Key takeaways:
Federal transit funding doesn’t have the same effect everywhere: A University of Houston study found that each additional dollar of funding generated about one-third as much new ridership in the largest metropolitan areas as it did in small and midsize cities.
Smaller, growing transit systems may have more room to attract new riders: In many Sun Belt communities, adding a route or expanding service can give people an alternative to driving where few practical options existed before.
The findings could be useful as Congress considers future transit funding: The research suggests that policymakers should look at where additional investments are most likely to bring in new riders, while continuing to support large systems that already carry a significant share of the nation’s transit passengers.
Billions of federal dollars are invested in public transportation each year, but those investments may have bigger ridership gains in smaller and midsize transit systems, particularly in the South and West, rather than in the nation’s largest metropolitan areas, according to a new study co-authored by a University of Houston researcher. The findings come as Congress works on the next federal surface transportation bill.
"In the largest metropolitan areas, an additional dollar generates roughly one-third as much new ridership as it does in a small or midsize city,” reports Kailai Wang, assistant professor of Industrial and Systems Engineering, in the journal Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice. “The reasons are fairly intuitive; smaller transit systems often still have considerable room to grow.”
Despite its potential to reduce traffic congestion, lower emissions and provide affordable transportation, public transportation remains underused in the United States, with only 5% of commuters relying on it as of 2019.
The Federal Transit Administration currently distributes roughly $20 billion a year to help transit agencies expand fleets, maintain infrastructure and improve service. The study found that while all levels of government funding matter, federal funding has the biggest impact on transit growth, largely by fueling capital investment and fleet expansion, but the same dollar does not have the same effect everywhere.
A new route in a fast-growing Sun Belt city, for example, may give residents their first practical alternative to driving and can therefore attract new riders quickly. In cities such as New York and Chicago, the core transit networks are already extensive, so additional funding is more likely to strengthen existing service than to open entirely new travel opportunities.
Wang's study tracked 417 U.S. urbanized areas from 2010 to 2019, the decade before the pandemic, to better isolate the effects of transit funding without the unprecedented disruptions caused by COVID-19.
While the findings suggest that future federal investments may have greater impact on transit systems with room to grow, Wang says the findings don't suggest taking money away from or providing less support to large transit systems.
“The New York region alone carries a very large share of the nation’s transit trips, and maintaining those systems remains critically important,” he said.
Transportation Research Part A Policy and Practice
Public transit funding and transit use: a panel study of U.S. urbanized areas 2010–2019
17-Aug-2026