URBANA, Ill. — A new analysis from the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign and the Illinois Soybean Association finds that Illinois corn and soybean farmers could lose up to $609 million per year — representing a 3.6% revenue loss — if the state banned the weedkiller glyphosate.
The estimate represents a realistic scenario in which farmers would replace glyphosate with more expensive and slightly less effective herbicide products, and accounts for modest yield losses. But the study’s authors say any yield loss, even equating to just 3.6% of a farmer’s bottom line, would be hard to bear.
“I don't know of any farmer who wants to take a revenue loss by any stretch of the imagination, and especially when we've got such tight margins right now,” said study co-author Aaron Hager , professor and faculty Extension specialist in the Department of Crop Sciences , part of the College of Agricultural, Consumer and Environmental Sciences at Illinois. “Profits have been projected to be negative again this year for a lot of Illinois farmers, many of which may be on the verge of not being able to survive.”
The researchers became curious about economic impacts after glyphosate bans were introduced in past Illinois legislative sessions. Considering increasing public attention and court cases related to glyphosate, they recognized that another ban could be proposed at any time. Meanwhile, multiple other pesticide bans were proposed in Illinois earlier this year. The researchers say their analysis methods could be applied to other chemicals.
“We actually discussed studying several different chemicals initially and landed on glyphosate,” said study co-author Corey Lacey , environmental policy manager at the Illinois Soybean Association. “We chose it because a glyphosate ban would probably have the biggest impact on farmers since it is one of the most used crop protection tools by corn and soybean farmers in Illinois. So a glyphosate ban is something that we really have to talk about and put some real numbers to.”
Estimating the loss
Lead author Sandy Dall’erba , founding director of CREATE (the center for Climate, Regional, Environmental And Trade Economics) and professor in the Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics in ACES, took a quantitative approach to the analysis.
He started by tallying the total usage and expenditures related to glyphosate in the state. To calculate potential revenue impacts under a ban, he relied on published estimates of corn and soybean yield losses with decreased glyphosate use. Then he considered alternative herbicides, measured their higher cost and lesser efficiency, and estimated the price increase these new options would experience in the event of a glyphosate ban.
The results indicate that Illinois corn and soybean farmers could lose $300 to $609 million per year, representing a 1.8 to 3.6% revenue loss.
What’s missing
The analysis paints a picture of economic hardship for Illinois farmers, but the researchers acknowledge that it does not represent every consequence of a hypothetical glyphosate ban. For example, it doesn’t capture the potential human health and environmental impacts of shelving glyphosate, nor indirect costs related to using other crop protection tools.
“Our analysis is somewhat partial in the sense that it is only looking at one aspect — the economic impacts on the farmer. A complete assessment would also need to consider effects on the agrifood supply chain, public tax revenues, human health, and the environment before weighing the overall costs and benefits of a glyphosate ban,” Dall’erba said.
Glyphosate is a key element in conservation tillage, used as the burn-down herbicide to remove standing vegetation before planting. Without it, fuel costs — and their associated greenhouse gas emissions — would likely rise under a hypothetical glyphosate ban.
“Glyphosate allows farmers to adopt conservation practices like no-till on a scale that you can't accomplish in other ways,” Lacey said. “A glyphosate ban would likely result in more conventional tillage, which is going to have not just a conservation cost in terms of soil health and emissions, but a literal fuel cost since farmers would also be driving the tractor more in the field. That would lead to increased input costs that we didn't estimate here.”
Whatever the unaccounted impact, the researchers say it’s clear their initial estimates are only the tip of an iceberg.
“What this work shows is that there can be significant financial consequences for something that looks fairly simple on paper,” Hager said.
The study, “Understanding the systemic impacts of a glyphosate ban on Illinois agriculture: Economic, agronomic, and community perspectives,” is published in Weed Technology [DOI: 10.1017/wet.2026.10133 ].
Research in the College of ACES is made possible in part by Hatch funding from USDA’s National Institute of Food and Agriculture. This study was supported by the Illinois Soybean Association.
Weed Technology