Tropical cyclones form in the tropics. But they do not stay there—and increasingly, they are not staying south.
A new study published in Advances in Atmospheric Science s finds that tropical cyclone activity and coastal hazard along East Asia have been shifting steadily northward. Using storm records from 1980 to 2025 across the western North Pacific, the world's most active tropical cyclone basin, researchers found fewer storms forming and making landfall at lower latitudes, and a growing share of activity farther north.
The shift is not a uniform increase in danger. It is a redistribution.
“The key message is not that every coast is facing more tropical cyclones,” said lead and corresponding author Jia Sun of the First Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources, China. “The geography of the danger is changing. Higher latitude communities are becoming more exposed as tropical cyclone activity and landfall likelihood shift northward.”
Landfall likelihood decreased south of 20°N but increased north of 30°N—broadly covering parts of eastern China, the Korean Peninsula, and Japan. The storms also tended to form farther northwest, follow more landward and poleward tracks, and move modestly faster, cutting the average time landfalling cyclones spent over the ocean from about 5.6 days in 1980–2015 to about 4.7 days in 2016–2025.
That shorter journey can matter for preparedness. A tropical cyclone that forms closer to land and moves toward the coast more quickly may leave less time for forecasting, emergency planning, and public response.
“Preparedness plans often rely heavily on past experience,” said co-corresponding author Guihua Wang of Fudan University. “Our results show why coastal risk assessments and early warning systems must also account for changing tropical cyclone routes and travel times, especially in northern East Asia.”
Importantly, the study did not find a significant long-term increase in the maximum strength reached by the tropical cyclones. This suggests that the changing pattern of danger is being driven mainly by where tropical cyclones travel and make landfall, not by a steady strengthening of the tropical cyclones themselves.
Changes in large-scale winds over the Pacific appear to help steer more storms westward, poleward, and toward land. However, the authors caution that the observed pattern reflects a combination of long-term climate change and natural climate swings. Separating these influences will require longer records and targeted climate model experiments.
For coastal communities, the practical lesson is clear: yesterday’s tropical cyclone map may not describe tomorrow's risk. Planning must consider not only how strong a tropical cyclone may become, but also where it is increasingly likely to go — and how much warning time it may leave as that risk moves steadily north..
Advances in Atmospheric Sciences
Poleward Redistribution of Tropical Cyclone Hazards over East Asia
16-Sep-2026