A study examines the frequency of unexpected ocean temperatures and compares adaptation strategies. As the planet continues to warm, ecosystems and human communities are expected to adapt. However, it is unclear whether such adjustments will keep pace as trends associated with climate changes accelerate. Andrew J. Pershing and colleagues examined the frequency of surprising ocean temperatures, defined as annual mean temperatures that are two standard deviations above the mean of the previous 3 decades, on 65 large marine ecosystems (LMEs) from 1854 through 2018. The number of surprising LMEs increased with global warming, especially after 1998. The authors predicted that surprising temperatures are likely to reduce the diversity and productivity of marine ecosystems. The authors compared two strategies for making decisions about the ocean, such as establishing fishing quotas: one strategy assumed historical conditions and another strategy accounted for possible future trends. The authors identified the forward-looking strategy as more advantageous for adaptation. The results suggest that many LMEs are experiencing a high rate of warming, and extreme ocean temperatures will continue to rise. These conditions are likely to push LMEs to their adaptation limits and require forward-looking strategies for adaptation, according to the authors.
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Article #19-01084: "Challenges to natural and human communities from surprising ocean temperatures," by Andrew J. Pershing et al.
MEDIA CONTACT: Elijah Miller, Gulf of Maine Research Institute, Portland, ME; tel: 207-228-1667; email: < emiller@gmri.org >; Andrew J. Pershing, Gulf of Maine Research Institute, Portland, ME; tel: 207-228-1656; email: < apershing@gmri.org >
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences