Articles tagged with Climate Modeling
Researchers predict significant changes in summer ranges of endangered Indiana bats due to climate change. Suitable habitats are expected to shift to the northeastern US and Appalachian Mountains.
Scientists analyzed fossil corals to expand El Nino-Southern Oscillation information, helping assess accuracy of climate models for 21st century change in the tropical Pacific. The study detected a modest increase in 20th century ENSO strength, but also found higher levels of variability 400 years ago.
Researchers detect volcanic carbon monoxide emissions via satellite sensors, estimating a global emission of approximately 5.5 teragrams per year. Antarctic sea ice thickness affects algae populations, with varying seasonal patterns and relationships between surface, interior, and underside layers.
The inclusion of intense but small-scale polar storms in climate models could lead to a different picture of climate change. Adding these storms results in significant changes in ocean circulation, including an increase in heat traveling north in the Atlantic Ocean.
A new climate model simulates the effects of Arctic hurricanes on ocean water circulation and climate, suggesting potentially cooler conditions in Europe and North America. The research finds that polar lows influence the sinking of dense cold water in the North Atlantic, driving large-scale ocean circulation.
Regional climate models project warmer temperatures and wetter winters in the Northeast US by 2070, with temperatures rising 2-3 degrees C and winter precipitation increasing 12-15%. However, confidence in spring, summer, and autumn precipitation changes is lower.
Research found that climate change affects rare plants by moving upslope and downslope, driven by changes in seasonality and water availability. The study aims to shed light on historical processes behind biodiversity patterns in the region.
A recent study published in Tellus A found that none of the 23 climate models evaluated can reliably predict weather patterns for seasonal to decadal time scales. The researchers suggest that improvements in model quality require a better understanding of atmospheric processes and more comprehensive data records, particularly from the ...
Climate scientists analyzed satellite observations and computer model simulations to find a human-caused climate change signal. The study found that tropospheric and stratospheric temperature changes are related to human activities, with the lower stratosphere cooling due to ozone depletion.
A new study finds that the tropical Indo-Pacific climate has shifted to a more El Niño-like state, leading to a slowdown of the Walker circulation. This change is driven by a gradual warming pattern in the region, which can impact global climate patterns and lead to extreme weather events.
Scientists predict that Greenland's ice sheet will lose more ice and snow to melting than it will accumulate over the next century due to warming temperatures. Basins on the southwest and north coasts will suffer the greatest losses, with temperatures only needing to increase by 0.6-2.16C for net loss.
Scientists from Michigan State University predict climate change will kill off swaths of bamboo, making prime panda habitat inhospitable by 21st century. The study suggests proactive planning to protect areas with suitable food sources and creating natural bridges for pandas to escape bamboo famine.
A new study by Matthew Widlansky and Axel Timmermann found that rainfall projections for South Pacific islands are highly uncertain due to two competing effects of greenhouse warming. The 'wet gets wetter' mechanism suggests heavier rainfall, while the 'warmest gets wetter' mechanism predicts drying in some regions.
Research models suggest varying geoengineering efforts can combat climate impacts in at-risk areas, reversing long-term changes in Arctic sea ice. A study published in Nature Climate Change found that tailoring geoengineering efforts by region and over time could potentially improve effectiveness and reduce risks.
The South Central Climate Science Center has received funding for seven projects, including studies on terrestrial connectivity, marsh types, and submersed aquatic vegetation in the Gulf of Mexico. These projects aim to improve management decisions for wildlife populations and coastal ecosystems.
A study found that climate-prediction models excel at predicting global climate trends over 30-year time frames but struggle with shorter time frames and smaller geographical regions. The researchers used historical climate records to evaluate seven computer simulation models, revealing their reliability on different scales.
A study by MIT estimates that tropical regions will see 10% heavier rainfall extremes with every 1 degree Celsius rise in temperature, posing significant risks for flooding. The research suggests a higher sensitivity of tropical extreme rainfall to global warming than previously thought.
Research finds that dry soils increase the likelihood of afternoon storms globally, contradicting current climate models. The study's findings have significant implications for predicting regional weather patterns and understanding global climate change.
Researchers at the University of Copenhagen have developed a model that links solar insolation to layer formation in Mars's ice caps. The model demonstrates a correlation between ice and dust accumulation and solar insolation, providing a dated climate history for Mars over 1 million years.
Researchers at ORNL have developed a new carbon cycling model that accounts for microbes' role in releasing CO2 from the ground, improving scientists' understanding of future climate change. The MEND model simulates carbon cycle processes and estimates parameters based on comprehensive literature review.
Researchers developed an online mapping tool analyzing how climate and other forces interact to threaten African community security. The tool ranks regions based on four sources of vulnerability, including physical exposure, population size, resilience, and governance effectiveness.
A study by Stanford University and the World Bank found that Tanzania has the potential to increase its maize exports due to predicted dry and hot weather affecting major consumer countries. The country's diverse trading partners could help hedge against severe dry weather, allowing it to profit from exports in good years.
Climate scientists repurpose Cold War research laboratories to track radioactivity and model nuclear bomb blasts, with applications in anthropogenic climate change. Nuclear science roots have also found a place in environmental scientists' toolboxes.
Researchers at the University of Bristol used climate and ice sheet models to identify the cause of rapid sea level rise in the past. They found that a process called 'saddle-collapse' led to two major events, including the 14,600-year-old Meltwater pulse 1a event, which resulted in a 9m sea level rise.
Climate models show that warmer beach conditions and increased frequency of hot years will lead to high egg and hatchling mortality rates among leatherback sea turtles. The eastern Pacific population is projected to decline by 75% by 2100, making conservation efforts crucial for their recovery.
A new collaborative study between the University of Miami and Navy Postgraduate School will investigate critical oceanic processes involved in Large-Scale Eddy-Driven Patterns (LEDPs). The project aims to improve understanding of LEDPs, which can impact climate projections and transport heat, salinity, momentum, and carbon.
A review of recent research articles found that the South Asian summer monsoon is expected to experience more variability in rainfall due to climate change. However, regional projections for devastating droughts and floods remain uncertain due to inconsistent observations and complex thermodynamic processes.
Climate change is expected to reduce the extent of Antarctic sea ice, threatening the Emperor penguin population, which may decline by up to 80% by 2100. The study used computer simulations and statistical models to project the impact of sea ice loss on penguin demographics.
A new study projects increased fire activity across large parts of the planet due to climate change, particularly in the western United States. Meanwhile, fire activity is expected to decrease in tropical rainforests as a result of increased rainfall.
New research by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory scientists reveals that human activities are the primary cause of global ocean warming over the past 50 years. The study analyzed observational and modeling uncertainties to confirm this conclusion.
A UC Riverside-led team identifies black carbon and tropospheric ozone as the primary drivers of large-scale atmospheric circulation change in the Northern hemisphere tropics. The expansion of the tropical belt is projected to impact regional agriculture, economy, and society due to changes in precipitation patterns.
Researchers at Ohio State University have combined different climate models using spatial statistics to project future seasonal temperature changes in North America. The analysis estimates that average land temperatures will rise around 2.5 degrees Celsius by 2070, with regional temperature rises varying across seasons and regions.
Climate experts at Stanford University discuss the compound effects of climate change and climate variability on global food markets. The symposium highlights two key challenges: extreme temperatures and El Niñ-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon.
Climate change researcher Stephen Sheppard emphasizes the importance of using new visualization media to engage people in addressing climate change. He suggests that such media can be more effective than traditional models in making the future with climate change more real and compelling.
A study led by Phil Duffy of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory found that previously rare high summertime temperatures are already occurring more frequently in some US regions. By mid-century, these extreme summer temperatures will occur in well over 50% of summers throughout the lower 48 states.
Researchers aim to make climate research more accessible by relating global data to local needs. Cesar Izaurralde discusses the implications of increasing CO2 concentrations and how to mitigate them. The symposium explores innovative approaches to climate change communication.
Researchers examine evidence for a non-synchronous global event during the end-Permian mass extinction, and study how weak faults form through chemical reactions. They also propose a revised model of geomorphic response to climate change based on observations in Israel.
A new study suggests that Colorado's Rocky Mountains will experience a near elimination of surface hail by 2070. The warmer climate could lead to more runoff and an increased risk of flash floods. Meanwhile, intense storms may produce more hail inside clouds, but it will melt quickly and fall as rain.
A new study suggests that climate models may grossly underestimate future extinctions by neglecting species competition and movement. Animals with small geographic ranges and specific habitat needs are likely to go extinct, while those with wider tolerances will thrive.
Researchers at the University of Gothenburg have collected new data that may lead to better climate models. Plant emissions are influenced by climate change, increasing the rate of biological processes and particle formation, which in turn affects cloud formation and precipitation.
A new study by Indiana University researchers finds that climate change will outpace species' ability to adapt, with ranges shifting dramatically between now and 2100. The rate of future change in suitable habitat will be two to three orders of magnitude greater than the average change over the past 300 millennia.
New research emphasizes the importance of considering human-environment interactions in climate change models, as growing populations contribute to extreme weather conditions. The study suggests a complex-systems approach to modeling climate change, taking into account human behavior components.
Berkeley researchers are exploring a co-design approach to scientific computing, which brings together scientists and computer engineers to create purpose-built systems for specific applications. This could lead to increased code efficiency, reduced energy consumption, and faster modeling of complex problems like clouds.
A new study suggests that global warming from CO2 doubling may be less severe than projected, with climate sensitivity constraints implying less probability of extreme climatic change. The researchers used paleoclimatic data and a more advanced climate model to find that high sensitivity models overestimate cooling.
A study published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences finds a strong correlation between precipitation patterns in the Northeast and Southwest. Researchers used sediment layers to reconstruct records and found that extreme weather events are predicted by climate models.
A study projects an increase of up to 350% in Mediterranean forest formations like holm oak and juniper due to CO2 concentration increases. In contrast, cold-adapted species may shrink by 99%. The prediction could have significant impacts on biodiversity conservation.
A new tool, COSP, has been developed to help scientists better represent clouds in climate models. It allows for a meaningful comparison between model-simulated clouds and corresponding satellite observations, eliminating ambiguities in direct comparisons.
Researchers at Georgia Institute of Technology developed a model that can be added to existing climate simulations, showing insoluble dust particles form more droplets than thought. This discovery could improve the accuracy of regional climate models, especially in areas with significant amounts of mineral aerosols.
Scientists warn that current climate model predictions are unreliable due to measurement uncertainties. A new satellite concept, TRUTHS, aims to improve accuracy by calibrating other satellites and facilitating the establishment of a global network with robust quality guarantees.
A new study finds that Arctic sea ice under current climate conditions is as likely to expand as it is to contract for periods of up to about a decade. Researchers used computer modeling to simulate the behavior of the ice and found that it may temporarily stabilize or slightly increase in extent over the next few decades. However, lon...
A team of ecologists models climate change effects on fire occurrence and composition of Yellowstone forests, finding a tipping element that may alter the flora, fauna, and ecosystem quality. The researchers predict frequent fires will become the norm in parts of the landscape by 2050.
A new climate study by Stanford University scientists predicts that tropical regions will experience permanent summer heat increases, with many areas seeing unprecedented extreme temperatures. This could lead to severe consequences for human health, agriculture, and ecosystems.
A pair of Indiana University scientists analyzed regional climate models to assess future wind patterns in the US. They found that most areas will see little or no change in wind density, with high wind potential over the Great Lakes and parts of Mexico.
A recent Columbia University study reveals that the ozone hole has a significant impact on tropical precipitation, affecting rainfall in the Southern Hemisphere. The research demonstrates that ozone depletion is linked to climate change, with far-reaching consequences for international agreements on mitigating global warming.
Scientists from Brookhaven National Laboratory are heading to Oklahoma to take atmospheric measurements and improve global climate models. The six-week study will provide the most complete characterization of convective cloud systems ever obtained, enabling more accurate representation of these processes in climate models.
A new method using leaf size and shape traits reconstructs past climates over 120 million years with improved accuracy. The study, funded by NSF, offers strong improvements in precision over existing models.
Researchers at University of Washington and Stanford University report turbulence at a front near Japan, 10-20 times more energetic than wind generated. This finding provides first direct observations of an ocean front's dynamics on scales from kilometers to millimeters.
A $2 million DOE grant supports collaboration between researchers and modelers to improve climate change policy analysis. The program aims to bridge the gap between empirical analysts and modelers, leveraging joint research and workshops to foster communication and cross-fertilization of ideas.
A new multi-institutional center will develop tools to help governments, businesses, and individuals make informed decisions on climate and energy policies. The Center will utilize a new modeling framework, CIM-EARTH, to provide insights to policymakers and promote open science.
A new analysis finds that Arctic snow and sea ice decline has doubled the estimate of climate models, suggesting more significant amplification of warming. The study suggests that as temperatures warm, energy is absorbed by the Earth instead of being reflected back into the atmosphere.