Articles tagged with Climate Modeling
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High-resolution climate models project significant changes in US temperature patterns, including extreme heat events and altered growing seasons. The southeastern US will experience maximum summer temperatures every other day by late-century.
A UCLA-led team used extreme fieldwork and climate modeling to unravel a meltwater mystery on Greenland's ice sheet. They discovered that sunlight penetrating into the ice causes subsurface melting and storage of meltwater, leading to discrepancies between models' estimates and real-time data.
Researchers from Carnegie Institution for Science found that climate models projecting greater amounts of warming are more likely to align with current observations. The study suggests that models simulating reduced cloud cooling in the future tend to predict greater future warming.
Researchers Prof. Fei Zheng and Jin-Yi Yu found significant skill score differences between EP and CP El Niño events, with EP events better predicted at all lead times. This is attributed to systematic forecast biases and an overly warm eastern Pacific during the spring season for CP El Niño prediction.
A study by the University of Adelaide validated the latest climate change models forecasting bird impacts, showing they accurately predict range shifts over the past 40 years. The models now provide a more effective tool for targeting conservation management resources.
A new study projects that groundwater recharge will increase in the northern US and decrease in the south as climate change takes hold. The research used global climate models and found varying effects across different hydro-climatic regions, highlighting the need for better management and policy.
A study reveals multidecadal variations in the relationship between East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The research used a coupled climate model to investigate the decadal changes, finding that ENSO-related circulation anomalies drive precipitation patterns over East Asia.
A new multivariable integrated evaluation (MVIE) method provides a comprehensive and quantitative evaluation of climate model performance. The method includes three levels of statistical metrics, offering an integrated evaluation of model performance in simulating multiple fields.
A study by OSU researchers used a coupled modeling approach to analyze the interactions between natural water supply and human demand, revealing key findings including the importance of economics in understanding water scarcity and counterintuitive effects of urban expansion and climate change.
A new Berkeley Lab study finds that cool roofs can save up to 9% of outdoor water consumption in California counties. Widespread adoption could result in 83 million gallons of water savings daily in Los Angeles County.
Researchers analyzed 50 years of rainfall data in a semi-arid drainage basin in Arizona, finding a decline in heavy rainfall events despite increased total rainfall. A new model simulates convective rainfall and shows less runoff from dryland basins under climate change.
The Weddell Sea has formed a large ice-free area, supporting the Kiel climate model. This natural phenomenon plays a crucial role in sea ice formation and deep water circulation. Scientists closely monitor its occurrence to improve climate models and differentiate between natural variability and human-induced changes.
Researchers found that warming climate conditions could lead to significant economic and healthcare costs due to increased occurrences of Vibrio bacteria in Chesapeake Bay. The study used a new downscaling framework to project future increases in Vibrio species, highlighting the need for models of climate impact on estuarine environments.
Researchers from the University of Oxford and international partners found that achieving the Paris Agreement's goal of 1.5°C global warming requires more ambitious emission cuts than initially estimated. The study suggests that limiting total CO2 emissions to below 240 billion tonnes could achieve this goal.
Researchers developed a flexible geostatistical model that captures both types of asymptotic dependence and accurately estimates extremal dependence type. The new model outperforms other typical models in terms of fit to the data and spatial prediction of extreme wind speeds.
Researchers analyze climate models to show that polynyas in the Southern Ocean can release heat into the atmosphere, warming temperatures and wind patterns globally. This process also affects tropical rainfall and water resources in regions like Indonesia and South America.
A new study estimates that climate change will cause 60,000 premature deaths globally by 2030 and 260,000 by 2100 due to increased air pollution. The research uses global climate models to predict changes in air quality and health outcomes.
A new study finds that climate change will lead to a significant increase in nitrogen runoff in the US, with projected increases of up to 19% by 2100. This excess nitrogen can cause algal blooms, harming human health, aquatic ecosystems, and the economy.
A new study reveals that the Atlantic and Pacific ocean temperatures play a significant role in droughts and wildfires in southwestern North America. The research shows that the large-scale difference between the two oceans enhances the risk for drought and wildfire in the region.
A new integrated Earth System Model (iESM) reduces uncertainties in future climate predictions by coupling physical, biological processes with human activities. The iESM is being used to explore interactions among the physical climate system, biological components of the Earth system, and human systems.
A new statistical model projects an increase in dust storms in the southern Great Plains from spring to fall in the late half of the 21st century due to reduced rainfall and increased land surface bareness. Climate change is also predicted to reduce dust activity in the northern Great Plains in spring during the same time period.
UC Riverside researchers predict California will see a 12% increase in precipitation by 2100, with northern and central regions experiencing the largest increases. The study attributes this change to a southeastward shift of the jet stream, encouraged by warming sea surface temperatures.
A new study from University of Arizona scientists has analyzed Greenland's past temperatures to better understand the island's vast ice sheet melting. The research found that current temperatures are warmer than the 1930s, with a long-term trend for ever-higher surface temperatures.
Scientists developed a method to compare climate model sensitivities with historical data, showing good agreement. Accounting for slow mode feedback, the temperature range of climate sensitivity from historical data is consistent with climate models, implying a higher sensitivity to carbon dioxide emissions.
The lab's integrated computational model reduces uncertainty in climate predictions by coupling Earth systems with energy models. A secure platform developed for the Department of Veterans Affairs promises to improve health outcomes for millions of veterans.
A new dataset provides improved representation of solar variability, enabling more accurate climate model simulations and distinguishing natural from anthropogenic processes. The dataset includes enhanced estimates of solar forcing and particle effects, which may counteract rising Earth temperatures.
A new study in Geophysical Research Letters finds that a series of unprecedented storms over the Southern Ocean likely caused the most dramatic decline in Antarctic sea ice seen to date. The extreme weather event led to significant losses of sea ice, with researchers suggesting that the storms' impact was exacerbated by climate change.
Effective SEL programs focus on improving emotional environments, values, and mindsets rather than just teaching skills, according to UT Austin psychology assistant professor David Yeager. These approaches help teens find purpose in learning and communities, leading to improved academic performance and social-emotional well-being.
Researchers used the Met Office Unified Model to simulate Proxima B's climate, finding it could have a habitable atmosphere and stable climate regime. The team also explored different atmospheric compositions and orbital configurations, suggesting the planet could support life.
A new study reveals that extreme rainfall events will increase in intensity globally, with varying degrees of impact depending on region. Regions such as North America and Europe can expect a 25% increase in intense rainfall by 4°C warming, while the Asian monsoon region may see even greater increases.
Researchers have developed a new model to predict the extinction of alpine plants, finding that populations are not adapting quickly enough to climate change. The study shows that even favorable climate scenarios can lead to population decline if warming continues without restraint.
A regional climate model predicts that future Hawaiian snowfalls will decrease dramatically, with average winter snowfall expected to be ten times less than present day amounts by the end of the century. The study provides insights into the benefits of model downscaling and highlights the need for monitoring climate change in the region.
The study modeled how rising temperatures influence mosquito behavior and disease risk worldwide. Mosquito traits favorable to spreading disease peaked at 29 degrees Celsius, but were lower when temperatures were cooler or warmer.
A new statistical model has been developed to help guide forest management decisions under climate change. The model uses future climate scenarios to produce more accurate predictions than previous methods, allowing for the design of strategies that mitigate climate change impacts on loblolly pine plantations.
A recent study found that climate change has led to a 20% loss in the annual maximum amount of water contained in the Western US's mountain snowpack over the last three decades. The researchers estimate that further losses of up to 60% could occur within the next 30 years, posing significant economic and societal impacts.
A University of Washington study shows that two leading methods for calculating the planet's response to greenhouse gas emissions are not as far apart as previously thought. The study, published in Nature Climate Change, found that recent observations support a climate sensitivity of about 2.9 degrees Celsius.
The RegCM4 model simulates China's climate well, reproducing present-day climatology and interannual variabilities. However, it exhibits biases in winter temperatures and precipitation, with underestimation of heavy rainfall events and overestimation of consecutive dry days.
Researchers found a connection between climate change and extreme weather events, such as heat waves, droughts, and floods, due to the impact of warming Arctic temperatures on the jet stream. The study used historical atmospheric observations and confirmed that this temperature pattern corresponds with persistent extreme weather events.
A University of Connecticut climate scientist confirms that global warming will lead to more intense and frequent severe rainstorms. Data shows the intensity of these storms increases with rising temperatures, contradicting some observations suggesting a fixed upper temperature limit.
Researchers warn that climate change will continue to shrink the Colorado River's flows, reducing water supplies for seven US Western states and Mexico. With temperatures projected to rise and precipitation uncertainty, future drought periods are likely, posing significant challenges for water managers.
Scientists at Berkeley Lab developed a new model that captures tropical cyclones and extreme waves more accurately than existing models. Running models at a higher resolution of 25 kilometers instead of 100 kilometers improves predictions for coastal cities, industries relying on shipping, and surfers.
Researchers found that climate models underestimates high-elevation temperature changes, with errors of up to 40%, likely due to flawed water vapor content representation. This could lead to more extreme warming in fragile ecosystems like tropical glaciers.
A new study reveals that tiny particles can shield pollutants like polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) from degradation, allowing them to travel farther and increasing lung cancer risk. The findings quadruple the estimated global lung cancer risk from a pollutant caused by combustion, exceeding World Health Organization limits.
A new study reveals that sea-surface temperatures during the last interglaciation period were comparable to those of today. The analysis of 104 marine sediment core sites suggests that global ocean SSTs simulated by most climate models are too low, and that oceans may respond differently to modern warming.
Researchers improve climate models by incorporating industrial ecology approaches, including metal recycling, to consider a wider spectrum of mitigation options. This could enable IAMs to predict more realistic scenarios and inform policymakers about the potential impact of different strategies.
Researchers at the University of Massachusetts Amherst predict that Northeast US temperatures will increase much faster than the global average, reaching a 2-degrees Celsius warming target about 20 years earlier. The study finds regional variations in climate change impacts, including wetter winters and drier summers.
A new study predicts that California will experience three more extreme precipitation events per year by 2100 as the Earth's climate warms. The researchers developed a technique to identify large-scale patterns in atmospheric data, significantly reducing uncertainty in extreme storm predictions.
Researchers found a significant link between Antarctic Ice Sheet variability and global climate patterns over the past 8,000 years. The study suggests that ocean temperature changes in the Southern Hemisphere drive ice sheet melting and influence sea levels globally.
Research from the University of Southampton found that the world's wet regions are getting wetter and dry regions are getting drier, with a change of about 2% over the last 60 years. This process is called amplification of the water cycle, which is happening at a slower rate than previously predicted.
A study examines the impact of climate change on freshwater species in New South Wales, Australia. At least a third of species are likely to lose more than half their range under climate change. The researchers hope that better communicating modeling uncertainty can inform adaptive management and balance risks.
A new study by a team of American geophysicists found that Antarctica warmed about 11 degrees Celsius between 20,000 and 10,000 years ago, 2 to 3 times the average temperature increase worldwide. The disparity highlights the amplification of warming at poles consistent with today's climate change models.
Researchers have developed an integrated model that connects atmospheric and lake body interactions, enabling feedback between variables. This two-way coupling approach simulates hydrodynamics of the Great Lakes region with high resolution, providing a more nuanced view of regional climate change.
New research suggests that Lake Champlain may be more susceptible to climate change-induced damage than previously thought. The study's findings indicate that the current pollution standards may not be enough to prevent worsening algae blooms and water quality problems.
Low-level clouds in the tropics cool the planet by reflecting solar radiation, but their impact on climate depends on spatial pattern. The study suggests that recent observed trends may underestimate global warming due to increased carbon dioxide.
Research predicts an increase in water availability in the Blue Nile Basin of Ethiopia due to climate change, potentially allowing for two crops per year. However, increased sediment transport poses a challenge, highlighting the need for conservation practices and efficient irrigation development.
Biologists call for global data collection to improve model predictions for species response to climate change, citing a lack of key biological mechanisms and data as the main obstacle. A globally coordinated effort could greatly advance improvements in models and informed conservation approaches.
The US Department of Energy's Oak Ridge National Laboratory has received $39.8M in Exascale Computing Project funding to develop advanced modeling and simulation solutions for key DOE missions in science, clean energy, and national security.
Using high-resolution cloud models, researchers uncover the processes taking place in the atmosphere, revealing a 'memory' state of organisation that leads to heavy rain. Collisions between clouds produce heavier rain, contradicting traditional global climate models where convective clouds are seen as independent.
Climate researchers found that global climate models become increasingly uncertain when making predictions at scales below approximately 600 miles for temperature changes and 1200 miles for precipitation patterns. This makes it difficult to predict regional variations, such as the difference in warming between Indianapolis and Pittsburgh.
Scientists warn that global warming signals are masked by random weather variations, but expect increased snowfall in Antarctica due to higher moisture levels. The study concludes that the human influence on Antarctic surface mass balance will become detectable within the next few decades.