Mpox (formerly Monkeypox), a viral zoonotic disease, remains a global public health concern because it can spread between animals and humans and among people. While measures like vaccination, treatment, quarantine, and public education are available, combining them strategically and allocating resources during an outbreak can be challenging. Researchers from Hasanuddin University, Indonesia, led by Professor Kasbawati from the Department of Mathematics, have used mathematical modeling to explore how different interventions could work together to limit Mpox transmission. Their work was made available online on March 26, 2026, and was published in Volume 208 of the journal Chaos, Solitons & Fractals on July 1, 2026.
The researchers developed a mathematical model that captures Mpox transmission dynamics across two interacting populations: humans and rodents. The human population was divided into nine groups representing various stages or conditions of infection, while the rodent population was divided into three groups. The model also included asymptomatic infections in humans and latent infections in rodents to capture additional pathways of transmission.
“For this model, we considered asymptomatic infections in humans and latent infection in rodents, which allowed us to examine transmission pathways that may otherwise be overlooked. While previous modeling studies have often focused on a smaller number of interventions or simplified transmission patterns, this framework was designed to assess the combined effects of multiple measures,” explains Prof. Kasbawati.
The researchers simulated different combinations of four interventions: vaccination, treatment, quarantine, and educational campaigns. Vaccination was modeled to reduce susceptibility to infection, while treatment supported recovery and reduced the disease impact. Quarantine was used to reduce infectious contacts, and educational campaigns were included to encourage protective behaviors.
Among the scenarios tested, the full-control strategy combining all four interventions produced the greatest reduction in infections. Simulations showed a 97.85% reduction in the total number of infected human population compared with the scenario without intervention. The combined strategy also emerged as the most cost-effective option among those tested.
Importantly, the model showed that different interventions may have greater value at different stages of an outbreak. Quarantine and educational campaigns were applied intensively during the early phase, helping to rapidly suppress transmission. Vaccination and treatment were introduced from the beginning and maintained as pharmaceutical measures over the course of the simulated outbreak.
Notably, the analysis considered two important disease states. For the Mpox-free equilibrium, transmission does not persist in either the rodent or the human population. In the endemic equilibrium, the disease persists within both the populations. The results show that while human-to-human transmission plays a key role in short- and medium-term outbreaks, transmission associated with rodents can contribute to longer-term persistence. This suggests that rodents act as a continuous reservoir for Mpox, indicating that animal populations should be accounted for when developing long-term strategies for Mpox management.
These findings will underscore the importance of looking beyond human-to-human transmission when addressing zoonotic diseases such as Mpox. By incorporating both human and rodent populations, the model provides a framework for examining how cross-species transmission could influence the disease’s longer-term dynamics, supporting a One Health approach to disease prevention.
By exploring strategies to reduce the transmission and long-term persistence of Mpox and support effective outbreak control, the research aligns most closely with United Nations Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3 (Good Health and Well-being). It also speaks to SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals), as effective control of zoonotic diseases requires coordinated action across public health, healthcare, and animal-health systems.
Prof. Kasbawati highlights, “Mpox control can benefit from a coordinated, multi-layered response rather than reliance on a single intervention. Following this approach, public health authorities can mitigate immediate transmission while also supporting longer-term disease control.”
Being based on mathematical simulations rather than observation from a real-world intervention program, further research using real-world epidemiological data and intervention outcomes can help validate and refine the model. Future studies could also explore measures targeting rodent populations that may contribute to persistent transmission.
Overall, the study provides a modeling-based framework for understanding how different public health measures can complement one another. Combining interventions that prevent infection, interrupt transmission, support recovery, and encourage protective behavior, offers a more coordinated and evidence-based approach to reduce Mpox transmission, along with public health preparedness.
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Reference
Title of original paper: A mathematical analysis of Mpox transmission with integrated control strategies in public health
Journal: Chaos, Solitons & Fractals
DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2026.118269
About Hasanuddin University, Indonesia
Hasanuddin University (Universitas Hasanuddin or Unhas) is one of Indonesia’s largest autonomous universities, located in Makassar. Established on September 10, 1956, and named after Sultan Hasanuddin of the Gowa Kingdom, the university has grown into a major center for higher education with 18 faculties, including medicine, engineering, law, agriculture, and natural sciences. Its origins date back to 1947 with an economics faculty linked to the University of Indonesia. Today, Unhas focuses on advancing science, technology, arts, and culture, with a strong emphasis on the Indonesian Maritime Continent, aiming to develop innovative and globally competitive graduates.
Learn more, here: https://www.unhas.ac.id/about/
About Professor Kasbawati from Hasanuddin University, Indonesia
Dr. Kasbawati is a Professor in the Department of Mathematics at Hasanuddin University, Indonesia. Her research focuses on applied mathematics, particularly mathematical modeling of biological systems, metabolic systems, and infectious diseases. Her work applies mathematical modeling, analysis, and simulation to understand complex biological processes and address public health challenges. She has contributed to research on mathematical epidemiology, as well as biological and metabolic systems. Her research emphasizes using mathematical approaches to support understanding of disease dynamics and intervention strategies. She has contributed to over 150 publications till date.
Funding information
This research received financial support from the Directorate General of Research and Development, Ministry of Higher Education, Science, and Technology, Indonesia through the Research and Community Service Program, Fiscal Year 2025, under the Master’s Thesis Research scheme with Grant Number 02209/UN4.22/PT.01.03/2025.
Chaos Solitons & Fractals
Computational simulation/modeling
Not applicable
A mathematical analysis of Mpox transmission with integrated control strategies in public health
1-Jul-2026
The authors declare that there are no competing interests that could have influenced the content or outcome of this research.