Research modeling the climate and its extremes. Covers climate extremes, ocean-dipole types, weather forecasting, and AI ecosystem monitoring.
Research led by KAUST scientists Evgeniya Predybaylo and Georgiy Stenchikov found that volcanic eruptions have a stronger effect on the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in summer. The study, which analyzed over 6,000 climate simulations, shows that seasonal timing of eruptions matters for predicting climate responses.
The CMIP6 models reproduce spatial distributions of temperature extremes better than CMIP5 models. However, they struggle to capture warm days and cold nights, especially over the Tibetan Plateau. Advanced CMIP6 models show no significant differences from their CMIP5 counterparts for some models.
Researchers recommend using past climates to evaluate and fine-tune climate models, as they often perform better with historic climates but struggle with ancient climates. This could help narrow uncertainties surrounding future temperature, ice sheet, and water cycle changes.
Researchers improve simulated precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau using convection-permitting models. These models better depict precipitation frequency and intensity, reducing the wet bias in traditional climate models. Higher resolution and more accurate parameterizations lead to improved simulations.
A recent study combining climate modeling and fossil records reveals that climate change played a major role in the extinction of past Homo species. Despite technological advancements, these ancient humans were unable to adapt to changing temperatures, leading to their demise.
Researchers found that accounting for climate variability increases predicted sea level rise by 2.7-4.3 inches by 2100, compared to 10.6-14.9 inches without variability. This additional ice melt will impact hurricane storm surges globally.
A study published in Nature Communications found that climate models differ largely because of varying projections regarding polar ice loss and atmospheric water vapor. Climate scientists are working to improve the accuracy of their models by reconciling these discrepancies.
Researchers at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution have developed a machine learning-based framework to improve estimates of air-sea heat exchange in the Arctic Ocean. The project leverages remote sensing technologies and data from sensors, saildrone USVs, and satellites to validate satellite-based modeling of the Arctic region.
Aerosol particles play a significant role in heat absorption and deflection by the atmosphere. Researchers have now detected the rate at which these tiny particles leave the atmosphere, revealing a much narrower range of lifetimes than previously suggested. This new understanding can improve climate models and air quality forecasting.
A multiorganizational collaboration of climate modelers, ice core scientists, and paleoclimate researchers contributed to a study forecasting significant ice loss in Greenland. The team used ice sheet modeling to reconstruct the ancient climate and projected the ice sheet's future into 2100.
A new study finds that Greenland's rate of ice loss in the 21st century could be greater than anything seen in the past 12,000 years due to human activities. The research uses ice sheet modeling and ancient climate reconstructions to understand the past, present, and future of the Greenland Ice Sheet.
Researchers are advancing decadal predictions by applying a multivariate statistical framework to climate models. They aim to improve understanding of climate variability and predictability.
A new study reconstructed sea ice transported from the Arctic Ocean through the Fram Strait and into the North Atlantic Ocean over the last 1400 years. The reconstruction suggests that the Little Ice Age was triggered by an exceptionally large outflow of sea ice from the Arctic Ocean in the 1300s.
International model comparison reveals Greenland Ice Sheet will contribute 9cm to global sea-level rise by 2100, while Antarctic predictions vary between -7.8 to 30cm. However, ice-sheet models for Greenland underestimate the current changes in the ice sheet due to climate change.
The Arctic has transitioned into a new climate state due to rapid warming, with sea ice extent dropping by 31% since the 1970s. The study found that even unusually cold years will no longer have the same amount of summer sea ice as in the mid-20th century.
Researchers at the University of Central Florida have developed models to predict periods of relatively higher flood risk due to storm surges. The models link large-scale climate variability events like El Niño to storm surge activity, allowing for more accurate predictions and improved coastal preparedness.
A new version of China's climate system model shows significant improvements in simulating ocean and sea ice trends. The model outperforms previous versions in terms of climate element representation, including long-term trends and climatological patterns.
A new study published in Nature Climate Change reveals that Arctic sea ice is melting at a rate one to three times faster than previously estimated. The research team compared current temperature changes in the Arctic with climate fluctuations from the last ice age, finding that temperatures are increasing rapidly.
Researchers found equilibrium climate sensitivity likely between 1.9 and 3.4 °C based on latest climate models, contradicting high predictions of over 5°C warming. This range suggests goals of the Paris agreement may be achievable even with nations taking maximum efforts.
Researchers used a high-resolution climate model to compare Arctic sea ice conditions during the last interglacial with present-day data. The findings suggest that intense springtime sunshine led to the formation of melt ponds, which contributed to sea ice melt.
Researchers developed Ae DES to monitor and forecast environmental suitability for transmission of Zika, dengue fever, chikungunya and other diseases. The system combines multiple R0 models with climate information, generating probabilistic forecasts that are robust due to a large sample size.
Climate models struggle with reducing uncertainty in global temperature predictions and predicting tipping points, which pose a major threat to modern societies. A new review outlines a more effective approach to perform better climate simulations and extract more information from models.
Scientists have made a major breakthrough in predicting North Atlantic pressure patterns, which drive European and eastern North American winter weather. The study suggests that decadal variations in atmospheric pressure are highly predictable, enabling advanced warnings of extreme weather events.
A new study suggests electric fans and self-dousing with water could effectively cool people at home during extreme heat. Researchers found that up to 65% of the US population could stay cool on all summer days using this strategy.
University of Utah researchers found that Salt Lake City's buildings will require less natural gas for heating and more electricity for cooling as temperatures rise. The study suggests that local building policy can impact energy use in the future, with multi-family apartment buildings expected to grow in number.
The study assesses the simulation performance for global precipitation and summer hemispheric precipitation using CMIP6 datasets. The GMMIP simulation significantly exceeds the historical experiment, especially in terms of fidelity to different timescales.
A new study uses satellite data to understand global cloud composition during the industrial revolution, finding that early-industrial aerosol concentrations were much higher than estimated by climate models. This could mean human-generated atmospheric aerosols are not having as strong a cooling effect as previously thought.
A high-resolution climate simulation reveals significantly increased precipitation over the monsoon trough due to global warming, driven by tropical disturbances and enhanced water vapor. The study also found distinct trends in water vapor and a stronger effect of global sea surface temperature increases on precipitation.
The Greenland Ice Sheet holds enough water to raise sea levels nearly 24 feet. A new project, GreenDrill, aims to drill through the ice to the underlying bedrock, revealing the ice sheet's past in unprecedented detail and enabling more accurate predictions of how it may add to rising seas.
Researchers at Argonne National Laboratory developed new global models to study the impact of environmental controllers on soil organic carbon, reducing uncertainty in predicting climate change impacts. The models improve the spatial representation of soil organic carbon in Earth system models.
Researchers developed a deep learning method that enhances global climate models' ability to predict wind velocity and solar irradiance data, leading to more accurate renewable energy prospects. The approach results in high-resolution modeling under various climate scenarios.
A recent study evaluates proxy-based reconstructions and model simulations for past temperature changes, finding that uncertainties increase over time. The results show that climate modeling results are less reliable than proxy-based reconstructions, especially during Medieval times.
George Mason University Associate Professor Cristiana Stan will collaborate with the US Department of Energy on a climate modeling project. She will provide program expertise in E3SM, a state-of-the-science Earth system model addressing energy sector challenges.
A new study suggests that challenges simulating clouds are causing some climate models to be more sensitive to carbon dioxide, potentially leading to a warmer future. The updated models have shown a greater range of responses than previous generations, with some models showing higher sensitivity and others lower.
The new FOCI system allows for high-resolution ocean and climate modelling over centuries to millennia, enabling researchers to study natural climate fluctuations and anthropogenic climate change. With its modular design, FOCI can be configured to investigate various research questions and improve the accuracy of model simulations.
A new study found that seasonal growth and destruction of sea ice enhances marine life, drawing down carbon from the atmosphere and storing it in the deep ocean. This process could provide a critical resource for developing future climate change models.
A new study using statistical mechanics improves climate prediction accuracy for IPCC-class models, bridging gap between scenarios and models. This approach enables real-time scenario construction and facilitates the assessment of tipping points, a crucial aspect of understanding climate change.
Researchers evaluated 40 climate models focusing on Antarctic sea ice, finding improvements in projections compared to previous models. The study sheds light on dynamics in the Southern Ocean surrounding Antarctica, essential for understanding global climate changes.
New research from the Institute of Atmospheric Physics suggests a future intensification of the WNPSH under RCP 8.5, leading to stronger East Asian summer monsoon and increased rainfall but reduced typhoon landfalls over East Asia. However, this may also imply increased risk of heatwaves in southern and eastern China.
Researchers warn that a violent Philippine volcanic eruption could lead to an El Niño event, intense polar vortex, and Eurasian warming. The Taal volcano's ongoing eruption has the potential to produce hazardous consequences for the Earth's climate.
Researchers found that solar geoengineering schemes could weaken extratropical storm tracks in both hemispheres, leading to less powerful winter storms but also stagnant conditions and reduced wind. The study's results have significant implications for understanding the potential effects of climate engineering on global weather patterns.
Research by the University of Exeter suggests that climate change could lead to sudden changes in British vegetation, particularly in regions with warmer and wetter conditions. This increase in plant growth is expected due to factors such as CO2 fertilization, but soil drying out can also cause rapid decreases in vegetation productivity.
A new study suggests that farmland requiring irrigation could increase to 1.8 billion hectares, far exceeding current projections, with potential consequences for water resources, biodiversity, and climate change.
CU Boulder researchers developed a method to predict ocean acidity up to five years in advance, providing crucial information for fisheries and communities. The new approach leverages historical climate model forecasts to improve prediction accuracy.
Climate researchers question CESM2 model's extreme warming projections, citing geological evidence from a 50-million-year-old warming period. The study highlights the need to benchmark climate models using geological data to ensure accurate predictions.
A new study investigates the biogeophysical impacts of forestation on European climate, revealing that a continent covered in trees would generate up to one degree of extra seasonal heating in winter. The research used a multi-model ensemble approach and compared two ideal scenarios: a forested Europe and a grassland-covered Europe.
A new study predicts that climate change risks to biodiversity will surge suddenly, with up to 15% of ecosystems facing irreversible damage by 2100. This is due to a 'series of cliff edges' where species face conditions they've never experienced before, leading to extinction.
A new theoretical model breaks down vertical atmospheric movement into dry and moist components, explaining regional patterns of extreme precipitation sensitivity. The model suggests that climate warming impacts vary by latitude, with the dry component dominating in mid-latitudes.
Researchers predict that northern peatlands will remain carbon sinks until the end of this century, but their sink capacity will be substantially reduced after 2050. The modeling study aimed to address these concerns and highlighted the importance of peatlands in the global carbon cycle.
A team of researchers discovered pristinely preserved forest soil from the Cretaceous, including plant pollen and spores, in West Antarctica. The soil confirms that the region was home to temperate, swampy rainforests with an annual mean temperature of 12 degrees Celsius, much warmer than today's South Pole.
A new Stanford study found that historical observations can lead to significant underestimates of extreme weather events by about half, particularly heat waves and heavy rainfall in Europe, East Asia, and the U.S. Climate models were more accurate in predicting future occurrence of record-setting events.
A study using crop models and climate simulations found that a limited nuclear war in South Asia could decrease global temperature by 1.8ºC and precipitation by 8% over the first 5 years, resulting in significant yield losses and food shortages worldwide.
A new climate change model developed by Purdue University researchers projects a 10%-20% increase in electricity and 2%-5% increase in water demand in the Midwest due to global warming. The model considers multiple climate variables, including temperature, humidity, wind speed, and large-scale phenomena like El Niño.
The new E3SM model can capture complex climate-generating behavior with high resolution, simulating regional climate and built infrastructure. It will help predict how changes in climate and water cycling respond to increasing CO2.
Researchers unveiled new methods to decode climate system behavior, develop recyclable composites, and explore alternative energy sources. These advancements aim to improve climate predictions, provide cost-effective adaptation strategies, and promote sustainable practices.
A new study by University of Exeter researchers has found that Arctic warming does not drive a more meandering jet stream, despite earlier studies suggesting a link between the two. The research suggests random fluctuations in the jet stream influencing Arctic temperatures may be behind any observed correlation.
Climate-driven farming in 'frontiers' could pollute downstream water resources and decrease biodiversity, threatening 1.8 billion people and accelerating global warming.
Researchers argue that coincidences displace ice ages from predictions, making them harder to predict and potentially leading to abrupt changes. The analysis shows that the climate system is more chaotic than expected, with underlying periodic processes but also significant background noise.
A new CU Boulder-led study finds that abrupt permafrost thaw is a significant contributor to climate change, with potential carbon emissions doubling previous estimates. The rapid thawing of permafrost in the Arctic region has severe consequences on landscapes and ecosystems.
Tiny meteorites found in ancient soils suggest carbon dioxide made up 25-50 percent of Earth's atmosphere 2.7 billion years ago, indicating a warm planet. Lower nitrogen levels resulting from lower pressure would allow for both high CO2 and cool conditions.