By linking theoretical models from microeconomics and hydrology, researchers examined the theoretical foundations of previous suggestions that climate change is likely to drive a rise in violent conflict by adversely affecting income security in politically unstable regions, and found that this projection does not properly account for human adaptation to changed conditions; the findings provide avenues for differentiating drivers of conflict and suggest that conflicts may decrease if coveted resources become less profitable, according to the authors.
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Article #19-14829: "Climate change and the opportunity cost of conflict," by Kevin R. Roche, Michèle Müller-Itten, David N. Dralle, Diogo Bolster, and Marc F. Müller.
MEDIA CONTACT: Michèle Müller-Itten, University of Notre Dame, IN; email: < mmulleri@nd.edu >
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences