Articles tagged with Elections
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A study at Aalto University aims to reduce societal polarization by connecting people with opposing views on Twitter. The algorithm suggests bridges between users of opposing sides, such as Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, to provide recommendations about who to retweet.
A recent study published in Science found that polling data is a reliable predictor of election outcomes around the world. The research used global polling data to predict up to 90% of election outcomes, including 10 out of 11 elections in Latin America.
A new study by Northeastern University found that national election polls remain a strong indicator of election outcomes globally. The researchers' statistical models correctly predicted up to 90% of direct executive elections across the world.
This special issue of Science explores advances in forecasting policy, political violence, human behavior, and election predictions. Researchers unveil a modeling technique that can predict election outcomes with high accuracy, finding strong correlations between polling data and presidential election results.
While wait times varied between states, improvements were noted in South Carolina, Virginia, and Maryland, with Florida seeing "tremendous improvement". However, some states still have a long way to go before wait times are within acceptable limits, and disparities persist between black and white voters.
A recent study by Michigan State University researchers suggests that rising income inequality is the primary driver of satisfaction with democracy, not who wins elections. The study found a widening gap in satisfaction between electoral winners and losers as income inequality increases.
A recent study found that 19% of Twitter election-related tweets were created by social robots, distorting the online discussion and potentially polarizing it. The research also highlighted the sophisticated tactics used by 'master puppeteers' to create fake profiles and manipulate public opinion.
Researchers Philip Kortum and Michael D. Byrne examine how voting interface design affects voter behavior, revealing potential for errors and flawed designs. Poor interfaces can lead to ambiguous ballots, unintended vote selection, and nullified votes.
Research by Iowa State University professor Tessa Ditonto found that women candidates who are perceived as competent can win elections just like men. However, voters are more forgiving of men who appear incompetent. The study suggests that women should focus on their qualifications and policies to overcome gender stereotypes.
A Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health analysis found that Republican and Democratic voters have vastly different views on future health policy issues, influencing potential policy changes. The study suggests that party control will heavily impact future policies, including the Affordable Care Act.
A bipartisan probe into peer-review process and climate change research is chilling scientific pursuits, with over 2,000 scientists signing a letter urging an end to the probes. The investigation's scope has sparked concerns that it may protect oil companies and suppress science.
A Harvard University study predicts that climate change will lead to more frequent political party turnovers and increased focus on short-term policies, potentially hindering long-run climate mitigation strategies.
Researchers found that voters perceive enhanced security measures as more secure than systems with fake security elements. Participants also reported increased confidence in the voting system when it included robust security features.
Researchers propose a new model predicting voter choice that prioritizes identity over policy issues. This approach aims to improve election outcomes predictions by considering how voters' personal identities influence their voting decisions.
A new study finds that outside donors are playing a large role in school board elections, often supporting reform-minded candidates over those backed by teacher unions. This trend suggests that local democracy may be influenced by national education reform groups and wealthy donors with differing views on education policy.
A study found that potential voters view presidential candidates with high-intensity emotional language as more 'presidential' in dire economic conditions, while those who think the economy is fine prefer calmer language. Low-intensity language generally enhances perceptions of trustworthiness.
A new study finds that Republican and Democratic presidential candidates rarely respond to swing voters' views on key issues. Despite the importance of moderate middle ground in election campaigns, candidates typically take stances closer to those of their core supporters or extreme subsets of 'intense policy demanders'.
A new study finds that campaign visits have limited impact on voters, but consume significant resources. The study suggests that candidates should focus on other strategies, such as advertising and voter contact, to influence voters.
A new report by Advancement Project and the University of California, Riverside reveals stark racial disparities in political participation in California. The study finds that people of color make up the majority of the state's population but face significant barriers to engaging in democracy, including lower rates of voter turnout, co...
Research by Mirta Galesic and colleagues suggests that moderately-sized groups of experts can make wiser choices than larger crowds in qualitative decisions. Smaller groups, around five to seven members, are likely to outperform larger ones in situations such as medical diagnoses or election forecasts.
The next WHO director general must establish a well-coordinated system for preventing and responding to outbreaks, strengthen accountability mechanisms, and engage private sector foundations during public health emergencies. This is according to experts' analysis of key questions for prospective candidates.
Researchers found that US candidates' faces were more associated with competence, while those from Taiwan were linked to social competence. In the study, Taiwanese participants voted for candidates judged high in social competence and trustworthiness, whereas US participants preferred faces deemed competent.
A study published in Springer's journal Quantitative Marketing and Economics found that the Electoral College system increases advertising spending in typical presidential elections. The researchers modeled voters' decisions using a simple aggregate market share model and found that advertising would be spread more evenly across states...
A recent study by University of Georgia researchers found that national party division and divisive state primaries significantly impact general election outcomes. In the current election cycle, a divided Republican Party could lose up to 4.5% of the general election vote, compared to a unified party.
A new University of Michigan study finds that voting restrictions are actually increasing voter turnout among Democrats, who become angrier about the laws' impact on minority voters. The study reveals that media frames about voter ID laws trigger powerful emotions in Democrats, leading to increased participation.
A UMD-led team has solved the Colonel Blotto game theory scenario, a two-party conflict used to analyze election outcomes. The new algorithm can help political strategists and business leaders make better decisions by computing the best resource investment strategy for any competitor.
A study by the University of Sussex and Queen Mary University of London found that many supporters of main parties identify as more left-wing than they think, with a mismatch between subjective and objective measures. The research suggests that the UK's political center ground may be further to the left than previously thought.
Researchers at Harvard Medical School found that elected leaders live 2.7 years less and face a 23% greater risk of death compared to runners-up. This suggests the stress of governing accelerates mortality for politicians.
A study found that politicians elected as heads of government face a higher risk of early death compared to runner-up candidates. In contrast, the general population in the UK has seen a 37% lower mortality rate over the past 65 years.
Researchers Dr. Harold Clarke and Dr. Karl Ho are studying voter behavior in Hong Kong elections, examining attitudes toward electoral democracy and factors that influence voting decisions. The study aims to understand the impact of class, generation, immigration status, and political affinity on voters' choices.
A Baylor University study found that changing labor laws could lessen political participation by teachers and other public employees, traditionally a key group in Democratic Party conventions. The shift could affect the distribution of political power across society, including in the 2016 elections.
Researchers used TV viewing data from 99 programs with predictive accuracies over 59% and three that predicted outcomes above 79%. The model forecasts election outcomes at the state and county levels, providing insights into key drivers of election results. The study's findings suggest a potential application to future elections.
Researchers found that arguments based on a political opponent's moral principles have a better chance of success in winning them over. The study suggests using purity-based arguments can help bridge gaps between liberals and conservatives, increasing support for universal healthcare and same-sex marriage.
A Duke University study found that assigning public schools failing grades leads to increased turnout among affluent voters, but has little impact on low-income families. The research suggests that providing citizens with information about school performance does not necessarily address imbalances in civic engagement.
The study found that political marketing used hashtags and mentioned candidates by username, while citizens commented on news and gave opinions during debates. Citizens' conversations were more dismissive and influenced by campaign controversies.
University of Cincinnati researchers have developed a new method to measure the influence of Biblical interpretation on political attitudes, providing more nuanced insights into religion's impact on politics. The study found that respondents' opinions about biblical error were the strongest predictor of political conservatism.
A new study by Michigan State University researcher Arend Hintze found that moderate competition optimally drives the evolution of decision-making strategies in humans. In crowded areas, hermit crabs evolve split-second decision-making to claim new shells, demonstrating a similar phenomenon in human politics.
A University of Cincinnati study found that black voters are more likely to support black Democratic candidates, but may consider voting for a Republican candidate if they know the candidate's party affiliation. The study suggests that building a Republican coalition with black voters is challenging due to ongoing racial and partisan t...
A study by Indiana University doctoral student Adam Nicholson examined county-level voter turnout in Indiana and Nebraska/Pennsylvania without voter ID laws. Turnout declined in counties with high elderly populations, but the overall effect of the law on large numbers of voters remains uncertain.
Healthcare is a major responsibility of Canada's federal government, which must be addressed in the upcoming election. The system has struggled with quality rankings and access to primary care, mental health services, and new treatments.
Researchers found that candidates with lower-pitched voices generally win elections, particularly against female opponents. However, the preference for leaders with lower voices also correlates with perceptions of strength and competence.
A study found that voters naturally prefer leaders with lower-pitched voices, associating them with strength and competence rather than age. The researchers suggest this preference may stem from caveman instincts linking leadership ability to physical strength.
The current sequential election system results in the highest probability that the Condorcet winner is elected and the highest expected quality of the nominee. Sequential primaries allow voters to narrow down the field of contenders, avoiding vote-splitting among similar candidates.
A statistical analysis of poll performance in battleground states over the last three presidential elections shows polling firms produced estimates that were fairly accurate in 2004 and 2008, but underestimated support for President Obama in 2012. The authors attribute this to outdated sampling methodology that excluded cellphone-only ...
Researchers found that pre-election polls can influence voter behavior, leading to biased electoral results. A study on French elections showed that exit polls influenced voters in territories, resulting in higher turnout and a 'bandwagon effect'. This insight suggests that polling errors can sway election outcomes, even in the UK.
A study found that most partisans prioritize winning elections over policy or ideological goals, leading to increased partisan hostility and uncivil attitudes. The researchers analyzed survey data from the 2010 Cooperative Congressional Election Study and found that loyalty to the party is a primary motivator for many partisans.
A study by MIT economists found that increasing female candidates on electoral lists improves a party's chances of winning votes. Voter turnout did not diminish in response to more female candidates, suggesting internal party dynamics may be the main barrier to women's representation.
Experts analyze data from a national survey to question the feasibility of party promises on accessing general practice. The analysis highlights that guarantees of appointments within 48 hours may be unrealistic, and recruiting 5,000 more GPs could prove challenging.
A study by Ohio State University found that constituents who participated in online town halls with their representatives were more likely to agree with the legislator on important policy issues. These constituents also showed higher levels of trust and approval for their elected official, as well as increased voting intention.
Academics from the University of Bristol's Intelligent Systems Laboratory used big data to analyze mass media coverage of the 2012 US presidential election. The study found that the media focused more frequently on positive statements about the Democrats, while the Republicans were often portrayed in a negative light. Key issues covere...
Nate Silver will receive the 2015 JPBM Communications Award for his innovative use of statistics and probability to make accurate predictions in various fields, including politics and baseball. The award recognizes his ability to communicate complex mathematical concepts to a broad audience.
A Pitt study published in the American Journal of Political Science found that women are more 'election averse' than men, volunteering to lead groups but less likely to compete in elections. Women's lower willingness to run for office is attributed to factors such as election costs and the potential for negative campaigns.
The NHS has seen its annual spend on management consultancy double from £313m to £640m between 2010 and 2014. This significant increase in spending raises concerns about the value and impact of such services, with critics arguing that consultants are not accountable for their advice.
Two design competition winners, Intuitive Company and Georgia Tech Student Chapter, received recognition for their innovative solutions to improve the voting process. Their prototypes include smartphone apps to inform voters and train election volunteers, as well as a web-based platform to streamline the voting experience.
A recent analysis of public opinion polls reveals a deep partisan divide over the Affordable Care Act, with Republicans wanting to repeal or scale it back and Democrats pushing for its implementation. Despite millions of newly insured Americans, public approval of the ACA has not improved since its enactment four years ago.
A new study from the University of British Columbia found that black Republicans have the most faith in the US government, even when party lines are factored in. This suggests a unique level of confidence in the political system among this group, despite being a minority within the Republican Party.
A mathematical model developed by Duke University researchers shows how changes in North Carolina's congressional voting districts could affect election outcomes. The study found that re-ran elections with tweaked district boundaries resulted in drastically different seat splits, highlighting the need for redistricting reform.
A team of Rice University engineers and social scientists has developed a new electronic voting system that aims to be both secure and easy to use. The STAR (Secure, Transparent, Auditable and Reliable) system is designed to address the looming crisis facing elections officials nationwide as they replace aging voting systems.
Researchers used neural recordings to predict when a rat would give up waiting for a delayed tone. The findings suggest that individual brain cells cast votes for actions, but the outcome is not predetermined.
A surge in anonymous 'dark money' is pouring into US midterm election TV ads, with conservative groups leading the pack. According to a WSU researcher, $68 million has been spent on TV ads by special interest groups, including Americans for Prosperity and Crossroads GPS.