Research modeling the climate and its extremes. Covers climate extremes, ocean-dipole types, weather forecasting, and AI ecosystem monitoring.
Climate models predict wet regions will become wetter and dry regions drier; western US aquifers expected to see slight-to-significant decreases in recharge as climate warms. The team's research integrates scientists' knowledge with scientific models to predict groundwater changes.
A dynamic model focusing on site scale conservation helps answer questions about how small white lady's slipper orchid habitats will change with climate change. The model provides information on management strategies specific to the location and plant itself, benefiting rare species with limited ranges.
A study found that weather patterns typically bringing moisture to the southwestern US are becoming less frequent, leading to a drier climate. The region is already vulnerable to drought, and this shift has significant implications for water resources.
A new study cautions that exceeding critical temperature limits in the Southern Ocean could lead to the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, posing a significant threat to sea levels. Meanwhile, advancements in climate model development aim to improve forecast accuracy and speed up decision-making.
A future warming of the Southern Ocean may cause the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, leading to a significant rise in sea levels. Model simulations suggest that critical temperature limits will be exceeded if ocean temperatures rise by more than two degrees Celsius, resulting in a sea level rise of three to five meters.
Researchers found that typical rain-bringing weather patterns in the Southwest are becoming more rare, leading to a drier climate state. The region is vulnerable to droughts due to its already arid conditions and growing population.
New research suggests that record heat over the past century and a half is incredibly unlikely to have occurred naturally, with odds ranging from 1 in 5,000 to 1 in 170,000. Human-caused climate change is considered highly likely to cause warming events.
Scientists have found that global ocean warming has doubled in recent decades, with significant increases in upper ocean temperatures since the 1970s. The study indicates that half of the accumulated heat during the industrial era has occurred in recent decades, with about a third residing in the deeper oceans.
A new study by NOAA researchers predicts that ocean temperatures in the Northeast U.S. may warm twice as fast and three times faster than previously estimated. This accelerated warming is driven by a higher resolution climate model that better reflects regional ocean circulation patterns.
A new study reveals clouds trap heat on the Greenland Ice Sheet, raising its temperature by 2-3 degrees and accounting for up to 30% of ice melt. This findings could improve future climate models, helping scientists and policymakers adapt to sea level rise.
Clouds play a significant role in the melting of the Greenland ice sheet, with clouds enhancing meltwater runoff by a third. The study highlights the need for accurate cloud representations in climate models to estimate the amount of meltwater and mitigate global sea level rise.
Phytoplankton play a crucial role in the ocean's food web and contribute to climate change by removing carbon from the atmosphere. Research reveals complex patterns of response to changing variables like nutrients, light, and ocean stratification, with predictions that global phytoplankton production will decrease.
A study of fossil corals and mollusk shells reveals no connection between strong seasonal variations and El Niño, contradicting top nine climate models. The research provides insight into the fundamental physics of El Niño and highlights deficiencies in current climate modeling.
Researchers found that including plants' acclimation to changes in temperature improves climate model accuracy, especially for tropical forests. Adding formulas for acclimation increases carbon exchange simulations by 36%, leading to a better understanding of how regions will respond to warmer temperatures.
A new model predicts that climate change impacts will worsen income growth for the poor, leading to a more unequal distribution of wealth. The researchers recommend lenient or sharp increases in carbon prices to mitigate these effects and protect vulnerable populations.
A study published in Science shows that Paris emissions reduction pledges have the potential to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius if implemented and followed by measures of equal or greater ambition. Implementing these pledges through 2030 and increasing efforts beyond can greatly reduce the chance of extreme warming.
A new project aims to incorporate ecological processes into Earth system models to predict the effectiveness of land management practices in mitigating climate change. The project, led by Quinn Thomas, will use field data and a state-of-the-art model to better understand key ecological processes and their impact on climate.
Researchers have found evidence that the melting of Scandinavian ice sheet drove a catastrophic freshwater flood, plunging the planet into a sudden cold snap, reconciling climate models with reconstructions. The study provides the missing link to understanding current inconsistencies between climate models and reconstructions.
A new study using state-of-the-art computer models finds that most aerosol species will increase under climate change associated with greenhouse-gas-induced warming. This could lead to reduced air quality and increased atmospheric aerosols, outweighing the decrease in precipitation in certain regions.
Research from Chalmers University of Technology reveals that climate negotiations are more complicated than previously thought due to strategic reasoning. However, the study also suggests that eliminating extreme bargaining positions can increase the possibility of reaching an agreement.
High-resolution climate models show parts of the Persian Gulf region may surpass survivability thresholds for temperatures above 35°C, posing severe human health risks. The study suggests that curbing greenhouse gas emissions could prevent these extreme heat events.
Researchers at the University of Waterloo propose a six-step process to improve success rates for ecological reclamation projects and control mine closure costs. The study highlights the need for a more pragmatic approach to reclamation planning that takes into account projected climate change, which could lead to billions in additiona...
A new study reveals that powerful winds in Antarctica are removing massive amounts of snow, potentially boosting estimates of potential sea-level rise. The research found that scour zones, where winds persistently scrape away at the surface, have lost up to 90% of their snow cover, equivalent to 80 billion tons per year.
A new study projects more extreme weather in the Amazon, with frequent and extensive droughts expected to impact forest structure, biomass, and carbon emissions. The region will experience profound implications for the environment, including increased greenhouse gas emissions.
A University of Southampton study suggests that an abrupt collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) could lead to cooling, rather than warming, for a period of 20 years. Global warming would continue after this initial cooling, with a globally averaged temperature offset of about 0.8°C.
Researchers at University of New South Wales have developed a simple online climate model that allows anyone to explore Earth's atmosphere and environment. The model enables users to compare how the world would change with different climate scenarios, making complex concepts clearer for students and the general public.
Climate models predict a doubling of extreme interannual sea level swings in the tropical southwestern Pacific, posing significant risks to vulnerable coastlines. Sea level drops and flooding will have severe consequences for Pacific Island communities adapting to rising sea levels.
A Columbia Engineering team has developed a new approach to model the Amazon seasonal cycle, correcting inaccuracies in general circulation models. The high-resolution atmospheric model resolves clouds and convection, providing a more accurate understanding of water and carbon cycles.
A new method reconciles observational proxy and model evidence, demonstrating that the Tampora and Samalas eruptions generated an average drop in temperature in the Northern Hemisphere fluctuating between 0.8 and 1.3°C during the summer of 1258 and 1816. This cooling did not last for more than three years at a hemispheric scale.
A 23-year experiment by Lund University researchers found that fungi break down organic materials, releasing carbon dioxide and nutrients, rather than reducing leakage as previously thought. This challenges current policies on land use intended to promote fungi and could have significant consequences for climate models.
Researchers used a high-resolution computer model to estimate West Antarctica's ice sheet loss over the next couple of centuries, predicting significant sea-level rise contributions. The study suggests that West Antarctica could lose 80,000 cubic kilometers of ice by 2100 and 200,000 cubic kilometers by 2200.
A new study enhances climate model accuracy, while a modeling tool facilitates high-resolution calculations of Earth's elastic response. Five new research papers explore topics including tropical cyclones in a cooler climate and exotic crust formation on Mercury.
A new study projects that Manhattan's climate will resemble Oklahoma City's by the end of this century due to climate change. The study found that heating and cooling usage will decrease in Northern states and increase in Southern states as temperatures warm up.
A new study led by Dr Kevin Cowtan found that climate models fail to reflect real-world measurements due to using air temperature for the whole globe. With 36 different models recalculated, a third of differences disappeared, leaving remaining discrepancies possibly explained by recent global warming fluctuations
A new study found that climate models significantly disagree on the amount of atmospheric carbon dioxide sequestered in Northern Eurasian tundra and boreal ecosystems. The region's land carbon sink has been strengthening in recent decades, but some models now show signs of weakening.
A recent study from the University of Edinburgh found that a slow-down in global warming is likely due to natural variation and not a sign of climate change ending. The research analyzed over 200 years' worth of temperature data and supported previous findings that short-term pauses are temporary.
Fred Ogden's discovery answers a long-standing question about water movement in the vadose zone, crucial for agriculture, hydrology, and climate science. The new equation improves the accuracy and computing power of hundreds of important water models.
A new NASA supercomputer simulation of the planet and debris disk around Beta Pictoris reveals that the planet's motion drives spiral waves throughout the disk, causing collisions among orbiting debris. The patterns in these collisions account for many observed features that previous research has struggled to explain.
Scientists developed a computer model that studies ocean mixing in vast eddies, clarifying the complex processes driving ocean storms. The model enables researchers to study heat and carbon fluxes into the deep ocean, increasing global climate simulation accuracy.
Researchers found that variations in atmospheric oxygen levels over the past 500 million years may have contributed to changes in global temperatures. The study suggests that lower oxygen concentrations led to higher temperatures and increased precipitation during the Cenomanian time period, a warmest period in the past 100 million years.
A Dartmouth-led study examines the Midwest's agricultural output and global food security in relation to climate change. The research finds that the response of soil moisture and still fewer have assessed soil moisture using a combination of model simulations and regional observations.
Researchers at UT Austin use regional climate models to assess climate change impact on Malawi's growing season, finding shorter growing seasons and earlier ends by mid-21st century. The study highlights the need for adaptation planning to mitigate global warming's effects.
A new study suggests that climate change will substantially increase the likelihood of record-breaking warm years in England, with a 13-fold increase or more likely due to human influences. The Central England Temperature series shows rapid warming over the past 60 years, with 2014 as the warmest year on record.
A new study suggests global warming is not as fast as predicted, with natural variability accounting for recent temperature changes. This 'middle-of-the-road' scenario could result in 11-year hiatuses in warming, making it more plausible than the most severe IPCC projections.
Scientists predict a gradual, prolonged release of greenhouse gases from permafrost soils in Arctic and sub-Arctic regions. The rate of release is likely to be similar to current tropical deforestation levels, emphasizing the need for climate models to incorporate this factor.
Scientists at ETH Zurich and the California Institute of Technology have shown that global warming reduces temperature variability, leading to fewer cold snaps and less fluctuation in mid-latitude temperatures. This contradicts the hypothesis that Arctic amplification contributes to extreme winter events in lower latitudes.
Researchers analyzed changes in climate over several decades, finding that the Earth is now entering a period of faster-than-natural warming. The study suggests that decision-makers need to better prepare for the impacts of climate change by understanding how quickly temperatures will rise.
Climate scientists found that natural oscillations in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans contributed to a 'false pause' in global warming. The researchers discovered a sharply down-trending Pacific multidecadal oscillation (PMO) was the primary driver of this slowdown.
A team of researchers found that sea levels rose by an average of four inches along the Northeast Coast from New York to Newfoundland, causing flooding independent of hurricanes or winter storms. The extreme increase was linked to changes in ocean circulation and the North Atlantic Oscillation.
Scientists from Vanderbilt and Stanford universities created a map of past climate change in the American West using ancient lake levels, glaciation records, and vegetation evidence. The study compared these results with global climate models to improve predictions for future rainfall patterns.
Recent study finds that the global warming slowdown is due to random fluctuations, not systematic errors in climate models. The simulations of climate trends agree well with observations, suggesting that the models are reliable and accurate.
Researchers analyzed sediments from Lake Bosumtwi, Ghana, to reconstruct precipitation patterns in West Africa over the past 20,000 years. The study suggests that the African monsoon's response to climate forcing is more complex than previously understood, with a gradual decrease and southward migration over several thousand years.
A study documents the disappearance of pikas from low-elevation sites in California's mountains, primarily due to climate change. The researchers predict that by 2070, pikas may disappear from up to 75% of their historical range, depending on greenhouse gas emissions levels.
A new study finds that climate models are inconsistent in explaining decade-to-decade temperature variability, which may lead to misinterpretation of data. The inconsistency may undermine the models' reliability for projecting future warming and suggests a bumpier road to a warmer world.
A new study reveals a vast network of little-understood rivers and streams on Greenland's ice sheet, which could contribute significantly to sea-level rise. The researchers found that the Isortoq River's discharge was 25% less than predicted by climate models.
A new UCLA-led study reveals a vast network of little-understood rivers and streams flowing on top of the Greenland ice sheet, potentially responsible for at least as much sea-level rise as other sources combined. The research found that meltwater from these waterways can flush their entire volume in less than two days, contributing to...
Recent small volcanic eruptions have been identified as a contributing factor to the recent 'warming hiatus', with scientists finding that they cool the atmosphere and reflect sunlight away from Earth. The new research complements earlier studies, which found that volcanoes may have caused cooling of up to 0.12 degrees Celsius since 2000.
A new study by IIASA researchers finds that climate change impacts on crop yields could lead to a 18% decline in global caloric production or a 3% increase by 2050. The researchers identified likely needed adaptations and transformations for global agricultural systems, highlighting the importance of irrigation and regional connections.
Researchers aim to quantify global warming's influence on extreme climate and weather events, focusing on unprecedented events. Advanced statistical techniques and long-term climate observations are used to analyze the relationship between human influence and extreme event probabilities.
A new study predicts eastern Pacific marine species will shift poleward due to climate change, altering fish communities and fishing grounds. The study suggests some species will move into habitats of other marine life to the north, while others may disappear from areas at their southern ends.