A 2022 survey of Palestinians and Israelis identifies a set of peace deals that would be preferable to the status quo for majorities on both sides of the conflict.
Between March and May of 2022, Elisa Cavatorta and colleagues asked nationally representative samples of 1,197 Palestinians and 679 Israelis to rank hypothetical peace agreements. Each agreement consisted of eight components, varied in a controlled manner. This methodology enabled the calculation of the strength of preference for each component and the overall acceptability of 256 potential agreements compared to the then-status quo. The study identified 55 peace agreements as mutually preferable to the status quo, forming a Zone of Possible Agreements (ZOPA). As expected, Palestinians and Israelis demonstrated divergent priorities, reflected in both different preferences for the status quo, different rankings and often, though not always, opposing preferences for the eight components. The status quo was ranked last among the options for 17% of Israelis and 41% of Palestinians. Israelis prioritized recognition of Israel as a nation-state for the Jewish people, while Palestinians emphasized halting settlement expansions. Mutually supported agreements did not necessarily include the highest priorities for both parties, but highlighted areas of potential agreement. These agreements focused on practical improvements to daily life, including the recognition of Israel, freedom of movement, mutual access to holy sites, and mutual prisoner release. Women and older respondents displayed a greater willingness to compromise than men and younger respondents. The study provides a snapshot of preferences as of 2022. Additional findings suggest that exposure to violence reduces willingness to compromise, particularly among Israelis. According to the authors, these results emphasize the critical need for an immediate cessation of hostilities and release of all hostages to facilitate progress.
PNAS Nexus
Revealing the zone of possible agreement between parties in conflict: An application to Israeli-Palestinian peace agreements
21-Jan-2025