SimEarth
The Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) simulates the Earth's atmosphere, oceanic, land and ice components together. The new model can help researchers anticipate decadal-scale changes that could influence the U.S. energy sector.
Climate Modeling
Articles tagged with Climate Modeling
Temperature swings to hit poor countries hardest
New research suggests that poor countries will experience significant increases in temperature variability due to climate change. The study found that up to 15% more extreme temperature fluctuations are predicted for southern Africa and Amazonia, highlighting the unfair pattern of climate impacts on vulnerable populations.
Better species mapping can improve conservation efforts, study finds
A new study found that scientific models used to determine which species and habitats to protect lack critical information, leading to ineffective conservation efforts. The research highlights the need for more accurate species distribution models to target conservation efforts in areas with the most impact.
Reconstruction of major North Atlantic circulation system shows weakening
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) has slowed down by about 15 percent since the 1950s, with recent years showing a record low. This weakening is linked to rising carbon dioxide levels and impacts fish distributions, ocean temperatures, and fisheries in the Northeast U.S. Shelf.
New technique more accurately reflects ponds on Arctic sea ice
Researchers at UChicago developed a new mathematical method to accurately predict the shape and melting effects of ponds on Arctic sea ice. This technique, known as the 'void' model, could help improve climate forecasts and understanding by addressing discrepancies in previous models.
Climate and ocean pH on early Earth
Researchers estimate early Earth's climate as temperate, with temperatures ranging from 0-50 °C. Ocean pH increased steadily from acidic to mildly basic over the past 4 billion years.
SourceProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences·JournalProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences·DateApr 2, 2018
New climate model developed by Russian and German scientists
A new climate model, POEM, has been developed by Russian and German scientists to accelerate research in climate science. The model addresses complex tasks such as ice age periodization and climate forecasting, providing a more efficient alternative to existing models.
Scientists accurately model the action of aerosols on clouds
Researchers have developed a high-resolution climate model that accurately simulates the interaction between aerosols and clouds. The model shows that increasing aerosol density can lead to a decrease in cloud cover in certain areas, contradicting previous assumptions.
New understanding of ocean turbulence could improve climate models
Brown University researchers discovered that mesoscale eddies in the global ocean tend to merge into larger ones, unlike smaller eddies which break up into smaller scales. This finding could help develop coarser-grained ocean simulations that better capture ocean dynamics.
Risk of extreme weather events higher if Paris Agreement goals aren't met
A Stanford University study found that even a 1-degree difference between the UN goal and country commitments may increase extreme weather likelihood. The researchers predict a fivefold increase in record-breaking warm nights over Europe and a threefold increase in record-breaking wet days over North America, Europe, and East Asia.
New model for evaluating rangeland systems launches
The G-Range model allows for single-process global simulations, providing insights into rangeland resilience to climate change. It supports policymakers in making informed decisions on rangeland management policies and practices.
Most of last 11,000 years cooler than past decade in North America, Europe
A new climate study found that recent temperatures across North America and Europe are unusually high, exceeding past decade highs by 0.5 degrees Fahrenheit, and have few natural precedents over the last 11,000 years. The research suggests that human activity has significantly contributed to this warming trend.
Better data needed to monitor the impact of air pollution on health and climate
A new study highlights the need for more detailed information about pollutant emissions to improve air quality models. Current data gaps lead to uncertainty in emission figures, affecting policymakers' decisions.
SourceTaylor & Francis Group·JournalJournal of the Air & Waste Management Association·DateJan 24, 2018
New Eocene fossil data suggest climate models may underestimate future polar warming
A new analysis of marine fossils reveals that polar oceans warmed more than previously thought during the Eocene, a greenhouse period. The study's findings challenge modern climate models, which underestimated polar ocean warming by about 50 percent.
SourceFlorida Museum of Natural History·JournalProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences·DateJan 22, 2018
Better predicting mountains' flora and fauna in a changing world
Researchers used a combination of conventional and remotely-sensed climate measurements to model the future distributions of bamboo species in southwestern China. This approach increased confidence in model results, providing valuable guidance for conservation planning and nuanced decision-making.
Modeling trends in global water storage
Researchers compared global water storage trends from 2002-2014 using GRACE satellite data and seven hydrology models. The study found that model projections of climate and human-induced changes are likely underestimates.
SourceProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences·JournalProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences·DateJan 22, 2018
Predicting seasonal snowpack
Researchers used global climate models to predict March US snowpack based on July 1 conditions, outperforming statistical predictions. This approach could improve water management and hazard preparedness.
SourceProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences·JournalProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences·DateJan 22, 2018
The complexities of clouds and the seeds that make them
Researchers analyzed three weather systems to understand how aerosols influence cloud formation and development. The study highlights the complexity of aerosol-cloud-precipitation-radiation interactions, which vary on a case-by-case basis.
SourceInstitute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences·JournalAdvances in Atmospheric Sciences·DateJan 10, 2018
Advances in Atmospheric Science launches special issue on cloud studies
A new special issue of Advances in Atmospheric Science explores the effects of aerosols on climate, with studies focusing on aerosol-cloud interactions, cloud-base height, and fine aerosol particles. The research aims to improve weather forecasting and climate models, shedding light on a crucial topic despite years of inquiry.
SourceInstitute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences·JournalAdvances in Atmospheric Sciences·DateJan 9, 2018
Spotty coverage: Climate models underestimate cooling effect of daily cloud cycle
Princeton University researchers found that climate models overestimate the sun's daily heat, resulting in warmer and drier conditions. The study used satellite images to calculate diurnal cycles of clouds worldwide and compared them to nine climate models, revealing a significant error in timing.
Predicting the effect of climate change on crop yields
Researchers at University of Illinois create new maize growth model by integrating features from Community Land Model and Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator. The new model can simulate crop yields with improved accuracy and mechanism, correcting deficiencies in the original CLM model.
SourceUniversity of Illinois College of Agricultural, Consumer and Environmental Sciences·JournalAgricultural and Forest Meteorology·DateJan 3, 2018
Curbing climate change
A new model investigates how human behavioral changes evolve in response to extreme climate events and affect global temperature change. Long-term, less easily reversed behavioral changes have the most significant impact in mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and reducing climate change.
SourceNational Institute for Mathematical and Biological Synthesis (NIMBioS)·JournalNature Climate Change·DateJan 1, 2018
Cutting-edge statistics yield new insight into attributing, projecting climate change
Researchers propose new statistical methodology to understand climate system and attribute extreme climatic events. This approach views extreme events as a given and assesses the degree of changes in thermodynamic state variables influenced by climate change.
Warmer, wetter climate could mean stronger, more intense storms
High-resolution climate simulations suggest that extreme thunderstorms will increase in frequency under a warmer climate scenario. This shift is caused by changes in thermodynamic conditions of the atmosphere.
High-resolution climate models present alarming new projections for US
High-resolution climate models project significant changes in US temperature patterns, including extreme heat events and altered growing seasons. The southeastern US will experience maximum summer temperatures every other day by late-century.
Extreme fieldwork, climate modeling yields new insight into predicting Greenland's melt
A UCLA-led team used extreme fieldwork and climate modeling to unravel a meltwater mystery on Greenland's ice sheet. They discovered that sunlight penetrating into the ice causes subsurface melting and storage of meltwater, leading to discrepancies between models' estimates and real-time data.
SourceUniversity of California - Los Angeles·JournalProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences·DateDec 8, 2017
More-severe climate model predictions could be the most accurate
Researchers from Carnegie Institution for Science found that climate models projecting greater amounts of warming are more likely to align with current observations. The study suggests that models simulating reduced cloud cooling in the future tend to predict greater future warming.
Scientists find why CP El Niño is harder to predict than EP El Niño
Researchers Prof. Fei Zheng and Jin-Yi Yu found significant skill score differences between EP and CP El Niño events, with EP events better predicted at all lead times. This is attributed to systematic forecast biases and an overly warm eastern Pacific during the spring season for CP El Niño prediction.
SourceInstitute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences·JournalAdvances in Atmospheric Sciences·DateNov 22, 2017
Climate change models of bird impacts pass the test
A study by the University of Adelaide validated the latest climate change models forecasting bird impacts, showing they accurately predict range shifts over the past 40 years. The models now provide a more effective tool for targeting conservation management resources.
Groundwater recharge in the American west under climate change
A new study projects that groundwater recharge will increase in the northern US and decrease in the south as climate change takes hold. The research used global climate models and found varying effects across different hydro-climatic regions, highlighting the need for better management and policy.
Study reveals decadal variation of relationship between EA summer monsoon and ENSO
A study reveals multidecadal variations in the relationship between East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The research used a coupled climate model to investigate the decadal changes, finding that ENSO-related circulation anomalies drive precipitation patterns over East Asia.
SourceInstitute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences·JournalClimate Dynamics·DateNov 8, 2017
A new method to evaluate overall performance of a climate model
A new multivariable integrated evaluation (MVIE) method provides a comprehensive and quantitative evaluation of climate model performance. The method includes three levels of statistical metrics, offering an integrated evaluation of model performance in simulating multiple fields.
SourceInstitute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences·JournalGeoscientific Model Development·DateNov 3, 2017
To grasp water scarcity, OSU researchers probe links between human and natural systems
A study by OSU researchers used a coupled modeling approach to analyze the interactions between natural water supply and human demand, revealing key findings including the importance of economics in understanding water scarcity and counterintuitive effects of urban expansion and climate change.
SourceOregon State University·JournalProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences·DateOct 23, 2017
Cool roofs have water saving benefits too
A new Berkeley Lab study finds that cool roofs can save up to 9% of outdoor water consumption in California counties. Widespread adoption could result in 83 million gallons of water savings daily in Los Angeles County.
Rainfall trends in arid regions buck commonly held climate change theories
Researchers analyzed 50 years of rainfall data in a semi-arid drainage basin in Arizona, finding a decline in heavy rainfall events despite increased total rainfall. A new model simulates convective rainfall and shows less runoff from dryland basins under climate change.
Antarctica: Return of the Weddell polynya supports Kiel climate model
The Weddell Sea has formed a large ice-free area, supporting the Kiel climate model. This natural phenomenon plays a crucial role in sea ice formation and deep water circulation. Scientists closely monitor its occurrence to improve climate models and differentiate between natural variability and human-induced changes.
SourceHelmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel (GEOMAR)·JournalCurrent Climate Change Reports·DateSep 29, 2017
Warming climate could increase bacterial impacts on Chesapeake Bay shellfish, recreation
Researchers found that warming climate conditions could lead to significant economic and healthcare costs due to increased occurrences of Vibrio bacteria in Chesapeake Bay. The study used a new downscaling framework to project future increases in Vibrio species, highlighting the need for models of climate impact on estuarine environments.
New hope for limiting warming to 1.5°C
Researchers from the University of Oxford and international partners found that achieving the Paris Agreement's goal of 1.5°C global warming requires more ambitious emission cuts than initially estimated. The study suggests that limiting total CO2 emissions to below 240 billion tonnes could achieve this goal.
Letting the data speak for itself
Researchers developed a flexible geostatistical model that captures both types of asymptotic dependence and accurately estimates extremal dependence type. The new model outperforms other typical models in terms of fit to the data and spatial prediction of extreme wind speeds.
SourceKing Abdullah University of Science & Technology (KAUST)·JournalSpatial Statistics·DateSep 12, 2017
Penn: How openings in Antarctic sea ice affect worldwide climate
Researchers analyze climate models to show that polynyas in the Southern Ocean can release heat into the atmosphere, warming temperatures and wind patterns globally. This process also affects tropical rainfall and water resources in regions like Indonesia and South America.
Climate change expected to increase premature deaths from air pollution
A new study estimates that climate change will cause 60,000 premature deaths globally by 2030 and 260,000 by 2100 due to increased air pollution. The research uses global climate models to predict changes in air quality and health outcomes.
Climate change means more rain, more nitrogen runoff, more problems
A new study finds that climate change will lead to a significant increase in nitrogen runoff in the US, with projected increases of up to 19% by 2100. This excess nitrogen can cause algal blooms, harming human health, aquatic ecosystems, and the economy.
Atlantic/Pacific ocean temperature difference fuels US wildfires
A new study reveals that the Atlantic and Pacific ocean temperatures play a significant role in droughts and wildfires in southwestern North America. The research shows that the large-scale difference between the two oceans enhances the risk for drought and wildfire in the region.
Titan simulations show importance of close 2-way coupling between human and Earth systems
A new integrated Earth System Model (iESM) reduces uncertainties in future climate predictions by coupling physical, biological processes with human activities. The iESM is being used to explore interactions among the physical climate system, biological components of the Earth system, and human systems.
New model projects an increase in dust storms in the US
A new statistical model projects an increase in dust storms in the southern Great Plains from spring to fall in the late half of the 21st century due to reduced rainfall and increased land surface bareness. Climate change is also predicted to reduce dust activity in the northern Great Plains in spring during the same time period.
California projected to get wetter through this century
UC Riverside researchers predict California will see a 12% increase in precipitation by 2100, with northern and central regions experiencing the largest increases. The study attributes this change to a southeastward shift of the jet stream, encouraged by warming sea surface temperatures.
Reconciled: Climate sensitivity estimates between models and historical data
Scientists developed a method to compare climate model sensitivities with historical data, showing good agreement. Accounting for slow mode feedback, the temperature range of climate sensitivity from historical data is consistent with climate models, implying a higher sensitivity to carbon dioxide emissions.
SourceAmerican Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)·JournalScience Advances·DateJul 5, 2017
Story tips from the Department of Energy's Oak Ridge National Laboratory, July 2017
The lab's integrated computational model reduces uncertainty in climate predictions by coupling Earth systems with energy models. A secure platform developed for the Department of Veterans Affairs promises to improve health outcomes for millions of veterans.
Figuring out how fast Greenland is melting
A new study from University of Arizona scientists has analyzed Greenland's past temperatures to better understand the island's vast ice sheet melting. The research found that current temperatures are warmer than the 1930s, with a long-term trend for ever-higher surface temperatures.
Improved representation of solar variability in climate models
A new dataset provides improved representation of solar variability, enabling more accurate climate model simulations and distinguishing natural from anthropogenic processes. The dataset includes enhanced estimates of solar forcing and particle effects, which may counteract rising Earth temperatures.
SourceHelmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel (GEOMAR)·JournalGeoscientific Model Development·DateJul 3, 2017
This week from AGU: Remarkable 2016 storms caused massive Antarctic sea ice loss
A new study in Geophysical Research Letters finds that a series of unprecedented storms over the Southern Ocean likely caused the most dramatic decline in Antarctic sea ice seen to date. The extreme weather event led to significant losses of sea ice, with researchers suggesting that the storms' impact was exacerbated by climate change.
Improving adolescents' social and emotional lives must go beyond teaching them skills
Effective SEL programs focus on improving emotional environments, values, and mindsets rather than just teaching skills, according to UT Austin psychology assistant professor David Yeager. These approaches help teens find purpose in learning and communities, leading to improved academic performance and social-emotional well-being.
Scientists take first tentative steps to explore potential climate of Proxima B
Researchers used the Met Office Unified Model to simulate Proxima B's climate, finding it could have a habitable atmosphere and stable climate regime. The team also explored different atmospheric compositions and orbital configurations, suggesting the planet could support life.
Varied increases in extreme rainfall with global warming
A new study reveals that extreme rainfall events will increase in intensity globally, with varying degrees of impact depending on region. Regions such as North America and Europe can expect a 25% increase in intense rainfall by 4°C warming, while the Asian monsoon region may see even greater increases.
Extinction of Alpine plants may remain undetectable for a long time
Researchers have developed a new model to predict the extinction of alpine plants, finding that populations are not adapting quickly enough to climate change. The study shows that even favorable climate scenarios can lead to population decline if warming continues without restraint.
Snow in Hawai'i: What does the future hold?
A regional climate model predicts that future Hawaiian snowfalls will decrease dramatically, with average winter snowfall expected to be ten times less than present day amounts by the end of the century. The study provides insights into the benefits of model downscaling and highlights the need for monitoring climate change in the region.
Stanford researchers analyze what a warming planet means for mosquito-borne diseases
The study modeled how rising temperatures influence mosquito behavior and disease risk worldwide. Mosquito traits favorable to spreading disease peaked at 29 degrees Celsius, but were lower when temperatures were cooler or warmer.
Application of statistical method shows promise mitigating climate change effects on pine
A new statistical model has been developed to help guide forest management decisions under climate change. The model uses future climate scenarios to produce more accurate predictions than previous methods, allowing for the design of strategies that mitigate climate change impacts on loblolly pine plantations.
SourceAmerican Statistical Association·JournalJournal of the American Statistical Association·DateApr 20, 2017
Study on impact of climate change on snowpack loss in Western US
A recent study found that climate change has led to a 20% loss in the annual maximum amount of water contained in the Western US's mountain snowpack over the last three decades. The researchers estimate that further losses of up to 60% could occur within the next 30 years, posing significant economic and societal impacts.
Models, observations not so far apart on planet's response to greenhouse gas emissions
A University of Washington study shows that two leading methods for calculating the planet's response to greenhouse gas emissions are not as far apart as previously thought. The study, published in Nature Climate Change, found that recent observations support a climate sensitivity of about 2.9 degrees Celsius.