Articles tagged with Climate Modeling
Climate models predict a doubling of extreme interannual sea level swings in the tropical southwestern Pacific, posing significant risks to vulnerable coastlines. Sea level drops and flooding will have severe consequences for Pacific Island communities adapting to rising sea levels.
A new method reconciles observational proxy and model evidence, demonstrating that the Tampora and Samalas eruptions generated an average drop in temperature in the Northern Hemisphere fluctuating between 0.8 and 1.3°C during the summer of 1258 and 1816. This cooling did not last for more than three years at a hemispheric scale.
A Columbia Engineering team has developed a new approach to model the Amazon seasonal cycle, correcting inaccuracies in general circulation models. The high-resolution atmospheric model resolves clouds and convection, providing a more accurate understanding of water and carbon cycles.
A 23-year experiment by Lund University researchers found that fungi break down organic materials, releasing carbon dioxide and nutrients, rather than reducing leakage as previously thought. This challenges current policies on land use intended to promote fungi and could have significant consequences for climate models.
Researchers used a high-resolution computer model to estimate West Antarctica's ice sheet loss over the next couple of centuries, predicting significant sea-level rise contributions. The study suggests that West Antarctica could lose 80,000 cubic kilometers of ice by 2100 and 200,000 cubic kilometers by 2200.
A new study enhances climate model accuracy, while a modeling tool facilitates high-resolution calculations of Earth's elastic response. Five new research papers explore topics including tropical cyclones in a cooler climate and exotic crust formation on Mercury.
A new study projects that Manhattan's climate will resemble Oklahoma City's by the end of this century due to climate change. The study found that heating and cooling usage will decrease in Northern states and increase in Southern states as temperatures warm up.
A new study led by Dr Kevin Cowtan found that climate models fail to reflect real-world measurements due to using air temperature for the whole globe. With 36 different models recalculated, a third of differences disappeared, leaving remaining discrepancies possibly explained by recent global warming fluctuations
A new study found that climate models significantly disagree on the amount of atmospheric carbon dioxide sequestered in Northern Eurasian tundra and boreal ecosystems. The region's land carbon sink has been strengthening in recent decades, but some models now show signs of weakening.
A recent study from the University of Edinburgh found that a slow-down in global warming is likely due to natural variation and not a sign of climate change ending. The research analyzed over 200 years' worth of temperature data and supported previous findings that short-term pauses are temporary.
Fred Ogden's discovery answers a long-standing question about water movement in the vadose zone, crucial for agriculture, hydrology, and climate science. The new equation improves the accuracy and computing power of hundreds of important water models.
A new NASA supercomputer simulation of the planet and debris disk around Beta Pictoris reveals that the planet's motion drives spiral waves throughout the disk, causing collisions among orbiting debris. The patterns in these collisions account for many observed features that previous research has struggled to explain.
Scientists developed a computer model that studies ocean mixing in vast eddies, clarifying the complex processes driving ocean storms. The model enables researchers to study heat and carbon fluxes into the deep ocean, increasing global climate simulation accuracy.
Researchers found that variations in atmospheric oxygen levels over the past 500 million years may have contributed to changes in global temperatures. The study suggests that lower oxygen concentrations led to higher temperatures and increased precipitation during the Cenomanian time period, a warmest period in the past 100 million years.
A Dartmouth-led study examines the Midwest's agricultural output and global food security in relation to climate change. The research finds that the response of soil moisture and still fewer have assessed soil moisture using a combination of model simulations and regional observations.
Researchers at UT Austin use regional climate models to assess climate change impact on Malawi's growing season, finding shorter growing seasons and earlier ends by mid-21st century. The study highlights the need for adaptation planning to mitigate global warming's effects.
A new study suggests that climate change will substantially increase the likelihood of record-breaking warm years in England, with a 13-fold increase or more likely due to human influences. The Central England Temperature series shows rapid warming over the past 60 years, with 2014 as the warmest year on record.
A new study suggests global warming is not as fast as predicted, with natural variability accounting for recent temperature changes. This 'middle-of-the-road' scenario could result in 11-year hiatuses in warming, making it more plausible than the most severe IPCC projections.
Scientists predict a gradual, prolonged release of greenhouse gases from permafrost soils in Arctic and sub-Arctic regions. The rate of release is likely to be similar to current tropical deforestation levels, emphasizing the need for climate models to incorporate this factor.
Scientists at ETH Zurich and the California Institute of Technology have shown that global warming reduces temperature variability, leading to fewer cold snaps and less fluctuation in mid-latitude temperatures. This contradicts the hypothesis that Arctic amplification contributes to extreme winter events in lower latitudes.
Researchers analyzed changes in climate over several decades, finding that the Earth is now entering a period of faster-than-natural warming. The study suggests that decision-makers need to better prepare for the impacts of climate change by understanding how quickly temperatures will rise.
Climate scientists found that natural oscillations in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans contributed to a 'false pause' in global warming. The researchers discovered a sharply down-trending Pacific multidecadal oscillation (PMO) was the primary driver of this slowdown.
A team of researchers found that sea levels rose by an average of four inches along the Northeast Coast from New York to Newfoundland, causing flooding independent of hurricanes or winter storms. The extreme increase was linked to changes in ocean circulation and the North Atlantic Oscillation.
Scientists from Vanderbilt and Stanford universities created a map of past climate change in the American West using ancient lake levels, glaciation records, and vegetation evidence. The study compared these results with global climate models to improve predictions for future rainfall patterns.
A study documents the disappearance of pikas from low-elevation sites in California's mountains, primarily due to climate change. The researchers predict that by 2070, pikas may disappear from up to 75% of their historical range, depending on greenhouse gas emissions levels.
Recent study finds that the global warming slowdown is due to random fluctuations, not systematic errors in climate models. The simulations of climate trends agree well with observations, suggesting that the models are reliable and accurate.
Researchers analyzed sediments from Lake Bosumtwi, Ghana, to reconstruct precipitation patterns in West Africa over the past 20,000 years. The study suggests that the African monsoon's response to climate forcing is more complex than previously understood, with a gradual decrease and southward migration over several thousand years.
A new study finds that climate models are inconsistent in explaining decade-to-decade temperature variability, which may lead to misinterpretation of data. The inconsistency may undermine the models' reliability for projecting future warming and suggests a bumpier road to a warmer world.
A new UCLA-led study reveals a vast network of little-understood rivers and streams flowing on top of the Greenland ice sheet, potentially responsible for at least as much sea-level rise as other sources combined. The research found that meltwater from these waterways can flush their entire volume in less than two days, contributing to...
A new study reveals a vast network of little-understood rivers and streams on Greenland's ice sheet, which could contribute significantly to sea-level rise. The researchers found that the Isortoq River's discharge was 25% less than predicted by climate models.
Recent small volcanic eruptions have been identified as a contributing factor to the recent 'warming hiatus', with scientists finding that they cool the atmosphere and reflect sunlight away from Earth. The new research complements earlier studies, which found that volcanoes may have caused cooling of up to 0.12 degrees Celsius since 2000.
A new study by IIASA researchers finds that climate change impacts on crop yields could lead to a 18% decline in global caloric production or a 3% increase by 2050. The researchers identified likely needed adaptations and transformations for global agricultural systems, highlighting the importance of irrigation and regional connections.
Researchers aim to quantify global warming's influence on extreme climate and weather events, focusing on unprecedented events. Advanced statistical techniques and long-term climate observations are used to analyze the relationship between human influence and extreme event probabilities.
A new study predicts eastern Pacific marine species will shift poleward due to climate change, altering fish communities and fishing grounds. The study suggests some species will move into habitats of other marine life to the north, while others may disappear from areas at their southern ends.
A new study has found early warning signals of a reorganisation of the Atlantic Ocean's circulation, which could impact the global climate system. The researchers used a complex model to analyze the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), finding that these signs are present up to 250 years before it collapses.
A new study analyzes past El Niño changes to predict future climate shifts. The research found that natural climate forces such as ice cover and greenhouse gases impact ENSO variability.
A team of Chinese scientists has developed a new global wetland suitability map to help protect these vital ecosystems. The map, which matches individual wetland sites with local water table depth, shows that the total area of global wetlands is approximately 3.316×107km2.
A study by Carnegie Institution scientists Katharine Ricke and Ken Caldeira found that climate warming caused by a single carbon emission reaches its maximum effect within 10 years. This refutes the common misconception of decades-long delays and benefits current generations, not just future ones.
Researchers found that CO2 warming effects peak within 10 years of emission and persist for over a century. The study suggests that current efforts to reduce emissions will benefit not only future generations but also people alive today.
A recent study led by the University of Cambridge found that ozone plays a crucial role in global warming, reducing surface warming by approximately 20% compared to most models. This discovery underscores the importance of including ozone feedback in climate models for more accurate predictions.
A new study reveals that crop productivity has increased by as much as 25% over the past five decades, contributing to a 50% rise in CO2 seasonality. The research highlights the impact of human activities on the Earth's atmosphere, particularly through intensive agricultural management.
Scientists found that ancient rivers, streams, and lakes on Mars were likely formed during brief periods of volcanic activity, warming the planet enough for water to flow. This challenges previous climate models suggesting a cold and ice-covered world, instead proposing a more complex history with episodic heating and melting.
Climate models predict a 50% increase in lightning strikes across the US due to global warming, which will lead to more human injuries and wildfires. The study used precipitation and cloud buoyancy data from climate models and found that these two parameters can predict lightning strikes with high accuracy.
A recent study using supercomputers has improved the accuracy of global climate models, reproducing intense storms like hurricanes and cyclones. High-resolution models provide a more realistic simulation of local weather patterns, especially in mountainous regions.
A new climate model simulates global carbon cycle interactions between plants and microbes, revealing a loss of soil carbon stocks in temperate regions due to increased microbial activity. The CORPSE model predicts gains in soil carbon capture in boreal regions and tropical South America.
A new study shows that sea surface temperatures reconstructed from climate archives vary to a much greater extent on long time scales than simulated by climate models. The researchers found that conventional climate models underestimated the variations of sea surface temperatures by a factor of 50 on a millennial time scale.
Researchers discovered that open oceans are less efficient at emitting far-infrared energy than sea ice, leading to warmer oceans and melting sea ice. This phenomenon contributes significantly to the polar climate's warming trend, with simulations predicting a 2-degree Celsius increase in the Arctic climate after just 25 years.
A study using satellite observations and climate models found that long-term ocean warming in the upper 700 meters has likely been underestimated. The researchers used a large suite of climate model simulations to estimate temperature changes, which suggests global ocean warming has been underestimated by 24-58%.
The $21 million SOCCOM program will create a biogeochemical and physical portrait of the Southern Ocean using hundreds of robotic floats deployed around Antarctica. The project aims to improve our understanding of the ocean's carbon, nutrient, and oxygen content, and its importance to Earth's climate systems.
A new MIT study suggests that extreme snow events will still occur even in a future with significant warming. In some regions, such as the Northern Hemisphere, average snowfall may decrease, but snowfall extremes intensify.
Researchers find that El Niño and La Niña events, as well as weakened solar activity and aerosol concentrations, contributed to the recent slowdown in global warming. The study suggests that short-term climate fluctuations can be explained by natural factors without contradicting long-term warming trends.
A new study suggests Antarctica's ice sheet could become the largest contributor to global sea level rise earlier than thought. The analysis indicates a range of potential increases of 1-37 centimeters in this century, significantly higher than previous IPCC projections. This could have devastating impacts on coastal cities and communi...
Scientists have found a discrepancy between global temperature trends over the last 10,000 years, with some data suggesting cooling and climate models predicting warming. The Holocene temperature conundrum has important implications for understanding climate change and evaluating climate models.
Researchers from Los Alamos National Laboratory and Carnegie Mellon University uncover key attributes of brown carbon, a toxic airborne particle that warms the atmosphere. The study reveals that brown carbon shares a common production mechanism with black carbon, leading to significant underestimation of warming effects in climate models.
Researchers used big data science to extract insights on climate extremes, finding that global warming may not mean fewer extreme cold snaps. The study suggests that natural processes driving weather anomalies could continue to occur in a warming future.
A new NOAA climate model reveals southwestern Australia's long-term decline in fall and winter rainfall is primarily driven by manmade increases in greenhouse gases and ozone depletion. The study projects a continued decline in winter rainfall throughout the 21st century, with significant implications for regional water resources.
Researchers used a statistical technique to downscale global climate models and found that population centers in cool, highland regions of East Africa may be more vulnerable to malaria than previously thought. The study suggests that fine-scale predictions can improve local adaptation and mitigation strategies.
High CO2 levels, projected to double by the end of the century, impair fish's ability to recognize school-mates. Fish reared under elevated CO2 conditions showed no preference for familiar or unfamiliar schools.
Researchers found that smaller groups of countries are more likely to reach consensus, while side agreements among smaller numbers of participants can actually promote the UN process. The study also highlights the importance of perceived individual threat in maintaining successful negotiations.
Researchers warn of a 70% increase in unhealthy summertime ozone levels across the US by 2050 due to climate change. A sharp reduction in emissions could counteract this increase, however, and reduce ozone pollution even as temperatures warm.