Articles tagged with Climate Modeling
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A new study finds that climate change will make the U.S. Corn Belt unsuitable for cultivating corn by 2100, highlighting the need for significant agricultural adaptations, diversification and a shift towards more sustainable farming practices.
A recent study led by Nagoya University found that human-made iron in the Southern Ocean may be up to ten times higher than previously thought, with a 60% contribution from fossil fuel combustion. This could lead to decreased photosynthesis and increased CO2 levels, exacerbating global warming.
New research reveals that low model horizontal resolution leads to discrepancies in simulated surface heat fluxes over the North Atlantic. Increasing resolution improves surface heat flux simulations and inferred heat transport, helping the research community better interpret historical simulations and projections.
Global warming is expected to destabilize Caribbean coral populations, leading to bleaching and extinction. Coral reefs support the seafood industry, coastal communities, and tourism, with a net economic value estimated in tens of billions of dollars.
A new study finds that climate change is projected to increase the risks of tree death in US forests by 4-14 times by 2099, depending on carbon emissions scenarios. Human actions to tackle climate change can significantly reduce these risks.
Researchers found tree growth not source-limited but rather by cell growth, suggesting forests may not absorb as much carbon as thought. The study's findings challenge current forest growth models and highlight the need for climate change mitigation strategies.
Latest climate models tend to overestimate future Afro-Asian summer monsoon (AfroASM) rainfall and runoff. By constraining biases, the rainfall increase is 70% of the raw projection.
A new study reveals that global warming will shift the timing of ocean plankton blooms, impacting the marine food web and potentially disrupting the delicate coupling between phytoplankton growth and zooplankton abundance. This change could have severe consequences for high-latitude regions.
The world's ocean is losing its year-to-year memory due to global warming, making it harder to predict ocean conditions. This decline in ocean memory will have significant impacts on fisheries management, population estimates, and land-based weather forecasts.
A new study reveals the most intense heatwaves ever recorded globally, exposing some extreme weather events that went largely underreported in the past. The research uses climate models to project an increase in heatwave intensity in line with rising global temperatures.
A study by Princeton University researchers predicts that unchecked global emissions will lead to a mass extinction of marine life, with tropical waters experiencing the greatest loss of biodiversity. The study found that reversing greenhouse gas emissions could reduce the risk of extinction by more than 70%.
A new study projects that climate change will more than double the frequency of intense tropical cyclones globally by 2050, increasing maximum wind speeds by up to 20%. This will disproportionately affect low-income countries and regions that are not currently prone to these events.
A team of scientists has developed a solution to accurately simulate how the atmosphere works by linking large- and small-scale simulations. This helps model winds, transport of pollutants, climate projections, and weather forecasts with greater accuracy.
Researchers predict widespread increases in flash flooding events across the US, with a predicted 10% increase in the Southwest and 8.6% in the central US. Climate change may lead to more frequent and intense flash floods, requiring improved infrastructure and early warning systems.
Research using a network model and air pollution data before and during COVID-19 outbreaks found that surrounding traffic conditions influenced air quality in certain cities. Pollution tended to peak in cities as they contained the virus, with some cities experiencing worse air quality than ever.
Research reveals that tropospheric ozone contributes more to the Southern Ocean's warming than previously thought. This finding highlights the importance of reducing air pollution to mitigate ocean heat uptake and climate change.
Researchers developed global forecasts that can provide up to a year's notice of marine heatwaves, which can dramatically affect ocean ecosystems. The forecasts help fishing fleets, ocean managers, and coastal communities anticipate the effects of marine heatwaves, reducing ecological and economic impacts.
Research suggests that expansion of vegetation in the Northern Hemisphere led to a significant warming of global temperatures between 6,000 and 9,000 years ago. The findings align with paleoclimate proxy records and challenge previous models' limitations in accounting for vegetation changes.
Human activity on Hainan Island is causing changes in the body shapes and diets of tropical birds, resulting in biotic homogenisation. Despite efforts to protect biodiversity, the island's unique ecosystem is being affected by large-scale economic and land-use changes.
Scientists have developed a new approach to predict pollution from cooking emissions by analyzing the behavior of oleic acid nanostructures. By identifying the molecular properties that control their transformation in the atmosphere, researchers can better understand and model the impact of cooking aerosols on human-made climate change.
A study of 2021's extreme weather events in China, the US, Canada, and Europe found a mix of natural and human-caused factors at play. The research highlights the need for real-time climate event attribution systems to better understand and adapt to climate change.
A new study by an international team of scientists links early human habitats to past climate shifts using a supercomputer model and fossil records. The research suggests that climate change played a central role in determining where different hominin groups lived and their remains were found.
Research by University of Washington reveals that ice shards in Southern Ocean clouds increase the amount of sunlight absorbed by the ocean's surface. The study found a significant impact on temperature, with differences of 10 Watts per square meter between models including and excluding ice formation.
A new study finds that while immediate economic benefits of carbon emissions reductions are limited, most scenarios have net economic benefits after 2050. The benefits are most dramatic for developing countries, with a median net benefit of 6.0% of GDP for a 1.5°C reduction target.
Tel Aviv University researchers develop innovative model that explains wave formation, tested in complex experiments. The model takes into account all unstable harmonics and limitations of previous models, providing high reliability for describing physical situation.
Researchers revised their understanding of the relationship between Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and freshwater from melting polar ice. A new model simulation suggests that AMOC is less sensitive to freshwater forcing than previously thought, contradicting long-held assumptions.
Researchers found that Dansgaard-Oeschger events, which occurred throughout the last ice age, were likely caused by atmospheric CO2 levels between 190-225 ppm. The study combines ice-core data with climate models to propose a new theory for these abrupt climate changes.
A recent study by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory researchers reveals a previously unknown atmospheric phenomenon over the Amazon rainforest, driven by plant-foliage-derived gases. These gases condense to form fine particles that cool the planet and seed clouds, affecting precipitation and the water cycle.
A new study provides evidence that long-term warming of the Amundsen Sea, a key contributor to global sea level rise, is linked to rising greenhouse gases. The research suggests that ocean temperatures in the region have been rising since before records began and are expected to continue if greenhouse gas emissions increase.
A Rice University-led team is studying the impact of climate change on flooding in the Mississippi River, which affects over a quarter of the US population. The research aims to understand how climate warming will alter the frequency and magnitude of flooding by comparing paleoclimate data with modern models.
Researchers at Virginia Tech have found that key parts of the global carbon cycle used to track movement of carbon dioxide in the environment are not correct. The estimate of how much carbon dioxide plants pull from the atmosphere is critical to accurately monitor and predict the amount of climate-changing gases in the atmosphere.
The study explores how countries can reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 with continued economic growth through 2100. The results suggest that stringent public policies and rapid deployment of low-carbon technologies are necessary to achieve this goal, with the global economy projected to be five times its size in 2100.
A team of researchers led by Purdue University's Michael Sori found that smaller Martian ice deposits hold key evidence for the planet's orbit and axial tilt's impact on its climate. The study used NASA's HiRISE camera images to analyze layer shapes in an ice deposit, providing insights into Mars' climate history.
A new study by University of Washington researchers explains why Antarctic sea ice retreats quickly during the summer months, finding that it follows simple rules of physics. The seasonal cycle is consistent, showing a fast retreat relative to slow growth.
Researchers at RIKEN Center for Computational Science used computer simulations to show that extreme weather phenomena can be controlled by making small adjustments to variables in the weather system. The study's findings promise multiple applications, including preventing and mitigating extreme windstorms.
A study has shown that wind variations over the southern Red Sea are the main drivers of sea-level extremes, driving levels up and down depending on wind direction. This understanding is crucial for coastal planning and management to mitigate the impact of storm surges and coastal erosion.
Researchers used climate models and observations to analyze Arctic temperature changes over the 20th century. They found that both natural and human activities contributed to the cooling from 1940 to 1970, with aerosol forcings being a primary factor.
Recent studies show that CMIP6 models better simulate the spatial distribution of sea surface salinity and freshwater flux variability associated with ENSO. However, some models still have large uncertainties in simulating interannual variations, requiring further improvement in related physical processes.
Historical climate model data can now be improved using super-resolution technology, a new analysis tool that enhances older meteorological model data. Researchers have successfully reconstructed high-quality and high-resolution data using this method, which was previously used for image and video upscaling.
Climate change is expected to cause a significant decline in beech forest growth in Europe, particularly in southern regions. Tree ring analyses reveal that tree growth has declined in virtually all regions over the past six decades, with the strongest contrast between northern and southern Europe.
Researchers estimate 60,000-year timeline of massive volcanic eruptions, finding 85 large global eruptions and 69 larger than the 1815 Mount Tambora eruption. This new data helps improve climate models by providing insights into Earth's climate sensitivity.
A new 30m resolution global map shows that wildfires caused 26-29% of global forest loss between 2001 and 2019, with primary tropical forests in Africa and Latin America being particularly affected. The researchers hope their map will improve climate modeling and inform forest management policies.
A study analyzing 9,000 years of Earth's history found that strong El Niño events intensified over time but with a small change due to global warming. Researchers used ancient coral data and powerful supercomputers to conduct their research, calling for further investigations into earlier climate periods.
Researchers used a novel model ensemble to study compound hot-dry-events and found that precipitation trends determine their future occurrence. The frequency of these events is expected to increase fourfold in a two-degree warmer climate, with an uncertainty of up to 48% for precipitation trends.
Researchers predict Greenland ice sheet will lose up to 3.54 meters of sea level equivalent by 3000, under unabated warming conditions. In contrast, reduced emissions pathway may see a loss of only 0.16-0.4 meters sea-level equivalent.
Researchers warn permafrost peatlands in Europe and Western Siberia are close to a climatic tipping point due to high carbon emissions. Strong action can preserve suitable climates for these ecosystems.
A new study predicts that six tropical fish species in Japan will expand northward due to rising sea temperatures. The model found that minimum sea surface temperature is the most important factor affecting distribution patterns for all species, with potential habitat range changes minimised by stringent mitigation measures.
A new study by MIT researchers reveals that glacier ice flow is more sensitive to stress than previously calculated, with revised estimates potentially refining predictions of sea level rise. The improved model could help glaciologists better understand the impact of Antarctic ice flow on future sea levels.
Researchers used a novel approach to understand the effects of human activity on the planet, introducing three parameters: delay time, memory, and persistence. They found that the atmosphere, land, and ocean system is fragile and could be forced outside its natural regime before 2050 if emissions continue as usual.
Researchers are developing new methods to predict extreme weather events, including building a 'weather dictionary' using word search technology and AI physics. By analyzing patterns and motifs in weather data, scientists aim to better understand the impact of climate change on extreme weather events.
A landmark study published in JAMA reveals that hurricanes and tropical cyclones in the US are associated with increased deaths from various causes, including injuries, infectious diseases, and cardiovascular conditions. The study analyzed 33.6 million death records and found a significant increase in mortality rates after tropical cyc...
New research from the University of Reading found that changes in air pollution levels in Asia and Europe may have driven prolonged European summer extremes and Central Asian dry spells. The study revealed that air pollution reductions in Europe strengthened the jet stream, while increases in Asia weakened it.
A fresh analysis suggests that the global cooling effect of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcano eruption will be smaller than expected. However, the researchers warn that a one-time-only event may not be sufficient to overwhelm the longer-term global warming tendency.
A $763,930 NSF CAREER Award is supporting OU meteorologist Scott Salesky's project to improve cloud representation in weather and climate models. The research aims to better understand interactions between turbulence and clouds, with potential applications for predicting precipitation and understanding Earth's climate.
A study using machine learning identifies climatic thresholds driving vegetation distribution, highlighting the importance of extreme climate conditions for savannas and deciduous forests. The findings provide valuable insights for improving process-based vegetation models and their coupling with Earth System Models.
According to a new EPFL study, Swiss rivers are at risk of overheating by the end of the century. If greenhouse gas emissions are reduced, river temperatures may only rise by 1°C and discharge decreases by 5% in mountain catchments. Inaction could lead to extreme consequences, including glacier loss and decreased biodiversity.
A new UNSW-led study reveals that global warming has amplified the water cycle, with an estimated 46,000-77,000 cubic kilometers of freshwater transported from the equator to the poles since 1970. This finding suggests broader changes to the global water cycle and highlights the need for improved climate models.
A new study examines how forests' carbon cycle varies with tree diameter, temperature, and precipitation across five continents. Small trees are found to be more important in forest productivity than previously thought, according to researchers.
A new project aims to determine the role of sea ice fragmentation in accelerating Arctic ice-cap retreat. By combining observations, theory, and process modeling, researchers hope to improve climate model accuracy.
Researchers developed a new model to predict storm damage, allowing for effective resource allocation and reduction in societal consequences. The framework can be applied to various infrastructure systems and weather events, promoting better preparedness and response.