“Shaken, not stirred” — it is widely known how James Bond prefers his martinis. In physics, stirring stretches a fluid into thin streaks, creating turbulence and mixing its properties. In the ocean, a similar process occurs as winds and other forces move seawater. When this happens horizontally over tens to hundreds of kilometres, it is called mesoscale horizontal stirring (MHS).
MHS plays a crucial role in redistributing heat, nutrients, and dissolved substances in the upper ocean, shaping plankton distribution and influencing the movement of fish eggs, larvae, and pollutants such as microplastics. However, studying small-scale ocean currents in polar regions has long been a challenge due to their remoteness and harsh conditions. Ship-based observations and satellite data provide limited detail, while most climate models lack the resolution needed to capture fine-scale turbulence and horizontal mixing accurately.
To address this gap, a team of researchers led by Professor June-Yi Lee, Mr. Gyuseok Yi, and Professor Axel Timmermann from the IBS Center for Climate Physics (ICCP) at Pusan National University, South Korea, conducted ultra-high-resolution simulations using the Community Earth System Model version 1.2.2 (CESM-UHR). These simulations, performed on the Aleph supercomputer at the Institute for Basic Science in Daejeon, enabled the team to examine how ocean stirring responds to greenhouse warming. Their findings, published in Nature Climate Change on November 5, 2025, show how this fully coupled model—integrating atmosphere, sea ice, and ocean components—captures the dynamic interactions that drive MHS under present-day, CO₂-doubling, and CO₂-quadrupling conditions.
“Our results indicate that mesoscale horizontal stirring will intensify considerably in the Arctic and Southern Oceans in a warming climate,” said Mr. Yi.
The team found that this intensification is primarily driven by stronger ocean flow and turbulence resulting from sea ice loss. Using a diagnostic tool known as the finite-size Lyapunov exponent (FSLE), which measures how neighboring parcels of water drift apart, the researchers observed a clear increase in horizontal stirring across both polar oceans. In the Arctic, sea ice loss exposes open water to wind, stirring the water column more vigorously and increasing eddy activity. In Antarctic coastal regions, melting and freshening enhance density gradients, strengthening currents such as the Antarctic Slope Current.
As ocean turbulence intensifies, nutrient cycles, plankton distribution, and the movement of microplastics could change substantially. Prof. Lee noted, “This study highlights important implications of global warming and associated ocean changes on the ocean ecosystem and the dispersal of pollutants such as microplastics. This type of research will be crucial for developing climate policies, including adaptation measures.”
Further research at ICCP will integrate biological models of plankton and fish into next-generation simulations. “Currently, at the IBS Center for Climate Physics in South Korea, we are developing a new generation of Earth system models that better integrate the interactions between climate and life,” added Prof. Timmermann. “This will deepen our understanding of how polar ecosystems respond to global warming.”
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About Pusan National University
Pusan National University, located in Busan, South Korea, was founded in 1946 and is now the No. 1 national university of South Korea in research and educational competency. The multi-campus university also has other smaller campuses in Yangsan, Miryang, and Ami. The university prides itself on the principles of truth, freedom, and service and has approximately 30,000 students, 1,200 professors, and 750 faculty members. The university comprises 14 colleges (schools) and one independent division, with 103 departments in all.
Website: https://www.pusan.ac.kr/eng/Main.do
About Mr. Gyuseok Yi
Mr. Gyuseok Yi, the leading author, is a Ph.D. student in the Department of Climate System, Pusan National University, and a student researcher at the Center for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic Science. His work is to better quantify and understand the polar ocean responses to greenhouse gas warming.
About Prof. Jun-Yi Lee
Professor June-Yi Lee, the co-corresponding author, is a Professor at the Research Center for Climate Sciences, Pusan National University, and a project leader at the IBS Center for Climate Physics (ICCP). She leads a research group investigating Earth system sensitivity and predictability, focusing on how atmospheric, oceanic, and cryospheric processes interact under changing climate conditions. Her work combines advanced modelling and data analysis to improve understanding of global and regional climate variability, contributing to more accurate long-term climate projections and informed adaptation strategies for a warming world.
ORCID ID: 0000-0003-2567-2973
Nature Climate Change
Computational simulation/modeling
Not applicable
Future mesoscale horizontal stirring in polar oceans intensified by sea ice decline
5-Nov-2025
The authors declare that they have no competing interests.