A study suggests that olive quick decline syndrome could take a huge economic toll over the next 50 years in Greece, Italy, and Spain. The bacterial plant pathogen Xylella fastidiosa subsp. pauca is spread by insects and causes the death of infected olive trees. To determine the economic impact of the bacterial strain, Kevin Schneider and colleagues developed a bioeconomic model of the pathogen's future spread and impact. Factoring in economics of different cultivation systems in each of the three countries, the authors modeled economic losses under a scenario in which all growing ceased due to tree death, compared with a scenario in which replanting with resistant varieties occurred. The authors report that in Italy, for example, cessation of production after orchard die-off would result in an economic impact of up to 5.2 billion Euros, and replanting orchards with resistant varieties can lower the impact to around 1.6 billion Euros. The authors modeled a radial spread based on the distribution of olive orchards from land cover data and found that slowing the spread with measures such as removal of infected plants could save up to 1.3 billion Euros. The findings underscore the potential economic impacts of a major bacterial pathogen of olive trees, according to the authors.
ARTICLE #19-12206: "Impact of Xylella fastidiosa subspecies pauca in European olives," by Kevin Schneider et al.
MEDIA CONTACT: Kevin Schneider, Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen, NETHERLANDS; e-mail: kevin.schneider@wur.nl
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Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences