Texas busing programs that transported newly-arrived immigrants to Democratic-led cities boosted President Donald Trump’s vote share in affected counties during the 2024 election, according to a new study from the USC Price School of Public Policy and the University of North Texas.
Published in Sociological Science, the study quantifies the political impact of a policy that brought a unique migration shock to places far from the U.S.-Mexico border. The findings also highlight the growing role of state- and city-led immigration policies, as well as the enduring power of perceived threats from racial minorities, researchers said. The findings come as immigration enforcement is expected to be a top issue heading into the 2026 midterm elections.
From 2022 to 2024, Republican Texas Gov. Greg Abbott transported more than 100,000 migrants to six cities that were led by Democratic mayors and had enacted "sanctuary" policies that protected undocumented immigrants by restricting cooperation with federal immigration officials. The cities were Chicago, Denver, Los Angeles, New York, Philadelphia, and Washington, D.C.
To examine the electoral impact of the widely publicized busing program, researchers analyzed county-level election data and Associated Press VoteCast exit polls, comparing election results from 2016, 2020 and 2024. Study authors contrasted electoral results from counties that received migrant buses against those that did not, isolating how much affected counties distinctively changed in 2024 versus 2016 and 2020.
The study found:
“Texas Governor Abbott and President Trump were able to activate and mobilize anti-immigrant sentiments that had a measurable impact on the outcome of the presidential election,” said study co-author David Brady, a USC Price School Professor. “Given the overwhelming evidence that immigration is associated with lower crime, voters should be particularly skeptical when politicians try to falsely link immigration and crime.”
In addition to Brady, the study was authored by University of North Texas Associate Professors William Scarborough (lead author) and Ronald Kwon.
“Our study confirms longstanding sociological work on minority threat, showing that many individuals react against the perception that they are in closer proximity to minority groups — in this case, by voting for candidates who broadly oppose immigration,” Scarborough said. “This was not, however, a foregone conclusion. Media coverage and political messaging framed the busing program as a crisis, significantly shaping how it was perceived by residents and raising their concerns.”
The study’s findings indicate that the 2024 election was more strongly shaped by voters’ perceived threat from an influx of racial minorities than by concerns over how the bused immigrants were treated.
Public discussion often linked the arrival of bused migrants to rising crime, even though research shows that the influx of migrants had no effect on local crime rates and that immigrants generally commit crimes at lower rates than native-born citizens. Still, the perception of a connection between immigration and crime appears to have influenced voting decisions.
Sociological Science
10-Mar-2026