Articles tagged with Climate Modeling
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Researchers found that summer temperature is the most important variable in predicting fire extent, with increases expected in Montana, Wyoming, and New Mexico. Global warming could lead to more frequent and extensive fires, reducing old forests and habitat corridors for threatened species.
A recent NCAR study found a significant decrease in frost days worldwide over the last 50 years, with greatest reductions in the western US and Canada. The factors at work are attributed to changes in atmospheric circulation, including increased mild air from the Pacific and cold Canadian air from the east.
The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research has purchased a large-scale Linux-based computing system, adding significant computing capacity to NCAR's arsenal. The system will enable the evaluation of major community climate and weather codes in a full-scale Linux environment.
The Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3) predicts higher global temperatures if societies continue to emit large quantities of carbon dioxide. With improved accuracy, CCSM3 will be used to study climate patterns and chemical processes, shedding light on the impacts of climate change.
A new climate model, LDEO5, has been developed by scientists at Columbia University that accurately predicted every major change in the tropical Pacific Ocean temperature over the past 150 years. The model suggests that ENSO is largely driven by internal relationships between ocean temperature and tropical winds.
Alpine tree lines are shifting up-slope due to global warming, threatening regional plant populations. The study suggests that pine trees could help protect drinking water catchments from erosion and pollution in the City of Vienna.
Scientists studying an Antarctic 'cod' are gaining insights into how its unique physiology helps it survive in icy waters. By understanding how the fish adapts to environmental change, researchers hope to develop new treatments for human heart conditions.
Research found that changes in land cover, particularly vegetation, have impacted regional temperatures and precipitation in the US. Land cover changes produced a significant cooling effect of more than one degree Fahrenheit in parts of the Great Plains and Midwest.
A new generation of researchers will unravel the Earth's complexity using powerful cyberinfrastructure tools. This includes advanced data analysis, intelligent sensing systems and collaborative platforms.
New evidence reveals urban areas are altering rainfall patterns and daily precipitation trends, with higher rates during summer months downwind of large cities like Houston and Atlanta. Cities tend to be warmer than surrounding suburbs and rural areas due to urban heat islands.
Researchers use climate models to analyze past solar energy changes and test regional climate predictions under global warming scenarios. The study reveals smaller background trends in solar energy are in better agreement with long-term climate records, providing insights into Earth's changing climate.
A study by scientists at PNNL and UC-Irvine clarifies the role of sea salt in sulfur chemistry, enabling more accurate predictions of acid deposition and global climate. Sea salt particles can absorb substantial amounts of sulfur dioxide, converting it to sulfuric acid.
A new climate model, ALL, integrated multiple factors into a single experiment, recreating observed temperature records for the 20th century. The model predicts increased global warming of 5.5 degrees Celsius by the end of the 21st century when sulphate emissions reductions are considered.
Scientists at MIT found that vegetation growth and decay are crucial for accurate climate models. The Sahara desert's transformation from fertile to arid was only explained when including vegetation as a variable.
Researchers predict a significant warming trend in global temperatures, with the greatest impact felt in winter hemispheres, due to retreating snow and ice in high latitudes. The range of predicted temperature changes is 1.5-6 degrees centigrade, with most models predicting a 2-4 degree rise.
A new study suggests that future extreme rain events could cause significant crop losses and damages, particularly in the US Corn Belt. The researchers used a modified crop model to simulate the effects of excess soil moisture on corn crops, finding potential damages up to $3 billion per year by the 2030s.
Climate researchers have made significant progress in understanding Arctic climate change, revealing a seesaw pattern called the Arctic Oscillation that affects global temperatures. The study highlights the importance of accounting for this phenomenon in climate models to accurately predict future changes.
The Community Climate System Model, version 2 (CCSM-2) is a new computer model that will help scientists understand the Earth's climate system. It has increased capabilities allowing for more detailed climate projections and will be used to produce improved simulations of average climate and climate variability.
A NASA study suggests that mixed croplands can lead to a cooler and wetter climate in certain regions. The researchers used satellite measurements of vegetation to simulate regional climate and found that this type of land use can alter atmospheric circulation, leading to increased convection and precipitation.
Satellite observations show northern regions experiencing a 'greening' trend over the past two decades, with spring advancing by about a week and summer maximum leaf cover increasing. The LPJ model confirms this trend, attributing it to warming caused by climate change, while also highlighting other factors such as increased carbon dio...
A new climate study reveals California's increased risk of warmer temperatures, smaller snowpacks, and altered water supplies due to rising carbon dioxide levels. The research offers precise regional specificity and statistical analysis, providing a more reliable basis for planning climate change mitigation strategies.
Researchers aim to better understand West Africa's climate trends and model potential impacts on the region's water resources, agriculture, and energy sector. The study's findings could help inform regional plans for adapting to climate change and ensure the long-term sustainability of hydroelectric power.
The study predicts that over 50 years, changing climate will bring about great instability for wildlife, reshuffling ecosystems and introducing new diseases and parasites. A majority of species are expected to have smaller geographical ranges than today, with some local communities experiencing up to 40% species turnover.
Climate models predict significant temperature increases and sea level rise over the next century. The effects of carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels will last for at least 100 years, regardless of current reductions.
Researchers at NSF Longterm Ecological Research in Antarctica found a cooling trend on the continent, contradicting global warming expectations. The study indicates that most of the continent is cooling, posing challenges to climate models and potentially affecting unique ecosystems.
Dr. Richard B. Alley suggests that past climate records indicate abrupt changes, particularly near poles and away from them. He proposes a threshold-based approach to climate change, which could lead to more realistic predictions of future climate shifts.
Researchers used computer models to simulate the effects of elevated carbon dioxide on cotton crop yields, predicting a 26-36% increase in yields. The study's findings suggest that climate change may have a positive impact on US cotton production.
A new NASA climate model suggests that low solar activity during the Little Ice Age (1400s-1700s) triggered regional cooling in Europe and North America. The study found that a dimmer sun reduced westerly winds, leading to cold temperatures during winter.
Researchers measured aerosols in clean marine conditions and under polluted conditions, revealing large concentrations of particulate material including mineral dust. The findings will help reduce uncertainties in global climate models and develop better policies.
A study by NASA researchers found that the eastern U.S. has cooled by 0.1° Celsius per decade, contrasting with global warming. The researchers attribute this cooling to increased cloud cover caused by warmer ocean temperatures in the Pacific.
A Penn State researcher has created a model that explains why flowering plants in Norway bloom earlier after warmer winters. The study incorporates biological factors and provides insight into the ecological responses to climate change.
Researchers at MIT found that urban air pollution will not have a big effect on global temperature change, with some regional effects possible. The study used a new method to couple urban air chemistry models with global climate models, allowing for more accurate predictions.
The Geophysical Fluid Flow Cell experiment simulated Earth's climate, the Sun's atmosphere, and other planets' atmospheres in microgravity. Scientists created models of fluid flows in planetary atmospheres using a nickel-coated steel ball, silicone oil, and artificial gravity.
A Penn State meteorologist suggests that tilt is the key to understanding both the Faint Young Sun problem and the Snowball Earth problem, proposing a solution where the Earth's axis is tilted at 70 degrees. This theory could potentially explain why the Earth was warmer in the early Precambrian despite a weaker sun.
Arctic sea ice has been declining at an alarming rate, with a downward trend of 37,000 square kilometers per year over the past 19.4 years. A new study suggests that human-induced global warming may be contributing to this decline.
Researchers used a computer climate model to find that vegetation interactions significantly drive the Sahel region's drought. The study suggests that natural vegetation causes enhanced drying, leading to cooler climates and reduced rainfall.
Ship emissions of nitrogen oxides can increase ozone concentrations by twofold and hydroxyl radical levels fivefold, resulting in a cooling effect on the atmosphere. This has significant implications for future international policy decisions regarding atmospheric change.
German scientists used a climate model to conclude that the Sahara's desertification began abruptly 5,440 years ago due to subtle changes in Earth's orbit. The resulting desertification had significant impacts on ancient civilizations, with some of the most severe changes occurring between 4,000 and 3,600 years ago.
Northern Hemisphere winters have warmed by up to nine degrees Fahrenheit over the last 30 years, likely due to human activities increasing greenhouse gases. Warmer winters will bring more wet weather to Europe and Western North America.
Climate models project a 23-30% decline in mountain snowpack by 2025, and up to 61% by 2095. This could drastically alter hydrology and water resource management in the region.
The regional climate change model suggests a 50% decrease in snow cover over Washington state and warmer temperatures, while also increasing winter precipitation. The impacts on water resources could be significant, with less snow melt in the spring and reduced stream flow for irrigation.
An international team of scientists, led by Colorado State University's Scott Denning, aims to resolve the mystery of the 'missing sink' that absorbs excess carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. The TransCom3 project will use advanced modeling techniques and data analysis to narrow down the location and mechanisms of this natural process.
A new statistical analysis of 115 years of global temperature data strengthens the argument that human-caused emissions are warming the earth's atmosphere. The study found strong year-to-year correlations between actual temperature data and simulations from two leading computer models, indicating a consistent long-term trend.
A new computer model predicts that climate events like El Nino can affect Aedes aegypti mosquito populations, potentially leading to outbreaks of dengue disease. The model takes into account climatic variables such as precipitation, temperature, and humidity to forecast population booms and peaks.
Researchers at Penn State used global and regional climate models to investigate climate change differences. They found that regional models produced warmer temperatures, leading to more rain and less snowfall in the Northeastern United States.
A computer model developed by Penn State researchers can predict the probability of land use change and microclimate formation in urban areas. The model uses satellite image data to calculate land use types, vegetation, and surface climate parameters, providing insights into urban growth and its impact on local liveability.
A new Yale University study estimates the lifetime economic cost of each person to society, taking into account global warming and other factors. The study suggests that the shadow price of a person comes out to about 30% of per capita Gross Domestic Product.
Scientists argue that computer models and satellites are useful tools, but only when their limitations are well understood. They found that most of the difference between MSU and surface trends could be explained by two significant drops in MSU data for 1981 and 1991.
Using NCAR computer models of climate and vegetation, Benjamin Felzer found which plant types ancestors would have walked among during the last glacial maximum. The model reveals a global picture of vegetation 21,000 years ago, with significant changes in central Asia and Africa.