129 people in the UK had been diagnosed with vCJD by the end of 2002, of whom 121 had died. The time from disease onset to death has remained constant at around one year. There were 17 UK deaths from the disease in 2002, 20 in 2001, and 28 in 2000.
Robert Will (one of the authors) from the National CJD Surveillance Unit, Edinburgh, UK, comments: "Our results suggest that the rate of deaths from vCJD is not increasing exponentially and that the number of deaths per year is declining, although the underlying trend might have slowed rather than peaked… That mortality is no longer increasing exponentially is encouraging. However, to conclude that the epidemic is in permanent decline would be premature."
Contact: Professor Robert G Will, National CJD Surveillance Unit, Western General Hospital, Crewe Road, Edinburgh EH4 2XU, UK;
T) 44-131-537-2128;
F) 44-131-343-1404;
E) r.g.will@ed.ac.uk
The Lancet