Researchers report a statistical model for predicting terror groups' future lethality; the model conceptualizes terror groups as businesses constrained by capabilities and resources and estimates those attributes from attack patterns, resulting in a model that explains lethality better than standard models, accurately estimates lifetime lethality from the first several attacks, and potentially aids in identifying highly destructive terror groups before they mature.
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Article #19-01975: "Quantifying the future lethality of terror organizations," by Yang Yang, Adam R. Pah, and Brian Uzzi.
MEDIA CONTACT: Brian Uzzi, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL; tel: 847-491-8072; e-mail: uzzi@northwestern.edu
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences