Articles tagged with Climate Modeling
A new modelling strategy is required to address challenges in understanding global warming, with a focus on reducing biases through physically based models. International initiatives are needed to co-develop modelling systems that exploit emerging technologies and exascale computing.
An international research team has called for a more sober discourse around climate change prospects, highlighting the understatement of potential warming's speed and the scope for practical mitigation. Despite this, global decarbonization has accelerated to trend on course to achieve the Paris 2C target.
Climate scientists have found that individual climate models may not provide the complete picture of the Earth's climate sensitivity due to underestimated internal climate variability. Combining uncertainty from multiple models yields wider distributions, improving long-term predictions.
Research suggests that bacteria and archaea, collectively known as prokaryotes, will increase their carbon output in response to higher temperatures. The study found that most prokaryotes will speed up their metabolism and produce more carbon dioxide, contributing to climate change.
Researchers recorded persistent drizzle at temperatures below minus 13 degrees Fahrenheit in Antarctica, with the presence of low concentrations of airborne particles contributing to its formation. The findings have implications for improving the accuracy of climate models in polar regions.
A new study found that changes in high-altitude winds over the South Pacific produce fundamental effects on ocean circulation and the stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. The research also reveals closer atmospheric ties between mid-latitudes and the tropics, with significant implications for global climate mechanisms.
The study found that the monsoon system's development was more sensitive to changes in geography than carbon dioxide levels. The monsoon peaked around five million years ago, with 'super-monsoons' stronger than today. Understanding its behavior is crucial for agriculture and industrial development of over 1.5 billion people.
An international team of researchers has been awarded a $10 million European Research Council Synergy Grant to develop machine learning algorithms for enhancing Earth observation datasets. They will also develop machine-learning-based parametrizations for clouds and land-surface processes to improve climate modeling.
A team from ISGlobal developed a new statistical climate model that can predict El Niño episodes up to two-and-a-half years in advance, improving long-term forecasts. The model uses sea temperatures and winds in the tropical Pacific as predictor variables.
A new study found that tiny particles formed in the tropics can brighten lower-level clouds, which may impact global cooling predictions. The research used measurements from a massive airborne study to understand how these particles form and contribute to cloud properties.
Researchers evaluated the accuracy of a commonly used numerical model in hydrology, finding that its results can be difficult to interpret correctly even when properly calibrated. The study recommends using a combination model called SWATmf to improve representation of hydrologic systems.
A novel approach developed by Lehigh University researchers combines four steps: climatology, hydrology, structural engineering, and risk assessment to predict the impact of climate change on bridges. The model reveals that a 20-year flood may become a 13-year flood at the end of the century, nearly doubling the frequency of flooding.
Historical regime shifts in coastal wetlands of northeastern Florida indicate mangrove expansion is linked to reduced extreme cold events. Climate model projections suggest increasing temperatures and suitability for mangroves through the end of the 21st century.
Researchers at the University of Michigan used a state-of-the-art climate model to simulate the extreme warming of the Early Eocene Period, finding that the rate of warming increased dramatically as carbon dioxide levels rose. The simulations suggest that future warming could accelerate due to an increase in climate sensitivity.
A new study estimates that the Mount Tambora eruption significantly contributed to the 1816 'year without a summer', with observed cold conditions almost impossible without the event. The wet conditions were also more likely, increasing by 1.5-3 times without volcanic forcing.
Researchers suggest that spherical models could underestimate climate phenomena due to reduced aerosol cooling, which might lead to inaccurate projections. The study's findings have implications for climate modeling and the accuracy of predictions.
A new study finds Europe's summers are becoming hotter and winters colder, with extreme heat days tripling since 1950. This accelerates the region's warming, impacting cities unprepared for rising temperatures.
A Rutgers-led study confirms extreme impacts from US vs. Russia nuclear war, predicting a global temperature drop of over 15 degrees Fahrenheit and a 90% reduction in growing seasons.
Researchers mapped out how much waves are likely to change around the globe under climate change, finding that limiting warming to 2 degrees would keep signals of wave climate change within natural variability. However, 48% of the world's coast is at risk if we don't limit warming, with changes in wave height, period, or direction.
A new study published in Nature Climate Change offers a roadmap for detecting changes in the ocean due to climate change. The research found that sea temperature rise and ocean acidification have already emerged, while other impacts such as changes in ocean microbes will take several decades to a century to appear.
Experts recommend altering the insurance industry by investing in open-source risk models to enhance society's ability to recover from disasters linked to climate change. The models should provide a long-term view of climate risk and link to insurance solutions.
A new study predicts that the Arctic Ocean could be completely ice-free in September if global temperatures increase by as little as 2 degrees Celsius. This finding highlights the potential consequences of limiting warming to 2 degrees, a goal of the Paris Agreement.
Climate change is expected to exacerbate China's air pollution issues, leading to increased mortality rates. The study predicts that nearly 40% of the additional deaths could be attributed to atmospheric stagnation events and heat waves.
Scientists studied a massive wildfire smoke plume that lasted for nearly nine months, providing an ideal opportunity to test climate models. The findings show that black carbon was key to the plume's rapid rise and persistence, challenging previous nuclear winter studies.
A study of 12 centuries of European summer droughts reveals that recent changes in drought patterns are not unprecedented. The research team found that climate models exaggerate temperature-driven drought risk in northern Europe, while underestimating excessive precipitation and flood risks.
A new study uses ancient plankton fossils to infer temperature data from the Pliocene era, a geological epoch with CO2 levels similar to today's. The findings resolve discrepancies between climate models and other proxy temperature measurements, showing that the Pliocene is a good analog for future climate predictions.
Researchers have used radiokrypton dating to analyze groundwater in the Negev desert, revealing two distinct sources of ancient water that date back 400,000 years. The study suggests that moisture was delivered from the Atlantic Ocean during cooler climates, providing a unique insight into the region's past hydro-climates.
A new reconstruction of global average surface temperature change over the past 2,000 years identified the main causes for decade-scale climate changes. The researchers found that airborne particles from volcanic eruptions were primarily responsible for several brief episodes of global cooling prior to the Industrial Revolution.
Researchers found drastic drops in organic material preserved in core samples from the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum event, suggesting soils emitted atmospheric carbon dioxide. The findings could mean global climate models overestimate terrestrial ecosystems' ability to mitigate future warming.
A new study suggests that reducing China's ozone pollution can prevent hundreds of thousands of premature deaths by 2050. The research found that climate change alone could cause a 11% increase in ozone pollution, leading to an additional 62,000 premature deaths.
The FGOALS-f3-L climate model has been developed to capture the basic patterns of atmospheric circulation and precipitation. The new model is fast in completing computing tasks and overcomes some model biases related to climate sensitivity and cloud microphysics.
Scientists have made significant advancements in measuring global ice sheet mass using satellite imaging and remote sensing equipment, allowing for greater detail than ever before. This improves the connection between climate variations and ice mass changes over time.
A new statistical approach calculates the likelihood of an ice-free Arctic Ocean at different warming levels, finding a 6% chance at 1.5°C and 28% at 2°C. The research suggests a sea ice-free summer Arctic Ocean is most likely to occur at 2-2.5°C warming.
A recent study published in Journal of Climate confirms that the Tibetan Plateau plays a key role in enhancing East Asian summer monsoon circulation under global warming. The study found that enhanced latent heating over the plateau stimulates cyclone anomalies, leading to stronger southerly winds in East Asia.
Researchers confirm that the tropical atmospheric circulation pattern, the Hadley cell, is weakening due to anthropogenic emissions. This finding has significant implications for predicting future subtropical rainfall and the drying of regions already receiving little rainfall.
Frontera, located at the University of Texas at Austin, achieved the highest scale and data analysis capabilities ever deployed at a university in the US. The system supports dozens of research teams aiming to solve massive computational problems, including climate simulations and machine learning-enabled cancer studies.
A new climate modeling approach suggests that social processes strongly affect global warming predictions, and mitigation efforts should account for this influence. The rate at which people learn about climate mitigation strategies via social interactions can raise warming predictions by over 1 degree Celsius.
A University of Guelph study found that including social processes in climate models can alter predictions and may hold the key to reducing global warming. Researchers developed a new model that accounts for social learning, finding that higher rates of social learning are needed to meet the 1.5-degree target.
Researchers at University of Maryland Baltimore County develop new method to measure atmospheric hydroxyl radicals, a key molecule involved in methane breakdown. This improvement can enhance the accuracy of climate models and inform policy decisions on reducing methane emissions.
The University of Copenhagen has opened a new research center, TiPES, to study climate tipping points and develop improved climate models. The center aims to better understand the mechanisms of sudden and violent changes in the climate system, which could trigger dramatic new climatic changes.
A study predicts that operating costs for US state parks will surpass state budgets by the middle of the century due to increasing visitor numbers. Climate change may exacerbate this trend, with some scenarios suggesting a 756% increase in operating costs under one scenario.
A climate model has been developed that accurately depicts the winding course of the jet stream, a major air current over the Northern Hemisphere. The new model shows that climate change is causing the jet stream to falter, leading to extreme weather conditions in Central Europe and North America.
A new numerical model suggests that plankton biomass controls the carbon cycle in the ocean, leading to a self-sustained 40k yr climate cycle. This finding challenges the standard theory of climate change driven by solar radiation and orbital forcing.
A team of scientists identified the tropical Pacific as a crucial factor in climate forecasting, with natural climatic fluctuations affecting future climate development. Better ocean data, particularly subsurface data, can improve predictions significantly.
A Northwestern University study concludes that human-caused climate change played only a minor role in the city's record-breaking air pollution event. Researchers suggest that reducing greenhouse gas emissions can greatly improve air quality and mitigate health problems, making it a win-win for public health and the environment.
Researchers reconstructed Greenland Ice Sheet mass changes from 1972 to 2018 using data on ice velocity, thickness, and surface elevation. The study found a significant increase in ice loss, with an average of 290 Gt per year during 2010-2018, contributing to a 13.7 mm rise in global sea level.
Global climate models can adequately simulate temperature variability at timescales of years to multiple millennia. The study suggests that with correct initial and boundary conditions, particularly in the deep ocean, forecasting temperature variations becomes more feasible.
The North Atlantic warming hole has a significant impact on the North Atlantic jet stream, leading to changes in atmospheric circulation and storm tracks. The cooling pattern caused by the warming hole is predicted to become greater and more apparent as the century progresses.
Climate scientists are partnering with the City and County of San Francisco to assess how climate change may influence the intensity of atmospheric rivers and associated precipitation. Using high-resolution climate simulations at a resolution of 3 km, researchers aim to provide more accurate predictions about extreme weather events in ...
A new study reveals that recent intensification of the equatorial Pacific wind system known as Walker Circulation is unrelated to human influences and can be explained by natural processes. The observed strengthening of the Walker circulation from about 1990-2013 was a naturally occurring phenomenon, contrary to projections of anthropo...
Researchers found a slowdown of the Walker cell during solar-cycle maxima, shifting trade winds and precipitation patterns in the tropical Pacific. The study suggests that global hydrology and ocean-atmosphere coupling amplify the solar signal.
A new study by UChicago scientists found significant river runoff persisted on Mars later into its history than previously thought. The intense runoff, which was wider than those on Earth today, occurred at hundreds of locations and suggests a complex climate with strong greenhouse effects.
A new crop-climate coupled model simulates crop development and production, offering improved accuracy in climate predictions. The model successfully captures crop phenology and corrects biases in the original climate model, making it a valuable tool for global change studies.
Research from Oregon State University suggests that climate change could lead to a 52% increase in tropical storm-related deaths, mainly affecting vulnerable populations in developing countries. The study's findings are based on analyzing mortality data and simulating the impact of climate change on storm frequency and severity.
A team of scientists developed an approach to reduce uncertainties in future climate change by analyzing collective climate model projections. They found that certain aspects of the current climate are most related to differences in the future climate, and measurements can be used to select out the most likely future climates.
New research finds that smaller doses of solar geoengineering could work in tandem with emission cuts to lower the risks of a changing climate. The study suggests that no IPCC-defined region would be made worse off, with big uncertainties remaining but potentially uniform benefits across the globe.
A new study suggests that meeting a 2-degrees Celsius warming limit by 2100 is exceptionally difficult, but pursuing aggressive carbon-neutral energy production and rapid reductions can provide a hedge against high climate sensitivity scenarios. The researchers emphasize the need for immediate global action to mitigate climate change.
A team of scientists has uncovered new evidence that suggests central Tibet was no higher than 2.3km with large lakes fringed by subtropical vegetation and deep valleys. The discovery uses ancient palm leaves to challenge previous estimates of the region's elevation.
Scientists found that wind stress and its curl are key factors in simulating the Pacific North Equatorial Countercurrent. Weak biases in these models affect tropical surface currents and climate simulations.
A study predicts that Asian elephants in India and Nepal will face significant habitat loss, with potential shifts towards higher elevations in the Himalayas. The research suggests that climate change and land use will compound existing threats to elephant populations.