A model of influenza transmission suggests that total replacement of current seasonal influenza vaccines with universal vaccines could avert more than 19,000 deaths and save $3.5 billion in health care costs per year, which exceeds the cost of development of such a vaccine. Influenza results in an average of 28.41 million cases and 40,500 deaths, with current seasonal vaccines averaging only 44% effectiveness due to high virus evolution rate and a 6-month lag between vaccine formulation and onset of the flu season. Burton H. Singer, Pratha Sah, and colleagues developed a mathematical model of influenza transmission to simulate the results of the introduction of a universal flu vaccine with an efficacy rate of 75%. The authors report that replacing 10% of seasonal vaccines with universal vaccines would avert around 5.3 million cases and 6,300 deaths per year. Full implementation of the vaccine could prevent 17 million cases, 251,000 hospitalizations, 19,500 deaths and $3.5 billion in health care costs per year. States with high hospitalization costs and elderly population would experience the greatest economic benefits from such a vaccine. According to the authors, the benefits of a universal vaccine justify funds allocated or proposed toward its development.
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Article #19-09613: "Future epidemiological and economic impacts of universal influenza vaccines," by Pratha Sah et al.
MEDIA CONTACTS: Pratha Sah, Yale University, New Haven, CT; e-mail: pratha.sah@yale.edu ; Alison Galvani, Yale University, New Haven, CT; e-mail: alison.galvani@gmail.com
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences