Articles tagged with Climate Modeling
A new study predicts that six tropical fish species in Japan will expand northward due to rising sea temperatures. The model found that minimum sea surface temperature is the most important factor affecting distribution patterns for all species, with potential habitat range changes minimised by stringent mitigation measures.
Researchers are developing new methods to predict extreme weather events, including building a 'weather dictionary' using word search technology and AI physics. By analyzing patterns and motifs in weather data, scientists aim to better understand the impact of climate change on extreme weather events.
A landmark study published in JAMA reveals that hurricanes and tropical cyclones in the US are associated with increased deaths from various causes, including injuries, infectious diseases, and cardiovascular conditions. The study analyzed 33.6 million death records and found a significant increase in mortality rates after tropical cyc...
New research from the University of Reading found that changes in air pollution levels in Asia and Europe may have driven prolonged European summer extremes and Central Asian dry spells. The study revealed that air pollution reductions in Europe strengthened the jet stream, while increases in Asia weakened it.
A fresh analysis suggests that the global cooling effect of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcano eruption will be smaller than expected. However, the researchers warn that a one-time-only event may not be sufficient to overwhelm the longer-term global warming tendency.
A $763,930 NSF CAREER Award is supporting OU meteorologist Scott Salesky's project to improve cloud representation in weather and climate models. The research aims to better understand interactions between turbulence and clouds, with potential applications for predicting precipitation and understanding Earth's climate.
According to a new EPFL study, Swiss rivers are at risk of overheating by the end of the century. If greenhouse gas emissions are reduced, river temperatures may only rise by 1°C and discharge decreases by 5% in mountain catchments. Inaction could lead to extreme consequences, including glacier loss and decreased biodiversity.
A study using machine learning identifies climatic thresholds driving vegetation distribution, highlighting the importance of extreme climate conditions for savannas and deciduous forests. The findings provide valuable insights for improving process-based vegetation models and their coupling with Earth System Models.
A new UNSW-led study reveals that global warming has amplified the water cycle, with an estimated 46,000-77,000 cubic kilometers of freshwater transported from the equator to the poles since 1970. This finding suggests broader changes to the global water cycle and highlights the need for improved climate models.
A new study examines how forests' carbon cycle varies with tree diameter, temperature, and precipitation across five continents. Small trees are found to be more important in forest productivity than previously thought, according to researchers.
A new project aims to determine the role of sea ice fragmentation in accelerating Arctic ice-cap retreat. By combining observations, theory, and process modeling, researchers hope to improve climate model accuracy.
Researchers developed a new model to predict storm damage, allowing for effective resource allocation and reduction in societal consequences. The framework can be applied to various infrastructure systems and weather events, promoting better preparedness and response.
Researchers revealed key sources of uncertainty in projecting the South Asian summer monsoon's circulation under global warming, attributing it to tropospheric meridional thermal contrast. A novel diagnostic method identified atmospheric dynamics, cloud radiation effects as dominant contributors to uncertainty.
A new study reveals that fewer rainy days are leading to an earlier arrival of spring for plants in northern climates. The researchers found that as rainy days decline, spring arrives earlier due to increased solar radiation and clearer skies.
A study from the University of California, Davis, simulated 100,000 future policy and emissions trajectories to identify relevant variables that impact climate change. The results indicate that public perceptions, technological improvements, and political institution responsiveness are crucial determinants of future emissions.
Scientists at the University of Hamburg have calculated for the first time the future balance of Arctic coastal erosion, which increases by up to three meters per year with each degree of temperature increase. A shift towards greater sustainability could slow this process, but it's unlikely to stop land loss entirely.
A new study suggests that wildfires can lead to increased soil carbon stocks in savannahs and grasslands, potentially offsetting short-term emissions. The research found that fires could store up to 90 million tonnes of carbon per year, but the breakdown rate of charcoal in soils remains uncertain.
A new study published in The Cryosphere finds that warm seawater intrusion under glaciers may cause much higher rates of melting at the glacier bottom. This could lead to projected ice sheet volume loss being 10-50% higher, or more than doubling over the next century.
The NUIST-CFS1.0 model has positive skill in seasonal precipitation forecasts across Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania, with relatively accurate products throughout the rest of East Africa.
Researchers found nanoparticles from human activities rapidly grow in atmosphere and influence cloud formation, affecting raindrop formation and changing rainfall regime. The study provides new insights into the impact of small aerosols on precipitation and improves climate change studies based on mathematical models.
Researchers at UNH found that reducing carbon dioxide emissions can preserve almost three weeks of snow cover and below freezing temperatures. This preservation is critical for woodland animals, preventing the spread of invasive pests, and maintaining ski resorts' ability to make snow.
A new study by the Alfred Wegener Institute provides a basis for reliable projections of Antarctic sea-ice impacts under climate change. Ocean eddies are found to delay sea-ice loss, contrary to existing simulations, and allow the ocean to transport additional heat northward.
Researchers are using a salamander virus to predict the future of biodiversity amid a changing climate. The study aims to create better models to understand how climate change and infectious diseases interact, with potential implications for conserving species at risk of extinction.
New research finds the ocean's middle depths are already losing oxygen at unnatural rates and will reach a critical threshold in 2021. Climate change is expected to impact marine ecosystems worldwide, affecting fisheries and other resources.
A new analysis predicts climate change will decline suitable regions for coffee arabica, cashews, and avocados in major producing countries. Suitable areas may expand at higher altitudes and latitudes, particularly for cashews and avocados.
Research reveals that intense storms in the Southern Ocean increase ocean mixing, bringing carbon dioxide-rich waters to the surface and driving an outgassing of CO2 into the atmosphere. This process has significant implications for understanding global climate models and predicting future climate change.
Researchers identify significant gaps in knowledge about climate impacts on tropical cyclones, including the dynamics of storm formation and track changes. To address these limitations, they recommend extending historical datasets and improving understanding of natural variability to inform adaptive strategies.
Researchers developed a new avalanche forecasting method using computer simulations of snow cover, which can detect weak layers and identify hazard in a different way. The approach showed consistent results with observed frequencies over 16 years, offering potential to support forecasting in the future.
The FUN-BioCROP model predicts effects of plant choice and agricultural management on soil carbon storage, slowing climate change. By using bioenergy from plants, less carbon dioxide is emitted into the atmosphere, resulting in a more sustainable energy source.
A 25-30 percent increase in winter rainfall over the eastern Arabian Peninsula was found since 1981, with a decrease of about 10-20 percent in the south and northeast. This shift is linked to an El Niño pattern in the tropical Pacific Ocean.
A new study finds that climate change will lead to an increase in kidney stone cases, even with mitigation efforts. Researchers predict a cost of $57-99 million to the US healthcare system over seven decades, with a steeper impact if no action is taken.
A study improved the pDSSAT model to analyze spatiotemporal patterns of winter wheat phenology and its drivers in China from 2000 to 2015. The results showed significant enhancements in simulation accuracy, particularly for anthesis and maturity dates.
A new study by Cornell University found that moving professional conferences online reduces the global event industry's carbon footprint by 94%, and shifting to a hybrid model cuts it to 67%. The annual carbon footprint of the industry is comparable to the yearly greenhouse gas emissions of the entire US.
A simplified mathematical model found a 'lag time' between human intervention and an actual decrease in CO2 levels, which could still lead to climate tipping points. The researchers used a system of stochastic delay differential equations to analyze various emission reduction and carbon capture strategies.
Researchers at Linköping University developed a mathematical model to describe global climate target achievement and predict unanimity in climate talks. The model shows how countries influence each other over time, highlighting the importance of inclusive plenary sessions and informed parties.
A new study reveals that natural decadal variability related to the Pacific Ocean played a significant role in modulating the Pacific Walker circulation change. The research found that the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) could explain 63% of the observed strengthening trend in the Walker circulation between 1980-2015.
Current climate models underestimate species extinction rates by neglecting the complexities of ecosystems. Researchers used piñon pine data to model how climate affects tree populations and distribution, finding indirect effects that cannot be captured by climate-only models.
Researchers at WVU are creating control software for aerial robots to survey Venus' atmosphere, helping model the evolution of climate on Earth. The aerobots will use a hybrid airship design and energy-efficient paths to explore the planet's surface.
The study found that climate change impacts are apparent in nearly all aspects of climate variability, including temperature extremes, precipitation patterns, and ecosystem changes. These changes have important implications for sustainable resource management and future adaptation strategies.
A new study models India's climate change impact from varying emissions strategies during the COVID-19 recovery. The research finds that greener scenarios may drive a positive feedback loop, while extreme temperature and precipitation events are expected to increase in magnitude and frequency regardless of the emissions commitments.
A new MIT study uses climate modeling to reconstruct global hurricane activity, finding a significant increase in North Atlantic hurricanes over the last 150 years. In contrast, global hurricane frequency remains unchanged. The study's findings suggest regional climate variations play a key role in shaping hurricane patterns.
A new international study by IIASA reveals that rapid emissions cuts in the next few decades can avoid temperature overshoot, plateauing global temperatures around the time of net-zero emissions. This approach also yields long-term economic benefits, with projected GDP increases of up to 2% in scenarios that avoid overshoot.
The North American Monsoon originates from the interaction of mountain ranges with extratropical atmospheric circulation, deflecting the jet stream and generating a stationary wave. This unique case has implications for models forecasting heavy rainfall events brought by the monsoon.
A new study suggests that the tectonic opening of Southern Ocean seaways led to a sudden cooling event 34 million years ago, contributing to the formation of Antarctic ice sheets. High-resolution simulations showed that this event caused a dramatic drop in coastal temperatures and initiated the Earth's transition into an Icehouse world.
A new framework assesses flood risk by integrating climate model outputs and hydrologic models to predict uncertainty. The study found that climate uncertainty dominates overall uncertainty, and areas prone to flooding in the future will be mostly the same as current ones.
A recent study found that earthquakes and extreme rainfall lead to a significant increase in landslide rates in Nepal during the monsoon season. The research, published in Nature Communications, reveals that landscape damage caused by the April 2015 Gorkha earthquake increased landslide risk by six times.
Researchers found that warmer soil releases less carbon, but coarse-textured soils are more vulnerable to climate change. The study's findings highlight the importance of understanding soil types and their impact on carbon storage.
A team of researchers at the University of Rhode Island found that different types of phytoplankton respond differently to warming ocean temperatures. The study suggests that their growth rates and distribution patterns will be dissimilar, resulting in significant implications for future marine communities.
A new study from UMass Amherst suggests that changing land-use patterns in the greater Narragansett watershed can help mitigate the effects of climate change. The research found that expanding forest cover and investing in green infrastructure, such as rain gardens and living roofs, can reduce surface runoff and nutrient loading.
A new prediction framework can forecast extreme climate events like floods and heatwaves up to two days in advance, allowing for crucial preparation time. This network-based approach analyzes large-scale connectivity patterns in observational data to improve forecasting accuracy.
Researchers have developed a new method that uses deep neural networks to predict extreme heat waves with unprecedented accuracy, up to two weeks before they occur. This breakthrough has significant implications for risk management, planning, and warning systems, which will greatly improve public safety and support public policies.
A University of Arizona-led study reconstructs Earth's climate since the last ice age, highlighting unprecedented global temperatures and the speed of human-caused warming. The research combines two independent datasets to create a more complete picture of past temperatures.
A new study has found that increasing temperatures and heavy rainfall reduce the prevalence of Varroa mite disease in UK honey bee colonies, while heavy wind reduces its severity. Climate change is predicted to impact the risk of European foulbrood disease, with a hot spot identified in the South West England.
The Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement mobile facility has relocated from Oliktok Point in Alaska to the southeastern United States. This move will allow for continued research on climate and weather models with a new fixed observatory at Utqiaġvik, formerly known as Barrow.
A new Stanford-led study suggests that decreasing oil demand leads to larger-than-expected carbon reductions, as the impact varies depending on market factors. The research takes into account the global oil market's structure, including perfect competition, oligopoly, and cartel scenarios, to estimate climate benefits.
A NASA study published in Nature Food projects that climate change will affect crop yields as early as 2030. Maize yields are projected to decline by 24%, while wheat yields could increase by 17%. The changes are due to rising temperatures, shifting rainfall patterns, and elevated carbon dioxide concentrations.
A new study published in Science assesses updated climate pledges and finds they could limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius with a 34% chance. Even more ambitious targets would increase the likelihood of staying below 1.5 degrees Celsius.
A statistical modeling approach highlights predictive importance of local climate and human activity in determining wildfire probabilities. The analysis uncovered key roles for climate, human activity, fire history, and short-term climate variations in fire-prone regions.
Researchers used computer simulations to predict the presence of hydroxyl radicals, which clean pollutants from the atmosphere. The study showed that traditional models had widely varying forecasts due to uncertainties in gas emissions, and that better models can aid in combating climate change.
A NASA/PIK study found that new climate conditions will push crop yields outside of their normal range in more regions, particularly in breadbasket areas. This could lead to severe losses for farmers unless they adapt quickly by changing planting dates or using different crop varieties.