Articles tagged with Climate Modeling
A new study predicts the Arctic Ocean could be ice-free in the summer as early as 2030, with climate models suggesting a shift towards an ice-free Arctic on the earlier side of forecasts. The study used long-term temperature cycles in the tropical Pacific to narrow the uncertainty range of when the first ice-free Arctic summer will occur.
A new study suggests that high CO2 levels above 1,200 ppm could lead to the loss of low-level clouds, resulting in a 8-Kelvin temperature increase globally. The researchers used a small-scale model to simulate cloud instability and found that once the clouds vanish, they do not reappear until CO2 levels drop significantly.
Scientists from Institute of Atmospheric Physics found a strong relationship between historical precipitation biases in South Asia and the western North Pacific and future Sahel precipitation projections. The study reveals a 109% increase in Sahel summer precipitation and a 119% increase in available water resources due to global warming.
Researchers from Canada and Germany used a supercomputer to simulate climate trends in Quebec and Bavaria from 1950 to 2100, providing insights into severe flooding dynamics under changing climate conditions. The study's results showed good agreement with historical climate data, confirming the predictive power of the simulations.
A study by German scientists uses AI to enhance climate and Earth system models, improving predictions for extreme events and seasonal changes. By combining physical modeling with machine learning techniques, researchers aim to create more accurate models that capture complex dynamic processes.
A new model developed by the University of Illinois predicts how ground shipping will affect future human health and the environment. The study found that a carbon tax could lead to a 24% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, while enforcing truck fleet maintenance could cut particulate emissions by one-third by 2050.
A new review paper by international climate experts highlights the prospects for skilful near-term climate predictions, out to just a few years ahead. These enhanced models feature the effects of man-made greenhouse gases and natural drivers, providing valuable information for policymakers and aid agencies.
New evaluation tools and global climate models will enable a more complete comparison of models to ground-based and satellite measurements. This combination can significantly reduce uncertainties in key aspects of future climate change, according to a study published in Nature Climate Change.
A team of climate researchers reviewed existing data and concluded there has never been a statistically significant 'pause' in global warming. The studies, published in Environmental Research Letters, reassessed the data and put it into historical context to find no evidence for a divergence between model projections and observations.
Researchers disentangled 'hiatus' confusion by analyzing global surface temperature data and comparing model projections to observations. They found no statistical evidence of a pause or slowdown in global warming.
Scientists and engineers will collaborate on a new Climate Modeling Alliance to advance climate modeling and prediction. The goal is a climate model that projects future changes more accurately, with uncertainties at least half the size of existing models.
A new study reveals that the Indian Ocean played a far greater role in driving climate change during the last ice age and may disrupt climate again in the future. The research found that changes in ocean temperatures and winds drove radical climate shifts, challenging Pacific-centric theories.
A study by Berkeley Lab found that the Sierra Nevada snowpack could drop by 79% by 2100, leading to a shift in peak timing four weeks earlier. The researchers worked closely with water managers to produce 'actionable science' for resource planning purposes.
A recent study suggests that humans are accelerating a long-term cooling trend, tracing back at least 50 million years, with projected warming expected by 2030 and potentially reaching Eocene-like conditions by 2150. The research implies that the planet's climate may resemble that of the mid-Pliocene epoch within two centuries.
A recent study analyzed climate simulations and found that sea-level rise trends are largely driven by external factors such as aerosols and greenhouse gas emissions. The researchers used satellite altimetry data to calculate the forced response in sea level, which showed significant correlation with internal variability.
A recent study found that pulses of organic carbon reaching the deep sea are not accurately represented in global climate models. The research, conducted at Station M off California's coast, showed a significant increase in pulse events between 2011 and 2017, with 40% of total carbon arriving during these episodes.
A new study reveals that human-caused climate change drives uneven sea level rise, with regions experiencing higher rates expected to continue trending. Climate models suggest that up to half of regional variation in sea level rise can be attributed to climate change.
Researchers have discovered a universal power law describing black carbon's light absorption, which could help climate scientists build more accurate models. The findings suggest that warming due to black carbon may have been underestimated by current climate models.
The study found that Antarctic melting will delay atmospheric warming by about a decade but accelerate sea level rise. The global temperature is projected to increase by 2 degrees C by the year 2065, rather than 2053.
Dynamical downscaling methods aim to improve fine-scale climate information by integrating regional climate models with global climate models. Recent research reviewed these methods, highlighting their merits and limitations in constraining model biases through bias correction techniques.
Researchers analyzed data from over 185 ground stations and found that half of the world's measured precipitation falls within a 12-day period, set to become even more skewed under climate change. This uneven distribution could lead to increased flooding and damage associated with extreme weather events.
Researchers found that recent hurricanes like Katrina, Irma, and Maria experienced increased rainfall of 5-10%, while projected future storms could have even more intense rainfall and stronger winds. A warmer climate may also alter storm structures, with the inner part robbing moisture from the outer edges.
A predictive model suggests common ragweed will expand its range into major northeast metro areas due to climate change, affecting millions with hay fever and asthma. The study found potential expansion at the northern margins of its current distribution, particularly in the northeast U.S.
A recent study predicts ragweed will expand its range northward due to climate change, reaching areas including New York and Vermont. The plant's distribution is expected to surge in the eastern US by the 2050s before declining slightly in the following decades.
Researchers suggest water availability, not carbon dioxide levels, drove the emergence of C4 plants, which supplemented the earlier C3 pathway. The C4 pathway enabled plants to make food with less water loss, gaining a competitive advantage in relatively arid environments.
A University of Houston graduate student has received a NASA fellowship to incorporate predictions of biogenic volatile organic compounds from vegetation into a climate model. The project aims to better understand the impact of extreme drought on emissions and atmospheric composition.
Climate scientists predict that extreme summers, like 2018, will continue if countries don't phase out fossil fuels; however, switching to cleaner coal-burning technology can mitigate this effect. Aerosols play a crucial role in regulating temperatures and cooling the planet.
A new ocean mixed layer model reproduces a more realistic sea surface temperature (SST) diurnal cycle than existing models. The 31-year global diurnal sea surface temperature dataset reveals significant seasonal and interannual variations of SST, with potential implications for ENSO prediction.
A new study from Berkeley Lab found that accounting for plant nutrient uptake at night and during non-growing seasons can weaken terrestrial ecosystem feedbacks with the atmosphere, leading to weaker greenhouse gas emissions. The study's findings imply that plants may be able to take up more carbon dioxide and soils lose less nitrous o...
A new computational model, PRYSM, has been developed to interpret climate data from lake sediments, revealing that lake temperature proxies underestimated air temperature changes. The model is designed to compare paleoclimate data with climate model simulations, aiming to improve interpretations of past climate changes.
New research reveals climate models inaccurately represent recent air-pressure changes in Greenland, leading to uncertain projections for the UK and Europe. This may result in more frequent record wet summers if Greenland air pressure continues to strengthen.
Researchers found the Mekong River's incision in the Middle Miocene was caused by an intensification of the Asian monsoon, rather than tectonic forces. The study used thermochronology and landscape models to confirm synchronous downcutting along the river at 15-17 million years ago.
The new interactive scenario explorer provides a curated set of 414 climate scenarios developed by over a dozen research teams worldwide. The tool facilitates better understanding of synergies and trade-offs between climate change mitigation and sustainable development, and is freely accessible to the public.
Researchers found that plants with thicker leaves under high CO2 levels may exacerbate climate change by reducing carbon sequestration. This response could lead to an extra 5.8 petagrams of carbon in the atmosphere per year, similar to human-generated emissions.
A new study suggests that climate change may be driving electricity demand higher than predicted by existing models. The researchers used mean dew point temperature and extreme maximum temperature as key predictors of increased energy demand, finding significant discrepancies with traditional models.
Researchers from the University of California, Irvine, and other institutions have developed a new method using deep machine learning to simulate cloud physics. The approach achieved stable and accurate multiyear simulations that included realistic precipitation extremes and tropical waves.
A new study published in Science shows that large-scale solar and wind farms in the Sahara could more than double precipitation, increase vegetation cover by up to 20%, and lead to substantial improvements in rainfed agriculture. The findings have major implications for addressing sustainability challenges in the Energy-Water-Food nexus.
A new study suggests that ancient farming practices led to a rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide and methane, altering the climate. Without human influence, the planet would have likely experienced another ice age by the start of the Industrial Revolution.
A new study by University of Bristol scientists reveals that ancient global warming was associated with more intense and episodic rainfall events. The Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum showed increased rainfall in some areas, decreased in others, but a significant increase in extreme event frequency.
Researchers found that air temperature feedback, a process linking atmosphere and surface, amplifies surface warming in response to external forcing. This feedback kernel measures the ability of temperature feedback to amplify surface warming.
A multi-national collaborative study found that the record number of tropical cyclones in 2005 is close to the maximum number that might occur in the North Atlantic given existing climate conditions. The study used climate models to estimate this maximum number, which was found to be relatively low.
Researchers found that low-resolution climate models fail to capture the complexity of regional rainfall systems, leading to underestimated projections. High-resolution models, on the other hand, project large increases in summer rainfall under certain scenarios.
A new method predicts mean air temperature will be abnormally high in 2018-2022, higher than figures inferred from anthropogenic global warming alone. This is due to a low probability of intense cold events and a high probability of heat events, leading to increased tropical storm activity.
Researchers argue that CO2's role in radiative forcing can be calculated with less uncertainty than current models suggest. The study suggests that incorporating line-by-line (LBL) calculations into climate models could reduce uncertainty in climate projections.
A computer simulation model developed by researchers at the University of Connecticut and others reveals how topography and climate change drive evolutionary adaptation and extinction. The model accurately reproduces maps of present-day species diversity, suggesting that changing climate during glacial cycles is a key factor in shaping...
Scientists have found that dramatic clearing events in the southeast Atlantic Ocean are triggered by atmospheric waves, disrupting low-lying clouds off the coast of subtropical Africa. This discovery could improve climate models' representation of marine low clouds and their response to a warming climate.
Researchers found that past warming events suggest climate models underestimate long-term warming and amplification of warmth in polar regions. Sea levels may rise six meters or more even if the world meets the 2°C target, according to an international team of researchers from 17 countries.
The regional climate modeling community has made significant progress in developing regional earth system models (RESMs), which account for the atmosphere, ocean, land, sea ice, and other key components. Researchers highlight the need for further development, including the inclusion of human factors and interactive biosphere elements.
Researchers conducted an international survey to assess the importance of variables in climate models. They found consensus on certain variables like rainfall and evaporation but disagreement on others like surface winds. The study highlights the need for more systematic approaches to model assessment, which will aid in evaluating new ...
Researchers used machine learning to improve cloud representation in climate models, which is crucial for predicting global warming and greenhouse gas concentrations. The approach, called Cloud Brain, demonstrates promising results in fully coupled climate models.
Climate change-induced tropical circulation slowdowns are linked to poleward Hadley cell expansion and intertropical convergence zone shifts. Regional precipitation redistribution involves complex thermodynamic and dynamical processes, including surface warming effects over oceans and land.
A recent study by Prof. Xuejie Gao and colleagues found that China's population will experience a six-fold increase in very hot days by the end of the 21st century, affecting over 0.2 billion people with no exposure to cooling. The region from Yangtze River valley to North China will see the largest increase in thermal stress.
New research published in Icarus suggests Mars had a cold and icy ancient climate, with evidence of volcanism interacting with ice sheets. The findings identify three distinct mineral combinations associated with glaciers, providing insight into the planet's past.
A new journal paper highlights the limitations of economic models in assessing climate change impacts, particularly at moderate to high levels of warming. The authors argue that current models inadequately account for tipping points and uncertainties, leading to large discrepancies between scientific and economic estimates.
Two UNIST faculty members, Professor Myong-In Lee and Professor Dong Hyun Cha, have received top government awards for their outstanding contributions to urban meteorology and climatology. They were recognized for their research on climate change, disaster risks, and regional climate modeling.
A new analysis projects a 4°C temperature increase by 2084, more severe than the 2°C threshold set by the Paris Agreement. This would lead to extreme weather events, ecosystem disruption, and societal threats.
A new study suggests that wind could be a more significant source of energy generation due to increased winds in the UK and northern Europe. The research predicts a 10% increase in onshore wind energy generation, enough to power an additional 700,000 homes per year.
A new method for projecting warming patterns supports substantial global warming but indicates significant variations in regions. Historically-driven climate approaches complement complex global models, providing more reliable regional climate projections.
Researchers found substantially higher uncertainty than assumed in current climate change studies, with a median per capita output growth rate of 2.03% per year. This new understanding of uncertainty will affect policy planning globally.
Scientists have quantified sea temperatures in ancient oceans using fossil data and climate models. The research reveals high-latitude seas were around 20-25°C, similar to recent greenhouse climates.