Forest damage in Europe caused by wildfires, storms and bark beetle outbreaks is projected to increase compared to recent decades under all analysed climate scenarios, according to a new international study, published in the scientific journal Science , with contributions from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK).
Even in a scenario with warming limited to roughly 2°C, annually disturbed forest area could rise from about 180,000 to roughly 216,000 hectares per year by the end of the century, compared to the already unprecedented levels of disturbances from 1986 to 2020. In a scenario in which fossil fuel use continues to increase, annually disturbed forest area could double, reaching nearly 370,000 hectares per year by the end of the century.
“In the future, Europe’s forests are likely to absorb less carbon,” says Christopher Reyer, scientist at PIK and co-author of the study. “If forests take up less carbon, or potentially even release more than they absorb, this increases pressure on other sectors such as transport and agriculture to reduce their emissions more rapidly. At the same time, forest management needs to focus more strongly on building resilient forests.”
According to the study, forests in Southern and Western Europe will be particularly affected and will undergo the strongest changes in forest disturbance. Northern Europe is expected to be less severely impacted overall, though hotspots of future forest damage are also likely to emerge there. The study was led by researchers at the Technical University of Munich (TUM).
Article: Grünig, M., Rammer, W., Senf, C., Albrich, K., André, F., Augustynczik, A.L.D., Baumann, M., Bohn, F.J., Bouwman, M., Bugmann, H., Collalti, A., Cristal, I., Dalmonech, D., De Coligny, F., Dobor, L., Dollinger, C., Espelta, J.M., Forrester, D.I., Garcia-Gonzalo, J., González-Olabarria, J.R., Hiltner, U., Hlásny, T., Honkaniemi, J., Huber, N., Jonard, M., Jönsson, A.M., Kunstler, G., Lagergren, F., Lindner, M., Mina, M., Moos, C., Morin, X., Muys, B., Nabuurs, G.-J., Nieberg, M., Patacca, M., Peltoniemi, M., Reyer, C.P.O., Schelhaas, M.-J.; Storms, I., Thom, D., Toigo, M., Seidl, R. (2026): Climate change will increase forest disturbances in Europe throughout the 21st century. Science. [DOI: 10.1126/science.adx6329]
Link to the article, once published : 10.1126/science.adx6329
Science
Computational simulation/modeling
Climate change will increase forest disturbances in Europe throughout the 21st century
5-Mar-2026