MEDFORD, MA — March 24, 2026 — Digital Planet, the research center at the forefront of researching the AI transformation at The Fletcher School at Tufts University, today released the American AI Jobs Risk Index . It is a first-of-its-kind data-driven framework that maps the potential of AI-driven job vulnerability across every major occupation, industry, metropolitan area, and state in the United States. Drawing on 15 years of labor market data and the most current AI adoption research, the Index goes beyond prior studies by measuring actual vulnerability to job loss — not merely exposure — and connecting that vulnerability directly to projected income loss and geography.
The Index projects approximately 9.3 million U.S. jobs are at risk of displacement in the next 2–5 years, with a plausible range of 2.7 to 19.5 million depending on alternative adoption scenarios. Associated household income at risk spans $200 billion to $1.5 trillion annually, with a midpoint of roughly $757 billion — equivalent to the economies of Belgium and, under faster AI adoption, approaching that of South Korea. The assessment does not incorporate job creation effects given lack of robust available data.
"We already know that AI is not just automating routine tasks — it is moving up, targeting the cognitive and analytical work that defines high-skill, high-wage careers. The jobs of the future will be secured by those with a combination of subject-matter expertise, critical-thinking skills for human judgment, and knowledge of AI and how to use it. Our index makes clear that the question is no longer whether AI will displace significant numbers of workers, but in which states and cities, how fast, and whether we are prepared by taking pre-emptive action. The geography of this disruption has real political consequences: the states and metros most at risk are already the most active in seeking AI regulation — and the federal government is telling them to stand down. That collision will define the economic and political landscape of the next decade."
— Bhaskar Chakravorti, Dean of Global Business, The Fletcher School at Tufts University, and Chair of Digital Planet
Key Findings
The Scale of Risk Is Historic. Expected American job loss amounts to a wipeout equivalent to the economy of Belgium. Industry-wide vulnerability averages approximately 6%, but the steepest risks sit in Information (18%), Finance and Insurance (16%), and Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services (16%). High-earning knowledge workers — Writers and Authors (57%), Computer Programmers (55%), and Web and Digital Interface Designers (55%) — face the highest rates of job displacement by occupation.
$757 Billion in Annual Income Is on the Line. Occupations vulnerable to AI-driven displacement account for an estimated $757 billion in annual U.S. wages and salaries. The greatest absolute income losses fall on Software Developers, Management Analysts, and Market Research Analysts, reflecting both high salaries and large worker populations.
4.9 Million Workers Are at a Tipping Point. The Index identifies 33 "tipping point" occupations — spanning 4.9 million workers — that swing from under 10% to over 40% displacement risk depending on how quickly AI adoption accelerates. Ironically, over one million workers whose jobs involve studying, building, or reporting on AI itself face 26–55% displacement rates. AI is rewriting how we write history: Historians top the automation ranking, with 67% of their tasks expected to be automated.
Augmentation Is a Displacement Pipeline. The more AI enhances worker efficiency, the more expendable individual workers become. The Index finds a strong relationship between a job's augmentation potential and its displacement risk. For every 1 percentage point increase in job automation, the Index projects a 0.75 percentage point job loss.
Innovation Hubs Are the Most Exposed. Major urban centers — New York, Los Angeles, Washington D.C., San Francisco, Chicago, Dallas, and Boston — each face at least $20 billion in projected annual income losses. Silicon Valley (San Jose metro) leads all regions with 9.9% of jobs at risk. University towns including Durham-Chapel Hill, Boulder, Ann Arbor, Ithaca, and Madison rank among the top 25 most vulnerable metros — the "Wired Belts" are the first to rust.
The Safe Zone Is the Near-Poverty Zone. 38% of American workers are AI-proof — but these are also the country's lowest-paid jobs. Physical, manual, and variable-condition work (roofers, orderlies, dishwashers) face less than 1% displacement. The occupations AI cannot touch are largely those the economy has always undervalued.
State-Level Risk Carries Political Consequences. D.C. (11.3% vulnerability), Massachusetts, Virginia, Maryland, Washington, and Colorado face the highest proportional exposure. California, Texas, New York, Florida, and Illinois will experience the largest absolute losses. Critically, states most at risk from AI job displacement are legislating 4× more on AI than the safest states — and the federal government, via a December 2025 Executive Order, has directed the Justice Department to challenge state-level AI laws and threatened to withhold Broadband Equity, Access, and Deployment (BEAD) funding from states that proceed.
What Sets This Index Apart
The American AI Jobs Risk Index enters a field that includes analyses from Goldman Sachs, MIT's Iceberg Index, the Yale Budget Lab, Stanford's "Canaries in the Coal Mine," and the WEF Future of Jobs Report. It breaks new ground in four areas:
Recommendations FOR ACTION
The Index yields a forward-looking assessment of AI’s potential impact on employment with actionable recommendations.
Policymakers are urged to modernize unemployment insurance to cover gig and contract workers most exposed to automation, introduce wage insurance for AI-displaced workers re-employed at lower wages, and create state-level AI Workforce Transformation Groups. They should also create a unified AI labor market measurement initiative and require companies to disclose AI workforce data. State and local policymakers should aim for regulations and safeguards with their constituencies’ interests in mind.
Businesses are called on to invest in targeted reskilling and internal mobility programs and to track and publish data on AI's actual workforce impact. They should also approach AI deployment as augmentation first, not replacement, and decisions directly affecting workers (hiring, scheduling, performance evaluation) should retain meaningful human review.
Technologists should partner with educators to build stackable AI credentials and lifelong learning infrastructure, while educators should prepare students with a combination of AI literacy, subject-matter expertise, and critical-thinking skills.
Civil society organizations are encouraged to independently monitor displacement, connect economic disruption to political action, and advocate for education reform targeted to specific at-risk roles.
About the American AI Jobs Risk Index
The American AI Jobs Risk Index was researched and authored by Digital Planet at The Fletcher School at Tufts University. The Index ranks 784 occupations, 530 metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas, 50 U.S. states, and 20 industry sectors by vulnerability to AI-driven job displacement. The Index will be updated as AI capabilities and labor market conditions evolve.
Full report and methodology: https://digitalplanet.tufts.edu/ai-and-the-emerging-geography-of-american-job-risk-page/
About Digital Planet at The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Digital Planet, an interdisciplinary research initiative of The Fletcher School’s Institute for Business in the Global Context, is dedicated to understanding the impact of digital innovations on the world and providing actionable insights for policymakers, businesses, investors, and innovators. The Fletcher School, founded in 1933, is a premier graduate school of international affairs, preparing leaders across government, business, and civil society to advance solutions to the world’s most pressing challenges.
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