Articles tagged with Climate Modeling
A new study finds that model biases in simulating tropical climate trends can significantly impact projections of extreme El Niô frequency change. By removing the impacts of these biases, researchers conclude that the extreme El Niô frequency is likely to remain unchanged in the future, contrary to original projections.
The AgMIP Regional Integrated Assessment methodology provides a stakeholder-driven approach to understanding climate change impacts on agriculture. The project assesses the most vulnerable groups of farmers and develops effective solutions for adaptation and resilience planning.
A collaborative research project published in Nature offers the most complete sea-level rise projections created to date, with Antarctica remaining a wild card. Limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees C above pre-industrial temperatures could cut projected 21st century sea-level rise from land ice in half.
A new analysis suggests China needs to reduce carbon emissions by over 90% and energy consumption by almost 40% to achieve the 1.5°C target, with industry being the main emission contributor. The study also highlights the need for more research on economic consequences of working towards this goal.
Researchers develop a new land-use classification system to improve climate models by incorporating archaeological data, revealing the diversity and intensity of human activities that affected past land cover. The project aims to fill gaps in climate modeling predictions and provide insights into global climate patterns.
The Tibetan Plateau has warmed more rapidly than the global average in recent decades, primarily caused by greenhouse gas emissions. The plateau's rapid warming poses significant risks for regional hydrological cycles and ecosystem services.
Researchers investigate the ecological impacts of solar radiation modification (SRM) on Earth's ecosystems. The study predicts SRM could have complex and uneven effects on ecosystem functions and biodiversity. Climate scientists emphasize the need for continued decarbonization efforts alongside SRM research.
A Cornell-led study found that climate change has slowed global agricultural productivity growth by 21%, or about seven years, since the 1960s. The research used an econometric model linking weather changes and productivity measures to quantify the impact of human-caused climate change on total factor productivity.
Climate change and poaching pressure are expected to significantly impact kangaskhan habitat suitability, according to a new study. Researchers used several species distribution modeling algorithms to predict the species' future survival.
A new study finds that global warming significantly increases the risk of population displacement due to river floods, even when accounting for population growth. The research projects a 110% increase in globally averaged displacement risk by 2100 if climate change is aligned with the Paris Agreement, highlighting the need for rapid ac...
A team of scientists led by NYU's Laure Zanna will leverage AI and machine learning to improve climate simulations, capturing vital atmospheric and oceanic processes like turbulence and clouds. The project aims to deliver more reliable climate projections, informing policymakers and scientists.
The Antarctic peninsula is expected to experience significant warming over the next two decades, with temperatures rising by 0.5 to 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2044. Precipitation in the region is also projected to increase by 5% to 10%, posing a threat to the ice shelves and glaciers that cover it.
Scientists have identified a statistical relationship between city growth and paved surfaces' impact on water cycles and climates. They also demonstrated a method to heal dendrites in solid-state batteries, and created high-performance thermoplastic composites using additive manufacturing and conventional compression molding.
Researchers challenge prevailing views that warmer climate means more dry land by developing a new metric of drylands based on land surface properties. The study found that climate models don't project a dramatic and rapid global expansion of drylands, but still struggle with uncertainty about future land changes.
A team of climate scientists has found that the apparent 'Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation' is likely an artifact of climate forcing, specifically from greenhouse gases. Volcanic eruptions in past centuries caused initial cooling and a slow recovery, resulting in a roughly 60-year oscillation.
A recent analysis of CMIP6 climate models found that those with high climate sensitivity do not provide a plausible scenario of Earth's future climate. Models with lower climate sensitivity are more consistent with observed differences in temperature between the northern and southern hemispheres.
A model study suggests that abrupt shifts in ocean currents could occur decades before anticipated due to rate-induced tipping. This could lead to drastic changes in agriculture, biodiversity, and the economy. The findings highlight fundamental limitations in climate predictability and emphasize the need to limit CO2 emissions.
The study reveals that next-generation climate models will provide valuable information on hourly precipitation, enabling better adaptation policies for infrastructure and economies. The research demonstrates the added value of high-resolution climate simulations, confirming their worth in areas with complex orography like the Alps.
Businesses are increasingly required to assess their vulnerability to climate change, but complex climate models pose a challenge for risk assessment and decision-making. A paradigm shift is needed to elevate climate modeling to operational weather forecasting level, providing tangible value to businesses.
A study by Talib Dbouk and Dimitris Drikakis from the University of Nicosia found that temperature, humidity, and wind speed significantly impact epidemic behavior. The researchers developed a new model, AIR index, which accurately predicted the timing of second outbreaks in Paris, New York City, and Rio de Janeiro.
Scientists have resolved a key climate change mystery, showing that annual global temperature today is the warmest of the past 10,000 years. The study, led by Rutgers University, challenges long-held views on Holocene era temperatures and confirms greenhouse gases drove recent millennia warming.
Researchers have developed a new method to improve estimations of ultimate global warming from complex climate models, relevant for accurate projections of future climate change. By adding another observable on top of traditional ones, the method reduces uncertainties in long-term calculations.
A new global dataset of bioclimatic indicators at high spatial resolution is released to aid in understanding future species distribution and climate change impacts. The dataset, called CMCC-BioClimInd, provides valuable information for studies using species distribution modeling.
New study reveals that Antarctic icebergs trigger chain reactions leading to prolonged cold temperatures. The research suggests a 'missing link' in the process that leads to ice ages, with implications for understanding climate change and future ocean circulation patterns.
A study published in Nature Communications found that wildfire smoke is more cooling than current models assume. The research team used observations from around the world and compared them to climate model results, revealing a significant difference.
A new data-driven global climate model projects significant urban heat stress and reduced relative humidity in cities by the end of this century. The study's findings emphasize the need for local urban climate projections to support city planners' adaptation strategies, such as green infrastructure interventions.
A new study by researchers at McGill University projects that the threshold for dangerous global warming will be crossed between 2027 and 2042. This is a narrower window than previous estimates, with expected warming being about 10 to 15 percent lower.
Scientists developed a new land surface model incorporating multiple processes and human activities to improve water-energy simulations and environmental protection. The CAS-LSM model can evaluate ecohydrological effects of stream water transfer and provide advice for urban planning.
A new study predicts that global warming will lead to fewer but more intense tropical cyclones, particularly category 3 or higher events, due to increased humidity and energy levels. The research used high-resolution supercomputer simulations to model the interaction between ocean heat content and tropical cyclones.
A new study provides the first-of-its-kind model for how massive icebergs from Antarctica decay and affect ocean currents. The research found that these icebergs deliver freshwater to the Southern Ocean, influencing climate patterns.
A new study predicts a 60% greater melting of the Greenland ice sheet than previously predicted, leading to a 18 cm sea level rise by 2100. The MAR model suggests that increased Arctic warming will contribute significantly to this melting.
Researchers found that California's winter precipitation projections are likely to be drier than expected due to a persistent error in climate models known as the double-ITCZ bias. This bias can lead to reduced winter precipitation, less spring runoff, and increased wildfire risk in the state.
The WRF4-LICOM model shows improved summer mean monsoon rainfall, circulations, and sea surface heat fluxes. Regional air-sea coupling enhances the simulated daily SST-rainfall relationship, offering a more accurate representation of the western North Pacific summer monsoon.
A new study reveals that polar climate variations can impact tropical trade winds via atmospheric and oceanic pathways. The research demonstrates that anomalous cooling in either hemisphere leads to a strengthening of the tropical trade winds.
Research led by KAUST scientists Evgeniya Predybaylo and Georgiy Stenchikov found that volcanic eruptions have a stronger effect on the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in summer. The study, which analyzed over 6,000 climate simulations, shows that seasonal timing of eruptions matters for predicting climate responses.
The CMIP6 models reproduce spatial distributions of temperature extremes better than CMIP5 models. However, they struggle to capture warm days and cold nights, especially over the Tibetan Plateau. Advanced CMIP6 models show no significant differences from their CMIP5 counterparts for some models.
Researchers recommend using past climates to evaluate and fine-tune climate models, as they often perform better with historic climates but struggle with ancient climates. This could help narrow uncertainties surrounding future temperature, ice sheet, and water cycle changes.
Researchers improve simulated precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau using convection-permitting models. These models better depict precipitation frequency and intensity, reducing the wet bias in traditional climate models. Higher resolution and more accurate parameterizations lead to improved simulations.
A recent study combining climate modeling and fossil records reveals that climate change played a major role in the extinction of past Homo species. Despite technological advancements, these ancient humans were unable to adapt to changing temperatures, leading to their demise.
Researchers found that accounting for climate variability increases predicted sea level rise by 2.7-4.3 inches by 2100, compared to 10.6-14.9 inches without variability. This additional ice melt will impact hurricane storm surges globally.
A study published in Nature Communications found that climate models differ largely because of varying projections regarding polar ice loss and atmospheric water vapor. Climate scientists are working to improve the accuracy of their models by reconciling these discrepancies.
Researchers at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution have developed a machine learning-based framework to improve estimates of air-sea heat exchange in the Arctic Ocean. The project leverages remote sensing technologies and data from sensors, saildrone USVs, and satellites to validate satellite-based modeling of the Arctic region.
Aerosol particles play a significant role in heat absorption and deflection by the atmosphere. Researchers have now detected the rate at which these tiny particles leave the atmosphere, revealing a much narrower range of lifetimes than previously suggested. This new understanding can improve climate models and air quality forecasting.
A multiorganizational collaboration of climate modelers, ice core scientists, and paleoclimate researchers contributed to a study forecasting significant ice loss in Greenland. The team used ice sheet modeling to reconstruct the ancient climate and projected the ice sheet's future into 2100.
A new study finds that Greenland's rate of ice loss in the 21st century could be greater than anything seen in the past 12,000 years due to human activities. The research uses ice sheet modeling and ancient climate reconstructions to understand the past, present, and future of the Greenland Ice Sheet.
Researchers are advancing decadal predictions by applying a multivariate statistical framework to climate models. They aim to improve understanding of climate variability and predictability.
A new study reconstructed sea ice transported from the Arctic Ocean through the Fram Strait and into the North Atlantic Ocean over the last 1400 years. The reconstruction suggests that the Little Ice Age was triggered by an exceptionally large outflow of sea ice from the Arctic Ocean in the 1300s.
International model comparison reveals Greenland Ice Sheet will contribute 9cm to global sea-level rise by 2100, while Antarctic predictions vary between -7.8 to 30cm. However, ice-sheet models for Greenland underestimate the current changes in the ice sheet due to climate change.
The Arctic has transitioned into a new climate state due to rapid warming, with sea ice extent dropping by 31% since the 1970s. The study found that even unusually cold years will no longer have the same amount of summer sea ice as in the mid-20th century.
Researchers at the University of Central Florida have developed models to predict periods of relatively higher flood risk due to storm surges. The models link large-scale climate variability events like El Niño to storm surge activity, allowing for more accurate predictions and improved coastal preparedness.
A new version of China's climate system model shows significant improvements in simulating ocean and sea ice trends. The model outperforms previous versions in terms of climate element representation, including long-term trends and climatological patterns.
A new study published in Nature Climate Change reveals that Arctic sea ice is melting at a rate one to three times faster than previously estimated. The research team compared current temperature changes in the Arctic with climate fluctuations from the last ice age, finding that temperatures are increasing rapidly.
Researchers found equilibrium climate sensitivity likely between 1.9 and 3.4 °C based on latest climate models, contradicting high predictions of over 5°C warming. This range suggests goals of the Paris agreement may be achievable even with nations taking maximum efforts.
Researchers used a high-resolution climate model to compare Arctic sea ice conditions during the last interglacial with present-day data. The findings suggest that intense springtime sunshine led to the formation of melt ponds, which contributed to sea ice melt.
Researchers developed Ae DES to monitor and forecast environmental suitability for transmission of Zika, dengue fever, chikungunya and other diseases. The system combines multiple R0 models with climate information, generating probabilistic forecasts that are robust due to a large sample size.
Climate models struggle with reducing uncertainty in global temperature predictions and predicting tipping points, which pose a major threat to modern societies. A new review outlines a more effective approach to perform better climate simulations and extract more information from models.
Scientists have made a major breakthrough in predicting North Atlantic pressure patterns, which drive European and eastern North American winter weather. The study suggests that decadal variations in atmospheric pressure are highly predictable, enabling advanced warnings of extreme weather events.
A new study suggests electric fans and self-dousing with water could effectively cool people at home during extreme heat. Researchers found that up to 65% of the US population could stay cool on all summer days using this strategy.
University of Utah researchers found that Salt Lake City's buildings will require less natural gas for heating and more electricity for cooling as temperatures rise. The study suggests that local building policy can impact energy use in the future, with multi-family apartment buildings expected to grow in number.
A new study uses satellite data to understand global cloud composition during the industrial revolution, finding that early-industrial aerosol concentrations were much higher than estimated by climate models. This could mean human-generated atmospheric aerosols are not having as strong a cooling effect as previously thought.