Articles tagged with Climate Modeling
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An international team of researchers is exploring how human occupation and land use over hundreds of years affected the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, one of the world's most critically threatened tropical forests. The study aims to produce an 'atlas of human impact' using historical, archaeological, and ecological data.
Researchers have found that corals in the northern Red Sea have not experienced mass bleaching despite high heat stress due to their acquired temperature tolerance around 7,000 years ago. The region's reefs are expected to be among the last standing by the end of the century under projected warming scenarios.
Researchers used a new model to predict the environmental effects of increased desalination and climate change in the Gulf region through 2050. They found that while salinity increases may occur, their impact on marine life is unlikely to be significant.
A University of Houston researcher has developed a method to describe complex systems using the least number of variables possible, reducing complexity from millions to just one. This advancement speeds up science with efficiency and ability to understand and predict natural system behavior.
Scientists analyze past El Niño events to better understand climate patterns over the past 12,000 years. They found that Eastern Pacific events have increased in frequency, while Central Pacific and Coastal events have decreased, resulting in changes in hydroclimate in the tropical Pacific.
A study by Hokkaido University reveals that the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has caused more frequent heavy rainfall in the Mekong Delta, resulting in increased flooding risk. The findings suggest that better weather predictions and preparation can help mitigate the negative effects of floods and droughts in the region.
Researchers found that the Southern Hemisphere is stormier than the Northern, with a 24% difference attributed to ocean circulation and mountain ranges in the Northern Hemisphere. The study also shows that storminess has increased since the 1980s, consistent with climate change forecasts.
Researchers found that nitrogen-fixing trees experience 26% more herbivory than non-fixers, reducing their ability to alleviate nitrogen deficits in tropical soils. This selective feeding by insects and other animals limits the success of fixers and the nitrogen they provide.
A new optimization model by GIST researchers reduces operating costs and load shedding in microgrids, achieving a 20% decrease in average ENS. The model accounts for variations and uncertainty in renewable energy supply using an ANN-based prediction model, with predicted power output accuracy of 9.7%.
A study by the University of Reading found that up to 20-25% of UK land may be suitable for growing high-quality Chardonnay still wines by 2050. The regions with the best conditions are expected to be South East England, East of England, and Central England.
Researchers found that using coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice circulation models with observation-based datasets, they can predict Antarctic sea ice variability over decadal time scales. The initialization of subsurface ocean temperature and salinity fields significantly improves prediction skills, especially in the west Antarctic region.
The Southern Hemisphere is stormier than the Northern due to ocean circulation and mountain ranges in the Northern Hemisphere. Since the 1980s, storminess has increased in the Southern Hemisphere, while the Northern Hemisphere has seen negligible changes.
A study from Nagoya University reveals that atmospheric secondary particle formation influences the number of cloud condensation nuclei in remote areas. This leads to a greater cooling effect by clouds on climate change. The research aims to improve climate model accuracy and predict future climate change.
Researchers at the University of Bern have developed a new method to determine necessary emission reductions on a continuous basis. The AERA algorithm adjusts CO2 emissions according to latest temperature data, enabling more precise calculations.
A four-year experiment combined with a 40-year observation in Inner Mongolia found that previous-year extreme droughts can create strong positive legacies for current-year community productivity. The mechanism driving this effect is the coupled increase of annuals and an early less, middle more precipitation pattern.
A new model reveals that warmer Arctic Ocean evaporation transports moisture south, leading to increased snowfall in northern Eurasia. The study sheds light on the mechanism of this phenomenon and its impact on severe weather events.
Researchers developed a modeling framework using remote sensing data to predict gully erosion susceptibility. They found that spatiotemporal changes in land cover and precipitation were crucial in predicting gully formation in agricultural areas, with 7.4% of the study area having an elevated risk of developing gullies.
Climate models show promise in simulating sea level trends, but biases persist, particularly in reproducing interannual signals over subtropical regions. Higher model resolution reduces nearshore bias, highlighting the importance of improved ocean process representation.
A new study models likely future cliff retreat rates of two rock coasts in the UK, finding that rock coasts are likely to retreat at a rate not seen for 3,000-5,000 years. The researchers predict that rock coast cliffs will retreat by at least 10-22 meters inland due to accelerating sea level rise.
Scientists have found early warning signals for climate tipping in the Amazon Rainforest, West-Central Greenland ice sheet, and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. The study provides a clear mathematical understanding of increased variability, sensitivity, critical slowing down, and being close to a tipping point.
A new study documents the central role of Arctic vegetation in warming for the first time. The researchers found that different types of vegetation have varying effects on surface energy conversion, with dry areas producing greater warming than wet areas.
A new study by UNSW and the University of Melbourne found that estimates of Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) for large dams in Australia are expected to increase by 14-38% on average over the next 80 years. This is due to climate change and outdated modelling, which has not been updated since at least 20 years ago.
A research team at UNIST has identified subtropical low cloud feedback as a key mechanism driving teleconnections between the Southern Ocean and tropical precipitation. Their findings suggest that this impact is stronger than previously thought, with implications for mid-latitude climate predictions.
New research finds climate change could lead to more frequent lightning strikes over mountains and Northern Europe, triggering increased wildfire risks. However, relatively fewer lightning hazards are expected over populated areas of Central Europe.
New research suggests that the world will probably warm beyond the 1.5-degree limit set by the 2015 Paris Agreement, but peak warming can be minimized by adopting more ambitious climate pledges and decarbonizing faster. The study models scenarios to explore what degree of warming would likely follow different courses of action, highlig...
Researchers found significant biases in climate models' simulation of long-term memory in temperature series, especially in equatorial and coastal regions. This may be due to imperfectly simulated coupled processes between oceans and atmosphere, leading to uncertainty in regional climate change predictions.
Researchers will develop a new model to describe complex soot particles in the atmosphere, improving accuracy in predicting climate warming caused by soot. The project aims to reduce uncertainty over soot's impact on climate change and air quality.
Researchers found a 22,000-year cycle in the Earth-sun distance affecting the Pacific cold tongue, impacting El Niño/La Niña events and North American weather. The study suggests that the changing distance may have long-term historical effects on other weather systems.
The study found that the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream could add a half-inch or more of water to sea levels by the end of this century. The researchers used satellite data and numerical modeling with GPS data collected from the harsh interior of Greenland over the past decade.
A joint study by the Institute of Atmospheric Physics and the Met Office reduces projection uncertainty in extreme precipitation by 20-40% in mid-to-high latitudes. The emergent relationship between present-day precipitation variability and climate model projections provides a new constraint for more reliable projections.
Researchers used machine learning to track turbulent structures in fusion reactors, gaining detailed information on their behavior and heat flows. The approach enables more accurate engineering requirements for reactor walls and could lead to improved energy efficiency.
Research published in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics found that particles with two phases can form when different types of SOA mix. The number of phases depends on the difference in oxygen-to-carbon ratio between the given SOA types.
A study found atmospheric aerosol concentrations decreasing in Europe since 2000, but ground measurements and climate models show differing trends. The greatest differences were found in particle size, which affects cloud formation.
A University of California, Davis study reveals that air temperature and cloud cover are influenced by the buoyancy effect of water vapor, which is currently neglected in some leading global climate models. This effect can lead to an error of up to 50% in low cloud cover predictions, impacting the planet's energy balance.
Researchers developed an AI-based model that combines artificial intelligence and weather forecast models to predict extreme wildfire danger with high accuracy. The new method can produce forecasts of extreme fire danger out to one week at finer scales (4km x 4km resolution), increasing its utility for fire suppression and management.
The study forecasts cumulative emissions from the 'country of permafrost' through 2100 under low, medium, and high warming scenarios. Under a low warming scenario, permafrost would release 55 petagrams of carbon by the end of the century, while potentially releasing 232 Pg if left unchecked.
Researchers created global temperature maps of Earth during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, a time period similar to our own future under climate change. The study found that the climate was more sensitive to carbon dioxide increases than previously thought, with sensitivity between 5.7 to 7.4 degrees Celsius per doubling.
A new study led by PSU researchers finds that climate models can accurately simulate large-scale weather patterns over the Pacific Northwest. The study uses data from the state-of-the-art CMIP6 model and machine learning techniques to compare model outputs with historical observed data, finding a strong match between the two.
Research identifies Colorado River flow decline as main cause of Salton Sea's shrinking, leading to increased salt and chemical concentrations. The study highlights the need for a watershed-centric approach to mitigate the environmental risks and health impacts of the Salton Sea's decline.
A recent study investigated the effects of climate change on wheat yields in North America, revealing that new and old varieties respond differently to rising temperatures. The research found a declining rate of improvement in both winter and spring wheat yields with increased warming.
A new study reveals that global warming has doubled the probability of extreme ocean warming events in Japan's marginal seas since the 2000s. The increased occurrence frequency is attributed to human-induced climate changes, with most events linked to global warming.
Scientists have observed distinct seasonal movements in the flow of land-based ice draining into George VI Ice Shelf on the Antarctic Peninsula, with glaciers speeding up by approximately 15% during the Antarctic summer. This finding suggests that similar seasonal variability may exist at other vulnerable sites in Antarctica, potential...
The Earth System Grid Federation is upgrading its climate projection data system to improve access and curation, with the goal of enabling scientists to make the best guess about the future trajectory of our climate. The new system will provide faster download speeds and enable previously infeasible data analyses.
New research simulates climate warming and ocean acidification in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean, finding that high emissions could lead to critically warm temperatures as early as 2050. Reducing emissions may delay this onset, giving coral conservation programs more time to adapt.
Researchers used machine learning algorithms to optimize climate models, increasing their accuracy and detail. By applying Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) to climate simulations, the team was able to improve the models' ability to represent extreme precipitation events.
Researchers used largest temperature reconstruction database to find no globally synchronous warm period during the Holocene. Regional variability in temperature suggests high latitude insolation played a major role in driving climate changes.
A team of scientists from the University of Exeter has made a key breakthrough in predicting fluctuations in the rotation of the Earth and the length of the day. They used mathematical modeling to show that changes in the atmosphere can be predicted more than a year in advance, linking geodesy with climate prediction.
Researchers have discovered that small eddies, swirling at the edges of massive ocean currents, are a key source of nutrients for phytoplankton. These nutrient-rich eddies help maintain healthy populations of phytoplankton, which are essential for carbon sequestration and mitigating climate change effects.
A Newcastle University study has developed a machine learning tool that can predict the performance properties of land plant Rubisco proteins with high accuracy. This prediction will enable researchers to identify and engineer 'supercharged' Rubisco proteins that can increase atmospheric CO2 uptake and store in crops such as wheat.
A new study predicts that global warming will shorten safe ice conditions on frozen lakes by 2-3 weeks over the next 80 years. This will have a significant impact on indigenous communities and regional economies that rely on ice roads.
A new study by UCLA climate scientist Karen McKinnon found that the 2021 Pacific Northwest heat wave was roughly a once-in-10,000-years event. The research analyzed historical trends and climate model simulations, concluding that climate change is increasing heat waves and average summer temperatures at the same pace.
MIT researchers create a low-power, sound-harvesting camera that captures color photos and transmits data wirelessly. The autonomous device can run for weeks without power, enabling scientists to explore remote oceans and monitor climate change impacts.
A study reveals that global warming will impact major astronomical observatories worldwide, increasing temperature and atmospheric water content by 2050. This could lead to reduced observing time and quality in ground-based astronomy.
A recent study reveals that anthropogenic air pollution contributes significantly to poor air quality and climate change in the Middle East. The research found that hazardous fine particulate matter from human activities accounts for around 53% of aerosol visible optical depth, posing a significant health risk.
Researchers applied a new integrated model linking surface water to groundwater to estimate water resources at high spatial resolution. The study found that irrigation increases atmospheric water loss but reduces groundwater support, especially during dry seasons.
A new study shows that precipitation events decrease atmospheric aerosol concentrations, particularly sulphate, in boreal forest environments. The researchers found significant formation of sulphate mass in non-precipitating clouds, which can improve the accuracy of climate models estimating aerosol transport.
A recent study published in Advances in Atmospheric Sciences identifies compensating errors in widely used climate model protocols, known as CMIP6. The researchers analyzed five CMIP6 models and found large uncertainties in cloud microphysical properties, including cloud fraction, liquid water path, and droplet effective radius.
Researchers found that models using soil moisture explain 30-120% more year-to-year variation in yield than those relying on rainfall, revealing a critical link between temperature and water supply for crops. Extreme heat is less damaging to crop yields than previously estimated, while drought and flooding sensitivity increases.
Researchers emphasize the importance of understanding climate tipping points, which can occur abruptly in response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. They recommend a special report on tipping points by the IPCC and improved monitoring of critical chokepoints, such as ice sheets and tropical systems.
Researchers found climate models are less accurate in projecting how tropical cyclones will affect individual coral reefs, highlighting the importance of targeted conservation efforts. The study urges caution when using climate models to identify vulnerable reef communities to storm damage.