Articles tagged with Climate Modeling
Researchers developed Ae DES to monitor and forecast environmental suitability for transmission of Zika, dengue fever, chikungunya and other diseases. The system combines multiple R0 models with climate information, generating probabilistic forecasts that are robust due to a large sample size.
Climate models struggle with reducing uncertainty in global temperature predictions and predicting tipping points, which pose a major threat to modern societies. A new review outlines a more effective approach to perform better climate simulations and extract more information from models.
Scientists have made a major breakthrough in predicting North Atlantic pressure patterns, which drive European and eastern North American winter weather. The study suggests that decadal variations in atmospheric pressure are highly predictable, enabling advanced warnings of extreme weather events.
A new study suggests electric fans and self-dousing with water could effectively cool people at home during extreme heat. Researchers found that up to 65% of the US population could stay cool on all summer days using this strategy.
University of Utah researchers found that Salt Lake City's buildings will require less natural gas for heating and more electricity for cooling as temperatures rise. The study suggests that local building policy can impact energy use in the future, with multi-family apartment buildings expected to grow in number.
A new study uses satellite data to understand global cloud composition during the industrial revolution, finding that early-industrial aerosol concentrations were much higher than estimated by climate models. This could mean human-generated atmospheric aerosols are not having as strong a cooling effect as previously thought.
The study assesses the simulation performance for global precipitation and summer hemispheric precipitation using CMIP6 datasets. The GMMIP simulation significantly exceeds the historical experiment, especially in terms of fidelity to different timescales.
A high-resolution climate simulation reveals significantly increased precipitation over the monsoon trough due to global warming, driven by tropical disturbances and enhanced water vapor. The study also found distinct trends in water vapor and a stronger effect of global sea surface temperature increases on precipitation.
The Greenland Ice Sheet holds enough water to raise sea levels nearly 24 feet. A new project, GreenDrill, aims to drill through the ice to the underlying bedrock, revealing the ice sheet's past in unprecedented detail and enabling more accurate predictions of how it may add to rising seas.
Researchers at Argonne National Laboratory developed new global models to study the impact of environmental controllers on soil organic carbon, reducing uncertainty in predicting climate change impacts. The models improve the spatial representation of soil organic carbon in Earth system models.
Researchers developed a deep learning method that enhances global climate models' ability to predict wind velocity and solar irradiance data, leading to more accurate renewable energy prospects. The approach results in high-resolution modeling under various climate scenarios.
A recent study evaluates proxy-based reconstructions and model simulations for past temperature changes, finding that uncertainties increase over time. The results show that climate modeling results are less reliable than proxy-based reconstructions, especially during Medieval times.
George Mason University Associate Professor Cristiana Stan will collaborate with the US Department of Energy on a climate modeling project. She will provide program expertise in E3SM, a state-of-the-science Earth system model addressing energy sector challenges.
A new study suggests that challenges simulating clouds are causing some climate models to be more sensitive to carbon dioxide, potentially leading to a warmer future. The updated models have shown a greater range of responses than previous generations, with some models showing higher sensitivity and others lower.
The new FOCI system allows for high-resolution ocean and climate modelling over centuries to millennia, enabling researchers to study natural climate fluctuations and anthropogenic climate change. With its modular design, FOCI can be configured to investigate various research questions and improve the accuracy of model simulations.
A new study found that seasonal growth and destruction of sea ice enhances marine life, drawing down carbon from the atmosphere and storing it in the deep ocean. This process could provide a critical resource for developing future climate change models.
A new study using statistical mechanics improves climate prediction accuracy for IPCC-class models, bridging gap between scenarios and models. This approach enables real-time scenario construction and facilitates the assessment of tipping points, a crucial aspect of understanding climate change.
Researchers evaluated 40 climate models focusing on Antarctic sea ice, finding improvements in projections compared to previous models. The study sheds light on dynamics in the Southern Ocean surrounding Antarctica, essential for understanding global climate changes.
New research from the Institute of Atmospheric Physics suggests a future intensification of the WNPSH under RCP 8.5, leading to stronger East Asian summer monsoon and increased rainfall but reduced typhoon landfalls over East Asia. However, this may also imply increased risk of heatwaves in southern and eastern China.
Researchers found that solar geoengineering schemes could weaken extratropical storm tracks in both hemispheres, leading to less powerful winter storms but also stagnant conditions and reduced wind. The study's results have significant implications for understanding the potential effects of climate engineering on global weather patterns.
Researchers warn that a violent Philippine volcanic eruption could lead to an El Niño event, intense polar vortex, and Eurasian warming. The Taal volcano's ongoing eruption has the potential to produce hazardous consequences for the Earth's climate.
Research by the University of Exeter suggests that climate change could lead to sudden changes in British vegetation, particularly in regions with warmer and wetter conditions. This increase in plant growth is expected due to factors such as CO2 fertilization, but soil drying out can also cause rapid decreases in vegetation productivity.
A new study suggests that farmland requiring irrigation could increase to 1.8 billion hectares, far exceeding current projections, with potential consequences for water resources, biodiversity, and climate change.
CU Boulder researchers developed a method to predict ocean acidity up to five years in advance, providing crucial information for fisheries and communities. The new approach leverages historical climate model forecasts to improve prediction accuracy.
Climate researchers question CESM2 model's extreme warming projections, citing geological evidence from a 50-million-year-old warming period. The study highlights the need to benchmark climate models using geological data to ensure accurate predictions.
A new study investigates the biogeophysical impacts of forestation on European climate, revealing that a continent covered in trees would generate up to one degree of extra seasonal heating in winter. The research used a multi-model ensemble approach and compared two ideal scenarios: a forested Europe and a grassland-covered Europe.
A new study predicts that climate change risks to biodiversity will surge suddenly, with up to 15% of ecosystems facing irreversible damage by 2100. This is due to a 'series of cliff edges' where species face conditions they've never experienced before, leading to extinction.
A new theoretical model breaks down vertical atmospheric movement into dry and moist components, explaining regional patterns of extreme precipitation sensitivity. The model suggests that climate warming impacts vary by latitude, with the dry component dominating in mid-latitudes.
Researchers predict that northern peatlands will remain carbon sinks until the end of this century, but their sink capacity will be substantially reduced after 2050. The modeling study aimed to address these concerns and highlighted the importance of peatlands in the global carbon cycle.
A team of researchers discovered pristinely preserved forest soil from the Cretaceous, including plant pollen and spores, in West Antarctica. The soil confirms that the region was home to temperate, swampy rainforests with an annual mean temperature of 12 degrees Celsius, much warmer than today's South Pole.
A new Stanford study found that historical observations can lead to significant underestimates of extreme weather events by about half, particularly heat waves and heavy rainfall in Europe, East Asia, and the U.S. Climate models were more accurate in predicting future occurrence of record-setting events.
A study using crop models and climate simulations found that a limited nuclear war in South Asia could decrease global temperature by 1.8ºC and precipitation by 8% over the first 5 years, resulting in significant yield losses and food shortages worldwide.
A new climate change model developed by Purdue University researchers projects a 10%-20% increase in electricity and 2%-5% increase in water demand in the Midwest due to global warming. The model considers multiple climate variables, including temperature, humidity, wind speed, and large-scale phenomena like El Niño.
The new E3SM model can capture complex climate-generating behavior with high resolution, simulating regional climate and built infrastructure. It will help predict how changes in climate and water cycling respond to increasing CO2.
Researchers unveiled new methods to decode climate system behavior, develop recyclable composites, and explore alternative energy sources. These advancements aim to improve climate predictions, provide cost-effective adaptation strategies, and promote sustainable practices.
A new study by University of Exeter researchers has found that Arctic warming does not drive a more meandering jet stream, despite earlier studies suggesting a link between the two. The research suggests random fluctuations in the jet stream influencing Arctic temperatures may be behind any observed correlation.
Climate-driven farming in 'frontiers' could pollute downstream water resources and decrease biodiversity, threatening 1.8 billion people and accelerating global warming.
Researchers argue that coincidences displace ice ages from predictions, making them harder to predict and potentially leading to abrupt changes. The analysis shows that the climate system is more chaotic than expected, with underlying periodic processes but also significant background noise.
A new CU Boulder-led study finds that abrupt permafrost thaw is a significant contributor to climate change, with potential carbon emissions doubling previous estimates. The rapid thawing of permafrost in the Arctic region has severe consequences on landscapes and ecosystems.
Tiny meteorites found in ancient soils suggest carbon dioxide made up 25-50 percent of Earth's atmosphere 2.7 billion years ago, indicating a warm planet. Lower nitrogen levels resulting from lower pressure would allow for both high CO2 and cool conditions.
A study using quahog clam shells and climate models reveals Arctic sea ice can't 'bounce back' if climate change causes it to melt. Human activity is now massively forcing the system, exacerbating warming and sea ice loss.
Researchers have developed an optimal climate model configuration for Southeast Asia, addressing the region's complex topography and monsoon climate. The customized RegCM4.7 model improves precipitation reproduction and simulates weather and climate extremes with enhanced accuracy.
Researchers found Antarctic waters had changed by comparing shipboard measurements with robot float data, revealing larger-than-predicted warming and oxygen loss around the Antarctic coast. The team improved climate models to better reflect environmental changes, which could impact predictions of ice melt.
A team of meteorologists found no consistent evidence for decadal oscillatory signals in global surface temperature observations. The researchers suggest that any apparent oscillation may be due to external influences like greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions. The study has implications for decade-scale climate predictability.
A group of scientists has conducted a new analysis that concludes the 'weather-is-not-climate' paradigm is no longer applicable. They found that daily weather data can reveal long-term warming trends, provided global spatial patterns are considered.
Researchers from the University of Copenhagen have discovered a phenomenon where certain gas molecules produce more harmful particles as NOx emissions decrease. This knowledge can help politicians adopt better measures to combat air pollution and improve climate models.
Chinese scientists made significant contributions to climate studies, including statistical analyses of temperature and precipitation changes. They studied the formation mechanisms of climate disasters and extreme events, laying the physical foundation for climate disaster prediction in China.
The study reviews a new method called emergent constraints, which uses current climate information to constrain future climate evolution. This approach aims to reduce uncertainties in climate sensitivity and improve the accuracy of climate model projections.
A new modelling strategy is required to address challenges in understanding global warming, with a focus on reducing biases through physically based models. International initiatives are needed to co-develop modelling systems that exploit emerging technologies and exascale computing.
An international research team has called for a more sober discourse around climate change prospects, highlighting the understatement of potential warming's speed and the scope for practical mitigation. Despite this, global decarbonization has accelerated to trend on course to achieve the Paris 2C target.
Research suggests that bacteria and archaea, collectively known as prokaryotes, will increase their carbon output in response to higher temperatures. The study found that most prokaryotes will speed up their metabolism and produce more carbon dioxide, contributing to climate change.
Climate scientists have found that individual climate models may not provide the complete picture of the Earth's climate sensitivity due to underestimated internal climate variability. Combining uncertainty from multiple models yields wider distributions, improving long-term predictions.
A new study found that changes in high-altitude winds over the South Pacific produce fundamental effects on ocean circulation and the stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. The research also reveals closer atmospheric ties between mid-latitudes and the tropics, with significant implications for global climate mechanisms.
Researchers recorded persistent drizzle at temperatures below minus 13 degrees Fahrenheit in Antarctica, with the presence of low concentrations of airborne particles contributing to its formation. The findings have implications for improving the accuracy of climate models in polar regions.
The study found that the monsoon system's development was more sensitive to changes in geography than carbon dioxide levels. The monsoon peaked around five million years ago, with 'super-monsoons' stronger than today. Understanding its behavior is crucial for agriculture and industrial development of over 1.5 billion people.
An international team of researchers has been awarded a $10 million European Research Council Synergy Grant to develop machine learning algorithms for enhancing Earth observation datasets. They will also develop machine-learning-based parametrizations for clouds and land-surface processes to improve climate modeling.
A team from ISGlobal developed a new statistical climate model that can predict El Niño episodes up to two-and-a-half years in advance, improving long-term forecasts. The model uses sea temperatures and winds in the tropical Pacific as predictor variables.
A new study found that tiny particles formed in the tropics can brighten lower-level clouds, which may impact global cooling predictions. The research used measurements from a massive airborne study to understand how these particles form and contribute to cloud properties.
Researchers evaluated the accuracy of a commonly used numerical model in hydrology, finding that its results can be difficult to interpret correctly even when properly calibrated. The study recommends using a combination model called SWATmf to improve representation of hydrologic systems.
A novel approach developed by Lehigh University researchers combines four steps: climatology, hydrology, structural engineering, and risk assessment to predict the impact of climate change on bridges. The model reveals that a 20-year flood may become a 13-year flood at the end of the century, nearly doubling the frequency of flooding.