Research modeling the climate and its extremes. Covers climate extremes, ocean-dipole types, weather forecasting, and AI ecosystem monitoring.
Researchers analyzed four core climate tipping elements, including the Greenland Ice Sheet and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, to determine the risks of destabilization due to overshooting 1.5°C. Achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions is crucial to limit tipping risks.
Researchers from MARUM and the National Oceanography Centre analyzed sensor data over four years to determine seafloor currents in deep waters. The study found that currents sped up, slowed down, reversed direction, and were steered by seafloor relief, contradicting previous steady models.
Climate change is expected to shift the distribution of eight commercially important marine fish and invertebrate species northwards due to warmer water temperatures and loss of sea ice habitat. This could lead to changes in the abundance and economic viability of fisheries, with some species potentially benefiting while others decline.
A new mapping tool from North Carolina State University uses machine learning and open-source satellite imagery to model flooding in urban environments. The model creates maps that predict urban area flooding, helping officials make informed choices about flood resiliency and prevention resources.
Researchers introduce ghost channels and cycles to understand transient behaviors in complex systems like climate processes or neuronal networks. This new approach challenges traditional concepts based on stable or unstable equilibria, potentially helping predict tipping cascades and ecosystem degradation.
A new study confirms that human-induced climate change is making rainfall patterns more volatile globally, with increased variability observed since the 1900s in 75% of land areas studied. The researchers found daily rainfall variability to have increased by 1.2% per decade.
Researchers found that turbulent movements of air in clouds play a key role in the growth of droplets and initiation of rain. Simulations with turbulence showed rain formed around 20 minutes earlier and with seven times more rainwater than simulations without turbulence.
Washington University researchers have made new measurements of black carbon in pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) clouds, which are extremely hot and can linger for months. The study found that these particles absorb visible sunlight two times as much as those from smaller fires and urban sources.
Researchers have found that the Southern Ocean absorbs 25% more carbon dioxide than previously estimated. The new study used direct measurements to assess existing flux products in the Southern Ocean.
A study by Stanford University researchers reveals a previously unknown relationship between Sahara dust plumes and hurricane rainfall. Thicker dust plumes can lead to heavier rainfall, while thinner ones may suppress hurricane formation over the ocean.
This study demonstrates the effectiveness of combining AI and UAV imagery for precision agriculture, showcasing AlexNet's superior performance in crop classification. The research highlights the importance of early stopping techniques to prevent overfitting, suggesting further optimization for broader applications.
The University of Maryland has been awarded a five-year, $388 million cooperative funding agreement with NOAA to conduct collaborative research in Earth system science. The Cooperative Institute for Satellite Earth System Studies (CISESS) will continue its national leadership in this field.
Research finds climate change is slowing down Earth's rotation by a few milliseconds, with implications for navigation in space. The study also reveals polar motion changes caused by melting ice sheets and internal movements of the Earth's core.
A team led by UC Irvine researchers found that a commonly used climate model overestimates the reflectivity of ice, leading to inaccurate predictions of melting rates. With the new update, the Greenland Ice Sheet is melting at a rate of about six gigatons more than in older models.
A recent study predicts that lakes worldwide will experience unprecedented surface and subsurface warming, leading to severe disruptions in ecosystems. Tropical lakes are expected to be the first to emerge from natural temperature bounds, while high-latitude lakes may shield their subsurface layers from surface warming.
A team from the University of Illinois has developed a modeling framework connecting enzyme activity related to photosynthesis to yield. This breakthrough model ties dynamic photosynthetic pathways directly to crop growth for the first time.
A recent analysis suggests that the optimal fingerprinting method (OFM) can be improved to enhance its usefulness and accuracy in assessing climate tipping points. The study highlights the limitations of current methods and proposes a new approach that combines theoretical and dynamical reasoning.
Weaker ocean circulation may lead to increased carbon dioxide buildup in the atmosphere due to a previously uncharacterized feedback loop involving iron, upwelling nutrients, and ligands. The study challenges current thinking on the ocean's role in storing carbon.
A new study led by Okayama University investigates the influence of precipitation radiative effects (REP) on climate models. It found that REP affects global and regional hydrological cycles, altering atmospheric circulation and surface temperatures, particularly in polar regions.
A new study finds that cool roofs are the most effective way to cool cities like London, with a potential reduction of 1.2-2 degrees C in outdoor temperatures. In contrast, green roofs and street-level vegetation have negligible net cooling effects.
Researchers from Kyushu University found that early-onset El Niño leads to warm winters in East Asia due to anomalous warming of the tropical Indian Ocean. Late-onset El Niño, on the other hand, results in colder winters. This study aimed to improve climate modeling and prediction during El Niño events.
A recent study by Maynooth University has found that extreme temperatures in Ireland have increased significantly over the past few decades. The research reveals that temperature events of 33 degrees Celsius have become a regular occurrence, with some areas experiencing them every 9 years, up from once every 180 years in 1942.
Researchers study droughts, wildfires, and precipitation changes across the US Southeast and globally. The Great Salt Lake's drying exacerbates regional droughts, while a Maui wildfire is linked to atmospheric patterns.
Researchers used AI to map slush on Antarctic ice shelves and found that 57% of all meltwater is held in slush, with a significant impact on ice shelf stability and sea level rise. This discovery could lead to more accurate predictions of ice sheet melting and collapse.
Researchers found that 240 Chinese cities benefit from carbon mitigation efforts of other cities, with weak beneficiaries having stronger connections to upstream heavy industry cities. Effective emission reduction requires policies addressing distinct city challenges and opportunities.
A study by Dan Chavas and his team found that the rough texture of the land surface in South America may prevent tornadoes from forming, while a smoother ocean surface in North America enhances their frequency. This challenges established wisdom about the role of the Gulf of Mexico in tornado formation.
Forecaster.health predicts temperature-related mortality risks for different population subgroups based on sex and age. The system issues color-coded warnings for 580 European regions, considering social determinants of vulnerability.
Researchers at University of Cambridge discovered that underwater turbulence around seamounts significantly influences ocean mixing, contributing to a third of global ocean mixing. This finding has implications for climate models used in policymaking, potentially improving forecasts of the ocean's response to global warming.
A new conceptual model, XRO, significantly improves predictive skill of ENSO events at over one year in advance, offering a transparent view into the mechanisms of equatorial Pacific recharge-discharge physics. This improves conventional climate model forecasting and provides robust quantification of extratropical Pacific, tropical Ind...
Researchers from the Mann Research Group found strong path dependence in Plio-Pleistocene glaciations, driven by a gradual decrease in regolith and volcanic outgassing. The study suggests that carbon dioxide levels determine the onset of the Mid-Pleistocene Transition, and that it's not too late to act to prevent ice sheet collapse.
Scientists at British Antarctic Survey have identified a new tipping point in Antarctic ice sheet melting due to ocean water intrusion. This process, currently not included in models, could lead to significant underestimates of sea level rise and accelerated ice sheet melting.
A new study suggests that human activities may actually reduce the severity of droughts in certain regions. Climate model simulations indicate that aerosols and greenhouse gases produced by human activities have opposite effects on atmospheric chemical composition and precipitation mechanisms. This research challenges previous conclusi...
A new IIASA-led study introduces a dynamic systems approach to understanding social tipping points, which include looking at interconnected feedback mechanisms and interactions across different systems and scales. Small actions can lead to significant changes that ripple through social and economic systems.
A recent study found that cloud cover changes more during the day than at night on a global scale, leading to increased greenhouse effect and amplified global warming. The asymmetry in cloud cover is attributed to stability in the lower troposphere due to rising greenhouse gas concentrations.
A new model developed by researchers at the University of São Paulo combines physical parameters and machine learning to predict storm tides. The model uses physics-informed machine learning, which harmonizes physical models with measured data to produce more precise forecasts.
A new study reveals that climate models overestimate the storage time of carbon in plants, meaning it is released back into the atmosphere sooner than predicted. This has implications for nature-based carbon removal projects and our understanding of the role of nature in mitigating climate change.
Researchers used a weather model to pinpoint the source of wintertime precipitation in Arizona, finding it comes from a central Pacific moisture source rather than El Niño/La Niña events. The study's findings could improve seasonal precipitation forecasts for the region and potentially other areas globally.
Researchers used simulations to model the erosion of Titan's shorelines, finding that waves are the most likely explanation for the moon's lakes and seas. The team found that wave activity could have shaped the coastlines of lakes and seas on Titan.
A new model suggests that strong policies can backfire in polarized societies if people perceive low risk, leading to a rebound in fossil fuel use. In highly polarized situations, social interactions reinforce dominant norms, making it harder for subsequent transitions to occur.
A new study emphasizes the need to balance water conservation with food security, finding that ending groundwater depletion would lead to significant declines in food production, particularly for rice and wheat. The study warns that such efforts could push up international prices, making food less affordable for the poor.
Researchers warn that Hudson Bay's growing ice-free period may reduce polar bear survival rates and reproductive success, threatening their population. If global warming exceeds 2.1 degrees Celsius, the ice-free period could extend beyond the bears' safe limit, leading to reduced survival rates.
A UC Riverside study shows that extreme heat in Earth's past caused a decline in the exchange of waters from the surface to the deep ocean, which redistributes heat around the globe. This system has been crucial for regulating Earth's climate and removing anthropogenic carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
Texas A&M University researchers have developed a 3D visualization technology to identify potential outcomes of hurricane flooding before it occurs. This allows for improved safety and reduced damage costs. The technology can also model specific buildings, accounting for basements, back entrances, and windows.
A new study finds that climate change will increase ozone pollution in the US by 2050, with potentially millions more people exposed to dangerously high levels. The study's findings suggest that current emissions reductions efforts may be less effective in meeting air quality standards.
A new study by Dana-Farber Cancer Institute researchers found that telehealth can significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions associated with cancer care. By analyzing data from a regional cancer center, the team calculated that nationwide, cancer care utilizing telehealth and local care would generate 33.1% less greenhouse gas emiss...
A computer model simulates dynamics of barrier island systems over two centuries, showing how human efforts to protect communities affect natural processes. The study finds that successful storm prevention strategies lead to less resilient barriers in the long term.
A study by MIT scientists found that microscopic defects in the ice shape how massive glaciers flow, leading to revised predictions of future sea-level rise. The researchers developed a model to estimate an icy region's sensitivity to stress, directly relating it to its likelihood of flowing.
Five global projects will advance understanding of ocean systems in a changing climate through improved data and modeling. The Ocean Biogeochemistry Virtual Institute will refine ocean carbon cycling and ecosystem resilience research.
Arctic sea ice is expected to lose mass in the coming decade due to dominant natural climate patterns. Exposure to extreme temperatures, particularly heat, may lead to adverse birth outcomes in China. Researchers also found that ocean warming intensifies typhoons, but moderation comes from atmospheric temperature and humidity changes.
Researchers identified a global climate indicator, Indian Ocean basin-wide index, that can improve predictions of dengue outbreaks several months in advance. This could facilitate efforts to tackle the rising infection threatening half the world's population.
A modelling study found substantial reductions in atmospheric aerosols and cloud droplet number density after the IMO 2020 regulation reduced sulphur content in shipping fuel. This led to an estimated 80% increase in Earth's heat energy retained, equivalent to a significant radiative warming effect.
Scientists have found that microorganisms in the Arctic permafrost can break down polyphenols, previously thought to be untouchable, producing more greenhouse gas emissions. This new discovery has implications for understanding the role of soil microbes in climate change.
A new study by Virginia Tech researchers reveals that agricultural demand for water is significantly higher than cities, with crops used for feeding cattle being the largest consumers. The researchers also found that reservoir levels are dropping due to overuse and climate change, highlighting the need for efficient water use strategies.
The study presents a comprehensive physical explanation for the sun's activity cycles, attributing them to Rossby waves mediated by planetary tidal influences. This model successfully explains the Schwabe cycle and other solar cycles, providing strong evidence for the planetary hypothesis.
Researchers studied surface energy flux patterns on Mount Everest's north and south slopes to understand land-atmosphere interactions. The study found differences in sensible and latent heat fluxes between the two slopes, with varying effects of altitude and vegetation.
The global clean water crisis is projected to intensify by the end of the century, affecting 66% of the population in areas with lack of clean water for at least a month. Climate change and socioeconomic developments drive water scarcity, particularly in developing countries.
Researchers at the University of Bonn improved 3D ocean circulation models using supercomputing resources to analyze ocean tide changes and their impact on coastal regions. The study found that a warming ocean surface enhances baroclinic tides, leading to significant energy transfer.
A study published by the Institute of Atmospheric Physics predicts significant economic impacts on provinces like Hunan, Jiangxi, and Guangdong due to increased heavy precipitation and droughts. The region's GDP is expected to be hardest hit under certain climate change scenarios, emphasizing the need for adaptation strategies.
A recent study using large climate models found that record-breaking low Antarctic sea ice in 2023 was extremely unlikely without climate change. The research suggests strong climate change made the event four times more likely, with implications for local and global weather patterns.
A new study finds that the US Drought Monitor is not keeping pace with climate change, leading to frequent severe droughts being classified as rare. The consequences are dire, with some regions spending more time in extreme drought conditions than federal guidelines allow, potentially leaving them without adequate aid.