Limited nuclear war between India and Pakistan could lead to global food insecurity, according to a study. Nuclear conflict in South Asia could ignite fires that inject 5 Tg of soot into the atmosphere. The possible effects on climate have been examined, but little is known about the potential agricultural impact worldwide. Jonas Jägermeyr and colleagues used six state-of-the-art crop models and two sets of climate model simulations and found that the release of 5 Tg of soot would decrease global temperature by 1.8º Celsius, and precipitation by 8%, on average, over the first 5 years. Consequently, the total global caloric production from maize, wheat, rice, and soybean would drop by 11% annually, averaged over the first 5 years. Yield losses could reach 50% in temperate regions in the Northern Hemisphere, which includes countries that are major cereal grain exporters. Moreover, persistent multiyear yield losses would lead to food shortages that propagate to the Global South, especially to food-insecure countries, resulting in a 13% global decrease in the availability of maize and wheat within 5 years. According to the authors, regional nuclear conflict could disrupt food production and trade worldwide for around a decade, causing larger crop losses than historic droughts, volcanic eruptions, and future climate change.
Article #19-19049: "A regional nuclear conflict would compromise global food security," by Jonas Jägermeyr et al.
MEDIA CONTACT: Jonas Jägermeyr, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL; e-mail: jaegermeyr@uchicago.edu
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Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences