Looking at El Niño's past to predict its future
A new study analyzes past El Niño changes to predict future climate shifts. The research found that natural climate forces such as ice cover and greenhouse gases impact ENSO variability.
El Nino
Articles tagged with El Nino
El Niño's 'remote control' on hurricanes in the Northeastern Pacific
Scientists found that El Niño fuels intense hurricanes in the region by altering atmospheric conditions, providing additional energy to tropical cyclones. The study reveals an oceanic pathway bringing heat into the basin two or three seasons after winter peak.
Satellite time-lapse movie shows California soaker
A new time-lapse animation of data from NOAA's GOES-West satellite reveals the movement of a record-setting storm system that brought heavy rainfall to Southern California. The storm, fueled by warm moisture from the Pacific Ocean, merged with a low-pressure system, resulting in torrential rains and setting new records for some areas.
Modeling the past to understand the future of a stronger El Nino
A team of researchers used state-of-the-art computer models to examine the influence of atmospheric carbon dioxide, ice sheet melting and changes in Earth's orbit on El Nino over the last 21,000 years. The study found that El Nino has intensified over the past 6,000 years, with feedbacks between ocean and atmosphere growing stronger.
El Niño stunts children's growth in Peru
A study published in BMC found that children born during and after the 1997-98 El Niño event had lower height-for-age and lean mass, indicating chronic malnutrition. The researchers warn that climate change may increase the frequency of El Niño episodes, posing a significant risk to future generations.
Warmest oceans ever recorded
The 2014 global ocean warming is a result of North Pacific's record-breaking warming and the release of heat from stored water in the Western tropical Pacific. Temperatures now extend along the North American coast, indicating an end to the 14-year-long pause in ocean warming.
Ocean primed for more El Niño
A new study using coral samples from a remote Pacific island in Kiribati reveals the ocean has warmed over the last sixty years, priming it for stronger El Niáo events. This warming trend could have a major impact on Australia's weather, particularly during El Niáo events when warm waters move eastward and bring droughts.
This week from AGU: Volcano hazards and the role of westerly wind bursts in El Niño
Researchers examine how westerly wind pulses impact El Niño's strength, suggesting a link between these events and the phenomenon's duration. Scientists also explore drilling into small volcanoes to better understand future hazards.
Ancient shellfish remains rewrite 10,000-year history of El Nino cycles
Scientists have found that ancient El Niño cycles were as strong and frequent 10,000 years ago as they are today. The new record, based on analysis of 25-foot piles of shells, contradicts a widely held interpretation of past climate, suggesting that current understanding of the El Niño system is incomplete.
NASA sees Tropical Storm Julio as part of a heated Eastern Pacific
Tropical Storm Julio is part of a heated Eastern Pacific, with warmer waters contributing to its development. The storm's trajectory and potential impact on Hawaii are being closely monitored by forecasters.
Different types of El Nino have different effects on global temperature
A new study reveals that traditional and central Pacific El Niño events have distinct effects on global surface temperatures. Global temperatures were anomalously warm during traditional El Niño events but not during central Pacific events, which occur more frequently now.
What is El Nino Taimasa?
During strong El Niño events, tropical western Pacific sees a sudden drop in sea level, causing prolonged droughts in Samoa and triggering tropical cyclones near Tahiti. Computer climate models predict that these drops could become seasons ahead, helping island communities prepare for the next event.
Get used to heat waves: Extreme El Nino events to double
Scientists predict a doubling of extreme El Nino events as the world warms, leading to increased heat waves and droughts. The research found that the eastern Pacific Ocean will warm, causing massive changes in global rainfall patterns.
If a tree falls in Brazil…? Amazon deforestation could mean droughts for western US
Researchers find Amazon deforestation could reduce rain and snowfall in the western US, resulting in water and food shortages. A study suggests a 50% reduction in Sierra Nevada snowpack could occur if the Amazon is stripped bare.
El Nino events get more extreme as globe warms
Researchers have found that El Nino events have been more active and intense over the past 30 years than at any time in the past 600 years. As global average temperatures increase, these extreme events are expected to become even more frequent and severe.
El Niño is becoming more active
A new approach to analyzing paleo-climate reconstructions reveals that El Niño activity during the 20th century was unusually high compared to past 600 years. The study found ENSO activity to be more active between 1979-2009 than any 30-year period in the past 600 years.
Global warming could change strength of El Niño
Research suggests that external changes can impact the strength and timing of El Niño events. Over 4,300 years, the ENSO cycle has changed due to natural influences on the Earth's climate, such as variations in its orbit around the sun.
Breakthrough in El Nino forecasting
Scientists at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research have developed a novel approach to forecast El Niño events, extending the prediction time to one year or more. The method employs network analysis and was tested successfully, predicting the absence of an El Niño event in the last year.
El Nino unusually active in the late 20th century
A new tree-ring record reveals El Niño was unusually active in the late 20th century, suggesting a response to global warming. This finding has implications for climate models and predictions of future ENSO activity.
Climate tug of war disrupting Australian atmospheric circulation patterns
A new study reveals climate change is altering Southern Hemisphere circulation patterns, with mid-latitude high pressure zones being pushed further into the Southern Ocean. Rising global temperatures are driving winds south, contradicting expectations from strong El Niño events.
Catastrophic climatic events leave corals facing a decade-long fight for recovery
A 17-year study on coral colonies off South America reveals the devastating impact of El Niño on coral diversity and density. The study found that it took 13 years for the coral reef system in Brazil to recover from the event, highlighting their vulnerability to climate-related changes.
Climate researchers discover new rhythm for El Niño
Researchers discovered a 15-month wind pattern that explains El Niño's close ties to the annual cycle. This unusual atmospheric pattern triggers droughts and floods in various regions. The study suggests that improved climate models will improve El Niño forecasts.
The Asian monsoon is getting predictable
Researchers found a strong correlation between summer monsoon and climate patterns that preceded it, enabling forecasts to predict the monsoon a few months in advance. The study discovered that El Niño's influence on the Indian Ocean temperature and atmospheric anomalies in the western Pacific amplifies each other.
Clues to climate cycles dug from south pole snow pit
Researchers have discovered a 22-year record of atmospheric chemistry in Antarctic snow, revealing clear connections between oxygen anomalies and global El Nino events. This breakthrough enables the reconstruction of paleoclimate cycles, providing new insights into Earth's climate history.
Coral records suggest that recent El Nino activity rises above noisy background
Scientists analyzed fossil corals to expand El Nino-Southern Oscillation information, helping assess accuracy of climate models for 21st century change in the tropical Pacific. The study detected a modest increase in 20th century ENSO strength, but also found higher levels of variability 400 years ago.
When it rains, it pours
A study by MIT estimates that tropical regions will see 10% heavier rainfall extremes with every 1 degree Celsius rise in temperature, posing significant risks for flooding. The research suggests a higher sensitivity of tropical extreme rainfall to global warming than previously thought.
AGU Journal highlights - June 15, 2012
Researchers have made significant breakthroughs in measuring ocean currents between North Atlantic and Nordic Seas, providing new insights into global ocean circulation. Additionally, a team has successfully observed the entire thermal infrared spectrum of atmospheric gases for the first time, shedding light on greenhouse gas absorption.
El Niño weather and climate change threaten survival of baby leatherback sea turtles
Climate conditions at nesting beaches affect early survival of turtle eggs and hatchlings, with warmer El Niño conditions linked to higher mortality rates. The study predicts a 50% drop in egg and hatchling survival by 2112 due to global climate change.
Warm, dry El Nino weather puts baby sea turtle at risk
Research published in PLOS ONE found that warmer, drier conditions associated with El Niño led to higher mortality rates for leatherback turtle eggs and hatchlings. Climate models project that these conditions will become more common, threatening the already endangered species.
Deconstructing a mystery: What caused Snowmaggedon?
Researchers found El Niño's warm sea surface temperatures and the North Atlantic Oscillation's fluctuation contributed to extreme winter storms in the US. The study used a computer model to simulate the atmosphere and isolated the role of sea surface temperatures in driving snowstorms.
Productivity of land plants may be greater than previously thought
Researchers found that the El Niño effect drives faster conversion of CO2 in the terrestrial biosphere, leading to a revised estimate of global primary productivity. The new value suggests that land plants are more productive than previously thought, with implications for climate models and future carbon cycle research.
El Niño and the tropical Eastern Pacific annual cycle run to the same beat
Researchers found phase synchronization between El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the annual temperature cycle in the eastern equatorial Pacific. This phenomenon indicates that at certain times El Niño and the annual cycle run according to the same beat, while at other times their phases 'slip past' each other.
50-million-year-old clam shells provide indications of future of El Nino phenomenon
Researchers investigated 50-million-year-old clam shells and wood from Antarctica, finding a climate rhythm resembling El Niño and La Niña in the South Pacific Ocean. The results indicate that global warming may not disrupt the ENSO climate rhythm above the South Pacific Ocean.
Climate cycles are driving wars, says study
A study found that El Niño boosts temperatures and cuts rainfall, doubling the risk of civil wars in affected tropical countries. The research tracked ENSO from 1950 to 2004 and correlated it with onsets of conflicts, finding that El Niño may have played a role in 21% of civil wars worldwide.
Ancient clams yield new information about greenhouse effect on climate
Research on ancient fossilized clams yields new insights into the relationship between global warming and El Niño. The study suggests that the ENSO system was still active 50 million years ago, despite very warm temperatures during the Eocene period.
La Ninas distant effects in East Africa
Researchers found that La Nina's cold phase leads to marginal rainfall and stronger winds in East Africa, while El Niño warm phase causes weak wind conditions with frequent rain. The study tracked climate variations to the last ice age using Lake Challa sediment cores.
Strong El Niño could bring increased sea levels, storm surges to US East Coast
A new study by NOAA finds that strong El Niño years can lead to nearly three times the average number of storm surge events along the East Coast, with a third-of-a-foot elevation in mean sea level. Coastal communities may need to prepare for higher sea levels and more destructive storm surges.
Tree rings tell a 1,100-year history of El Niño
A team of climate scientists has found that annually resolved tree-ring records from North America can be used to improve El Niño prediction in climate models. The study shows that the intensity of El Niño events has been highly variable, with decades of strong and weak activity over the past 1,100 years.
Research provides better understanding of long-term changes in the climate system
A team of researchers has made significant strides in understanding the long-term history of El Niño, a global climate phenomenon that impacts much of the world. By reconstructing sea surface temperatures over the past 14,000 years, the study provides valuable insights into the dynamics of this complex system.
Effects of El Nino land South Pacific reef fish in hot water
Climate change exacerbates the effects of El Niño on coral reef fish populations, leading to a near-absence of young fish necessary for adult replenishment. This process allows fish to feed on plankton and escape predators, but may now become an Achilles' heel in changing waters.
AGU journal highlights -- Nov. 2, 2010
Scientists have found toxic levels of chemicals near the Deepwater Horizon oil spill site, with PAH concentrations extending up to 13 kilometers from the wellhead. A global study on moisture recycling reveals that water can originate from distant regions or be recycled within a region, affecting global water resources.
Is the ice at the South Pole melting?
Researchers have found significant regional variations in the western Antarctic ice sheet due to El Nino fluctuations, affecting global sea levels. The study suggests that precipitation patterns play a crucial role in mass balance changes, with the Antarctic Peninsula experiencing increased snowfall during La Nina years.
Climate change may alter natural climate cycles of Pacific
Scientists link El Nino Modoki to long-term changes in North Pacific Ocean currents, affecting fish stocks and ocean nutrient distributions. The North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) is intensifying due to increasing frequency of El Nino Modoki.
AGU Journal highlights -- Aug. 30, 2010
Researchers discovered a relict coral reef in the southern Pacific Ocean that thrived thousands of years ago, providing insight into how reefs adapted to sea level changes. Additionally, heavy snowfall in the US and Europe was caused by the collision of El Niño and negative North Atlantic Oscillation weather patterns.
Global warming slows coral growth in Red Sea
Scientists at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution found that carbon dioxide-induced global warming is killing off a major coral species in the Red Sea. Coral growth has declined by 30% and may cease altogether by 2070 due to summer sea surface temperatures remaining 1.5 degrees Celsius above ambient.
The key role of the oceans' subpolar regions in the climate control of the tropics is confirmed
A study published in Science reveals that the Northern Pacific and Southern Atlantic's subpolar regions have played a crucial role in shaping tropical climates. This research provides empirical evidence that high-latitude oceans can influence tropical climate patterns, with potential implications for future global warming scenarios.
AGU journal highlights -- May 4, 2010
Researchers verified reductions in sulfur dioxide and nitrogen dioxide emissions from Chinese power plants using satellite monitoring. The study also predicts the evolution of central Pacific El Niño events, finding links to thermocline depth and its impact on weather patterns.
El Niño and a pathogen killed Costa Rican toad, study finds
A new study finds that a pathogen, not climate change, killed the Monteverde golden toad. Researchers reconstructed moisture levels in the cloud forest over the last century and discovered that dry spells closely tracked El Niño events.
CCNY professor foresees rising Antarctic snowmelt
A 30-year record low in Antarctic snowmelt was likely caused by strong positive phases for two main climate drivers, ENSO and SAM. The Antarctic snowmelt is expected to revert to higher norms as the damage to the ozone layer is repaired.
Past regional cold and warm periods linked to natural climate drivers
Researchers reconstructed spatial patterns of ocean and land surface temperature over the past 1500 years using diverse climate proxies. They found dynamic connections between natural phenomena like El Niño and regional temperature changes.
Climate variability and dengue incidence
Research published in PLoS Medicine found associations between local rainfall and temperature with cases of dengue fever, but no significant link with El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Large outbreaks occur every few years in many tropical countries, with temperature and rainfall varying strongly on an annual scale.
Global warming cycles threaten endangered primate species
Researchers analyzed global warming's impact on four New World monkey species, finding a significant drop in their populations during climate fluctuations. The team used statistical models to investigate how food resources and tree responses related to temperature and rainfall patterns.
Panama butterfly migrations linked to El Niño, climate change
A long-term study found that El Niño drives the migration of Sulfur butterflies in Panama, with peak migrations occurring after rainy season begins. The research suggests that understanding global climate cycles can improve prediction of insect movements and effects on crops.
Global warming may dent El Niño's protective shield from Atlantic hurricanes, increase droughts
A recent study suggests that global warming conditions will increase the incidence of central Pacific El Niño, potentially reducing its protective effects on Atlantic hurricanes. This could lead to more severe droughts in regions like Australia and India.
Texas A&M researcher shows possible link between 1918 El Niño and flu pandemic
A study published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society suggests that the 1918 El Niño may have contributed to the severity of the flu pandemic. The research indicates that the El Niño was one of the strongest of the 20th century, and its impact on global weather patterns could have exacerbated the spread of the disease.
Solar cycle linked to global climate, drives events similar to El Nino, La Nina
New research by NCAR shows a key link between the solar cycle and global climate, with maximum solar activity impacting Earth similarly to La Nina and El Nino events. The study may pave the way toward better predictions of temperature and precipitation patterns.
Solar cycle linked to global climate
Research by NSF-funded scientists reveals a scientifically feasible link between the 11-year solar cycle and ENSO, influencing climate variability globally. The study suggests that maximum solar activity can drive La Niña-like events with similar impacts on global temperature and precipitation patterns.
New type of El Nino could mean more hurricanes make landfall
A new study suggests that a changing form of El Niño could result in a greater number of hurricanes forming in the Atlantic Ocean. This 'El Niño Modoki' type forms in the Central Pacific, leading to increased storm frequency and potential for landfall along the Gulf coast and Central America.
Climate phenomenon influences England's chances in the Australian leg of the Ashes
A study found that El Nino years favor the Australian team's success in the Ashes series held in Australia, while La Nina years benefit England. The research analyzed Ashes matches from 1882-2007 and showed a strong correlation between ENSO phases and team performance.
Antarctic climate: Short-term spikes, long-term warming linked to tropical Pacific
A new analysis of ice cores reveals that West Antarctica's climate is influenced by atmospheric and oceanic changes in the tropical Pacific, with dramatic year-to-year temperature swings and a century-long warming trend. The findings show the connection between global warming and periodic events like El Niño.