Articles tagged with Climate Modeling
Climate models predict a 50% increase in lightning strikes across the US due to global warming, which will lead to more human injuries and wildfires. The study used precipitation and cloud buoyancy data from climate models and found that these two parameters can predict lightning strikes with high accuracy.
A recent study using supercomputers has improved the accuracy of global climate models, reproducing intense storms like hurricanes and cyclones. High-resolution models provide a more realistic simulation of local weather patterns, especially in mountainous regions.
A new climate model simulates global carbon cycle interactions between plants and microbes, revealing a loss of soil carbon stocks in temperate regions due to increased microbial activity. The CORPSE model predicts gains in soil carbon capture in boreal regions and tropical South America.
A new study shows that sea surface temperatures reconstructed from climate archives vary to a much greater extent on long time scales than simulated by climate models. The researchers found that conventional climate models underestimated the variations of sea surface temperatures by a factor of 50 on a millennial time scale.
Researchers discovered that open oceans are less efficient at emitting far-infrared energy than sea ice, leading to warmer oceans and melting sea ice. This phenomenon contributes significantly to the polar climate's warming trend, with simulations predicting a 2-degree Celsius increase in the Arctic climate after just 25 years.
A study using satellite observations and climate models found that long-term ocean warming in the upper 700 meters has likely been underestimated. The researchers used a large suite of climate model simulations to estimate temperature changes, which suggests global ocean warming has been underestimated by 24-58%.
The $21 million SOCCOM program will create a biogeochemical and physical portrait of the Southern Ocean using hundreds of robotic floats deployed around Antarctica. The project aims to improve our understanding of the ocean's carbon, nutrient, and oxygen content, and its importance to Earth's climate systems.
A new MIT study suggests that extreme snow events will still occur even in a future with significant warming. In some regions, such as the Northern Hemisphere, average snowfall may decrease, but snowfall extremes intensify.
Researchers find that El Niño and La Niña events, as well as weakened solar activity and aerosol concentrations, contributed to the recent slowdown in global warming. The study suggests that short-term climate fluctuations can be explained by natural factors without contradicting long-term warming trends.
A new study suggests Antarctica's ice sheet could become the largest contributor to global sea level rise earlier than thought. The analysis indicates a range of potential increases of 1-37 centimeters in this century, significantly higher than previous IPCC projections. This could have devastating impacts on coastal cities and communi...
Scientists have found a discrepancy between global temperature trends over the last 10,000 years, with some data suggesting cooling and climate models predicting warming. The Holocene temperature conundrum has important implications for understanding climate change and evaluating climate models.
Researchers from Los Alamos National Laboratory and Carnegie Mellon University uncover key attributes of brown carbon, a toxic airborne particle that warms the atmosphere. The study reveals that brown carbon shares a common production mechanism with black carbon, leading to significant underestimation of warming effects in climate models.
Researchers used big data science to extract insights on climate extremes, finding that global warming may not mean fewer extreme cold snaps. The study suggests that natural processes driving weather anomalies could continue to occur in a warming future.
A new NOAA climate model reveals southwestern Australia's long-term decline in fall and winter rainfall is primarily driven by manmade increases in greenhouse gases and ozone depletion. The study projects a continued decline in winter rainfall throughout the 21st century, with significant implications for regional water resources.
Researchers used a statistical technique to downscale global climate models and found that population centers in cool, highland regions of East Africa may be more vulnerable to malaria than previously thought. The study suggests that fine-scale predictions can improve local adaptation and mitigation strategies.
High CO2 levels, projected to double by the end of the century, impair fish's ability to recognize school-mates. Fish reared under elevated CO2 conditions showed no preference for familiar or unfamiliar schools.
Researchers found that smaller groups of countries are more likely to reach consensus, while side agreements among smaller numbers of participants can actually promote the UN process. The study also highlights the importance of perceived individual threat in maintaining successful negotiations.
Researchers warn of a 70% increase in unhealthy summertime ozone levels across the US by 2050 due to climate change. A sharp reduction in emissions could counteract this increase, however, and reduce ozone pollution even as temperatures warm.
Pierre Gentine, a Columbia University professor, has won a $258,011 NASA grant to research turbulence in the earth's atmosphere and improve climate predictions. He aims to model complex turbulent motions and their impact on climate circulation.
Researchers propose a method to determine underground details without drilling, improving climate models and predicting water runoff, landslides, and plant response to climate change. The technique uses groundwater drainage to predict weathered bedrock thickness across landscapes.
A team of AWI climate scientists deciphered a climate paradox from the Miocene era by analyzing complex model simulations. The expansion of the Antarctic ice sheet led to changes in wind patterns, ocean currents, and sea ice in the Southern Ocean, resulting in warming regions despite cooling elsewhere.
Researchers argue that current climate models fail to accurately capture the economic costs of climate change, leading to underestimated damage and ineffective policy decisions. To improve this, scientists must collaborate and update their models more frequently.
A groundbreaking study from the University of Exeter reveals a significant discrepancy between observed and modelled precipitation levels in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes. The study suggests that aerosol concentrations in the atmosphere may be underestimating the impact on regional temperature and precipitation changes.
A team of climatologists led by UC Riverside researchers found that the recent widening of the tropical belt is primarily caused by multi-decadal sea surface temperature variability in the Pacific Ocean, including the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and anthropogenic pollutants. The study suggests that climate models underestimate the obse...
A UCLA study reconstructs the temperature history of a region that influences global climate, revealing significant temperature changes over 20,000 years. The findings also shed light on the mystery of retreating glaciers in the Pacific Ocean's western tropics, with implications for future climate models.
A new statistical hierarchical Bayesian model consolidates climate change information from various sources, including observation-based data sets and climate models. The approach provides an ensemble estimate of current and future climate along with a measure of uncertainty.
A new study finds a statistically significant, minor increase in extreme Arctic cyclone frequency since the middle 19th century, with strongest increases near Iceland and the Aleutian Islands. Climate change may drive stronger shifts in polar climate, leading to more storminess and erosion of Arctic coastlines.
Researchers found that embarking on geoengineering, then stopping, could exacerbate climate change by speeding up global warming. Continuous geoengineering would cause a drastic rate of temperature change, posing significant threats to ecosystems and biodiversity.
Climate change is expected to increase heat waves in the Midwest, claiming hundreds of lives annually. A model developed by MSU systems ecologist Laura Schmitt-Olabisi reveals limitations of previous approaches to reducing deaths and hospitalizations caused by extreme heat.
The study reveals that greenhouse gas effects on climate are uncertain due to complex interactions between aerosols, cloud cover, and sunlight. Researchers highlight the need for improved observational tools and models to reduce uncertainty in climate forcing and predict future impacts of aerosols on weather and climate.
New research reveals global climate sensitivity is higher than previously thought due to correct representation of water vapor in cloud formation. Global temperatures are expected to increase by 3-5°C with a doubling of carbon dioxide, with potentially more extreme warming if emissions are not reduced.
A new study finds that drought frequency is likely to increase globally by the end of the 21st century due to climate change. The research suggests an increase in global severity of hydrological drought, with greater increases if no mitigation policies are implemented.
A new study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences finds that climate change will increase global water scarcity, affecting millions of people worldwide. The study estimates that 40% more people will be at risk of absolute water scarcity due to climate change, with significant regional differences in impacts.
A new study by Thomas Frölicher suggests that the Earth's atmosphere could continue to warm for hundreds of years after a complete stop of CO2 emissions, leading to a 25% increase in global temperature. The ESM2M climate model reveals that regional ocean heat uptake is crucial in understanding the effects of climate change.
The study reveals that natural fluctuations in the climate system are the primary cause of differences in short and medium-term projections. Despite this, researchers have found ways to make predictions about local climate extremes for certain regions and large areas, highlighting the importance of considering regional variability.
A new study by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory scientists shows that global precipitation changes are directly affected by human activities and cannot be explained by natural variability alone. The research found that thermodynamic changes and shifts in atmospheric circulation patterns are contributing to the observed changes.
An international team of researchers urges the development of science needed to manage climate risks and capitalize on unexpected opportunities. Climate preparedness research integrates social and climate science, engineering, and other disciplines.
Researchers have found that El Nino events have been more active and intense over the past 30 years than at any time in the past 600 years. As global average temperatures increase, these extreme events are expected to become even more frequent and severe.
A Princeton University study found that plants have prevented climate change by absorbing 186 billion to 192 billion tons of carbon from the atmosphere since the mid-20th century. This 'carbon sink' has kept global temperatures cooler by one-third of a degree Celsius, preventing catastrophic climate change.
A recent study published in Environmental Research Letters suggests that about half of global warming occurs within the first decade after an instantaneous step increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration, while about one-quarter occurs more than a century later. The research brings together results from leading climate models, revealing...
A Stanford University study projects a significant increase in severe thunderstorms across the US, with an estimated 40% rise in eastern US storms by late 21st century. The research suggests global warming will drive more days with high convective available potential energy and sufficient wind shear to form severe thunderstorms.
A new special issue of the NeoBiota journal explores advancing risk assessment models to address climate change, economics, and uncertainty in pest control. The article focuses on interactions between pest risk and climate change, policy and economics, as well as pest control and surveillance.
Research suggests that external changes can impact the strength and timing of El Niño events. Over 4,300 years, the ENSO cycle has changed due to natural influences on the Earth's climate, such as variations in its orbit around the sun.
A team of researchers has discovered key properties of tar balls and soot particles in wildfire smoke, which could improve climate change forecasts. The study provides new insights into how these particles affect climate, including their role in cloud formation and potential warming or cooling effects.
A new study by Prof. Sarah Kang found a significant relationship between ozone depletion and extreme daily precipitation in the Austral summer. The research used two global climate models to analyze the impact of stratospheric ozone depletion on precipitation patterns.
Research at Princeton University compares agricultural projections from empirical and mechanistic models, finding that empirical models may show greater losses as a result of climate change, while mechanistic models may be overly optimistic. The study highlights the importance of understanding model biases and using both model classes ...
The Greenland ice sheet is losing about 227 gigatonnes of ice per year, contributing to sea level rise. Researchers have coupled an ice/climate model with a thermo-mechanical model to accurately depict the ice sheet's dynamics and temperature changes.
A new study finds that current conservation efforts for the Iberian lynx are insufficient to save the species from extinction within 50 years, as climate change is not accounted for in management plans. The research highlights the importance of integrating climate models into biodiversity management.
Researchers used sophisticated three-dimensional climate models to solve the 'faint young sun paradox,' explaining how early Earth remained habitable despite a 20% dimmer sun. Moderate greenhouse gas inventories, including 20,000 ppm of CO2 and 1,000 ppm of methane, may have sustained liquid water and primitive life.
A recent study found that human influences through global warming increased the chances of Australians experiencing record hot summers like 2013 by more than five times. The research suggests that greenhouse gas emissions will lead to even more frequent and severe extreme heat events in the future.
Scientific studies estimate Colorado River flow declines of 6-45% by 2050, varying due to climate models and spatial resolution. The new study provides a framework for comparison, identifying key factors affecting predictions.
Researchers at Michigan State University have developed a new crop modeling system called SALUS to better predict global wheat yields and their impact on the environment. The system integrates multiple crop simulations with improved climate change models, reducing uncertainties and providing more accurate forecasts.
A new paper validates a fundamental assumption in space-for-time substitution, a popular approach for predicting relationships between complex variables. The study used fossilized pollen data to reconstruct ancient ecosystems and found that the model explained about 72 percent of the variation in their time data.
A new study published in Nature Geoscience investigates the ability of climate models to simulate tropical climate change by analyzing preserved geological evidence from the Last Glacial Maximum. The research reveals that only one model reproduces the rainfall patterns found from the geological evidence, with implications for simulatin...
Researchers used clumped isotope thermometry to determine temperatures on land during the last ice age, finding a 2-4 times greater increase than previously thought. Climate models that accurately depicted atmospheric processes were more accurate in predicting temperature changes.
New research reveals that sulfate aerosols form through an oxidation pathway involving transition metal ions, which may affect climate cooling estimates. This could lead to overestimated climate cooling effects in some regions.
Coral reefs face declining health due to climate change, pollution, and overfishing. However, researchers suggest that proactive measures can prevent their collapse, emphasizing the importance of reef function and local management.
New research predicts boreal forests will shift north, releasing more trapped carbon than current climate models predict. The approach considers random events like fire and drought that impact forest health, providing a more accurate forecast.
Researchers tracked increasing melt rates since 1979 but July 2012 event was unusually large, prompting study on low-level clouds. Thin clouds allowed solar energy to pass through, trapping heat and pushing temperatures above freezing, contributing to record-breaking ice melt.
Researchers studied ancient sea surface temperatures to understand why the Earth was warmer 4-5 million years ago. They found that current climate models may be missing key processes, which could help improve future predictions if uncovered.