Articles tagged with Climate Modeling
Research predicts an increase in water availability in the Blue Nile Basin of Ethiopia due to climate change, potentially allowing for two crops per year. However, increased sediment transport poses a challenge, highlighting the need for conservation practices and efficient irrigation development.
Biologists call for global data collection to improve model predictions for species response to climate change, citing a lack of key biological mechanisms and data as the main obstacle. A globally coordinated effort could greatly advance improvements in models and informed conservation approaches.
The US Department of Energy's Oak Ridge National Laboratory has received $39.8M in Exascale Computing Project funding to develop advanced modeling and simulation solutions for key DOE missions in science, clean energy, and national security.
Using high-resolution cloud models, researchers uncover the processes taking place in the atmosphere, revealing a 'memory' state of organisation that leads to heavy rain. Collisions between clouds produce heavier rain, contradicting traditional global climate models where convective clouds are seen as independent.
Scientists warn that global warming signals are masked by random weather variations, but expect increased snowfall in Antarctica due to higher moisture levels. The study concludes that the human influence on Antarctic surface mass balance will become detectable within the next few decades.
Climate researchers found that global climate models become increasingly uncertain when making predictions at scales below approximately 600 miles for temperature changes and 1200 miles for precipitation patterns. This makes it difficult to predict regional variations, such as the difference in warming between Indianapolis and Pittsburgh.
Researchers at Stockholm University and the University of Miami found that thin mid-level clouds in the tropics cool the climate by about 20 W m-2, significantly more than previously thought. This study aims to bridge gaps in knowledge about these challenging-to-study clouds.
Scientists from the AWI have correctly simulated the Eocene warm climate phase using climate models, overcoming a previous weakness due to misinterpreting the temperature indicator TEX86. The corrected temperatures reveal that the region was still warm enough for palm trees to grow on beaches.
A new study found that El Niño climate patterns contributed to a record-breaking marine heatwave in the Northeast Pacific Ocean, lasting for multiple years and affecting marine ecosystems. The research revealed 'teleconnections' between tropical and temperate latitudes, strengthening ocean warming patterns.
A Scripps Institution of Oceanography study found that cloudy storm tracks are moving toward the poles and subtropical dry zones are expanding, consistent with climate model predictions. The research confirms a human-caused increase in greenhouse gas concentrations and exacerbates global warming.
Researchers found large-scale patterns of cloud change between the 1980s and 2000s, including poleward retreat of mid-latitude storm tracks and expansion of subtropical dry zones, consistent with climate model predictions.
The Adélie penguin population in Antarctica is facing significant threats from climate change, with some colonies expected to decline by 30% by 2060 and 60% by 2099. Climate warming in certain regions has led to population declines, while cooling conditions have resulted in stable or increasing populations.
Robert DeConto, a leading expert on climate modeling, has won the 2016 Tinker-Muse Prize for Science and Policy in Antarctica. His research integrating geological data with modeling reveals likely consequences for future sea level rise from ice sheet melt.
A new study reveals that the type of soil used in agricultural models can significantly impact yield projections, particularly in regions with limited fertilizer or irrigation. This uncertainty highlights the need for improved soil observations to better adapt to climate change impacts on food production.
A team of physicists and mathematicians has developed a statistical technique to simulate small-scale phenomena in computer simulations, allowing for more accurate predictions. The method, published in Physical Review Letters, can capture the influence of cloud formation and reduce uncertainty in climate models.
A University of Utah study suggests that spring snowpack in higher elevations will be more dependent on precipitation than temperature in a warming climate. By the end of the century, the threshold elevation for temperature-controlled snowpack is expected to rise by around 800 feet, affecting ski resorts and water resources.
A new study highlights the importance of an integrated, cross-sectoral approach to climate change assessment to provide a more complete picture of impacts. Single sector studies often misrepresent the spatial pattern and magnitude of impacts due to omitted interdependencies within human and environmental systems.
A study by Karlsruhe Institute of Technology and Swedish-US partners found that demographic development has a significant impact on wildfires, with population growth reducing fire frequency. However, this does not mean the risk of fires will decrease, as growing population density in fire-susceptible regions increases the risk.
Scientists have made significant breakthroughs in predicting weather and climate change by studying the fundamental thermodynamics of water droplets. Understanding how water droplets grow and interact with each other can help improve weather forecasts, but also has industrial relevance and applications.
The Middle East and North Africa may become uninhabitable due to climate change, with temperatures expected to rise by over two degrees Celsius by mid-century. Heat waves could occur ten times more often, with prolonged periods of extreme heat becoming the norm.
A new study led by NCAR scientist Matthew Long finds that ocean deoxygenation caused by climate change will become detectable between 2030 and 2040, posing a major threat to marine life. The researchers used the Community Earth System Model to quantify large-scale changes in oxygen in the oceans.
A new study led by NCAR finds that widespread ocean oxygen loss due to climate change will be detectable between 2030 and 2040, posing a threat to marine life. The research uses climate simulations to distinguish between natural variability and deoxygenation caused by climate change.
A new method combines structured expert judgment and probabilistic inversion to provide a single, consistent set of probabilities for future sea-level rise. This approach aims to address the lack of formality in evaluating climate model uncertainty, which can impact policy and preparedness.
Thousands of islands face severe climate change impacts, including increased evaporation and freshwater scarcity. A new modeling approach shows that 73% of small islands will become more dry by mid-century, affecting 18 million people.
Researchers found that climate models are exaggerating cloud brightness as the planet warms, leading to underestimated global warming. Correcting this bias revealed a weaker cloud phase feedback and greater warming in response to carbon dioxide, contradicting current climate predictions.
Scientists discover sediment cores from Lomonosov Ridge, revealing a window into Arctic Ocean climate history. The cores show that the central Arctic was ice-free during summer, with sea surface temperatures reaching 4-9 degrees Celsius.
A new study in Nature finds large variations in precipitation over the past millennium, with stronger extremes in earlier centuries than in the twentieth century. This analysis enables improved accuracy of climate models and better prediction of future precipitation changes.
Berkeley Lab researchers discover organic molecules depress surface tension, enabling larger cloud droplets to form. This finding could improve the accuracy of climate change models predicting cooling effects of reflective clouds.
Researchers found that plants' water-use strategies significantly impact temperature increase, with needleleaf forests and agricultural land experiencing the largest changes. The study's results are more than half the change forecast by the IPCC under a business-as-usual model.
A University of Illinois study found that including four key biophysical processes in computer models can estimate permafrost area and stability more accurately. The new model suggests that permafrost has declined more slowly than previously thought, and its release could impact climate change.
A new study suggests that today's clouds may not be similar to pre-industrial ones due to increased aerosol pollution. To improve climate modeling, researchers recommend better differentiation of cloud types and studying cleaner regions.
A team of scientists at Argonne National Laboratory has created a new method for predicting extreme weather events, which could improve the accuracy of climate models. The technique uses high-resolution climate forecasting to analyze specific regions and provide more detailed predictions.
A new climate model developed by the University of Wisconsin-Madison can better predict changes to the ocean-carbon sink, a crucial factor in understanding future climate change. The improved predictive capacity allows scientists to distinguish human-induced effects from natural variability.
A Dartmouth College-led team has developed a new method to project future climate scenarios at the local level, addressing the limitations of global climate models in predicting climate changes at regional scales. The method generates high-resolution climate datasets for assessing impacts on small watersheds like Lake Champlain.
Climate models predict wet regions will become wetter and dry regions drier; western US aquifers expected to see slight-to-significant decreases in recharge as climate warms. The team's research integrates scientists' knowledge with scientific models to predict groundwater changes.
A dynamic model focusing on site scale conservation helps answer questions about how small white lady's slipper orchid habitats will change with climate change. The model provides information on management strategies specific to the location and plant itself, benefiting rare species with limited ranges.
A study found that weather patterns typically bringing moisture to the southwestern US are becoming less frequent, leading to a drier climate. The region is already vulnerable to drought, and this shift has significant implications for water resources.
A new study cautions that exceeding critical temperature limits in the Southern Ocean could lead to the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, posing a significant threat to sea levels. Meanwhile, advancements in climate model development aim to improve forecast accuracy and speed up decision-making.
A future warming of the Southern Ocean may cause the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, leading to a significant rise in sea levels. Model simulations suggest that critical temperature limits will be exceeded if ocean temperatures rise by more than two degrees Celsius, resulting in a sea level rise of three to five meters.
Researchers found that typical rain-bringing weather patterns in the Southwest are becoming more rare, leading to a drier climate state. The region is vulnerable to droughts due to its already arid conditions and growing population.
New research suggests that record heat over the past century and a half is incredibly unlikely to have occurred naturally, with odds ranging from 1 in 5,000 to 1 in 170,000. Human-caused climate change is considered highly likely to cause warming events.
Scientists have found that global ocean warming has doubled in recent decades, with significant increases in upper ocean temperatures since the 1970s. The study indicates that half of the accumulated heat during the industrial era has occurred in recent decades, with about a third residing in the deeper oceans.
A new study by NOAA researchers predicts that ocean temperatures in the Northeast U.S. may warm twice as fast and three times faster than previously estimated. This accelerated warming is driven by a higher resolution climate model that better reflects regional ocean circulation patterns.
A new study reveals clouds trap heat on the Greenland Ice Sheet, raising its temperature by 2-3 degrees and accounting for up to 30% of ice melt. This findings could improve future climate models, helping scientists and policymakers adapt to sea level rise.
Clouds play a significant role in the melting of the Greenland ice sheet, with clouds enhancing meltwater runoff by a third. The study highlights the need for accurate cloud representations in climate models to estimate the amount of meltwater and mitigate global sea level rise.
Phytoplankton play a crucial role in the ocean's food web and contribute to climate change by removing carbon from the atmosphere. Research reveals complex patterns of response to changing variables like nutrients, light, and ocean stratification, with predictions that global phytoplankton production will decrease.
A study of fossil corals and mollusk shells reveals no connection between strong seasonal variations and El Niño, contradicting top nine climate models. The research provides insight into the fundamental physics of El Niño and highlights deficiencies in current climate modeling.
Researchers found that including plants' acclimation to changes in temperature improves climate model accuracy, especially for tropical forests. Adding formulas for acclimation increases carbon exchange simulations by 36%, leading to a better understanding of how regions will respond to warmer temperatures.
A new model predicts that climate change impacts will worsen income growth for the poor, leading to a more unequal distribution of wealth. The researchers recommend lenient or sharp increases in carbon prices to mitigate these effects and protect vulnerable populations.
A study published in Science shows that Paris emissions reduction pledges have the potential to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius if implemented and followed by measures of equal or greater ambition. Implementing these pledges through 2030 and increasing efforts beyond can greatly reduce the chance of extreme warming.
A new project aims to incorporate ecological processes into Earth system models to predict the effectiveness of land management practices in mitigating climate change. The project, led by Quinn Thomas, will use field data and a state-of-the-art model to better understand key ecological processes and their impact on climate.
Researchers have found evidence that the melting of Scandinavian ice sheet drove a catastrophic freshwater flood, plunging the planet into a sudden cold snap, reconciling climate models with reconstructions. The study provides the missing link to understanding current inconsistencies between climate models and reconstructions.
Research from Chalmers University of Technology reveals that climate negotiations are more complicated than previously thought due to strategic reasoning. However, the study also suggests that eliminating extreme bargaining positions can increase the possibility of reaching an agreement.
A new study using state-of-the-art computer models finds that most aerosol species will increase under climate change associated with greenhouse-gas-induced warming. This could lead to reduced air quality and increased atmospheric aerosols, outweighing the decrease in precipitation in certain regions.
High-resolution climate models show parts of the Persian Gulf region may surpass survivability thresholds for temperatures above 35°C, posing severe human health risks. The study suggests that curbing greenhouse gas emissions could prevent these extreme heat events.
Researchers at the University of Waterloo propose a six-step process to improve success rates for ecological reclamation projects and control mine closure costs. The study highlights the need for a more pragmatic approach to reclamation planning that takes into account projected climate change, which could lead to billions in additiona...
A new study reveals that powerful winds in Antarctica are removing massive amounts of snow, potentially boosting estimates of potential sea-level rise. The research found that scour zones, where winds persistently scrape away at the surface, have lost up to 90% of their snow cover, equivalent to 80 billion tons per year.
A new study projects more extreme weather in the Amazon, with frequent and extensive droughts expected to impact forest structure, biomass, and carbon emissions. The region will experience profound implications for the environment, including increased greenhouse gas emissions.
A University of Southampton study suggests that an abrupt collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) could lead to cooling, rather than warming, for a period of 20 years. Global warming would continue after this initial cooling, with a globally averaged temperature offset of about 0.8°C.
Researchers at University of New South Wales have developed a simple online climate model that allows anyone to explore Earth's atmosphere and environment. The model enables users to compare how the world would change with different climate scenarios, making complex concepts clearer for students and the general public.