Articles tagged with Climate Modeling
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A new study by Matthew Widlansky and Axel Timmermann found that rainfall projections for South Pacific islands are highly uncertain due to two competing effects of greenhouse warming. The 'wet gets wetter' mechanism suggests heavier rainfall, while the 'warmest gets wetter' mechanism predicts drying in some regions.
Research models suggest varying geoengineering efforts can combat climate impacts in at-risk areas, reversing long-term changes in Arctic sea ice. A study published in Nature Climate Change found that tailoring geoengineering efforts by region and over time could potentially improve effectiveness and reduce risks.
The South Central Climate Science Center has received funding for seven projects, including studies on terrestrial connectivity, marsh types, and submersed aquatic vegetation in the Gulf of Mexico. These projects aim to improve management decisions for wildlife populations and coastal ecosystems.
A study found that climate-prediction models excel at predicting global climate trends over 30-year time frames but struggle with shorter time frames and smaller geographical regions. The researchers used historical climate records to evaluate seven computer simulation models, revealing their reliability on different scales.
A study by MIT estimates that tropical regions will see 10% heavier rainfall extremes with every 1 degree Celsius rise in temperature, posing significant risks for flooding. The research suggests a higher sensitivity of tropical extreme rainfall to global warming than previously thought.
Research finds that dry soils increase the likelihood of afternoon storms globally, contradicting current climate models. The study's findings have significant implications for predicting regional weather patterns and understanding global climate change.
Researchers at the University of Copenhagen have developed a model that links solar insolation to layer formation in Mars's ice caps. The model demonstrates a correlation between ice and dust accumulation and solar insolation, providing a dated climate history for Mars over 1 million years.
Researchers at ORNL have developed a new carbon cycling model that accounts for microbes' role in releasing CO2 from the ground, improving scientists' understanding of future climate change. The MEND model simulates carbon cycle processes and estimates parameters based on comprehensive literature review.
Researchers developed an online mapping tool analyzing how climate and other forces interact to threaten African community security. The tool ranks regions based on four sources of vulnerability, including physical exposure, population size, resilience, and governance effectiveness.
A study by Stanford University and the World Bank found that Tanzania has the potential to increase its maize exports due to predicted dry and hot weather affecting major consumer countries. The country's diverse trading partners could help hedge against severe dry weather, allowing it to profit from exports in good years.
Climate scientists repurpose Cold War research laboratories to track radioactivity and model nuclear bomb blasts, with applications in anthropogenic climate change. Nuclear science roots have also found a place in environmental scientists' toolboxes.
Researchers at the University of Bristol used climate and ice sheet models to identify the cause of rapid sea level rise in the past. They found that a process called 'saddle-collapse' led to two major events, including the 14,600-year-old Meltwater pulse 1a event, which resulted in a 9m sea level rise.
Climate models show that warmer beach conditions and increased frequency of hot years will lead to high egg and hatchling mortality rates among leatherback sea turtles. The eastern Pacific population is projected to decline by 75% by 2100, making conservation efforts crucial for their recovery.
A new collaborative study between the University of Miami and Navy Postgraduate School will investigate critical oceanic processes involved in Large-Scale Eddy-Driven Patterns (LEDPs). The project aims to improve understanding of LEDPs, which can impact climate projections and transport heat, salinity, momentum, and carbon.
A review of recent research articles found that the South Asian summer monsoon is expected to experience more variability in rainfall due to climate change. However, regional projections for devastating droughts and floods remain uncertain due to inconsistent observations and complex thermodynamic processes.
Climate change is expected to reduce the extent of Antarctic sea ice, threatening the Emperor penguin population, which may decline by up to 80% by 2100. The study used computer simulations and statistical models to project the impact of sea ice loss on penguin demographics.
A new study projects increased fire activity across large parts of the planet due to climate change, particularly in the western United States. Meanwhile, fire activity is expected to decrease in tropical rainforests as a result of increased rainfall.
New research by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory scientists reveals that human activities are the primary cause of global ocean warming over the past 50 years. The study analyzed observational and modeling uncertainties to confirm this conclusion.
A UC Riverside-led team identifies black carbon and tropospheric ozone as the primary drivers of large-scale atmospheric circulation change in the Northern hemisphere tropics. The expansion of the tropical belt is projected to impact regional agriculture, economy, and society due to changes in precipitation patterns.
Researchers at Ohio State University have combined different climate models using spatial statistics to project future seasonal temperature changes in North America. The analysis estimates that average land temperatures will rise around 2.5 degrees Celsius by 2070, with regional temperature rises varying across seasons and regions.
Climate change researcher Stephen Sheppard emphasizes the importance of using new visualization media to engage people in addressing climate change. He suggests that such media can be more effective than traditional models in making the future with climate change more real and compelling.
Climate experts at Stanford University discuss the compound effects of climate change and climate variability on global food markets. The symposium highlights two key challenges: extreme temperatures and El Niñ-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon.
A study led by Phil Duffy of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory found that previously rare high summertime temperatures are already occurring more frequently in some US regions. By mid-century, these extreme summer temperatures will occur in well over 50% of summers throughout the lower 48 states.
Researchers aim to make climate research more accessible by relating global data to local needs. Cesar Izaurralde discusses the implications of increasing CO2 concentrations and how to mitigate them. The symposium explores innovative approaches to climate change communication.
Researchers examine evidence for a non-synchronous global event during the end-Permian mass extinction, and study how weak faults form through chemical reactions. They also propose a revised model of geomorphic response to climate change based on observations in Israel.
A new study suggests that Colorado's Rocky Mountains will experience a near elimination of surface hail by 2070. The warmer climate could lead to more runoff and an increased risk of flash floods. Meanwhile, intense storms may produce more hail inside clouds, but it will melt quickly and fall as rain.
A new study suggests that climate models may grossly underestimate future extinctions by neglecting species competition and movement. Animals with small geographic ranges and specific habitat needs are likely to go extinct, while those with wider tolerances will thrive.
Researchers at the University of Gothenburg have collected new data that may lead to better climate models. Plant emissions are influenced by climate change, increasing the rate of biological processes and particle formation, which in turn affects cloud formation and precipitation.
A new study by Indiana University researchers finds that climate change will outpace species' ability to adapt, with ranges shifting dramatically between now and 2100. The rate of future change in suitable habitat will be two to three orders of magnitude greater than the average change over the past 300 millennia.
New research emphasizes the importance of considering human-environment interactions in climate change models, as growing populations contribute to extreme weather conditions. The study suggests a complex-systems approach to modeling climate change, taking into account human behavior components.
Berkeley researchers are exploring a co-design approach to scientific computing, which brings together scientists and computer engineers to create purpose-built systems for specific applications. This could lead to increased code efficiency, reduced energy consumption, and faster modeling of complex problems like clouds.
A new study suggests that global warming from CO2 doubling may be less severe than projected, with climate sensitivity constraints implying less probability of extreme climatic change. The researchers used paleoclimatic data and a more advanced climate model to find that high sensitivity models overestimate cooling.
A study published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences finds a strong correlation between precipitation patterns in the Northeast and Southwest. Researchers used sediment layers to reconstruct records and found that extreme weather events are predicted by climate models.
A study projects an increase of up to 350% in Mediterranean forest formations like holm oak and juniper due to CO2 concentration increases. In contrast, cold-adapted species may shrink by 99%. The prediction could have significant impacts on biodiversity conservation.
A new tool, COSP, has been developed to help scientists better represent clouds in climate models. It allows for a meaningful comparison between model-simulated clouds and corresponding satellite observations, eliminating ambiguities in direct comparisons.
Researchers at Georgia Institute of Technology developed a model that can be added to existing climate simulations, showing insoluble dust particles form more droplets than thought. This discovery could improve the accuracy of regional climate models, especially in areas with significant amounts of mineral aerosols.
Scientists warn that current climate model predictions are unreliable due to measurement uncertainties. A new satellite concept, TRUTHS, aims to improve accuracy by calibrating other satellites and facilitating the establishment of a global network with robust quality guarantees.
A new study finds that Arctic sea ice under current climate conditions is as likely to expand as it is to contract for periods of up to about a decade. Researchers used computer modeling to simulate the behavior of the ice and found that it may temporarily stabilize or slightly increase in extent over the next few decades. However, lon...
A team of ecologists models climate change effects on fire occurrence and composition of Yellowstone forests, finding a tipping element that may alter the flora, fauna, and ecosystem quality. The researchers predict frequent fires will become the norm in parts of the landscape by 2050.
A new climate study by Stanford University scientists predicts that tropical regions will experience permanent summer heat increases, with many areas seeing unprecedented extreme temperatures. This could lead to severe consequences for human health, agriculture, and ecosystems.
A pair of Indiana University scientists analyzed regional climate models to assess future wind patterns in the US. They found that most areas will see little or no change in wind density, with high wind potential over the Great Lakes and parts of Mexico.
A recent Columbia University study reveals that the ozone hole has a significant impact on tropical precipitation, affecting rainfall in the Southern Hemisphere. The research demonstrates that ozone depletion is linked to climate change, with far-reaching consequences for international agreements on mitigating global warming.
Scientists from Brookhaven National Laboratory are heading to Oklahoma to take atmospheric measurements and improve global climate models. The six-week study will provide the most complete characterization of convective cloud systems ever obtained, enabling more accurate representation of these processes in climate models.
A new method using leaf size and shape traits reconstructs past climates over 120 million years with improved accuracy. The study, funded by NSF, offers strong improvements in precision over existing models.
Researchers at University of Washington and Stanford University report turbulence at a front near Japan, 10-20 times more energetic than wind generated. This finding provides first direct observations of an ocean front's dynamics on scales from kilometers to millimeters.
A $2 million DOE grant supports collaboration between researchers and modelers to improve climate change policy analysis. The program aims to bridge the gap between empirical analysts and modelers, leveraging joint research and workshops to foster communication and cross-fertilization of ideas.
A new multi-institutional center will develop tools to help governments, businesses, and individuals make informed decisions on climate and energy policies. The Center will utilize a new modeling framework, CIM-EARTH, to provide insights to policymakers and promote open science.
A new analysis finds that Arctic snow and sea ice decline has doubled the estimate of climate models, suggesting more significant amplification of warming. The study suggests that as temperatures warm, energy is absorbed by the Earth instead of being reflected back into the atmosphere.
A University of Washington scientist found that summertime coastal fog has declined and coastal temperatures have increased slightly since 1950. Climate models predict an increase in fog, but regional patterns may be overriding this effect.
Scientists developed an instrument that measures individual particle sizes and compositions, revealing a complex landscape of aerosol particles. The research improved computer models of the atmosphere by accounting for the varying effects of different chemistries on climate.
Current global climate models predict varying levels of warming, with disagreement mainly stemming from different representations of clouds. Researchers from the University of Hawaii at Manoa have assessed model performance in simulating clouds, presenting a new approach to determining expected cloud feedbacks in a warmer climate.
A new citizen scientist initiative is expanding regional climate modeling efforts, exploring southern Africa, Europe, and the western US, using idle computers of thousands of volunteers. The project aims to fine-tune future climate models by comparing simulations with real data and analyzing changes over the past 50 years.
Researchers have developed a mathematical model that predicts relationships among leaf functions based on three properties of the vein network: density, distance between veins, and number of loops. The study indicates that plants with denser vein networks can absorb more carbon while withstanding higher levels of water loss.
Research scientist Alessandra Giannini wins NSF CAREER award to advance understanding of climate model projections in the African Sahel. She aims to identify mechanisms attributed to natural variability, land use change, or global warming, using data from global models and atmospheric observations.
Researchers used corals as a proxy to study the shift in the ocean's thermocline, finding it has risen since the mid-1970s. The findings support climate model predictions and suggest a potential impact on global climate and oceanography.
Researchers developed a new approach to determining the optimal distribution of sulfates in the stratosphere to achieve defined climate goals. The study found that uniformly distributed aerosols can minimize both temperature changes and hydrological cycle alterations, with potential reductions of up to 90% and two-thirds, respectively.
Scientists found that irrigation can have a significant cooling effect on regional temperatures, with some areas experiencing up to 3 degrees C cooling. However, the study also warns of impending water scarcity due to overuse of groundwater aquifers, which could exacerbate food shortages and temperature increases.
Researchers discovered a relict coral reef in the southern Pacific Ocean that thrived thousands of years ago, providing insight into how reefs adapted to sea level changes. Additionally, heavy snowfall in the US and Europe was caused by the collision of El Niño and negative North Atlantic Oscillation weather patterns.
A new project aims to enhance the accuracy of climate models by leveraging data mining techniques. The collaboration between UT and ORNL will help predict large shifts in regional climate patterns and improve predictions of severe meteorological and hydrological events.
The Community Earth System Model (CESM) is a powerful new computer software that will be used in the next IPCC assessment to study climate change. With its advanced capabilities, scientists can shed light on critical mysteries of global warming, including ice sheet melting and regional climate patterns.