Articles tagged with Climate Modeling
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The Community Earth System Model (CESM) is a powerful new tool for studying climate change, enabling scientists to simulate the complex interactions of the atmosphere, oceans, and land surfaces. The CESM will help researchers better understand the impacts of global warming on ice sheets, tropical cyclones, and aerosols.
A new study by Stanford University climate scientists predicts that exceptionally long heat waves and hot events will be frequent in the US by 2039, posing risks to agriculture and human health. The researchers used climate models to project a 1.8-degree Fahrenheit increase in global temperature, leading to more intense heat extremes.
The NASA Center for Climate Simulation (NCCS) has been introduced at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, offering enhanced computing capacity and data interaction technologies. This will support NASA's growing climate data needs and enable climate simulations and predictions.
Researchers calculated that a warming of 12 degrees Fahrenheit would cause some areas to surpass the wet-bulb temperature limit, while a 21-degree warming would put half of the world's population in an uninhabitable environment. Prolonged temperatures above 95 degrees could be intolerable for hours.
A new model forecasts Atlantic croaker population increases and shifts due to climate change, with potential for higher yields. The study demonstrates the importance of considering environmental factors in fisheries management.
A University of Melbourne-led study links earlier butterfly emergence with regional human-induced climate change, revealing a causal link between increasing greenhouse gases and warming temperatures. The study found a 1.6-day shift in the mean emergence date for adults of the Common Brown butterfly over a 65-year period.
Researchers develop new climate modeling process that considers greenhouse gas emissions, projections of the Earth's climate, impacts of climate change, and human decision-making. The approach will influence the next international scientific assessment and provide tools for policymakers to deal with a shifting climate.
New research reveals heat from the Pacific Ocean is responsible for Arctic sea ice loss. Satellite radar can accurately measure hurricane wind speeds. Nitrogen dynamics may accelerate global warming by constraining carbon dioxide absorption.
Biologists at City College of New York have identified a new spiny pocket mouse species, Heteromys catopterius, found in four wet mountainous forest regions along Venezuela's northern coast. The species differs from the Caribbean Spiny Pocket Mouse in darker fur and skull morphology.
Climate Wizard generates color maps of projected temperature and precipitation changes using 16 climate models, making data accessible to a wider audience. The tool allows users to explore climate change impacts on endangered species, drought-prone regions, and freshwater supplies.
A new study published in Nature Geoscience suggests that the Earth's temperature is more sensitive to atmospheric carbon dioxide than previously estimated. The research found that including factors like land-ice and vegetation in climate models increases the temperature response to carbon dioxide, indicating a higher sensitivity.
Researchers used historical climate data to predict that warmer temperatures will cause plants to flower up to 11 days earlier in Scotland by 2080. This change can lead to desynchronisation between plant and animal life, affecting ecosystems across the globe.
NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center has expanded its high-end computing system to support climate simulations, including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The new system, powered by Intel's Nehalem architecture, will enable faster and more accurate climate modeling.
New research by the UK's National Centre for Atmospheric Science suggests that targeted investments in climate science can improve climate predictions by 10-20% globally and up to 20% in specific regions. This could lead to significant economic savings by reducing the costs of adapting to a changing climate.
A new MIT study forecasts an increase in extreme rainfall events, with precipitation in these events expected to rise by 6% for every one degree Celsius temperature increase. Climate models show varying results within the tropics, prompting further research to determine outcomes in tropical regions.
New research confirms human-induced warming increases atmospheric water vapor content, a greenhouse gas amplifying global warming. Climate models' ability to identify this effect is not influenced by their quality.
Rainfall in Iberian Peninsula to decline due to climate change, with increased frequency in winter and lower amounts in spring-summer. Climate models predict significant changes by middle of 21st century, with varying effects on seasonal distribution patterns.
Researchers created a detailed 'motion picture' of Earth's last major warming event, allowing them to identify key drivers and potential consequences of abrupt climate changes. The study's results provide valuable insights into the complex interactions between ocean currents, atmospheric carbon dioxide, and subsurface heat.
Australia's top scientists will present on using mathematical models to understand complex systems, including climate change and agricultural sustainability. The conference will feature models assessing water availability, predicting aircraft distances for safer skies, and evaluating coral bleaching impacts.
Warmer weather has favored larger birds and generalist species, which are well-positioned to respond to climate change. The analysis of the annual Christmas Bird Count data reveals that only one of three predicted outcomes holds true for North American birds over the past quarter century.
A new study reveals that droughts in West Africa can last for decades, with some droughts lasting up to four times longer than the current Sahel drought. The research suggests that changes in Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperatures play a key role in sustaining these long periods of drought.
The University of Washington is leveraging cloud computing to facilitate data-intensive research on oceans and galaxies. Researchers are using the platform to explore climate simulations and analyze astronomical images, which previously were too large for individual computers to handle.
Recent research reveals a 'pacemaker' climate shift mode controlling global temperature changes. Meanwhile, natural ocean 'thermostats' for Pacific reefs are disputed, suggesting underreported bleaching events. Space dust also interacts with the atmosphere, vaporizing and leaving behind high-altitude metal ions and molecules.
A new study forecasts the likelihood of climate factors matching at geographically distant airline departure and destination points, enabling more efficient detection and interception of invasive species. The model uses recent forecast data for climate change and air traffic volumes, predicting a peak risk in June 2010.
A new study forecasts when climate factors will match at geographically distant airline departure and destination points, helping to detect and intercept invasive species. The findings provide a framework for monitoring airline flights and planning more efficiently.
The University of Chicago is launching a large-scale collaboration to develop a computational modeling tool that will help policymakers make informed decisions on climate and energy policy. The new framework, CIM-EARTH, will analyze and predict the effects of climate policy decisions on the global economy.
Research suggests that human activity may not have a detectable impact on Atlantic hurricanes, but warming may lead to more intense storms. Century-long records show rising tropical storm counts from the mid-1800s, while hurricane counts remain stable.
A Princeton study finds that climate change may reduce the competitiveness of some invasive plants, creating restoration opportunities in areas dominated by 'intractable' weeds. The study mapped invasion risk across millions of acres in the US West.
Climate change and sea ice fluctuations threaten emperor penguin populations, with a median colony size predicted to decline from 3,000 to 400 breeding pairs. The probability of drastic decline is at least 40%, putting the species at risk of extinction.
The report highlights the importance of aerosol research in predicting Earth's future climate. Scientists need a better understanding of how aerosols affect climate to narrow down temperature increase uncertainty by nearly two-thirds.
A new Purdue University study suggests that warming temperatures could lead to an increase in corn pests, resulting in decreased yields and increased costs for farmers. The research found that warmer weather could allow these insects to expand their territory and produce an extra generation of offspring each year.
Long-term measurements of atmospheric gases suggest that air masses are moving more slowly than expected, potentially impacting ozone layer recovery. Researchers urge further study to understand the exact mechanisms behind this phenomenon and its implications for climate models.
A team led by Livermore scientists has reconciled the differences between simulated and observed temperature trends in the tropics. They applied a modified statistical test to account for uncertainty in observational data and found no fundamental discrepancy between modeled and observed trends. This reconciliation is thanks to the use ...
Researchers will examine three decades of hurricane activity in unprecedented detail using a combination of climate and regional weather models. The goal is to better inform coastal communities and industries affected by changes in hurricanes.
Scientists from 40 institutions participate in an international field experiment to collect real-time data on the southeastern Pacific's climate system. The study aims to improve global climate models and better predict Earth's climate.
The IMPACTS program aims to understand possible mechanisms of abrupt climate change and build comprehensive computer models. Researchers focus on four types of ACC: marine ice sheet instability, positive feedback mechanisms in subarctic forests, methane hydrates destabilization, and biosphere-atmosphere feedback leading to megadroughts.
Researchers develop novel weather and climate modeling strategy to isolate interactions between weather and climate, applying it to the NCAR's Community Climate System Model. This project aims to advance Earth system science, improve weather and climate predictions, and inform environmental policies.
A new study suggests that Burmese pythons will not be able to find suitable habitats outside of South Florida, despite initial predictions by the USGS. The researchers used advanced climate models to predict the potential distribution of the snakes in the US and found that they are limited to the vicinity of the Everglades.
New research suggests that climate change may increase Middle East rainfall by up to 50% in the Euphrates-Tigris watershed, contrary to previous projections. This could alleviate agricultural challenges and reduce food shortages.
A new study confirms a link between warmer climates and more powerful rainstorms, increasing the risk of flooding and societal impacts. Researchers found that tropical rainfall extremes increase during warm periods, with heavy downpours boosted by atmospheric moisture.
A new study finds global warming could lead to larger changes in snowmelt in the western US, increasing wildfire risk and creating new water management challenges. The critical surface temperature feedback is twice as strong as projected, potentially accelerating warming.
A new study published in Nature finds that ocean temperatures and sea level increases between 1961 and 2003 were 50% larger than previously thought. The results show sea levels rose by 1.5 millimeters per year, equating to a 2-inch increase in ocean levels over 42 years.
A new study suggests that closing the ozone hole may reverse Southern Hemisphere climate change, contrary to predictions made by IPCC models. The closure of the ozone hole is expected to decelerate tropospheric winds and potentially lead to a reversal of climate change in the region.
Researchers find global sea level acceleration may have started in the 18th century, causing a 6 cm rise during the 19th century and 19 cm during the 20th century. The US east coast also subsided since the Eocene, with wind-launched ocean eddies triggering formation and propagation in the South China Sea.
A new study by NCAR and Ohio State University found that climate models consistently overstate Antarctic warming, but still project significant sea-level rise due to melting ice sheets. The researchers suggest that warmer temperatures could slow down or speed up sea-level rise depending on future temperature increases.
The researchers propose designing a cost-effective machine for running climate models and improving predictions. They suggest using about 20 million embedded microprocessors, which would deliver results at a lower cost and power consumption than current conventional supercomputers.
A new study by University of Utah meteorologists finds that current climate models are accurate and can be valuable tools for reversing global warming trends. The study shows that coupled models can simulate present-day climate with accuracy approaching conventional observations.
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory scientists performed a 400-year high-resolution global ocean-atmosphere simulation using the Community Climate System Model (CCSM). The study achieved substantial improvements in simulated surface winds and sea surface temperatures, as well as improved tropical variability and Arctic sea ice thick...
Researchers at the Alfred Wegener Institute found that stratospheric ozone chemistry significantly influences the Arctic Oscillation, leading to changes in atmospheric air flows and temperature distribution. This basic knowledge is crucial for improving climate models and reducing uncertainty in simulated climate developments.
Scientists developed a new model to estimate sea ice thickness, using historical observations and environmental data analysis. The study shows that average ice thickness and total ice volume fluctuated together during the early period, peaking in the late 1980s before declining until the mid-1990s.
Scientists from Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory have pinpointed human-caused climate change as the cause of decreasing water flow in the West. The study found that warming temperatures and rising greenhouse gas levels are affecting snowpack, river flows, and ultimately, the water supply.
Recent research found California's temperatures have jumped statewide by more than 2.1 degrees Fahrenheit between 1915 and 2000, with the warming being fastest in late winter and early spring. The study suggests that natural causes alone cannot explain this trend and points to greenhouse gases and urbanization as contributing factors.
Researchers at the University of Michigan developed a new model that matches real-world measurements of saltation better than classical theory. This new knowledge helps scientists understand how aerosols are released, affecting Earth's climate by blocking and absorbing sunlight.
A new study found that leading global climate models do an unsatisfactory job of mimicking climate change, particularly in the lower and middle atmosphere. The researchers compared the models' output with actual climate data and found discrepancies, casting doubt on the reliability of these models for predicting future climate changes.
A study led by Purdue University predicts a significant increase in severe storms in the US, with areas like Atlanta and New York seeing more than double the chances of severe thunderstorms by the end of the century. The research used climate models to examine favorable conditions for storm formation.
A comprehensive study finds that climate change could lead to significant shifts in North American tree ranges, with potential decreases of up to 58% if species cannot disperse. The research used an extensive data-gathering effort and simulated two climate change scenarios.
A statistical model based on climate factors indicates that the estimated undercount of historic tropical storms in the Atlantic is only slightly below actual numbers. The researchers found that the average undercount bias from 1870 to 1944 was approximately one tropical storm per year.
Researchers challenge the prevailing view that the Colorado Plateau shifted north during the Jurassic Period, citing evidence from ancient dunes and climate modeling. The findings indicate the area remained at the equator, sparking a new conundrum in the scientific community.
Researchers at the University of Washington have devised a theory that links uncertainty in climate change with climate sensitivity. The theory, published in Science, provides a yardstick for testing climate models and shows that small uncertainties can be amplified into large ones.
A new report highlights the ongoing debate over climate change models, with scientists emphasizing the importance of understanding physical laws while acknowledging uncertainties. The Institute of Physics' report notes that while there is general consensus on climate causes, there is not unanimity among experts.