Articles tagged with Climate Modeling
A new study reveals that the southern boreal forests' ability to recover from climate shocks has significantly decreased over time, threatening Arctic carbon storage. The resilience of many plant communities in these regions is thought to have increased in most of the Arctic tundra, but this may not be sustainable in the long term.
New research led by energy systems modelers at Princeton University demonstrates that retiring coal plants based on minimizing costs could leave other climate and equity benefits on the table. Retiring half of Pennsylvania's coal plants under a climate- or equity-focused strategy could reduce carbon emissions, air pollution, and deaths...
Researchers conducted live field experiments to better understand the physics of firebrands and their impact on wildfires. They found that ember creation is highly intermittent, occurring in large bursts that can hurl fire-starting debris far from the source.
A new study applies modern portfolio theory to conserve the coquí llanero frog by diversifying investments and managing risk under future climate uncertainty. The analysis suggests that relying on existing protected areas may not be enough to mitigate climate risks, and investing in additional habitats could be worth the cost.
A recent study found that climate factors play a more dominant role in determining wood density for tree species than soil characteristics, while both factors equally influence shrub species. The research provides new insights into vegetation responses to environmental factors, with implications for improving ecosystem predictions.
A new synthesis of regional climate data highlights the need for climate adaptation policy based on the latest regional climate science. Emerging signals of climate change are expected to significantly alter monsoon intensity, leading to substantial societal impacts in tropical and subtropical regions.
The University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign Institute for Sustainability, Energy, and Environment will receive funding to improve mitigation estimates for agricultural management practices. The funding will support the work of researchers in advancing the understanding of conservation practices on greenhouse gas fluxes.
A new study led by University of Illinois Chicago scientist Akintomide Akinsanola found that most Americans can expect wetter winters in the future due to global warming. Winter precipitation and extreme weather events are expected to increase across most of the country, with six regions experiencing more frequent very wet winters.
A new study published in Nature suggests that Earth's last ice age may provide crucial insights into future El Niño weather events. Researchers used ancient shells of marine organisms and advanced climate modeling to shed light on how El Niño patterns might change in a warming world.
A University of Illinois study found that climate conditions can mitigate the effects of grazing on water quality, suggesting a more flexible approach to stocking rates and grazing continuity. The research developed a modeling framework to simulate nitrogen transport from livestock grazing under different climate conditions.
A new analysis reveals that increased inundation and water storage in wetlands drove the record surge in atmospheric methane emissions from 2020 to 2022. Wetland microbes produce methane as they metabolize organic matter anaerobically, leading to a significant increase in release to the atmosphere.
A new study warns that future climate change will intensify wildfires in the Arctic region, leading to an abrupt switch from no fires to very intense ones within just a few years. The accelerated permafrost thawing is expected to increase soil water and vegetation biomass, exacerbating fire fuel.
A new study suggests that using state-of-the-art energy efficiency technologies can enable Europe's construction sector to almost eliminate its carbon emissions by 2060. Employing technologies like solar energy and heat pumps can reduce total energy used for heating and cooling buildings by up to 97%.
Researchers developed a model using gene activity to predict when Somei Yoshino cherry tree buds awake from dormancy. The study found that the breaking of endodormancy requires around 61 days with temperatures lower than 10.1°C, and climate change is delaying this process by 2.3 days per decade.
A new study reveals that Earth's surface temperature has varied more greatly over the past 485 million years than previously thought. The study, co-led by the Smithsonian and University of Arizona, confirms that carbon dioxide is strongly correlated with global temperatures across geological time.
Researchers at Tohoku University created a detailed model of organic matter production in ancient Martian atmosphere, suggesting that formaldehyde contributed to formation of organic matter. The study found that the depletion of 13C in organic matter on Mars was due to photodissociation of CO2 by solar ultraviolet radiation.
A new reconstruction of Earth's temperature history over the past 485 million years reveals a wider range of climate variability than previously understood. The study suggests that atmospheric carbon dioxide has been the primary driver of climate changes during this period, with temperatures varying more dynamically than thought.
A new study provides a complete picture of the last Snowball Earth's end and suggests its connection to the emergence of complex lifeforms. The research focuses on ancient rocks known as cap carbonates, which preserve clues about Earth's atmosphere and oceans.
A new study identifies multiple technologies to cost-effectively decarbonize the energy system, prioritizing their adoption and transition. The findings suggest a range of options to achieve near-cost-optimal futures, emphasizing research and development investments.
A new study suggests that urban heating and cooling systems will significantly impact future energy demand due to climate change, with smaller-scale city-level waste heat contributing to local microclimates. The research emphasizes the need for comprehensive climate impact assessment and science-based policymaking to address this issue.
Researchers at HUN-REN Centre for Ecological Research found that specific climate periods can shift by several months or even six months within a year, affecting species distribution. This shift poses significant challenges for distribution models, potentially leading to extinction or migration of species.
A Dartmouth-led study projects that Antarctica's glaciers will rapidly retreat and potentially collapse by 2200, increasing global sea levels by up to 5.5 feet by 2300. The researchers used 16 ice-sheet models to refine the projection of ice loss over the next 300 years.
A new study reveals that the Amazon's remarkable variety of plants and animals was shaped by woodlands and savannas connecting forest islands during the last Ice Age. The researchers used advanced climate and vegetation modelling techniques to provide a new understanding of the region's evolution.
Researchers Gavin Cornwell, Sneha Couvillion, and Bo Peng will study bioparticles, soil microbes, and their impact on climate models. They aim to improve representations of ice nucleating particles and understand lipid exchange in soil ecosystems.
Scientists propose alternative explanation for doldrums' lack of wind, attributing it to sinking air masses and clear weather conditions. The study challenges traditional textbook explanation and offers new insights into the Intertropical Convergence Zone.
Researchers at Ohio State University found that US droughts in the Southwest and rainy extremes in the Northeast are becoming more frequent and severe. The study predicts bigger swings between wetter and drier periods in the mid-United States, straining water management efforts.
Researchers at Tel Aviv University used modern technologies to challenge the long-held myth that the Roman siege of Masada lasted three years. The study found that the siege actually lasted no more than a few weeks, using precise measurements and 3D digital modeling to calculate the time it took to build the siege system.
Researchers from Leipzig University studied cloud movement in the Arctic using a large-scale international research campaign called HALO (AC)³. They observed air mass transformations over open ocean, sea ice, and central Arctic sea ice.
Researchers developed a new type of temperature-adaptive radiative cooling device with improved performance, reducing solar absorptance by 7.54% and increasing emissivity by 13.3%. This advancement holds promise for optimizing energy use and advancing sustainable thermal management solutions.
The 'Our Way Model' reveals four phases of human dispersal, including a slow expansion from the Levant to western Europe and rapid advancements into previously unsettled areas. Climate change significantly impacted human dispersal, with periods of severe cold and warming influencing population growth and decline.
A new model developed by scientists can predict intense, localized heavy rainfall events caused by rapid air rises in clouds. This breakthrough offers potential to improve public safety and preparedness through early warning systems.
A new study from Imperial College London reveals that current projections for scaling up carbon storage technologies are unlikely to meet ambitious climate change targets. The researchers estimate that a more realistic global benchmark for CO2 storage is in the range of 5-6 gigatonnes per year by 2050.
Researchers analyzed satellite data to understand solar irradiance variability in the Asia Pacific region, revealing optimal locations for solar power plants and distribution strategies to minimize fluctuations. The study's findings will help plan for sustainable energy technologies and combat climate change.
A new mathematical theory offers insights into how heat travels through sea ice, which affects global climate predictions. The study provides a way to relate sea ice's thermal properties to its temperature and salt content, allowing for more accurate climate models.
A recent study published in PNAS explores how plants combine clock signals with environmental cues under naturally fluctuating conditions. The research team developed statistical models that accurately predict gene expression activity under control of circadian clock responses to environmental signals.
The ocean's twilight zone plays a crucial role in regulating marine phytoplankton productivity, which is essential for the marine food chain. Researchers have found that warming temperatures can strengthen the recycling of nutrients between the ocean layers, with significant implications for climate change projections.
A new study led by Dartmouth researchers questions the rapid polar ice collapse model used in the IPCC's sixth assessment report. The team found that the expected rate of retreat is significantly lower than predicted, making the worst-case scenario less likely, but still dire due to ongoing ice loss from Greenland and Antarctica.
Engineers at MIT have developed a physics-based model that accurately represents airflow around rotors under extreme conditions. This new theory has the potential to improve rotor blade designs and optimize wind farm layouts for maximum power output and safety.
A new study suggests that climate change and ageing populations will widen regional disparities in death risk from hot and cold temperatures in Europe. By 2100, heat-related deaths are projected to increase significantly, mostly in southern regions, while cold-related deaths are expected to decline slightly.
A new AI approach accurately links heat waves to global warming, estimating that record-setting heat waves could occur multiple times per decade under higher warming levels. The method uses actual historical weather data and machine learning to predict the magnitude of extreme events.
Climate change is projected to increase hydropower generation in the US, with a 5% rise in near-term production and 10% increase in midterm. However, seasonal changes and regional variations may lead to significant decreases in some areas, such as the Southwest.
Researchers are working on a new approach to breeding corn that incorporates genomic selection and gene expression analysis to improve climate resilience. They aim to develop high-accuracy prediction models that can identify suitable genotypes for specific locations and future climates, reducing the need for trial-and-error approaches.
A new study reveals that climate models exhibit pronounced biases in simulating the global monsoon, with the dry and wet biases found in earlier models persisting. However, CMIP6 models show significant improvements over CMIP5, attributed to reduced dry biases and better representation of energy transport.
A new study finds that reduced sulfur emissions from shipping industry likely contributed to nearly 20% of record-breaking 2023 warmth, while regulations also accelerated warming. Further research is needed to understand the magnitude of climate response.
A new international study underscores the need to integrate technological advancements with robust institutional capacities to formulate effective climate policies. The research found that inadequate institutional capacity could hinder reaching even 2°C targets, while improved global institutional support could enhance the likelihood o...
A study by ETH Zurich scientists found that global warming's effects on plant recovery can last for thousands to millions of years. The research team discovered that the severity of climate shifts and the speed at which carbon is sequestered affect the duration of climate warming.
Researchers found that air pollution affects people differently, causing some to feel less aroused and more negative. The study suggests that this effect can contribute to increased anxiety risk and inform climate adaptation planning.
A new approach incorporating machine learning and a novel radar technique has solved the 'cloud cover' problem in remote sensing, improving land surface temperature tracking accuracy. This is achieved by combining better elevation models with multiple radar echoes from SAR images to reconstruct optical data.
Researchers at Brown University found that temperature increases enterovirus transmission, with a similar effect seen in polio historically and more recent enteroviruses causing hand, foot and mouth disease. Climate change may lead to increased intensity of outbreaks, particularly in regions with larger seasonal temperature ranges.
A new study by Universitat Rovira i Virgili and Imperial College London challenges current renewable energy forecasts, citing material limitations that may hinder the development of clean energy technologies. The research team proposes incorporating equations that account for material availability and promoting recycling to make foreca...
A new study suggests that the rising earth in Antarctica will impact future sea level rise, depending on how much global warming is controlled. If humans lower greenhouse gas emissions, upward shifts in solid earth could reduce Antarctica's contribution to sea level rise by about 40%, bolstering best-case scenarios for global sea level...
Scientists at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory have developed new pathways for the formation of aerosol particles, which are shown to be nearly triple the amount estimated using traditional methods. The team's work improves climate models' ability to predict Earth's system changes and reduces uncertainty in aerosol-climate science.
Researchers analyzed four core climate tipping elements, including the Greenland Ice Sheet and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, to determine the risks of destabilization due to overshooting 1.5°C. Achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions is crucial to limit tipping risks.
Climate change is expected to shift the distribution of eight commercially important marine fish and invertebrate species northwards due to warmer water temperatures and loss of sea ice habitat. This could lead to changes in the abundance and economic viability of fisheries, with some species potentially benefiting while others decline.
A new mapping tool from North Carolina State University uses machine learning and open-source satellite imagery to model flooding in urban environments. The model creates maps that predict urban area flooding, helping officials make informed choices about flood resiliency and prevention resources.
Researchers from MARUM and the National Oceanography Centre analyzed sensor data over four years to determine seafloor currents in deep waters. The study found that currents sped up, slowed down, reversed direction, and were steered by seafloor relief, contradicting previous steady models.
Researchers introduce ghost channels and cycles to understand transient behaviors in complex systems like climate processes or neuronal networks. This new approach challenges traditional concepts based on stable or unstable equilibria, potentially helping predict tipping cascades and ecosystem degradation.
A new study confirms that human-induced climate change is making rainfall patterns more volatile globally, with increased variability observed since the 1900s in 75% of land areas studied. The researchers found daily rainfall variability to have increased by 1.2% per decade.
Researchers found that turbulent movements of air in clouds play a key role in the growth of droplets and initiation of rain. Simulations with turbulence showed rain formed around 20 minutes earlier and with seven times more rainwater than simulations without turbulence.
Washington University researchers have made new measurements of black carbon in pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) clouds, which are extremely hot and can linger for months. The study found that these particles absorb visible sunlight two times as much as those from smaller fires and urban sources.