Articles tagged with Climate Modeling
The RegCM4 model simulates China's climate well, reproducing present-day climatology and interannual variabilities. However, it exhibits biases in winter temperatures and precipitation, with underestimation of heavy rainfall events and overestimation of consecutive dry days.
Researchers found a connection between climate change and extreme weather events, such as heat waves, droughts, and floods, due to the impact of warming Arctic temperatures on the jet stream. The study used historical atmospheric observations and confirmed that this temperature pattern corresponds with persistent extreme weather events.
A University of Connecticut climate scientist confirms that global warming will lead to more intense and frequent severe rainstorms. Data shows the intensity of these storms increases with rising temperatures, contradicting some observations suggesting a fixed upper temperature limit.
Researchers warn that climate change will continue to shrink the Colorado River's flows, reducing water supplies for seven US Western states and Mexico. With temperatures projected to rise and precipitation uncertainty, future drought periods are likely, posing significant challenges for water managers.
Scientists at Berkeley Lab developed a new model that captures tropical cyclones and extreme waves more accurately than existing models. Running models at a higher resolution of 25 kilometers instead of 100 kilometers improves predictions for coastal cities, industries relying on shipping, and surfers.
Researchers found that climate models underestimates high-elevation temperature changes, with errors of up to 40%, likely due to flawed water vapor content representation. This could lead to more extreme warming in fragile ecosystems like tropical glaciers.
A new study reveals that tiny particles can shield pollutants like polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) from degradation, allowing them to travel farther and increasing lung cancer risk. The findings quadruple the estimated global lung cancer risk from a pollutant caused by combustion, exceeding World Health Organization limits.
A new study reveals that sea-surface temperatures during the last interglaciation period were comparable to those of today. The analysis of 104 marine sediment core sites suggests that global ocean SSTs simulated by most climate models are too low, and that oceans may respond differently to modern warming.
Researchers improve climate models by incorporating industrial ecology approaches, including metal recycling, to consider a wider spectrum of mitigation options. This could enable IAMs to predict more realistic scenarios and inform policymakers about the potential impact of different strategies.
Researchers at the University of Massachusetts Amherst predict that Northeast US temperatures will increase much faster than the global average, reaching a 2-degrees Celsius warming target about 20 years earlier. The study finds regional variations in climate change impacts, including wetter winters and drier summers.
A new study predicts that California will experience three more extreme precipitation events per year by 2100 as the Earth's climate warms. The researchers developed a technique to identify large-scale patterns in atmospheric data, significantly reducing uncertainty in extreme storm predictions.
Researchers found a significant link between Antarctic Ice Sheet variability and global climate patterns over the past 8,000 years. The study suggests that ocean temperature changes in the Southern Hemisphere drive ice sheet melting and influence sea levels globally.
Research from the University of Southampton found that the world's wet regions are getting wetter and dry regions are getting drier, with a change of about 2% over the last 60 years. This process is called amplification of the water cycle, which is happening at a slower rate than previously predicted.
A new study by a team of American geophysicists found that Antarctica warmed about 11 degrees Celsius between 20,000 and 10,000 years ago, 2 to 3 times the average temperature increase worldwide. The disparity highlights the amplification of warming at poles consistent with today's climate change models.
A study examines the impact of climate change on freshwater species in New South Wales, Australia. At least a third of species are likely to lose more than half their range under climate change. The researchers hope that better communicating modeling uncertainty can inform adaptive management and balance risks.
Researchers have developed an integrated model that connects atmospheric and lake body interactions, enabling feedback between variables. This two-way coupling approach simulates hydrodynamics of the Great Lakes region with high resolution, providing a more nuanced view of regional climate change.
New research suggests that Lake Champlain may be more susceptible to climate change-induced damage than previously thought. The study's findings indicate that the current pollution standards may not be enough to prevent worsening algae blooms and water quality problems.
Low-level clouds in the tropics cool the planet by reflecting solar radiation, but their impact on climate depends on spatial pattern. The study suggests that recent observed trends may underestimate global warming due to increased carbon dioxide.
Research predicts an increase in water availability in the Blue Nile Basin of Ethiopia due to climate change, potentially allowing for two crops per year. However, increased sediment transport poses a challenge, highlighting the need for conservation practices and efficient irrigation development.
Biologists call for global data collection to improve model predictions for species response to climate change, citing a lack of key biological mechanisms and data as the main obstacle. A globally coordinated effort could greatly advance improvements in models and informed conservation approaches.
The US Department of Energy's Oak Ridge National Laboratory has received $39.8M in Exascale Computing Project funding to develop advanced modeling and simulation solutions for key DOE missions in science, clean energy, and national security.
Using high-resolution cloud models, researchers uncover the processes taking place in the atmosphere, revealing a 'memory' state of organisation that leads to heavy rain. Collisions between clouds produce heavier rain, contradicting traditional global climate models where convective clouds are seen as independent.
Scientists warn that global warming signals are masked by random weather variations, but expect increased snowfall in Antarctica due to higher moisture levels. The study concludes that the human influence on Antarctic surface mass balance will become detectable within the next few decades.
Climate researchers found that global climate models become increasingly uncertain when making predictions at scales below approximately 600 miles for temperature changes and 1200 miles for precipitation patterns. This makes it difficult to predict regional variations, such as the difference in warming between Indianapolis and Pittsburgh.
Researchers at Stockholm University and the University of Miami found that thin mid-level clouds in the tropics cool the climate by about 20 W m-2, significantly more than previously thought. This study aims to bridge gaps in knowledge about these challenging-to-study clouds.
Scientists from the AWI have correctly simulated the Eocene warm climate phase using climate models, overcoming a previous weakness due to misinterpreting the temperature indicator TEX86. The corrected temperatures reveal that the region was still warm enough for palm trees to grow on beaches.
A Scripps Institution of Oceanography study found that cloudy storm tracks are moving toward the poles and subtropical dry zones are expanding, consistent with climate model predictions. The research confirms a human-caused increase in greenhouse gas concentrations and exacerbates global warming.
Researchers found large-scale patterns of cloud change between the 1980s and 2000s, including poleward retreat of mid-latitude storm tracks and expansion of subtropical dry zones, consistent with climate model predictions.
A new study found that El Niño climate patterns contributed to a record-breaking marine heatwave in the Northeast Pacific Ocean, lasting for multiple years and affecting marine ecosystems. The research revealed 'teleconnections' between tropical and temperate latitudes, strengthening ocean warming patterns.
The Adélie penguin population in Antarctica is facing significant threats from climate change, with some colonies expected to decline by 30% by 2060 and 60% by 2099. Climate warming in certain regions has led to population declines, while cooling conditions have resulted in stable or increasing populations.
Robert DeConto, a leading expert on climate modeling, has won the 2016 Tinker-Muse Prize for Science and Policy in Antarctica. His research integrating geological data with modeling reveals likely consequences for future sea level rise from ice sheet melt.
A new study reveals that the type of soil used in agricultural models can significantly impact yield projections, particularly in regions with limited fertilizer or irrigation. This uncertainty highlights the need for improved soil observations to better adapt to climate change impacts on food production.
A team of physicists and mathematicians has developed a statistical technique to simulate small-scale phenomena in computer simulations, allowing for more accurate predictions. The method, published in Physical Review Letters, can capture the influence of cloud formation and reduce uncertainty in climate models.
A University of Utah study suggests that spring snowpack in higher elevations will be more dependent on precipitation than temperature in a warming climate. By the end of the century, the threshold elevation for temperature-controlled snowpack is expected to rise by around 800 feet, affecting ski resorts and water resources.
A new study highlights the importance of an integrated, cross-sectoral approach to climate change assessment to provide a more complete picture of impacts. Single sector studies often misrepresent the spatial pattern and magnitude of impacts due to omitted interdependencies within human and environmental systems.
A study by Karlsruhe Institute of Technology and Swedish-US partners found that demographic development has a significant impact on wildfires, with population growth reducing fire frequency. However, this does not mean the risk of fires will decrease, as growing population density in fire-susceptible regions increases the risk.
Scientists have made significant breakthroughs in predicting weather and climate change by studying the fundamental thermodynamics of water droplets. Understanding how water droplets grow and interact with each other can help improve weather forecasts, but also has industrial relevance and applications.
The Middle East and North Africa may become uninhabitable due to climate change, with temperatures expected to rise by over two degrees Celsius by mid-century. Heat waves could occur ten times more often, with prolonged periods of extreme heat becoming the norm.
A new study led by NCAR scientist Matthew Long finds that ocean deoxygenation caused by climate change will become detectable between 2030 and 2040, posing a major threat to marine life. The researchers used the Community Earth System Model to quantify large-scale changes in oxygen in the oceans.
A new method combines structured expert judgment and probabilistic inversion to provide a single, consistent set of probabilities for future sea-level rise. This approach aims to address the lack of formality in evaluating climate model uncertainty, which can impact policy and preparedness.
A new study led by NCAR finds that widespread ocean oxygen loss due to climate change will be detectable between 2030 and 2040, posing a threat to marine life. The research uses climate simulations to distinguish between natural variability and deoxygenation caused by climate change.
Thousands of islands face severe climate change impacts, including increased evaporation and freshwater scarcity. A new modeling approach shows that 73% of small islands will become more dry by mid-century, affecting 18 million people.
Researchers found that climate models are exaggerating cloud brightness as the planet warms, leading to underestimated global warming. Correcting this bias revealed a weaker cloud phase feedback and greater warming in response to carbon dioxide, contradicting current climate predictions.
Scientists discover sediment cores from Lomonosov Ridge, revealing a window into Arctic Ocean climate history. The cores show that the central Arctic was ice-free during summer, with sea surface temperatures reaching 4-9 degrees Celsius.
A new study in Nature finds large variations in precipitation over the past millennium, with stronger extremes in earlier centuries than in the twentieth century. This analysis enables improved accuracy of climate models and better prediction of future precipitation changes.
Berkeley Lab researchers discover organic molecules depress surface tension, enabling larger cloud droplets to form. This finding could improve the accuracy of climate change models predicting cooling effects of reflective clouds.
Researchers found that plants' water-use strategies significantly impact temperature increase, with needleleaf forests and agricultural land experiencing the largest changes. The study's results are more than half the change forecast by the IPCC under a business-as-usual model.
A University of Illinois study found that including four key biophysical processes in computer models can estimate permafrost area and stability more accurately. The new model suggests that permafrost has declined more slowly than previously thought, and its release could impact climate change.
A new study suggests that today's clouds may not be similar to pre-industrial ones due to increased aerosol pollution. To improve climate modeling, researchers recommend better differentiation of cloud types and studying cleaner regions.
A team of scientists at Argonne National Laboratory has created a new method for predicting extreme weather events, which could improve the accuracy of climate models. The technique uses high-resolution climate forecasting to analyze specific regions and provide more detailed predictions.
A new climate model developed by the University of Wisconsin-Madison can better predict changes to the ocean-carbon sink, a crucial factor in understanding future climate change. The improved predictive capacity allows scientists to distinguish human-induced effects from natural variability.
A Dartmouth College-led team has developed a new method to project future climate scenarios at the local level, addressing the limitations of global climate models in predicting climate changes at regional scales. The method generates high-resolution climate datasets for assessing impacts on small watersheds like Lake Champlain.
Climate models predict wet regions will become wetter and dry regions drier; western US aquifers expected to see slight-to-significant decreases in recharge as climate warms. The team's research integrates scientists' knowledge with scientific models to predict groundwater changes.
A dynamic model focusing on site scale conservation helps answer questions about how small white lady's slipper orchid habitats will change with climate change. The model provides information on management strategies specific to the location and plant itself, benefiting rare species with limited ranges.
A study found that weather patterns typically bringing moisture to the southwestern US are becoming less frequent, leading to a drier climate. The region is already vulnerable to drought, and this shift has significant implications for water resources.
A new study cautions that exceeding critical temperature limits in the Southern Ocean could lead to the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, posing a significant threat to sea levels. Meanwhile, advancements in climate model development aim to improve forecast accuracy and speed up decision-making.
A future warming of the Southern Ocean may cause the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, leading to a significant rise in sea levels. Model simulations suggest that critical temperature limits will be exceeded if ocean temperatures rise by more than two degrees Celsius, resulting in a sea level rise of three to five meters.
Researchers found that typical rain-bringing weather patterns in the Southwest are becoming more rare, leading to a drier climate state. The region is vulnerable to droughts due to its already arid conditions and growing population.
New research suggests that record heat over the past century and a half is incredibly unlikely to have occurred naturally, with odds ranging from 1 in 5,000 to 1 in 170,000. Human-caused climate change is considered highly likely to cause warming events.
Scientists have found that global ocean warming has doubled in recent decades, with significant increases in upper ocean temperatures since the 1970s. The study indicates that half of the accumulated heat during the industrial era has occurred in recent decades, with about a third residing in the deeper oceans.