Articles tagged with Climate Modeling
A study by Berkeley Lab found that the Sierra Nevada snowpack could drop by 79% by 2100, leading to a shift in peak timing four weeks earlier. The researchers worked closely with water managers to produce 'actionable science' for resource planning purposes.
A recent study suggests that humans are accelerating a long-term cooling trend, tracing back at least 50 million years, with projected warming expected by 2030 and potentially reaching Eocene-like conditions by 2150. The research implies that the planet's climate may resemble that of the mid-Pliocene epoch within two centuries.
A new study reveals that human-caused climate change drives uneven sea level rise, with regions experiencing higher rates expected to continue trending. Climate models suggest that up to half of regional variation in sea level rise can be attributed to climate change.
A recent study analyzed climate simulations and found that sea-level rise trends are largely driven by external factors such as aerosols and greenhouse gas emissions. The researchers used satellite altimetry data to calculate the forced response in sea level, which showed significant correlation with internal variability.
A recent study found that pulses of organic carbon reaching the deep sea are not accurately represented in global climate models. The research, conducted at Station M off California's coast, showed a significant increase in pulse events between 2011 and 2017, with 40% of total carbon arriving during these episodes.
Researchers have discovered a universal power law describing black carbon's light absorption, which could help climate scientists build more accurate models. The findings suggest that warming due to black carbon may have been underestimated by current climate models.
The study found that Antarctic melting will delay atmospheric warming by about a decade but accelerate sea level rise. The global temperature is projected to increase by 2 degrees C by the year 2065, rather than 2053.
Dynamical downscaling methods aim to improve fine-scale climate information by integrating regional climate models with global climate models. Recent research reviewed these methods, highlighting their merits and limitations in constraining model biases through bias correction techniques.
Researchers analyzed data from over 185 ground stations and found that half of the world's measured precipitation falls within a 12-day period, set to become even more skewed under climate change. This uneven distribution could lead to increased flooding and damage associated with extreme weather events.
Researchers found that recent hurricanes like Katrina, Irma, and Maria experienced increased rainfall of 5-10%, while projected future storms could have even more intense rainfall and stronger winds. A warmer climate may also alter storm structures, with the inner part robbing moisture from the outer edges.
A recent study predicts ragweed will expand its range northward due to climate change, reaching areas including New York and Vermont. The plant's distribution is expected to surge in the eastern US by the 2050s before declining slightly in the following decades.
A predictive model suggests common ragweed will expand its range into major northeast metro areas due to climate change, affecting millions with hay fever and asthma. The study found potential expansion at the northern margins of its current distribution, particularly in the northeast U.S.
Researchers suggest water availability, not carbon dioxide levels, drove the emergence of C4 plants, which supplemented the earlier C3 pathway. The C4 pathway enabled plants to make food with less water loss, gaining a competitive advantage in relatively arid environments.
A University of Houston graduate student has received a NASA fellowship to incorporate predictions of biogenic volatile organic compounds from vegetation into a climate model. The project aims to better understand the impact of extreme drought on emissions and atmospheric composition.
Climate scientists predict that extreme summers, like 2018, will continue if countries don't phase out fossil fuels; however, switching to cleaner coal-burning technology can mitigate this effect. Aerosols play a crucial role in regulating temperatures and cooling the planet.
A new ocean mixed layer model reproduces a more realistic sea surface temperature (SST) diurnal cycle than existing models. The 31-year global diurnal sea surface temperature dataset reveals significant seasonal and interannual variations of SST, with potential implications for ENSO prediction.
A new study from Berkeley Lab found that accounting for plant nutrient uptake at night and during non-growing seasons can weaken terrestrial ecosystem feedbacks with the atmosphere, leading to weaker greenhouse gas emissions. The study's findings imply that plants may be able to take up more carbon dioxide and soils lose less nitrous o...
A new computational model, PRYSM, has been developed to interpret climate data from lake sediments, revealing that lake temperature proxies underestimated air temperature changes. The model is designed to compare paleoclimate data with climate model simulations, aiming to improve interpretations of past climate changes.
Researchers found the Mekong River's incision in the Middle Miocene was caused by an intensification of the Asian monsoon, rather than tectonic forces. The study used thermochronology and landscape models to confirm synchronous downcutting along the river at 15-17 million years ago.
New research reveals climate models inaccurately represent recent air-pressure changes in Greenland, leading to uncertain projections for the UK and Europe. This may result in more frequent record wet summers if Greenland air pressure continues to strengthen.
The new interactive scenario explorer provides a curated set of 414 climate scenarios developed by over a dozen research teams worldwide. The tool facilitates better understanding of synergies and trade-offs between climate change mitigation and sustainable development, and is freely accessible to the public.
Researchers found that plants with thicker leaves under high CO2 levels may exacerbate climate change by reducing carbon sequestration. This response could lead to an extra 5.8 petagrams of carbon in the atmosphere per year, similar to human-generated emissions.
A new study suggests that climate change may be driving electricity demand higher than predicted by existing models. The researchers used mean dew point temperature and extreme maximum temperature as key predictors of increased energy demand, finding significant discrepancies with traditional models.
Researchers from the University of California, Irvine, and other institutions have developed a new method using deep machine learning to simulate cloud physics. The approach achieved stable and accurate multiyear simulations that included realistic precipitation extremes and tropical waves.
A new study published in Science shows that large-scale solar and wind farms in the Sahara could more than double precipitation, increase vegetation cover by up to 20%, and lead to substantial improvements in rainfed agriculture. The findings have major implications for addressing sustainability challenges in the Energy-Water-Food nexus.
A new study suggests that ancient farming practices led to a rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide and methane, altering the climate. Without human influence, the planet would have likely experienced another ice age by the start of the Industrial Revolution.
A new study by University of Bristol scientists reveals that ancient global warming was associated with more intense and episodic rainfall events. The Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum showed increased rainfall in some areas, decreased in others, but a significant increase in extreme event frequency.
Researchers found that air temperature feedback, a process linking atmosphere and surface, amplifies surface warming in response to external forcing. This feedback kernel measures the ability of temperature feedback to amplify surface warming.
A multi-national collaborative study found that the record number of tropical cyclones in 2005 is close to the maximum number that might occur in the North Atlantic given existing climate conditions. The study used climate models to estimate this maximum number, which was found to be relatively low.
Researchers found that low-resolution climate models fail to capture the complexity of regional rainfall systems, leading to underestimated projections. High-resolution models, on the other hand, project large increases in summer rainfall under certain scenarios.
A new method predicts mean air temperature will be abnormally high in 2018-2022, higher than figures inferred from anthropogenic global warming alone. This is due to a low probability of intense cold events and a high probability of heat events, leading to increased tropical storm activity.
Researchers argue that CO2's role in radiative forcing can be calculated with less uncertainty than current models suggest. The study suggests that incorporating line-by-line (LBL) calculations into climate models could reduce uncertainty in climate projections.
A computer simulation model developed by researchers at the University of Connecticut and others reveals how topography and climate change drive evolutionary adaptation and extinction. The model accurately reproduces maps of present-day species diversity, suggesting that changing climate during glacial cycles is a key factor in shaping...
Scientists have found that dramatic clearing events in the southeast Atlantic Ocean are triggered by atmospheric waves, disrupting low-lying clouds off the coast of subtropical Africa. This discovery could improve climate models' representation of marine low clouds and their response to a warming climate.
Researchers found that past warming events suggest climate models underestimate long-term warming and amplification of warmth in polar regions. Sea levels may rise six meters or more even if the world meets the 2°C target, according to an international team of researchers from 17 countries.
The regional climate modeling community has made significant progress in developing regional earth system models (RESMs), which account for the atmosphere, ocean, land, sea ice, and other key components. Researchers highlight the need for further development, including the inclusion of human factors and interactive biosphere elements.
Researchers conducted an international survey to assess the importance of variables in climate models. They found consensus on certain variables like rainfall and evaporation but disagreement on others like surface winds. The study highlights the need for more systematic approaches to model assessment, which will aid in evaluating new ...
Researchers used machine learning to improve cloud representation in climate models, which is crucial for predicting global warming and greenhouse gas concentrations. The approach, called Cloud Brain, demonstrates promising results in fully coupled climate models.
Climate change-induced tropical circulation slowdowns are linked to poleward Hadley cell expansion and intertropical convergence zone shifts. Regional precipitation redistribution involves complex thermodynamic and dynamical processes, including surface warming effects over oceans and land.
A recent study by Prof. Xuejie Gao and colleagues found that China's population will experience a six-fold increase in very hot days by the end of the 21st century, affecting over 0.2 billion people with no exposure to cooling. The region from Yangtze River valley to North China will see the largest increase in thermal stress.
New research published in Icarus suggests Mars had a cold and icy ancient climate, with evidence of volcanism interacting with ice sheets. The findings identify three distinct mineral combinations associated with glaciers, providing insight into the planet's past.
A new journal paper highlights the limitations of economic models in assessing climate change impacts, particularly at moderate to high levels of warming. The authors argue that current models inadequately account for tipping points and uncertainties, leading to large discrepancies between scientific and economic estimates.
Two UNIST faculty members, Professor Myong-In Lee and Professor Dong Hyun Cha, have received top government awards for their outstanding contributions to urban meteorology and climatology. They were recognized for their research on climate change, disaster risks, and regional climate modeling.
A new analysis projects a 4°C temperature increase by 2084, more severe than the 2°C threshold set by the Paris Agreement. This would lead to extreme weather events, ecosystem disruption, and societal threats.
A new study suggests that wind could be a more significant source of energy generation due to increased winds in the UK and northern Europe. The research predicts a 10% increase in onshore wind energy generation, enough to power an additional 700,000 homes per year.
A new method for projecting warming patterns supports substantial global warming but indicates significant variations in regions. Historically-driven climate approaches complement complex global models, providing more reliable regional climate projections.
Researchers found substantially higher uncertainty than assumed in current climate change studies, with a median per capita output growth rate of 2.03% per year. This new understanding of uncertainty will affect policy planning globally.
Scientists have quantified sea temperatures in ancient oceans using fossil data and climate models. The research reveals high-latitude seas were around 20-25°C, similar to recent greenhouse climates.
The Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) simulates the Earth's atmosphere, oceanic, land and ice components together. The new model can help researchers anticipate decadal-scale changes that could influence the U.S. energy sector.
New research suggests that poor countries will experience significant increases in temperature variability due to climate change. The study found that up to 15% more extreme temperature fluctuations are predicted for southern Africa and Amazonia, highlighting the unfair pattern of climate impacts on vulnerable populations.
A new study found that scientific models used to determine which species and habitats to protect lack critical information, leading to ineffective conservation efforts. The research highlights the need for more accurate species distribution models to target conservation efforts in areas with the most impact.
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) has slowed down by about 15 percent since the 1950s, with recent years showing a record low. This weakening is linked to rising carbon dioxide levels and impacts fish distributions, ocean temperatures, and fisheries in the Northeast U.S. Shelf.
Researchers at UChicago developed a new mathematical method to accurately predict the shape and melting effects of ponds on Arctic sea ice. This technique, known as the 'void' model, could help improve climate forecasts and understanding by addressing discrepancies in previous models.
Researchers estimate early Earth's climate as temperate, with temperatures ranging from 0-50 °C. Ocean pH increased steadily from acidic to mildly basic over the past 4 billion years.
A new climate model, POEM, has been developed by Russian and German scientists to accelerate research in climate science. The model addresses complex tasks such as ice age periodization and climate forecasting, providing a more efficient alternative to existing models.
Researchers have developed a high-resolution climate model that accurately simulates the interaction between aerosols and clouds. The model shows that increasing aerosol density can lead to a decrease in cloud cover in certain areas, contradicting previous assumptions.
Brown University researchers discovered that mesoscale eddies in the global ocean tend to merge into larger ones, unlike smaller eddies which break up into smaller scales. This finding could help develop coarser-grained ocean simulations that better capture ocean dynamics.
A Stanford University study found that even a 1-degree difference between the UN goal and country commitments may increase extreme weather likelihood. The researchers predict a fivefold increase in record-breaking warm nights over Europe and a threefold increase in record-breaking wet days over North America, Europe, and East Asia.
The G-Range model allows for single-process global simulations, providing insights into rangeland resilience to climate change. It supports policymakers in making informed decisions on rangeland management policies and practices.
A new climate study found that recent temperatures across North America and Europe are unusually high, exceeding past decade highs by 0.5 degrees Fahrenheit, and have few natural precedents over the last 11,000 years. The research suggests that human activity has significantly contributed to this warming trend.