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Science News for September 13, 2020


Scientists explore the potential for further improvements to tropical cyclone track forecasts

Researchers found that true forecast track error increases exponentially with lead time, implying dynamics of TC motions are linear and model-induced errors in TC position forecasts are minimal. The team's 4-parameter error model indicates potential extension of predictability limit beyond 6/8 days in 10/30 years' time.

SourceInstitute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences·JournalBulletin of the American Meteorological Society·DateSep 13, 2020