Research modeling the climate and its extremes. Covers climate extremes, ocean-dipole types, weather forecasting, and AI ecosystem monitoring.
Research reveals that heatwaves like the 2003 European heatwave could become the new norm, with increased mortality risks, especially for the elderly and poor. Ideal temperature ranges vary by location, and climate models predict a significant increase in heat-related deaths in coming years.
A new climate modeling method called ensemble boosting can simulate a large set of extreme but plausible heat waves, providing a worst-case scenario for planning and preparation. This method helps prepare for the potential loss of tens of thousands of lives in extreme heat waves.
A new study reveals that volcanic eruptions can temporarily weaken the Pacific Walker Circulation, a major driver of global precipitation. The recent strengthening of this circulation suggests that aerosols from human activity may have an opposite effect on its behavior.
A new study reveals that the Pacific Walker Circulation has changed its behavior over the industrial era, with volcanic eruptions causing temporary weakening of the circulation. This could lead to more frequent multi-year La Niña or El Niño events, exacerbating climate-related risks.
A modeling study suggests the US can achieve deep emissions reductions in the building sector by 91% by 2050, primarily through demand-side measures. This would save over $100 billion per year in energy-related costs while meeting the country's net-zero emissions target.
Scientists have developed a new method to study phytoplankton nutrient limitations using satellite remote sensing technologies, providing insights into the global ocean's carbon cycle. The research found that phytoplankton were limited by either iron or nitrogen, leading to distinct fluorescence signals detected by satellites.
Scientists have found that dust storms in Alaska can cause ice formation in clouds, which could add to or help cool the planet. The particles from these storms contain more biological material than those from desert environments, making them effective at forming ice crystals.
A Dartmouth-led study suggests that expanded irrigation of corn and soybeans in the US could outweigh costs by mid-century. The research found that certain regions, such as North Dakota and Michigan, would benefit from irrigation due to increasing drought conditions.
A new study suggests that applying crushed volcanic rocks to agricultural fields can draw down 217 gigatons of carbon dioxide, meeting the lower end of the IPCC's 2100 target. The method, called enhanced rock weathering, is more efficient in hot and wet tropical regions and works well in warmer temperatures.
A new study found that a massive North Atlantic cooling event led to the disruption of early human occupation in Europe, with climate stress changing the course of early human history. The study used observational and modeling evidence to document the unprecedented climate anomaly.
Researchers found a pre-historic climate tipping point that explains why the Horn of Africa is getting drier despite rising temperatures. The study suggests that the region will become even drier in the future, contradicting most climate models' predictions.
Researchers at Washington University in St. Louis discovered that wildfires emit dark brown carbon, a potent climate-warming particle that absorbs solar radiation. This finding has broad implications for climate models and highlights the need to revise existing approaches to account for the unexpected effects of brown carbon.
A subpolar Atlantic plankton species was found in the central Arctic Ocean during the Last Interglacial period, indicating summers were ice-free. This discovery has implications for understanding Arctic climate dynamics without sea ice.
A recent study by GEOMAR researchers found that fluctuations in the Labrador Sea can significantly influence the strength of sinking processes east of Greenland. This phenomenon affects the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a crucial climate system that brings warm water from the Gulf of Mexico to Europe.
Researchers are working to understand and predict wildfires' effects on the environment, including their impact on the carbon cycle and biodiversity. Studies have shown that repeated wildfires can accelerate the transition from tree- to shrub-dominated ecosystems, reducing plant diversity.
A new economic model suggests that extreme climates during the Middle Pleistocene era drove human brain evolution through assortative mating. The study found that colder climates favored individuals with larger brains, leading to an increase in intelligence.
Researchers highlight the importance of tropical montane ecosystems and their limited data availability. The study proposes refining models to include socio-ecological diversity, emphasizing the need for a transdisciplinary network to quantify ecosystem services.
Researchers predict a significant increase in projected frequency of multiyear La Niña events under global warming. This is due to enhanced tropical-subtropical interaction and Pacific mean-state warming patterns.
Researchers developed an AI model powered by deep learning algorithms that outperforms traditional dynamic models in predicting central Pacific El Nino events. The study sheds light on the potential of AI to enhance seasonal forecasts, offering significant advancements in climate prediction.
A new model, the Carbon Neutrality Capacity Index (CNCI), evaluates contributions from various carbon sinks, including rock weathering and vegetation. The study reveals that Guizhou has a significantly higher CNCI than China's average, with regions like Libo and Pingtang showing surpluses.
Researchers at UC Santa Barbara's Climate Hazards Center have made significant advancements in predicting droughts and food shortages in the Eastern Horn of Africa, enabling agencies to take effective actions and provide humanitarian assistance. These early warnings have helped prevent devastating famines and saved millions of people f...
A new IIASA-led study addresses the challenge of adapting to climate change by proposing ways to better incorporate adaptive capacity into climate modeling tools. The researchers developed a data explorer to visualize global futures for indicators of adaptive capacity, enabling more precise risk estimates and reliable policy advice.
A recent study found significant changes in ocean color over the past two decades, affecting 56% of the world's oceans. The shift in color indicates changes in marine ecosystems, with tropical regions becoming greener due to human-induced climate change.
Researchers at Nagoya University found that Arctic dust is a significant source of particles forming ice crystals in Arctic low-level clouds. The findings suggest that Arctic dust can act efficiently as an ice nucleating particle, increasing the number of ice nucleating particles by over 100 times.
A new study suggests that while winter cover crops can reduce nitrogen pollution by up to 30%, their effectiveness will decrease under future climate scenarios. Illinois' corn yields are expected to suffer more than soybean yields, especially in southern regions, as warmer temperatures and changing rainfall patterns impact crop growth.
A study of maize hybrid varieties over 81 years found that while maize's tolerance to moderate heat stress has improved, its tolerance to severe heat stress has decreased. This shift in tolerance could have significant implications for climate change's impact on agriculture.
For over a billion years, the sun's atmospheric tide countered the moon's gravitational pull, keeping Earth's rotational rate steady and day length at 19.5 hours. This balance was disrupted by climate change, resulting in our current 24-hour day stretching to over 60 hours if not for the pause.
A University of California, Riverside-led team found that anthropogenic aerosol-driven changes in ocean circulation and interbasin heat transport are more effective in altering oceanic heat distribution than those driven by globally increasing greenhouse gases. This advance in understanding will help develop climate mitigation strategies.
A study using state-of-the-art climate models found that two-thirds of the selected CMIP6 models showed positive correlations between Asian-Pacific Oscillation (APO) and Southeast China precipitation, consistent with observations. The best-performing model ensemble (BMME) simulated the APO-associated precipitation and atmospheric anoma...
Researchers analyzed satellite data from 1967 to 2021, finding nearly twice as many grids with declining snow cover as advancing ones. Snow presence is decreasing in Arctic and southern latitudes, while some areas like Eastern Canada see an increase.
A new computer model forecasts yield for four key crops in the southeastern US, drawing on climate, groundwater, and agricultural data. The tool helps farmers and water resource managers identify ways to maximize crop yields while efficiently utilizing water and energy.
Researchers use artificial intelligence to predict where and why landslides occur, pinpointing key variables contributing to the earth's slip. Their new method improves accuracy and interpretability, making it more valuable for protecting lives and property.
A study by the University of Helsinki found that oxidized organic molecules from Amazon rainforests contribute to the formation of aerosol particles in the tropical free troposphere. These molecules, primarily composed of isoprene, can nucleate or condense on nanoparticles, impacting cloud formation and global climate.
A team of researchers at UC Irvine has developed a freely available computer model to estimate the economic costs of hurricanes and typhoons. The model combines data from climate change science and household vulnerability information, providing return periods of asset losses and helping countries better prepare for these disasters.
A new statistical learning approach developed by an international team has narrowed the range of likely future stratospheric water vapour amounts, ruling out extreme scenarios. This reduces uncertainty in climate change and its impact on the ozone layer's recovery.
Researchers found that volcanic eruptions' impact on climate is being underestimated by a factor of two to four in standard climate projections. Small-magnitude eruptions are responsible for as much as half of all sulphur gases emitted, with a significant collective effect.
A new IIASA-led study investigated the potential of engineered Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies, such as Direct Air Capture of CO2 (DACCS), to help bridge the gap between current emissions reductions and ambitious climate goals. The study found that novel CDR can keep pre-Paris climate targets within reach when accounting for ...
Research from Cornell University estimates that wildfire smoke can cause between 4,000 and 9,000 premature deaths and cost between $36 to $82 billion per year in the United States. Metropolitan regions near fire sources are likely to experience a large health burden and economic loss.
A recent study analyzed over 200 previous studies to assess the impact of irrigation on regional climates and environments. The researchers found that while irrigation supplies 40% of the world's food, it also has significant effects on regional climates and environments, with some areas being already unsustainable or verging on scarcity.
The article discusses the growing challenge of food security in Africa, particularly with regards to rice production and consumption. The research reveals that socioeconomic developments have a more substantial influence on rice availability than gradual climate change, but climatic anomalies pose a significant threat to stability. Div...
The UK is investing £11 million to improve forecast accuracy for extreme weather events like storms, floods and droughts. Scientists are focusing on atmospheric turbulence to create more detailed models.
A new study predicts Arctic sea ice will vanish by the 2030s if greenhouse gas emissions continue unchecked. The research, published in Nature Communications, analyzes 41 years of data and confirms human activities as the primary cause of Arctic sea ice decline.
Researchers develop new approach to quantify respiration and its temperature sensitivity in terrestrial ecosystems. Their findings suggest lower temperature sensitivities than previously thought, but caution that natural components alone cannot mitigate climate change.
A new study reveals that human activities such as groundwater withdrawal have shifted the Earth's rotational pole nearly a meter over two decades. This shift is caused by the redistribution of mass due to water movement, with implications for climate change and sea level rise.
Researchers found that controlled burns in key areas of northern California, western Oregon, and eastern Washington could drastically reduce wildfire smoke exposure throughout the entire western U.S. This is due to prevailing winds carrying smoke across the continent and abundant dense vegetation fueling smokey fires.
A team of researchers from Syracuse University and Texas A&M University applied a machine learning model to explore the sources of salinization and alkalinization in U.S. watersheds. The study found that human activities, such as road salt application, were major contributors to salinity, while natural processes dominated alkalinity.
The CAETÊ algorithm projects the future of vegetation in the Amazon, presenting scenarios for transformation driven by climate change. It shows that a drier climate could increase biodiversity but lower carbon storage, with carbon absorption dropping between 57.48% and 57.75% compared to regular climate conditions.
A new study finds coral disease is spreading globally, tripling over the past 25 years to 9.92%, and predicts 76.8% of reefs will be diseased by 2100 if temperatures continue to rise. Coral reefs support a quarter of the world's fish and are crucial for coastal communities.
Scientists at Rice University found a natural 150-day cycle in the north-south oscillation of atmospheric pressure patterns, influencing hemispheric-scale precipitation and ocean surface wind stress. This discovery challenges conventional wisdom about atmospheric organization and has implications for climate modeling.
Researchers found that warming conditions can shift mixotrophic microbes from carbon sinks to carbon emitters, potentially accelerating warming and creating a positive feedback loop. These tiny microbes, abundant in freshwater and marine environments, could act as early warning signals for climate change tipping points.
Researchers have created a detailed map of the geology beneath Thwaites Glacier in West Antarctica, showing that only about a fifth of the ground is sedimentary rock. This finding could affect how the glacier behaves as it retreats due to climate change, with potential implications for ice flow and loss from other glaciers.
A new Dartmouth study projects a 52% increase in extreme precipitation events in the Northeast by the end of the century. The region is expected to experience more frequent heavy rainfall events, with winter and spring contributing most to this projected increase.
Researchers at the University of Oklahoma predict that global flash droughts will increase globally, with the largest increases projected across North America and Europe. The study finds that flash drought risk over cropland is expected to increase by 1.5 times in North America and 1.7 times in Europe by 2100.
Researchers create an AI-based approach to predict precipitation intensity and variability, addressing the missing piece of cloud organization in traditional climate models. The new algorithm improves precipitation predictions, including extreme events, and enables better projections of future changes in the water cycle.
The FAO's AquaCrop model has been updated to simulate alfalfa yield with precision, offering valid predictions for different climates and zones. The new feature was developed by the University of Córdoba and IAS-CSIC, using data from Belgium, Turkey, and Canada.
New research shows that the Montreal Protocol is delaying the first ice-free Arctic summer by up to 15 years. The treaty's regulation of ozone-depleting substances has slowed global warming and preserved the ozone layer.
A new study reveals that microorganisms can adapt to temperature changes and even benefit from them. The organisms differ in their sensitivity to temperature changes, with bacteria being more sensitive than fungi. This adaptation allows them to store carbon in soil, slowing down global warming.
A new AI-enabled forecasting model can predict ENSO events for up to 22 months, overcoming the limitations of previous models. The Spatio-Temporal Information Extraction and Fusion (STIEF) model uses deep learning to extract space and time features and fuse them together, providing a more accurate prediction length.
A new study by Penn State researchers found that some climate mitigation strategies could result in harmful health impacts in specific areas, particularly if significant land use changes are required for bioenergy production. This could lead to worsened respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, resulting in premature deaths.
A University of Leicester-led study suggests that ancient lakes existed in South Africa's interior during the last Ice Age, supporting hunter-gatherer communities. The research provides new insights into human migration patterns and ecosystem sensitivity to global climate change.