The Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) is a significant contributor to global sea-level rise. Since March 2002, the GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) mission and its successor GRACE-FO (GRACE Follow-On), have provided unique observations for tracking the mass redistribution over the AIS.
Multiple previous studies have demonstrated that the AIS has experienced sustained overall mass loss with distinct spatial patterns - showing severe mass depletion in West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula, while East Antarctic glaciers have remained relatively stable. However, a recent study by Dr. Wang and Prof. Shen et al. at Tongji University reveals a record-breaking increase in the overall mass of the AIS between 2021 and 2023. Moreover, four key glaciers in Wilkes Land-Queen Mary Land (WL-QML), East Antarctica, have shifted from accelerated mass loss during 2011-2020 to significant mass gain for 2021 - 2023.
Record-breaking mass gain over the Antarctic Ice Sheet
From 2002 to 2010, the AIS has experienced a mass loss with a change rate of –73.79±56.27 Gt/yr, which nearly doubled to –142.06±56.12 Gt/yr for the period 2011–2020. This accelerated mass loss was primarily related to intensified mass depletion in West Antarctica and the WL-QML region of East Antarctica. However, a significant reversal occurred thereafter—driven by anomalous precipitation accumulation, the AIS gained mass at a rate of 107.79±74.90 Gt/yr between 2021 and 2023.
Correspondingly, the contribution of mass change over the AIS to global mean sea level rise was 0.20±0.16 mm/yr during 2002–2010 and 0.39±0.15 mm/yr during 2011–2020. In contrast, during 2021–2023, it exerted a negative contribution, offsetting global mean sea level rise at a rate of 0.30±0.21 mm/yr.
Enhanced mass loss of the Totten, Moscow, Denman, and Vincennes Bay glacier basins, East Antarctica
The four key glacier basins in WL-QML region, i.e., Totten, Moscow University, Denman, and Vincennes Bay, exhibited mass loss intensification with a rate of 47.64±8.14 Gt/yr during 2011-2020, compared to 2002-2010, with the loss area expanding inland. The researchers explained “this accelerated mass loss was primarily driven by two factors: surface mass reduction (contributing 72.53%) and increased ice discharge (27.47%)”.
Notably, the complete disintegration of these four glaciers could potentially trigger a global mean sea level rise exceeding 7 meters. Their pronounced ablation patterns already constitute a critical climate warning signal, warranting greater scientific attention to their stability.
See the article:
Wang W, Shen Y, Chen Q, Wang F, Yu Y. 2025. Spatiotemporal mass change rate analysis from 2002 to 2023 over the Antarctic Ice Sheet and four glacier basins in Wilkes-Queen Mary Land. Science China Earth Sciences , 68(4): 1086–1099, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-024-1517-1
Science China Earth Sciences