Research Highlights:
Embargoed until 4 a.m. CT/5 a.m. ET, Monday, Nov. 2, 2026
DALLAS, Nov. 2, 2026 — After nearly two decades of decline, valvular heart disease death rates have increased from 2018 to 2023 and are predicted to remain elevated through 2040, according to independent, new preliminary research to be presented at the American Heart Association’s Scientific Sessions 2026 . The meeting, Nov. 6-9, in Chicago, is a premier global exchange of the latest scientific advancements, research and evidence-based clinical practice updates in cardiovascular science.
Heart valve disease is an umbrella term for conditions that arise when any of the heart’s four valves — aortic, mitral, pulmonary or tricuspid — stop working properly. According to the American Heart Association’s 2026 Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics , more than 80 million people worldwide live with heart valve disease and the number is growing. In the U.S., heart valve disease contributes to more than 57,000 deaths each year.
“Heart valve disease is an increasingly important health concern as the U.S. population ages, but information has been limited on just how much specific populations are currently impacted and what trends are expected for the future,” said study author Hritvik Jain, M.D., a resident physician in internal medicine at Allegheny General Hospital in Pittsburgh. “Our study found that the decades-long decline in deaths from heart valve disease has stopped. As the U.S. population continues to age, we need to focus on earlier detection, timely treatment and equitable access to specialized valve care, particularly for the oldest adults and those living in rural communities.”
To learn more about the potential impact on the aging population, researchers analyzed death information from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER) resource, from 1999 to 2023, focused on U.S. adults ages 65 and older. They evaluated death rate trends, examined generational and age-related patterns and used statistical software to forecast death rates through 2040.
What are the key findings of the study?
“We also found that while death rates improved for newer generations in their late 60s, those gains did not continue into very old age. At age 85 and older, newer generations had higher death rates than earlier generations at the same age,” Jain said.
In 2020, the American Heart Association launched Target: Aortic Stenosis™ (Target: AS) to help improve outcomes for people living with the disease. The program supports earlier and more accurate diagnosis, timely treatment and ongoing disease management. It provides hospital care teams with tools and resources to deliver consistent, evidence-based care for patients with aortic stenosis. In addition, in 2025, the Association launched the Heart Valve Initiative , a comprehensive national effort to ensure individuals with heart valve disease are identified earlier, treated sooner and supported throughout their care journey.
“The recent reversal of progress in valvular heart disease mortality is especially alarming in light of the substantial advances in treatment achieved over the past decade and a half,” said Sreekanth Vemulapalli, M.D., a volunteer member of the American Heart Association’s Target: Aortic Stenosis Scientific Advisory Group, an associate professor of medicine at Duke University, a core faculty member at the Duke-Margolis Institute for Health Policy and a member of the Duke Clinical Research Institute. “This disconnect between therapeutic innovation and population-level outcomes highlights the critical need for the American Heart Association’s quality improvement and educational initiatives to improve awareness, care delivery and patient outcomes.”
What are the study details, background, design and limitations?
Co-authors and disclosures are listed in the abstract.
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