Researchers report a method for estimating seismic risk by modeling various earthquake scenarios and identifying impacts common to multiple scenarios; applying the method to 90 earthquake scenarios in Nepal suggests that most scenarios produce impacts well below the worst-case scenario regardless of the specific earthquake characteristics, with the greatest risk concentrated in rural western Nepal rather than urban areas, providing guidance for contingency planning and risk reduction efforts.
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Article #18-07433 : "Use of scenario ensembles for deriving seismic risk," by Tom R. Robinson et al.
MEDIA CONTACT : Tom R. Robinson, Durham University, UNITED KINGDOM; tel: +44-191-33-41843, +44-7823-406-824; e-mail: tom.robinson@durham.ac.uk
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences