Research modeling the climate and its extremes. Covers climate extremes, ocean-dipole types, weather forecasting, and AI ecosystem monitoring.
Climate change and sea ice fluctuations threaten emperor penguin populations, with a median colony size predicted to decline from 3,000 to 400 breeding pairs. The probability of drastic decline is at least 40%, putting the species at risk of extinction.
The report highlights the importance of aerosol research in predicting Earth's future climate. Scientists need a better understanding of how aerosols affect climate to narrow down temperature increase uncertainty by nearly two-thirds.
A new Purdue University study suggests that warming temperatures could lead to an increase in corn pests, resulting in decreased yields and increased costs for farmers. The research found that warmer weather could allow these insects to expand their territory and produce an extra generation of offspring each year.
Long-term measurements of atmospheric gases suggest that air masses are moving more slowly than expected, potentially impacting ozone layer recovery. Researchers urge further study to understand the exact mechanisms behind this phenomenon and its implications for climate models.
A team led by Livermore scientists has reconciled the differences between simulated and observed temperature trends in the tropics. They applied a modified statistical test to account for uncertainty in observational data and found no fundamental discrepancy between modeled and observed trends. This reconciliation is thanks to the use ...
Researchers will examine three decades of hurricane activity in unprecedented detail using a combination of climate and regional weather models. The goal is to better inform coastal communities and industries affected by changes in hurricanes.
Scientists from 40 institutions participate in an international field experiment to collect real-time data on the southeastern Pacific's climate system. The study aims to improve global climate models and better predict Earth's climate.
The IMPACTS program aims to understand possible mechanisms of abrupt climate change and build comprehensive computer models. Researchers focus on four types of ACC: marine ice sheet instability, positive feedback mechanisms in subarctic forests, methane hydrates destabilization, and biosphere-atmosphere feedback leading to megadroughts.
Researchers develop novel weather and climate modeling strategy to isolate interactions between weather and climate, applying it to the NCAR's Community Climate System Model. This project aims to advance Earth system science, improve weather and climate predictions, and inform environmental policies.
A new study suggests that Burmese pythons will not be able to find suitable habitats outside of South Florida, despite initial predictions by the USGS. The researchers used advanced climate models to predict the potential distribution of the snakes in the US and found that they are limited to the vicinity of the Everglades.
New research suggests that climate change may increase Middle East rainfall by up to 50% in the Euphrates-Tigris watershed, contrary to previous projections. This could alleviate agricultural challenges and reduce food shortages.
A new study confirms a link between warmer climates and more powerful rainstorms, increasing the risk of flooding and societal impacts. Researchers found that tropical rainfall extremes increase during warm periods, with heavy downpours boosted by atmospheric moisture.
A new study finds global warming could lead to larger changes in snowmelt in the western US, increasing wildfire risk and creating new water management challenges. The critical surface temperature feedback is twice as strong as projected, potentially accelerating warming.
A new study published in Nature finds that ocean temperatures and sea level increases between 1961 and 2003 were 50% larger than previously thought. The results show sea levels rose by 1.5 millimeters per year, equating to a 2-inch increase in ocean levels over 42 years.
A new study suggests that closing the ozone hole may reverse Southern Hemisphere climate change, contrary to predictions made by IPCC models. The closure of the ozone hole is expected to decelerate tropospheric winds and potentially lead to a reversal of climate change in the region.
Researchers find global sea level acceleration may have started in the 18th century, causing a 6 cm rise during the 19th century and 19 cm during the 20th century. The US east coast also subsided since the Eocene, with wind-launched ocean eddies triggering formation and propagation in the South China Sea.
A new study by NCAR and Ohio State University found that climate models consistently overstate Antarctic warming, but still project significant sea-level rise due to melting ice sheets. The researchers suggest that warmer temperatures could slow down or speed up sea-level rise depending on future temperature increases.
The researchers propose designing a cost-effective machine for running climate models and improving predictions. They suggest using about 20 million embedded microprocessors, which would deliver results at a lower cost and power consumption than current conventional supercomputers.
A new study by University of Utah meteorologists finds that current climate models are accurate and can be valuable tools for reversing global warming trends. The study shows that coupled models can simulate present-day climate with accuracy approaching conventional observations.
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory scientists performed a 400-year high-resolution global ocean-atmosphere simulation using the Community Climate System Model (CCSM). The study achieved substantial improvements in simulated surface winds and sea surface temperatures, as well as improved tropical variability and Arctic sea ice thick...
Researchers at the Alfred Wegener Institute found that stratospheric ozone chemistry significantly influences the Arctic Oscillation, leading to changes in atmospheric air flows and temperature distribution. This basic knowledge is crucial for improving climate models and reducing uncertainty in simulated climate developments.
Scientists developed a new model to estimate sea ice thickness, using historical observations and environmental data analysis. The study shows that average ice thickness and total ice volume fluctuated together during the early period, peaking in the late 1980s before declining until the mid-1990s.
Scientists from Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory have pinpointed human-caused climate change as the cause of decreasing water flow in the West. The study found that warming temperatures and rising greenhouse gas levels are affecting snowpack, river flows, and ultimately, the water supply.
Recent research found California's temperatures have jumped statewide by more than 2.1 degrees Fahrenheit between 1915 and 2000, with the warming being fastest in late winter and early spring. The study suggests that natural causes alone cannot explain this trend and points to greenhouse gases and urbanization as contributing factors.
Researchers at the University of Michigan developed a new model that matches real-world measurements of saltation better than classical theory. This new knowledge helps scientists understand how aerosols are released, affecting Earth's climate by blocking and absorbing sunlight.
A new study found that leading global climate models do an unsatisfactory job of mimicking climate change, particularly in the lower and middle atmosphere. The researchers compared the models' output with actual climate data and found discrepancies, casting doubt on the reliability of these models for predicting future climate changes.
A study led by Purdue University predicts a significant increase in severe storms in the US, with areas like Atlanta and New York seeing more than double the chances of severe thunderstorms by the end of the century. The research used climate models to examine favorable conditions for storm formation.
A comprehensive study finds that climate change could lead to significant shifts in North American tree ranges, with potential decreases of up to 58% if species cannot disperse. The research used an extensive data-gathering effort and simulated two climate change scenarios.
A statistical model based on climate factors indicates that the estimated undercount of historic tropical storms in the Atlantic is only slightly below actual numbers. The researchers found that the average undercount bias from 1870 to 1944 was approximately one tropical storm per year.
Researchers challenge the prevailing view that the Colorado Plateau shifted north during the Jurassic Period, citing evidence from ancient dunes and climate modeling. The findings indicate the area remained at the equator, sparking a new conundrum in the scientific community.
Researchers at the University of Washington have devised a theory that links uncertainty in climate change with climate sensitivity. The theory, published in Science, provides a yardstick for testing climate models and shows that small uncertainties can be amplified into large ones.
A new report highlights the ongoing debate over climate change models, with scientists emphasizing the importance of understanding physical laws while acknowledging uncertainties. The Institute of Physics' report notes that while there is general consensus on climate causes, there is not unanimity among experts.
Researchers have identified human-induced changes in atmospheric moisture content using rigorous statistical methods. The study found that the atmosphere's water vapor content has increased by about 0.41 kg/m³ per decade since 1988, primarily due to human-caused greenhouse gas emissions.
A new NASA model simulates the strength of updrafts in severe storms, predicting more violent thunderstorms and tornadoes with a warmer climate. The study found that continents warm more than oceans, leading to stronger storms with fewer overall.
A call has been made for a Southern Hemisphere network of deep ocean moorings to monitor changes in the Southern Ocean circulation, which could influence global climate. The North Atlantic moored network provides measurements of the Gulf Stream, a significant feature in moderating European and North American climate.
Research suggests human activities are amplifying the impact of Sudden Oak Death, a forest-destroying disease caused by an invasive water mold. The study found that connected forests with high host species abundance have higher pathogen loads, while smaller, isolated forests have lower disease levels.
Peter J. Adams, an associate professor at Carnegie Mellon University, has been awarded a $900,000 research grant from the EPA to develop integrated models simulating air pollution from local to global scales. The study aims to improve understanding of particulate matter and its health impacts.
Researchers are working to understand regional climate change in North America, using models to predict impacts on agriculture and weather patterns. The Iowa State team has observed increased annual precipitation by about an inch over the past 30 years, which could be beneficial for Midwest agriculture.
Climate models predict the West Antarctic ice sheet and Arctic sea ice will collapse due to continued global warming. The researchers estimate that additional global warming of 1ºC above 2000 levels is likely to be 'dangerous'.
Research from Arizona State University highlights how global warming will drastically alter the world's fisheries, threatening human nutrition and species health. The study finds that changes in ocean temperatures and atmospheric conditions will affect fish stocks and habitats, leading to potential extinction of certain species.
A new report suggests that ocean warming may cause changes to the planet's rotation, potentially shortening the length of day by approximately 0.12 milliseconds. Additionally, researchers have found a link between seasonal seismicity in the Himalayas and fluid infiltration, which could modulate earthquake generation.
Climate model simulations indicate a robust increase in wind shear in the tropical Atlantic, which could counteract global warming's effects on hurricane intensity. The study suggests that increased wind shear may inhibit both hurricane development and intensification.
A new study predicts the disappearance of several existing climates by 2100 due to global warming, with novel climate zones emerging on up to 39% of the world's land surface area. The models also foresee significant impacts on ecosystems and biodiversity, highlighting the importance of understanding and coping with climate change.
Researchers at the University of Michigan have found that aerosols in clouds significantly impact climate models' ability to predict future temperature changes. The study compared two climate models with varying levels of aerosols and found divergent results, highlighting the need for more research to improve predictive capabilities.
The Model Coupling Toolkit enabled researchers to couple individual climate models into a single system, improving the accuracy of climate projections. The toolkit played a crucial role in preparing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's new report on climate change.
Researchers found that Antarctic temperatures did not increase as predicted by climate models, despite a global warming trend. The continent's vast size and limited data availability contribute to the discrepancy.
A new study has developed a generic global law to predict large-scale patterns in litter mass decay rates and nitrogen release from litter. The research found that the dominant drivers of nitrogen release were initial concentration and remaining mass of leaf and root litter.
A unique fishbone deforestation pattern in Rondonia, Brazil has been found to increase precipitation over deforested regions, resulting in increased vegetation growth. The study suggests that the pattern creates a localized low-pressure zone, leading to more cumulus clouds and rainfall.
A small-scale regional nuclear war could produce as many direct fatalities as all of World War II and disrupt the global climate for a decade or more. The environmental effects would be catastrophic and long-term, affecting regions far from the target areas or countries involved in the conflict.
A new climate model predicts that the Southern Ocean's absorption of heat and carbon dioxide will slow the rate of global warming. The ocean's ability to sequester heat and carbon dioxide could lead to sea level rise, but also change the chemistry of the water, making it less habitable for some marine organisms.
The U.S. will maintain a leadership role in science and technology thanks to Argonne's involvement in the SciDAC program. Projects focus on creating software and infrastructure for petascale supercomputers.
Scientists project that most of the world will face enhanced risks of heat waves, intense precipitation, and weather extremes by 2080-2099. The study used advanced climate models to analyze how weather extremes could change in the next century.
Climate scientists have detected human-induced climate change at a regional scale in Canada, southern Europe and China. The study uses four climate models to simulate climates over time periods, reproducing observed temperature changes that can't be explained by natural variability alone.
New research suggests that human-caused increases in greenhouse gases are directly linked to warming of tropical Atlantic and Pacific oceans, which contributes to hurricane intensity. The study used computer models to analyze SST changes in smaller hurricane formation regions.
Researchers at Oak Ridge National Laboratory have won five Department of Energy SciDAC awards to advance fundamental research in climate modeling, fusion energy sciences, and high-performance computing. The $60 million award will support leading-edge simulation computer programs over the next three to five years.
Scientists predict temperature increases of 1.6-6 degrees Celsius due to natural processes injecting more CO2 into the atmosphere, exceeding current models' 1.5-4.5 degree Celsius predictions.
A new model forecasts a significant decline in winter snowpack between now and 2100, affecting mountains in temperate zones. The Sierras, Cascades, and southern Rockies will be among the hardest hit, with some regions losing up to 64% of their current snowpack.
The study reveals that during periods of warm weather globally, the Pacific was cold and dry. Conversely, during cold weather elsewhere, the Pacific experienced warm and stormy conditions. This ancient climate data informs modern concerns about climate change in the Pacific region.
Researchers have discovered rivers beneath the ice in Antarctica, moving water hundreds of miles under the surface. The findings suggest that these lakes could support microbial life and potentially release large floods that could affect ocean circulation.
Regional climate model simulations indicate a significant increase in extreme precipitation events in Alpine regions and northern European locations above 45 degrees latitude. In Scandinavia, unusually strong events once expected to occur every century will now occur at 20-40 year intervals.