Parkinson’s disease is a progressive neurological disorder that affects movement, cognition, and daily functioning. As China’s population ages, both the number of people living with the disease and the need for long-term care are expected to grow. Previous studies in China have largely focused on direct medical spending or short-term costs borne by patients and families. Much less is known about how Parkinson’s disease may affect regional macroeconomic growth over time.
To address this gap, a new study published in Science Bulletin evaluated the long-term economic burden of Parkinson’s disease across 31 mainland provinces from 2020 to 2040. A research team led by Dr. Maigeng Zhou from the National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention at the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, in collaboration with Prof. Simiao Chen from Heidelberg University and Peking Union Medical College, combined multiple data sources within a health-augmented macroeconomic model (HMM) to trace how the disease affects the wider economy.
The model captures several linked impact pathways that traditional cost-of-illness studies usually treat separately or overlook. Deaths caused by Parkinson’s disease directly reduce the size of the labor force. Among surviving patients, disability can lead to earlier retirement, lower labor force participation, increased absenteeism, fewer working hours, and reduced productivity, altogether weakening human capital accumulation. Furthermore, treatment expenditures divert household and social resources away from savings and productive investment in areas such as education and infrastructure, thereby slowing physical capital accumulation. Lower labor supply and weaker productivity further reduce GDP, leaving less income available for saving and investment. By modeling these cumulative effects, the HMM estimates changes in long-term economic output rather than simply adding up medical expenses and short-term productivity losses.
The study estimated that Parkinson’s disease could cause a cumulative macroeconomic loss of about 473 billion CNY between 2020 and 2040 (in constant 2024 prices), equal to around 0.017 percent of China’s projected GDP over the period and 329 CNY per person (Fig. 1).
The burden varied considerably across provinces. Jiangsu had the largest projected loss at about 42 billion yuan, followed by Guangdong at 36 billion yuan and Shandong at 35 billion yuan. Heilongjiang faced the highest burden relative to provincial GDP at 0.029 percent, while Shanghai recorded the highest per capita burden at 868 yuan. Notably, in most provinces, slower physical capital accumulation accounted for a larger share of the loss than reduced labor supply. Provinces with more disability-adjusted life years also tended to face greater economic losses, although the relationship differed according to local economic conditions and health-care utilization.
The researchers emphasized that policy response should be tailored to regional need. Areas with limited neurological services may benefit most from earlier recognition, reliable access to essential medicines, stronger referral systems, and better continuity of care. Economically developed provinces with large absolute losses may need to focus on preventing disability, improving advanced disease management, expanding rehabilitation, and optimizing specialist services. A regional approach reflecting local disease burden, economic capacity, and health-care resources could reduce both the health effects of Parkinson’s disease and its longer-term economic consequences.
Science Bulletin
Computational simulation/modeling