Four months from Election Day, Orange County refuses to tip its hand.
A new survey , conducted by the UC Irvine School of Social Ecology and released today, finds the race for governor virtually tied and an electorate that is increasingly divided by generation and gender even as it converges on one defining demand: fix the cost of housing.
The UCI-OC Poll , fielded June 9-12 among 809 Orange County adults, once again captures a truly purple place — one-third Democrat, one-third Republican and one-third Independent.
“This leaves Democrats and Republicans scrambling to assemble winning coalitions from a fragmented political landscape,” says Jon B. Gould, poll director and dean of the School of Social Ecology.
Among likely voters, Republican Steve Hilton leads Democrat Xavier Becerra 47% to 44% — a margin well within the poll’s ±4.2-point error range. Hilton’s edge rests on a more unified GOP base: Republicans rally behind him at higher rates than Democrats do around Becerra, Gould notes.
Becerra runs strongest with the groups that are least likely to show up. He leads among Latino voters, Asian-American voters, women and Independents, yet these groups trail in reported certainty of voting, according to the survey. Only about half of Independents say they are absolutely certain to cast a ballot in November, compared to roughly three-quarters of Republicans and Democrats.
“The November outcome may hinge less on which candidate voters prefer than on which voters actually cast a ballot,” Gould says.
The cost of housing is not just a top concern in Orange County — it is a defining issue of the 2026 campaign. Sixty-one percent of OC residents name it as one of the top issues facing California, well ahead of homelessness (46%), gas prices (46%), and taxes and government spending (40%). When asked to identify the single most important issue, 37% choose housing — nearly double the next closest issue and four times the share citing immigration.
“What makes housing remarkable is how broadly it cuts across political and demographic divides,” Gould says. “It is the top issue for Democrats, Independents and Republicans alike, though Republicans give additional weight to taxes and immigration. It tops the list across every racial and ethnic group surveyed.”
For the first time in the UCI-OC Poll’s history, Independents have pulled even with Democrats as the county’s largest political bloc, with Republicans virtually tied.
Orange County residents now identify as 34% Democrat, 34% Independent or other, and 32% Republican — a near-perfect three-way split that mirrors the March 2026 survey and cements the county’s reputation as one of the most genuinely competitive in California.
The Independent surge is driven heavily by younger and nonwhite residents. Nearly half of Gen Z identify as Independent, as do 42% of Millennials. Among racial and ethnic groups, 44% of Asian-Americans and 39% of Latinos choose Independent over either major party — compared with just 22% of White residents, who remain the only racial group with a Republican plurality.
“These findings suggest that political independence has become an increasingly important feature of Orange County politics,” Gould says.
The poll finds the sharpest divide between generations. On nearly every question — President Donald Trump’s approval rating, the direction of the country, housing concerns, candidate preference — Gen Z and Baby Boomers stand at opposite ends, with Millennials and Gen X caught in between.
President Trump’s approval rating swings from 14% among Gen Z to 53% among Boomers. Yet only 45% of Gen Z say they are absolutely certain to vote in November, compared with 87% of Boomers.
Among voters who sat out the June primary, the most common explanations were forgetting, missing the registration deadline or feeling their vote wouldn’t matter — responses concentrated among younger and Independent residents.
In 2024, the UCI-OC Poll documented a rightward drift among Latino voters and a leftward shift among Asian-Americans. The 2026 data tells a different story: both groups are moving from the Democratic and Republican parties altogether.
Despite their growing independence, both groups still lean Democratic in head-to-head races, the poll points out. Latino likely voters back Becerra 54% to 37%. Asian-American likely voters support Becerra 50% to 41%.
But, the turnout gap complicates the picture: only about half of Latino residents and 59% of Asian-Americans say they are absolutely certain to vote in November, compared with 82% of White residents.
Among likely voters in the gubernatorial race, men back Hilton by 14 points; women support Becerra by 8 points. The same pattern holds on the congressional ballot: men favor the Republican candidate, women the Democrat.
The split extends to leadership approval. Men are more likely than women to approve of President Trump and less likely to approve of Gov. Gavin Newsom. But, unlike the generational divide, the gender gap does not extend to turnout: roughly two-thirds of men and women say they are absolutely certain to vote.
Orange County residents have told the UCI-OC Poll for three consecutive years that the United States is headed in the wrong direction. That verdict has barely budged: 65% said the nation was on the wrong track in 2023, 61% after the 2024 election, 62% in March, and 66% today. The share saying the country is on the right track has never reached a third of respondents.
California fares only slightly better in local eyes: 58% say the state is on the wrong track.
Orange County itself stands apart. Forty-two percent of residents say their county is headed in the right direction, a figure that has held relatively steady since 2023.
More remarkably, Gould notes, is that the level of local optimism is shared across party lines: 45% of Republicans and 47% of Democrats say OC is on the right track.
President Trump enters the fall campaign with a 35% approval rating and 62% disapproval in Orange County — figures virtually unchanged from the March 2026 UCI-OC Poll. Nearly half of all county residents strongly disapprove. His support is concentrated among Republicans and Boomers; his weakest groups include Independents, Gen Z and Latino residents.
Gov. Newsom fares comparably poorly with 38% approving and 54% disapproving.
“What this poll tells us is that Orange County residents are anxious,” Gould said. “Anxious about the cost of a home, skeptical of leaders at every level of government, and not persuaded that either party has earned its trust. The candidates who find a way to speak to that shared urgency, and who can actually bring their supporters to the polls in November will be in the strongest position to win one of the most genuinely competitive counties in the nation.”
The poll is funded by the Haynes Foundation. Read the full report of the latest survey on the UCI-OC Poll website or on ISSUU .