Articles tagged with Climate Modeling
Researchers at UC Santa Barbara's Climate Hazards Center have made significant advancements in predicting droughts and food shortages in the Eastern Horn of Africa, enabling agencies to take effective actions and provide humanitarian assistance. These early warnings have helped prevent devastating famines and saved millions of people f...
A new IIASA-led study addresses the challenge of adapting to climate change by proposing ways to better incorporate adaptive capacity into climate modeling tools. The researchers developed a data explorer to visualize global futures for indicators of adaptive capacity, enabling more precise risk estimates and reliable policy advice.
A recent study found significant changes in ocean color over the past two decades, affecting 56% of the world's oceans. The shift in color indicates changes in marine ecosystems, with tropical regions becoming greener due to human-induced climate change.
Researchers at Nagoya University found that Arctic dust is a significant source of particles forming ice crystals in Arctic low-level clouds. The findings suggest that Arctic dust can act efficiently as an ice nucleating particle, increasing the number of ice nucleating particles by over 100 times.
A new study suggests that while winter cover crops can reduce nitrogen pollution by up to 30%, their effectiveness will decrease under future climate scenarios. Illinois' corn yields are expected to suffer more than soybean yields, especially in southern regions, as warmer temperatures and changing rainfall patterns impact crop growth.
A study of maize hybrid varieties over 81 years found that while maize's tolerance to moderate heat stress has improved, its tolerance to severe heat stress has decreased. This shift in tolerance could have significant implications for climate change's impact on agriculture.
For over a billion years, the sun's atmospheric tide countered the moon's gravitational pull, keeping Earth's rotational rate steady and day length at 19.5 hours. This balance was disrupted by climate change, resulting in our current 24-hour day stretching to over 60 hours if not for the pause.
A University of California, Riverside-led team found that anthropogenic aerosol-driven changes in ocean circulation and interbasin heat transport are more effective in altering oceanic heat distribution than those driven by globally increasing greenhouse gases. This advance in understanding will help develop climate mitigation strategies.
Researchers analyzed satellite data from 1967 to 2021, finding nearly twice as many grids with declining snow cover as advancing ones. Snow presence is decreasing in Arctic and southern latitudes, while some areas like Eastern Canada see an increase.
A study using state-of-the-art climate models found that two-thirds of the selected CMIP6 models showed positive correlations between Asian-Pacific Oscillation (APO) and Southeast China precipitation, consistent with observations. The best-performing model ensemble (BMME) simulated the APO-associated precipitation and atmospheric anoma...
A study by the University of Helsinki found that oxidized organic molecules from Amazon rainforests contribute to the formation of aerosol particles in the tropical free troposphere. These molecules, primarily composed of isoprene, can nucleate or condense on nanoparticles, impacting cloud formation and global climate.
A new computer model forecasts yield for four key crops in the southeastern US, drawing on climate, groundwater, and agricultural data. The tool helps farmers and water resource managers identify ways to maximize crop yields while efficiently utilizing water and energy.
Researchers use artificial intelligence to predict where and why landslides occur, pinpointing key variables contributing to the earth's slip. Their new method improves accuracy and interpretability, making it more valuable for protecting lives and property.
A team of researchers at UC Irvine has developed a freely available computer model to estimate the economic costs of hurricanes and typhoons. The model combines data from climate change science and household vulnerability information, providing return periods of asset losses and helping countries better prepare for these disasters.
A new statistical learning approach developed by an international team has narrowed the range of likely future stratospheric water vapour amounts, ruling out extreme scenarios. This reduces uncertainty in climate change and its impact on the ozone layer's recovery.
Researchers found that volcanic eruptions' impact on climate is being underestimated by a factor of two to four in standard climate projections. Small-magnitude eruptions are responsible for as much as half of all sulphur gases emitted, with a significant collective effect.
A new IIASA-led study investigated the potential of engineered Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies, such as Direct Air Capture of CO2 (DACCS), to help bridge the gap between current emissions reductions and ambitious climate goals. The study found that novel CDR can keep pre-Paris climate targets within reach when accounting for ...
Research from Cornell University estimates that wildfire smoke can cause between 4,000 and 9,000 premature deaths and cost between $36 to $82 billion per year in the United States. Metropolitan regions near fire sources are likely to experience a large health burden and economic loss.
A recent study analyzed over 200 previous studies to assess the impact of irrigation on regional climates and environments. The researchers found that while irrigation supplies 40% of the world's food, it also has significant effects on regional climates and environments, with some areas being already unsustainable or verging on scarcity.
The article discusses the growing challenge of food security in Africa, particularly with regards to rice production and consumption. The research reveals that socioeconomic developments have a more substantial influence on rice availability than gradual climate change, but climatic anomalies pose a significant threat to stability. Div...
The UK is investing £11 million to improve forecast accuracy for extreme weather events like storms, floods and droughts. Scientists are focusing on atmospheric turbulence to create more detailed models.
A new study predicts Arctic sea ice will vanish by the 2030s if greenhouse gas emissions continue unchecked. The research, published in Nature Communications, analyzes 41 years of data and confirms human activities as the primary cause of Arctic sea ice decline.
Researchers develop new approach to quantify respiration and its temperature sensitivity in terrestrial ecosystems. Their findings suggest lower temperature sensitivities than previously thought, but caution that natural components alone cannot mitigate climate change.
A new study reveals that human activities such as groundwater withdrawal have shifted the Earth's rotational pole nearly a meter over two decades. This shift is caused by the redistribution of mass due to water movement, with implications for climate change and sea level rise.
Researchers found that controlled burns in key areas of northern California, western Oregon, and eastern Washington could drastically reduce wildfire smoke exposure throughout the entire western U.S. This is due to prevailing winds carrying smoke across the continent and abundant dense vegetation fueling smokey fires.
A team of researchers from Syracuse University and Texas A&M University applied a machine learning model to explore the sources of salinization and alkalinization in U.S. watersheds. The study found that human activities, such as road salt application, were major contributors to salinity, while natural processes dominated alkalinity.
The CAETÊ algorithm projects the future of vegetation in the Amazon, presenting scenarios for transformation driven by climate change. It shows that a drier climate could increase biodiversity but lower carbon storage, with carbon absorption dropping between 57.48% and 57.75% compared to regular climate conditions.
A new study finds coral disease is spreading globally, tripling over the past 25 years to 9.92%, and predicts 76.8% of reefs will be diseased by 2100 if temperatures continue to rise. Coral reefs support a quarter of the world's fish and are crucial for coastal communities.
Scientists at Rice University found a natural 150-day cycle in the north-south oscillation of atmospheric pressure patterns, influencing hemispheric-scale precipitation and ocean surface wind stress. This discovery challenges conventional wisdom about atmospheric organization and has implications for climate modeling.
Researchers found that warming conditions can shift mixotrophic microbes from carbon sinks to carbon emitters, potentially accelerating warming and creating a positive feedback loop. These tiny microbes, abundant in freshwater and marine environments, could act as early warning signals for climate change tipping points.
Researchers have created a detailed map of the geology beneath Thwaites Glacier in West Antarctica, showing that only about a fifth of the ground is sedimentary rock. This finding could affect how the glacier behaves as it retreats due to climate change, with potential implications for ice flow and loss from other glaciers.
A new Dartmouth study projects a 52% increase in extreme precipitation events in the Northeast by the end of the century. The region is expected to experience more frequent heavy rainfall events, with winter and spring contributing most to this projected increase.
Researchers at the University of Oklahoma predict that global flash droughts will increase globally, with the largest increases projected across North America and Europe. The study finds that flash drought risk over cropland is expected to increase by 1.5 times in North America and 1.7 times in Europe by 2100.
Researchers create an AI-based approach to predict precipitation intensity and variability, addressing the missing piece of cloud organization in traditional climate models. The new algorithm improves precipitation predictions, including extreme events, and enables better projections of future changes in the water cycle.
The FAO's AquaCrop model has been updated to simulate alfalfa yield with precision, offering valid predictions for different climates and zones. The new feature was developed by the University of Córdoba and IAS-CSIC, using data from Belgium, Turkey, and Canada.
A new study reveals that microorganisms can adapt to temperature changes and even benefit from them. The organisms differ in their sensitivity to temperature changes, with bacteria being more sensitive than fungi. This adaptation allows them to store carbon in soil, slowing down global warming.
New research shows that the Montreal Protocol is delaying the first ice-free Arctic summer by up to 15 years. The treaty's regulation of ozone-depleting substances has slowed global warming and preserved the ozone layer.
A new AI-enabled forecasting model can predict ENSO events for up to 22 months, overcoming the limitations of previous models. The Spatio-Temporal Information Extraction and Fusion (STIEF) model uses deep learning to extract space and time features and fuse them together, providing a more accurate prediction length.
A University of Leicester-led study suggests that ancient lakes existed in South Africa's interior during the last Ice Age, supporting hunter-gatherer communities. The research provides new insights into human migration patterns and ecosystem sensitivity to global climate change.
A new study by Penn State researchers found that some climate mitigation strategies could result in harmful health impacts in specific areas, particularly if significant land use changes are required for bioenergy production. This could lead to worsened respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, resulting in premature deaths.
A new study found that climate change is causing the hottest days in North-West Europe to warm at double the rate of average summer days. The difference in trends is most pronounced for England, Wales, and Northern France.
A new study found that early human ancestors adapted to diverse food resources and mosaic landscapes, which increased their resilience to climate changes. The researchers analyzed over 3,000 fossil specimens and archeological sites, revealing a preference for biomes with high plant and animal diversity.
The study improves the accuracy of black carbon's refractive index, revealing it may contribute up to 16% to atmospheric warming, affecting climate models. The method developed can be applied to other particles in the atmosphere and ocean.
The study examines the impact of surface type on Arctic amplification, finding that ice-retreat regions experience the strongest warming and largest seasonal contrast. The seasonal energy transfer mechanism and changes in effective thermal inertia also contribute to the seasonality of AA.
A team from the University of Illinois has modeled improving photosynthesis through enzyme modification and simulated soybean growth with realistic climate conditions. The study found that seasonal climate conditions impact the effectiveness of improving photosynthesis to increase soybean yield.
Climate change could cause a 20-40% reduction in twilight zone life by the end of the century. The study predicts that life in the twilight zone could be severely depleted within 150 years, with no recovery for thousands of years.
A new model predicts that climate change will lead to longer transmission seasons for Zika and dengue diseases in Brazil. The study found that warming temperatures could increase the basic reproduction number (R0) of Zika by up to 2.7, leading to more frequent epidemics.
A new study assesses the Amazon's response to drought, identifying the regions most vulnerable to climate change. Trees in the western and southern parts of the forest are at high risk due to rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns.
A team of Chinese scientists developed high-resolution Earth system models incorporating clouds and ocean submesoscale eddies, capturing major weather-climate extremes. The models simulate cross-scale interactions and provide new insights into weather-climate mechanisms.
A study by the University of Helsinki identifies nature-based solutions that work best as carbon sinks and for biodiversity conservation in urban areas. Community engagement is vital to ensure acceptable plans, according to the researchers.
A new study highlights regions such as Afghanistan, Papua New Guinea, and Central America, which are under-prepared for scorching temperatures. The research emphasizes the need for policy makers in hotspot regions to consider action plans to reduce heat-related deaths and harms.
Researchers combine theory and observation to understand damselfly responses to warming temperatures, discovering a more realistic predator-prey simulation model. This work provides groundwork for understanding how other species will adapt to a warmer world, particularly species like mosquitoes.
A new study reveals that Indian farmers have adapted to climate change by changing management practices and using hardier crop varieties. However, the impact of climate change on crop yields varies across crops and regions, with some areas experiencing greater benefits than others.
Researchers identify critical drought thresholds that impact vegetation growth and nonlinear responses to soil moisture stress. The study reveals two distinct phases of vegetation response, with a well-defined threshold beyond which vegetation becomes vulnerable to drought intensification.
A study by Ohio State University researchers found Steenstrup Glacier in Greenland is retreating at an unprecedented rate, with a 5-mile retreat and quadrupled velocity between 2018 and 2021. The glacier's rapid change reveals that even long-term stable glaciers are susceptible to sudden and rapid retreat due to warming waters.
Researchers established quantitative relationships between coals and evapoerites with temperature and precipitation during the Phanerozoic. Coals formed predominantly in equatorial regions, while evaporites formed in subtropical dry zones.
This study uses the EDCFM method to downscale and bias-correct six CMIP6 GCMs for China's hydrological applications. The results indicate that SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios will bring increased volatility in precipitation, evapotranspiration, and runoff. Multi-year average annual values are projected to increase under these scenarios.
A new Dartmouth study examines how changes in precipitation and temperature due to global warming affect streamflow and flooding in the Northeast. The research finds that a warmer climate will lead to increased streamflow and higher flood risk, particularly if soils become wetter and more prone to heavy rainfall events.
Research finds extreme precipitation days will become more frequent, with up to 20-30% increase in moisture release. The LOCA2 climate projections cover the lower 48 US states, southern Canada, and northern Mexico, providing granular-level information for local planners.
A recent study found that the way volcanic eruptions are represented in climate models can degrade their accuracy in predicting decadal variations in sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific. These variations have significant impacts on global precipitation and severe weather patterns.