young birds face low survival rates during El Niño events due to depleted fish stocks, while adults experience higher mortality in warm PDO phases due to increased reproduction difficulties.
A study finds that doubling the frequency of El Niño events may lead to higher population numbers and a lower chance of extinction for Brandt's cormorants. The birds' ability to cope with environmental changes is improved when El Niños are interspersed with favorable La Niña phases.
A recent study reveals that seven of eight North China PSSD events occurred when La Niña transited to El Niño with a negative NPO phase in preceding winter. This study demonstrates that ENSO phase transition from La Niña to El Niño is one of the important precursors of North China PSSD.
A new study suggests that El Nino frequency is 300 percent more frequent in positive PDO phases and 58 percent less in negative phases. This finding could improve El Nino predictions by considering off-equatorial climate patterns.
According to an updated analysis from the Institute of Atmospheric Physics/Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2017 was the warmest year on record for the global ocean. The oceans accumulated 1.51 × 10^22 J of heat, surpassing the previous second-warmest year of 2015.
A new study published in Nature Geoscience found that strong El Nino events cause rapid melting of Antarctic ice shelves due to increased basal melt and reduced snowfall. In contrast, La Nina events lead to an increase in surface mass gain and reduce ice loss.
Researchers used a probabilistic approach to attribute the extreme event to natural variability and anthropogenic forcing. They found that strong El Niño events significantly increase the risk of extreme rainfall, but also suggest smaller-scale anthropogenic contributions.
Global warming is accelerating coral bleaching, threatening the future of coral reefs and millions of people reliant on them. The study documents a dramatic shortening of the gap between pairs of bleaching events, now occurring every six years on average.
Researchers Prof. Fei Zheng and Jin-Yi Yu found significant skill score differences between EP and CP El Niño events, with EP events better predicted at all lead times. This is attributed to systematic forecast biases and an overly warm eastern Pacific during the spring season for CP El Niño prediction.
Scientists improve drought prediction for La Niña events with two new studies, predicting a second year of drought due to the current La Niña. The research found that La Niña's impact on atmospheric circulation and southern U.S. drought becomes stronger in the second year.
Research reveals that climate shifts can significantly alter the length of marine food chains in Southern California. The study found that extreme environmental conditions, such as El Niño events, shortened the food chain by reducing population sizes and diversity. This change indicates a decline in ecosystem resilience.
A new study reveals that extreme marine conditions can significantly alter food chain dynamics in the California Current ecosystem. Dolphin diets suggest shorter food chains due to changes in prey availability and nitrogen cycling, potentially threatening ecosystem resilience.