Articles tagged with Climate Modeling
Researchers at Stanford have found that the Wilkes Subglacial Basin in East Antarctica could be closer to runaway melting than previously thought. The study suggests that this region, which holds enough ice to raise global sea levels by over 10 feet, may be vulnerable to irreversible melting if warming seawater gets under the ice sheet.
A new study warns that climate change could reduce global wheat production by 13% by 2050 due to the spread of the fungal disease wheat blast. The affected regions will include South America, southern Africa and Asia, where up to 75% of total wheat acreage could be at risk.
A recent study published in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science reveals that changes in subtropical and midlatitude eddy activity control the variation of the Hadley cell edge latitude. The researchers analyzed 41 years of data and found associations with El Niño, La Niña, and the Arctic oscillation.
A new study from the University of Copenhagen reveals that Greenland consumes more methane than it releases, with dry landscapes absorbing over 65,000 tons annually. The study's findings contribute significantly to climate models and provide insights into the optimal soil conditions for methane uptake in the Arctic.
A new study by UMass Amherst and the Wildlife Conservation Society finds that climate change disproportionately affects older African elephants, who will have decreased chances of survival. This can lead to a ripple effect on their ecosystems and cultures, highlighting the need for coordinated management strategies at all levels.
Researchers found that injecting aerosols into the stratosphere can reduce ice sheet loss by up to 37.6 mm sea-level rise, slowing global warming's effects. However, geoengineering addresses only symptoms, not root causes, and may delay necessary changes.
A new commentary highlights that shifting focus from energy supply to consumption can effectively reduce carbon emissions and improve wellbeing. Reducing energy demand could save households and businesses money, create employment, and reduce emissions, while also limiting global warming in line with Paris Agreement targets.
Researchers found that compact, faster-moving storms are more susceptible to global warming's effects, while larger, slower-moving typhoons are more resilient. This discovery could lead to improved methods for projecting typhoon strength under warming conditions.
A new compound flooding model predicts that New York City will experience historic and devastating floods every 30 years by the end of this century, a fivefold increase from the present climate. The tool helps city planners prepare and protect against future disasters by providing detailed flood forecasts.
Researchers found that small electric aircraft can have a notably lower climate impact – up to 60 percent less – and other types of environmental impacts than equivalent fossil-fuelled aircraft. The study also highlights the need for longer battery lifetimes and improved energy storage capacity to minimize mineral resource scarcity.
Researchers at Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization developed a precision apparatus to observe non-spherical particles settling in air. They found that particles tend to oscillate as they settle, which could impact collision rates, travel distance, and solar radiation interaction.
Most Earth System Models lack accurate representation of permafrost dynamics, a crucial factor in future climate projections. Funding constraints and limited resources are preventing model development from capturing the full scope of complex permafrost processes.
Researchers found that more extreme and frequent droughts could lead to a nearly five-fold increase in total area burned, from 231 sq mi in 2016 to over 17,000 sq mi by 2100. Fires would also become more frequent, returning to certain forest points every five years.
A new study found that atmospheric moisture has not increased as expected over arid and semi-arid regions despite climate warming. This could exacerbate future wildfires and ecosystem stress in these areas.
A new AI model has improved permafrost mapping by creating high-resolution maps of Arctic thawing, providing a tool for protecting infrastructure. The model achieved 83% accuracy in matching field data with its predictions, outperforming the widely used pan-arctic model.
A new study reveals that climate change is silently eroding the ocean's ability to provide fish by reducing plankton levels, leading to significant drops in fish stocks. The research found that even small declines in phytoplankton can result in much bigger drops in fish populations due to an amplifying mechanism within the food web.
The Caatinga's ecosystem is projected to lose up to 87% of its mammal species and 70% of plant assemblages due to climate change. This will result in a loss of ecological functions, such as seed dispersal, and make the ecosystem less resilient.
Researchers discovered frequent aerosol particle formation events in Siberia's West Siberian taiga during heatwave conditions. This may have a mitigating cooling effect on the climate. The study aims to inform decision-making and improve understanding of forest-atmosphere interactions.
A new Dartmouth study finds that seasonal snowpacks have shrunk significantly over the past 40 years due to human-driven climate change. The sharpest global warming-related reductions are in the Southwestern and Northeastern United States, as well as in Central and Eastern Europe.
Researchers found that the Asian summer monsoon's strengthening played a key role in Homo sapiens' dispersal from Africa to East Asia during the last interglacial period. The study integrated paleoanthropological data with high-resolution reconstructions of the monsoon, suggesting a link between climate change and human migration.
IIASA researchers propose a conceptual framework to address justice in climate science, synthesizing distributional, procedural, corrective, recognitional, and transitional justice. The framework aims to enhance interdisciplinary understanding and promote awareness of justice considerations in climate policy.
An international study classifies groundwater as a keystone ecosystem, emphasizing its critical role in sustaining both humanity and biodiversity. The researchers propose eight key themes for improved groundwater conservation to reduce biodiversity loss and counterbalance climate change.
Research using a high-resolution climate model found that global warming amplifies the strength of typhoons in East Asia, leading to increased intense rainfall and powerful storms. The study suggests that continued escalation of global warming will result in stronger typhoons and more extensive occurrences of extreme precipitation events.
The number of people affected by tropical cyclones has nearly doubled from 560 million in 2002 to 792 million in 2019, according to a new study. The age distribution of those exposed has shifted towards older adults, while socioeconomically deprived populations are more likely to be exposed.
Researchers Dr. Maisa Rojas and Marco Billi propose a new model of governance to address climate change in Chile, prioritizing social justice and ecological order. This approach aims to mitigate the effects of climate change on vulnerable groups and promote transformative change.
New ASU research models the benefits of combining heat adaptation strategies with mitigation efforts to lessen extreme heat exposure in major US cities. The study finds that Northeast and Midwest regions can expect greater benefits, while Sun Belt cities face limited reductions.
Researchers found that ponderosa pine trees suffer from warming, contradicting the space-for-time substitution method. Climate change is happening faster than trees can adapt, putting them at risk of extinction.
Researchers used a fiber optic cable to study the Arctic seafloor's seismic structure and temperature. They identified areas with large amounts of ice and detected changes in temperature over seasons, which will help understand global climate change.
Researchers at Ohio State University are testing the use of Synthetic Aperture Radar to help with wildfire detection and improve first responders' ability to predict and respond to deadly forest fires. The new tool has potential for tracking wildfires from start to finish, monitoring soil moisture, and discerning flame-prone areas.
Researchers developed a new solver algorithm for the MPAS-Ocean ocean circulation model, reducing run time by 45% and enabling semi-implicit stability. This allows for faster climate predictions and energy efficiency, as well as reduced computational power consumption.
Scientists at Ohio State University discovered that tropical ice cores can provide accurate measurements of surface global mean temperature. The study found that the temperature in the middle and upper troposphere cooled by 7.35 degrees Celsius during the Earth's glacial period, shedding light on new theories about climate dynamics.
The researchers developed an AI-based generative neural network called GAN that can generate highly resolved radar precipitation films from coarsely resolved maps. This higher resolution is required to better forecast heavy local precipitation and the resulting natural disasters in future.
Researchers from the University of Córdoba used machine learning models to predict reference evapotranspiration in Southern Spain until 2100. The projections indicate a significant increase in water needs, with air temperature being the key factor in calculating this parameter.
New data analysis reveals that regional temperature patterns are crucial for evaluating climate models, with warmer temperatures in the North Atlantic and a cooler North Atlantic found to be more accurate. This approach provides better insights into the spatial impact of climate change and its effects on ecosystems and human societies.
The project aims to create a digital twin of the world's wetlands using satellite data, mathematical models, and artificial intelligence to monitor and reduce methane emissions. Dr Robert Parker from the University of Leicester will lead the project as one of 75 new Future Leaders Fellows.
A new study by the University of Miami Rosenstiel School found that carbon dioxide becomes more potent as climate changes, increasing its heat-trapping effect. This means that future CO2 increases will provide a more potent warming effect on climate than past increases.
A new study explores the future limits of survival and livability in extreme heat conditions, finding that current estimates may not accurately represent impacts on human health. The research provides a range of safe temperatures based on factors like humidity, age, activity level, and sun exposure.
Researchers investigating aerosol pollution's impact on climate change will use NOAA's SPEAR model to project how future climate hazards could be affected by different emission scenarios. The study seeks to characterize the uncertainty of aerosol emissions and their influence on climate change.
Researchers develop a mathematical model that analyzes the future survival of plants in a changing climate by studying how far wind can carry seeds. The model provides fast and reliable predictions of seed movement, considering factors like seed type, plant height, and wind speed.
Native Americans in Oklahoma have approximately five times increased risk of heavy rainfall, with two-year floods projected to be 632.6% higher than the general population. The study aims to help Native American leaders develop disaster risk reduction plans and protect vulnerable communities.
Researchers evaluated global water models using new approach, finding inconsistencies in climate regions and water extremes, with implications for agriculture and groundwater use. The study highlights the need for improved model evaluation methods to inform decision makers and improve model development.
Estimates of current land-based emissions vary between scientific models and national greenhouse gas inventories, with a difference of 4-7 gigatons CO2. Countries need to achieve more ambitious climate action when comparing their national starting points with global models.
Researchers developed a simple linear formula to capture aerosol particles' hygroscopicity, which affects cloud formation and climate. The study used global measurements and model calculations, revealing that organic and inorganic materials determine aerosol hygroscopicity.
Researchers found that a more complex climate model projects stronger and sustained carbon uptake by plants until the end of the 21st century. This could lead to a larger impact on mitigating climate change through nature-based solutions like reforestation.
A recent study highlights the urgent need to address uncertainties in tropical cyclone projections due to climate change. The research emphasizes the importance of improving predictive capabilities to refine climate adaptation strategies and safeguard vulnerable coastal regions.
A research team employed deep learning techniques to scrutinize dam operation patterns, achieving remarkable accuracy in forecasting dam water levels. The study demonstrates the potential of an artificial intelligence model trained on extensive big data to surpass conventional physical models.
ECOTIP presented recommendations to enhance biodiversity monitoring in Greenlandic fisheries, focusing on data analysis and animal tissue samples. The recommendations aim to improve biodiversity monitoring in the Arctic region.
Researchers developed a neural network called Senseiver that can reconstruct large systems from small amounts of sensor data using low-powered edge computing. The model has broad applications across industries, including climate modeling, self-driving cars, and medical monitoring.
A new study maps uncertainty in current climate modeling and proposes a framework to better predict future global warming risk. International experts identify 26 distinct processes that could drive significant warming after net zero.
Research by Dominik Stolzenburg reveals that aerosols from volatile organic substances can cluster together to form condensation nuclei for water vapor. This process affects cloud density and global warming, potentially offsetting the effect of CO2 increases on climate change.
A new modelling study led by UCL researchers finds that faster Arctic warming will breach the global 1.5C and 2C temperature thresholds five and eight years earlier than expected. This accelerated warming adds substantial uncertainty to climate forecasts, highlighting the need for more extensive monitoring of temperatures in the region.
A new study reveals critical gaps in current plant demographic research, highlighting the need for more diverse data on tropical plant species. Climate models are only as good as the data they're based on, and current biases could lead to inaccurate predictions of how plants will respond to changing climate conditions.
A UNIGE team has developed a super-model to simulate the spread of three green technologies in Swiss municipalities by 2050. The results show that Switzerland is unlikely to achieve zero net carbon emissions by 2050 without significant policy changes, highlighting the need for increased efforts and updated policies.
Researchers found that climate models are accurate at simulating global temperature trends but struggle to capture regional variations, particularly over long periods. This disparity has significant implications for planning and implementing climate adaptation measures.
A new land change model simulates interactions between urban growth, increased flooding, and human adaptation, offering deeper insights into adaptive capacities and identifying communities with limited resources. The model reduces projected developed land exposed to flooding by 5-24% depending on flood hazard zone.
Researchers used a well-tested climate model to depict changes in natural climate variability during the last peak glacial period. The study found that internal mechanisms, such as variations in salinity and temperature, drove the multi-centennial climate variability, resulting in fluctuations in sea ice extent and Greenland temperatures.
A new research project will explore the potential for low-lying coral atoll islands to survive the impact of rising sea levels, contradicting previous forecasts. The five-year £2.8m ARISE project will conduct extensive field tests and laboratory experiments in the Maldives and Pacific.
A team of researchers at MIT has discovered a process where light can directly cause evaporation without heat, exceeding the thermal limit. This phenomenon could explain natural phenomena like fog and clouds, and enable new approaches to desalination.
The National Science Foundation has awarded $1.6 million to Emory University researchers to develop predictive models for farmers to adapt to climate change in Georgia, Iowa and Ohio. The project aims to create a public online tool to explore possible futures of agriculture at regional and state levels.
A new study finds that the global carbon budget for keeping warming below 1.5°C will be exhausted by 2029 if current emissions continue, committing the world to this level of warming. The remaining budget has approximately halved since 2020 due to increased greenhouse gas emissions.