Researchers report how conflict influences polio vaccination and incidence in Pakistan. The global incidence of paralytic polio cases has declined in recent decades. Pakistan is one of the last remaining countries that have yet to stop poliovirus circulation. Insecurity related to regional conflict is often cited as a barrier to eradicating polio, but the claim is based on limited scientific evidence. Amol Verma and colleagues analyzed the number of deaths and injuries related to monthly conflict-related security incidents and health data from 32 districts in northwest Pakistan to study the interplay of insecurity and polio vaccination and incidence. The dataset included 645 paralytic polio cases reported during 2007-2014 and 666 polio vaccination campaigns during 2007-2009. Using statistical modeling, the authors found that high insecurity was linked to reduced vaccinator access and polio vaccination. Compared with secure campaigns, campaigns with high insecurity experienced a 19.7% increase in the number of children inaccessible to vaccinators and a 5.3% decrease in vaccination rates. Additionally, the incidence of polio was 73% greater in months with high insecurity, compared with secure months. According to the authors, the findings suggest that regional insecurity might hinder polio eradication efforts.
Article #17-11923: "Insecurity, polio vaccination rates, and polio incidence in northwest Pakistan," by Amol Verma et al.
MEDIA CONTACT: Amol Verma, St. Michael's Hospital, Toronto, CANADA; tel: 416-729-3893; e-mail: < amol.verma@mail.utoronto.ca >
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Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences