Articles tagged with Climate Modeling
Researchers at Oak Ridge National Laboratory are advancing various technologies to minimize oil leaks, enable 3D printing in space, and increase fuel efficiency from ethanol. They have developed a quantum sensing system to detect pipeline leaks more quickly, built a thermal protection shield for a capsule launched into space, and creat...
A new study suggests that droughts in South America will increase by the end of the century due to rising temperatures and greenhouse gas emissions. The study used 38 Global Climate Models to analyze temperature and precipitation changes across the continent.
A University of Oklahoma researcher is using fluid dynamics principles to improve climate modeling, with a focus on turbulent transport in the lower atmosphere. The project aims to enhance predictability and accuracy in weather and climate patterns.
A new study predicts that global warming will lead to a sharp increase in heat-related deaths, outstripping the decline in cold-related mortality, unless strong mitigation measures are taken immediately. The Mediterranean Basin is expected to be disproportionately affected due to its greater vulnerability to heat.
Researchers developed a new model that addresses gaps in urban climate modeling, providing global multi-model projections of local urban climates. The study finds that cities in high-stakes regions like the Great Lakes and southern Europe are at higher risk for extreme heat events.
A study suggests that China will experience an increase in landfalling tropical cyclones by the end of the 21st century, with a projected 16% rise in annual mean frequency and a 10% increase in occurrence frequency. The study used regional climate models to simulate future changes in temperature and precipitation patterns.
Thirty state-of-the-art IPCC-climate models predict varying climates for Europe due to differing simulations of North Atlantic ocean currents. The analysis highlights the importance of incorporating ocean circulation into climate models, suggesting that uncertainties in predictions may be largely dependent on changes to this circulation.
Researchers developed a simple-to-use Multivariable Integrated Evaluation Tool (MVIETool) to facilitate climate model evaluation and models inter-comparison. The improved MVIE method provides a more comprehensive and precise evaluation of climate model performance, including accurate evaluation results for spatial fields.
Researchers have found that summer rainfall on the Tibetan Plateau is highly predictable on multiyear timescales using large ensemble predictions. The study reveals a substantial underestimation of the predictable signal in state-of-the-art decadal prediction models.
A new study using Regional Climate Models (RCMs) at kilometer scale has shown significant improvements in simulating extreme rainfall events. The RCMs outperform lower resolution models, especially during summer months, providing more accurate predictions for policymakers to adapt to climate change.
Two international studies analyzing Antarctic ice cores found warmer temperatures in East Antarctica during the last ice age, with temperatures averaging 6.1 degrees Celsius colder than today. The findings better match global climate models and strengthen confidence in their ability to simulate Earth's climate.
A new study reveals that winds play a crucial role in driving changes in ocean circulation patterns, particularly in the sub-polar North Atlantic. The study's findings suggest that future climate change may alter annual AMOC variability in this region.
Carbon dioxide played a crucial role in warming early Earth's climate, offsetting the reduced light from the young Sun. The δ18O ratio of ancient seawater suggests a warm but not hot environment, with high CO2 concentrations, around 3 billion years ago.
A study by Manuel Santos Gutiérrez and colleagues reveals that machine learning-based simplified climate models can build an actual understanding of the climate system. The findings indicate that data-driven methods are dynamically and physically sound, producing robust simulations. This breakthrough has significant implications for va...
A study analyzing climate simulations reveals that small differences in aerosol forcing can significantly affect simulated temperatures and Arctic sea ice area. The results show that natural and anthropogenic forcing uncertainties can markedly impact simulations of Earth's past and future climate.
Scientists monitor two Ethiopian bird species, White-tailed Swallow and Ethiopian Bush-crow, to understand their response to climate change. The study found that both species are at severe risk of extinction in the next 50 years as their ranges become unsuitable for survival.
A new study evaluates the performance of CMIP6 models in simulating the global warming slowdown observed in the early 2000s. Most models fail to reproduce this phenomenon, despite presenting some improvements over CMIP5 models.
Degrowth scenarios, focusing on global North reduction in energy and material use while maintaining wellbeing, have clear advantages over established pathways. Combining social change with technological improvements can achieve net-zero carbon emissions more easily.
A new study finds that model biases in simulating tropical climate trends can significantly impact projections of extreme El Niô frequency change. By removing the impacts of these biases, researchers conclude that the extreme El Niô frequency is likely to remain unchanged in the future, contrary to original projections.
The AgMIP Regional Integrated Assessment methodology provides a stakeholder-driven approach to understanding climate change impacts on agriculture. The project assesses the most vulnerable groups of farmers and develops effective solutions for adaptation and resilience planning.
A collaborative research project published in Nature offers the most complete sea-level rise projections created to date, with Antarctica remaining a wild card. Limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees C above pre-industrial temperatures could cut projected 21st century sea-level rise from land ice in half.
A new analysis suggests China needs to reduce carbon emissions by over 90% and energy consumption by almost 40% to achieve the 1.5°C target, with industry being the main emission contributor. The study also highlights the need for more research on economic consequences of working towards this goal.
Researchers develop a new land-use classification system to improve climate models by incorporating archaeological data, revealing the diversity and intensity of human activities that affected past land cover. The project aims to fill gaps in climate modeling predictions and provide insights into global climate patterns.
The Tibetan Plateau has warmed more rapidly than the global average in recent decades, primarily caused by greenhouse gas emissions. The plateau's rapid warming poses significant risks for regional hydrological cycles and ecosystem services.
Researchers investigate the ecological impacts of solar radiation modification (SRM) on Earth's ecosystems. The study predicts SRM could have complex and uneven effects on ecosystem functions and biodiversity. Climate scientists emphasize the need for continued decarbonization efforts alongside SRM research.
A Cornell-led study found that climate change has slowed global agricultural productivity growth by 21%, or about seven years, since the 1960s. The research used an econometric model linking weather changes and productivity measures to quantify the impact of human-caused climate change on total factor productivity.
Climate change and poaching pressure are expected to significantly impact kangaskhan habitat suitability, according to a new study. Researchers used several species distribution modeling algorithms to predict the species' future survival.
A new study finds that global warming significantly increases the risk of population displacement due to river floods, even when accounting for population growth. The research projects a 110% increase in globally averaged displacement risk by 2100 if climate change is aligned with the Paris Agreement, highlighting the need for rapid ac...
A team of scientists led by NYU's Laure Zanna will leverage AI and machine learning to improve climate simulations, capturing vital atmospheric and oceanic processes like turbulence and clouds. The project aims to deliver more reliable climate projections, informing policymakers and scientists.
Scientists have identified a statistical relationship between city growth and paved surfaces' impact on water cycles and climates. They also demonstrated a method to heal dendrites in solid-state batteries, and created high-performance thermoplastic composites using additive manufacturing and conventional compression molding.
The Antarctic peninsula is expected to experience significant warming over the next two decades, with temperatures rising by 0.5 to 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2044. Precipitation in the region is also projected to increase by 5% to 10%, posing a threat to the ice shelves and glaciers that cover it.
Researchers challenge prevailing views that warmer climate means more dry land by developing a new metric of drylands based on land surface properties. The study found that climate models don't project a dramatic and rapid global expansion of drylands, but still struggle with uncertainty about future land changes.
A team of climate scientists has found that the apparent 'Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation' is likely an artifact of climate forcing, specifically from greenhouse gases. Volcanic eruptions in past centuries caused initial cooling and a slow recovery, resulting in a roughly 60-year oscillation.
A recent analysis of CMIP6 climate models found that those with high climate sensitivity do not provide a plausible scenario of Earth's future climate. Models with lower climate sensitivity are more consistent with observed differences in temperature between the northern and southern hemispheres.
A model study suggests that abrupt shifts in ocean currents could occur decades before anticipated due to rate-induced tipping. This could lead to drastic changes in agriculture, biodiversity, and the economy. The findings highlight fundamental limitations in climate predictability and emphasize the need to limit CO2 emissions.
The study reveals that next-generation climate models will provide valuable information on hourly precipitation, enabling better adaptation policies for infrastructure and economies. The research demonstrates the added value of high-resolution climate simulations, confirming their worth in areas with complex orography like the Alps.
Businesses are increasingly required to assess their vulnerability to climate change, but complex climate models pose a challenge for risk assessment and decision-making. A paradigm shift is needed to elevate climate modeling to operational weather forecasting level, providing tangible value to businesses.
A study by Talib Dbouk and Dimitris Drikakis from the University of Nicosia found that temperature, humidity, and wind speed significantly impact epidemic behavior. The researchers developed a new model, AIR index, which accurately predicted the timing of second outbreaks in Paris, New York City, and Rio de Janeiro.
Scientists have resolved a key climate change mystery, showing that annual global temperature today is the warmest of the past 10,000 years. The study, led by Rutgers University, challenges long-held views on Holocene era temperatures and confirms greenhouse gases drove recent millennia warming.
Researchers have developed a new method to improve estimations of ultimate global warming from complex climate models, relevant for accurate projections of future climate change. By adding another observable on top of traditional ones, the method reduces uncertainties in long-term calculations.
A new global dataset of bioclimatic indicators at high spatial resolution is released to aid in understanding future species distribution and climate change impacts. The dataset, called CMCC-BioClimInd, provides valuable information for studies using species distribution modeling.
New study reveals that Antarctic icebergs trigger chain reactions leading to prolonged cold temperatures. The research suggests a 'missing link' in the process that leads to ice ages, with implications for understanding climate change and future ocean circulation patterns.
A study published in Nature Communications found that wildfire smoke is more cooling than current models assume. The research team used observations from around the world and compared them to climate model results, revealing a significant difference.
A new data-driven global climate model projects significant urban heat stress and reduced relative humidity in cities by the end of this century. The study's findings emphasize the need for local urban climate projections to support city planners' adaptation strategies, such as green infrastructure interventions.
A new study by researchers at McGill University projects that the threshold for dangerous global warming will be crossed between 2027 and 2042. This is a narrower window than previous estimates, with expected warming being about 10 to 15 percent lower.
Scientists developed a new land surface model incorporating multiple processes and human activities to improve water-energy simulations and environmental protection. The CAS-LSM model can evaluate ecohydrological effects of stream water transfer and provide advice for urban planning.
A new study provides the first-of-its-kind model for how massive icebergs from Antarctica decay and affect ocean currents. The research found that these icebergs deliver freshwater to the Southern Ocean, influencing climate patterns.
A new study predicts that global warming will lead to fewer but more intense tropical cyclones, particularly category 3 or higher events, due to increased humidity and energy levels. The research used high-resolution supercomputer simulations to model the interaction between ocean heat content and tropical cyclones.
Researchers found that California's winter precipitation projections are likely to be drier than expected due to a persistent error in climate models known as the double-ITCZ bias. This bias can lead to reduced winter precipitation, less spring runoff, and increased wildfire risk in the state.
A new study predicts a 60% greater melting of the Greenland ice sheet than previously predicted, leading to a 18 cm sea level rise by 2100. The MAR model suggests that increased Arctic warming will contribute significantly to this melting.
The WRF4-LICOM model shows improved summer mean monsoon rainfall, circulations, and sea surface heat fluxes. Regional air-sea coupling enhances the simulated daily SST-rainfall relationship, offering a more accurate representation of the western North Pacific summer monsoon.
A new study reveals that polar climate variations can impact tropical trade winds via atmospheric and oceanic pathways. The research demonstrates that anomalous cooling in either hemisphere leads to a strengthening of the tropical trade winds.
Research led by KAUST scientists Evgeniya Predybaylo and Georgiy Stenchikov found that volcanic eruptions have a stronger effect on the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in summer. The study, which analyzed over 6,000 climate simulations, shows that seasonal timing of eruptions matters for predicting climate responses.
The CMIP6 models reproduce spatial distributions of temperature extremes better than CMIP5 models. However, they struggle to capture warm days and cold nights, especially over the Tibetan Plateau. Advanced CMIP6 models show no significant differences from their CMIP5 counterparts for some models.
Researchers recommend using past climates to evaluate and fine-tune climate models, as they often perform better with historic climates but struggle with ancient climates. This could help narrow uncertainties surrounding future temperature, ice sheet, and water cycle changes.
Researchers improve simulated precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau using convection-permitting models. These models better depict precipitation frequency and intensity, reducing the wet bias in traditional climate models. Higher resolution and more accurate parameterizations lead to improved simulations.
A recent study combining climate modeling and fossil records reveals that climate change played a major role in the extinction of past Homo species. Despite technological advancements, these ancient humans were unable to adapt to changing temperatures, leading to their demise.
Researchers found that accounting for climate variability increases predicted sea level rise by 2.7-4.3 inches by 2100, compared to 10.6-14.9 inches without variability. This additional ice melt will impact hurricane storm surges globally.
A study published in Nature Communications found that climate models differ largely because of varying projections regarding polar ice loss and atmospheric water vapor. Climate scientists are working to improve the accuracy of their models by reconciling these discrepancies.
A multiorganizational collaboration of climate modelers, ice core scientists, and paleoclimate researchers contributed to a study forecasting significant ice loss in Greenland. The team used ice sheet modeling to reconstruct the ancient climate and projected the ice sheet's future into 2100.