Articles tagged with Climate Modeling
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New studies reveal significant increases in Atlantic hurricane seasons and derecho events, while also highlighting the dangers of turbulence near thunderstorms and extreme heat stress. Climate models predict a rise in precipitation extremes across US cities, particularly during winter and spring.
Researchers at the Alfred Wegener Institute have developed a new approach called 'storylines' that uses probabilistic attribution studies and 'nudging' techniques to identify the fingerprints of climate change in extreme weather events. By comparing hypothetical scenarios with reality, they can determine how much more probable an event...
The Macrosystems EDDIE modules have been effective in building student and instructor quantitative literacy and data science skills in ecological forecasting, reaching over 35,000 students globally. The modules aim to introduce students to core concepts of forecasting and complement educators' work teaching ecological concepts.
A new study warns of potential water shortages in Brazil's agricultural frontier region, MATOPIBA, as climate change exacerbates overuse of water resources. The study predicts that crop irrigation demand may not meet local requirements by up to 40% by 2025-40.
A new study by Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and IIASA scientists suggests that there are three promising routes to make significant progress towards the UN Sustainable Development Goals and the Paris Agreement. The study's results show that all three pathways are far more effective than current 'business as usual' scen...
A 15-year study of an ancient ecosystem in Bolivia provides a comprehensive view of the Earth's past, revealing warmer temperatures and lower elevation. The team found fossils of diverse animals and plants, reconstructing the site as a dry forest or wooded savanna with palms and bamboos.
A new study reveals how decadal-scale climate fluctuations impact tropical cyclone frequency in response to ENSO events. The FGOALS-g3 large ensemble model shows improved performance in capturing the ENSO-affected cyclone activity, highlighting the importance of accounting for decadal variability.
Researchers at UMass Amherst have estimated carbon dioxide emissions from inland waters to 22 million US lakes, rivers and reservoirs. Their new modeling approach reveals previous methods may have overestimated CO2 emissions by as much as 25%.
A new study reveals that the Amazon rainforest is threatened by global warming and deforestation, which can trigger a domino effect on the entire system. The analysis of residual pollen and carbon residues suggests that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) plays a crucial role in shaping the Amazon ecosystem.
Upgrading home insulation can lower medical bills and extend healthy lives by reducing blood pressure and CVD risk. Simulations showed that upgrading or retrofitting insulation is cost-effective for many homeowners, with significant health benefits justifying the costs.
The team developed an exascale climate emulator with enhanced resolution without increasing data storage needs. The emulator offers a remarkable resolution of 3.5 kilometers, replicating local conditions on a timescale from days to hours.
Researchers at Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona found a 1.1 ºC temperature increase in the Roque de los Muchachos Observatory over 20 years, more than double predicted by climate models. The study also revealed an increase in diurnal temperature range and seasonal oscillations.
A study on Spanish dehesas has developed a tool to model pastureland productivity and water stress, allowing for more efficient grazing management. During severe droughts, grass production can drop by up to 67%, with areas having limited slopes and moderate tree cover being the most productive.
Researchers at PIK found that three sustainable development pathways are far more effective than current 'business as usual' strategies, driving progress towards SDGs while curbing global warming and environmental degradation. The pathways include a rapid shift to plant-based nutrition and reduced energy use per capita.
A new study has found that a significant fraction of meltwater mass is stored temporarily within the Greenland Ice Sheet during summer months, peaking in July. This discovery will help improve climate models, which often underestimate the complexity of water storage within ice sheets.
A global study published in Nature reveals that over 215 million hectares of tropical forests can support natural regeneration, sequestering 23.4 gigatonnes of carbon over 30 years. The identified area spans across five countries, including Brazil, Indonesia, China, Mexico, and Colombia, highlighting the need for targeted restoration e...
A new study by the Barcelona Institute for Global Health found that more than half of European heat-related deaths in summer 2022 were related to human-induced climate change. The research showed a higher number of heat-related deaths attributed to climate change among women and people aged 80 and over.
A Dartmouth study has quantified the global economic fallout of El Niño, finding it costs the economy $4.1 trillion and $5.7 trillion in the half-decade after each event. The study's findings are included in the 10 New Insights in Climate Science report ahead of COP29.
Researchers explored how future changes in the North Water Polynya could impact marine communities. Changes in plankton and fish populations were found to have significant effects on the entire ecosystem. Polar bear numbers are projected to halve due to declining phytoplankton and copepods.
A new study published in Geophysical Research Letters refines permafrost loss estimates for High Mountain Asia (HMA) under future warming. By adjusting climate sensitivity values, the researchers found that HMA permafrost area could shrink by 37% to 64% under mid- and low-emission scenarios by 2081-2100.
Researchers discovered that Titan's icy surface is warmed by an insulating layer of methane clathrate ice, which relaxes the impact craters' shape. This finding helps explain Titan's unique hydrological cycle and climate.
A collaborative project between the UK and China aims to develop actionable climate information for the tea industry, informing adaptation measures and decision-making. The Tea-CUP project focuses on Yunnan Province, where climate variability affects tea yield and quality, and has broader implications for sustainable development.
Under climate change scenarios, Ethiopia's Arabica coffee production suitability is expected to rise by 30-44%, while some cultivated areas will become less suitable. The study models indicate that this shift will occur by 2080.
A new study by MIT researchers shows that climate change will significantly impact outdoor activities in the US, with Florida and other Southeastern states experiencing major drops in
Researchers verify that large biodiversity databases can calibrate community models, improving predictions on species distribution and interactions. At least 50% of species must be recorded for accurate predictions, according to a study using GIBIF data.
Research from multiple ice cores in Greenland provides new understanding of Dansgaard-Oeschger events, which represent 'tipping points' in Earth's climate. The findings suggest interactions between the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and wintertime sea ice play a key role in these events.
Scientists estimate a 31% increase in global photosynthesis due to rising CO2 levels, with pan-tropical rainforests accounting for the largest difference. This improvement can enhance climate predictions and highlight the importance of natural carbon sequestration.
Researchers found that the El Niño oscillation persisted at least 250 million years ago, with more intense temperature swings. The study suggests that atmospheric noise from ocean surface winds plays a key role in the oscillation's magnitude.
Scientists have identified over 23,000 genes known as auxiliary metabolic genes (AMGs) that viruses 'steal' from ocean microbes, affecting 37% of metabolic pathways. The research catalogues these genes, shedding light on the vital role of viruses in nutrient cycling and oxygen production.
Researchers at FSU and South Korea have improved hurricane intensity forecasting by accounting for the impact of sea spray on storms. By analyzing data from hurricane hunter airplanes, they found that sea spray increases heat and moisture in the atmosphere, leading to more accurate intensity forecasts.
A new study uses deep learning to infer the frequency of atmospheric blocking events over the past 1,000 years, shedding light on their potential impact under climate change. The model was trained using historical data and large ensembles of climate model simulations.
The second ForestPaths Policy Lab brought together diverse stakeholders to share visions for forests by 2050, focusing on climate change, biodiversity, and ecosystem services. Participants explored policy actions necessary to achieve these visions through modelling and pathway analysis.
Researchers at Rice University develop OpenSafe.AI, a system that leverages responsible AI and hazard models to provide timely insights for emergency response organizations and communities before, during, and after tropical cyclones and coastal storm events. The goal is to enable better preparation and navigation for severe weather.
A recent study by University of Miami researchers identifies El Niño-Southern Oscillation as the primary cause of the rapid warming of the planet in 2023. The analysis shows that nearly all temperature spikes were associated with an El Niño event, highlighting the significant impact of this climate phenomenon on global temperatures.
A new study reveals that models accurately capturing Indian summer monsoon rainfall can simulate the CGT pattern better. The research highlights the crucial link between monsoon rainfall and wave structure over west-central Asia, which is essential for improving climate model predictions.
New research led by energy systems modelers at Princeton University demonstrates that retiring coal plants based on minimizing costs could leave other climate and equity benefits on the table. Retiring half of Pennsylvania's coal plants under a climate- or equity-focused strategy could reduce carbon emissions, air pollution, and deaths...
A new study reveals that the southern boreal forests' ability to recover from climate shocks has significantly decreased over time, threatening Arctic carbon storage. The resilience of many plant communities in these regions is thought to have increased in most of the Arctic tundra, but this may not be sustainable in the long term.
Researchers conducted live field experiments to better understand the physics of firebrands and their impact on wildfires. They found that ember creation is highly intermittent, occurring in large bursts that can hurl fire-starting debris far from the source.
A new study applies modern portfolio theory to conserve the coquí llanero frog by diversifying investments and managing risk under future climate uncertainty. The analysis suggests that relying on existing protected areas may not be enough to mitigate climate risks, and investing in additional habitats could be worth the cost.
A recent study found that climate factors play a more dominant role in determining wood density for tree species than soil characteristics, while both factors equally influence shrub species. The research provides new insights into vegetation responses to environmental factors, with implications for improving ecosystem predictions.
A new synthesis of regional climate data highlights the need for climate adaptation policy based on the latest regional climate science. Emerging signals of climate change are expected to significantly alter monsoon intensity, leading to substantial societal impacts in tropical and subtropical regions.
The University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign Institute for Sustainability, Energy, and Environment will receive funding to improve mitigation estimates for agricultural management practices. The funding will support the work of researchers in advancing the understanding of conservation practices on greenhouse gas fluxes.
A new study led by University of Illinois Chicago scientist Akintomide Akinsanola found that most Americans can expect wetter winters in the future due to global warming. Winter precipitation and extreme weather events are expected to increase across most of the country, with six regions experiencing more frequent very wet winters.
A new study published in Nature suggests that Earth's last ice age may provide crucial insights into future El Niño weather events. Researchers used ancient shells of marine organisms and advanced climate modeling to shed light on how El Niño patterns might change in a warming world.
A University of Illinois study found that climate conditions can mitigate the effects of grazing on water quality, suggesting a more flexible approach to stocking rates and grazing continuity. The research developed a modeling framework to simulate nitrogen transport from livestock grazing under different climate conditions.
A new study warns that future climate change will intensify wildfires in the Arctic region, leading to an abrupt switch from no fires to very intense ones within just a few years. The accelerated permafrost thawing is expected to increase soil water and vegetation biomass, exacerbating fire fuel.
A new analysis reveals that increased inundation and water storage in wetlands drove the record surge in atmospheric methane emissions from 2020 to 2022. Wetland microbes produce methane as they metabolize organic matter anaerobically, leading to a significant increase in release to the atmosphere.
A new study suggests that using state-of-the-art energy efficiency technologies can enable Europe's construction sector to almost eliminate its carbon emissions by 2060. Employing technologies like solar energy and heat pumps can reduce total energy used for heating and cooling buildings by up to 97%.
Researchers at Tohoku University created a detailed model of organic matter production in ancient Martian atmosphere, suggesting that formaldehyde contributed to formation of organic matter. The study found that the depletion of 13C in organic matter on Mars was due to photodissociation of CO2 by solar ultraviolet radiation.
A new reconstruction of Earth's temperature history over the past 485 million years reveals a wider range of climate variability than previously understood. The study suggests that atmospheric carbon dioxide has been the primary driver of climate changes during this period, with temperatures varying more dynamically than thought.
Researchers developed a model using gene activity to predict when Somei Yoshino cherry tree buds awake from dormancy. The study found that the breaking of endodormancy requires around 61 days with temperatures lower than 10.1°C, and climate change is delaying this process by 2.3 days per decade.
A new study reveals that Earth's surface temperature has varied more greatly over the past 485 million years than previously thought. The study, co-led by the Smithsonian and University of Arizona, confirms that carbon dioxide is strongly correlated with global temperatures across geological time.
A new study provides a complete picture of the last Snowball Earth's end and suggests its connection to the emergence of complex lifeforms. The research focuses on ancient rocks known as cap carbonates, which preserve clues about Earth's atmosphere and oceans.
A new study identifies multiple technologies to cost-effectively decarbonize the energy system, prioritizing their adoption and transition. The findings suggest a range of options to achieve near-cost-optimal futures, emphasizing research and development investments.
Researchers at HUN-REN Centre for Ecological Research found that specific climate periods can shift by several months or even six months within a year, affecting species distribution. This shift poses significant challenges for distribution models, potentially leading to extinction or migration of species.
A new study suggests that urban heating and cooling systems will significantly impact future energy demand due to climate change, with smaller-scale city-level waste heat contributing to local microclimates. The research emphasizes the need for comprehensive climate impact assessment and science-based policymaking to address this issue.
A Dartmouth-led study projects that Antarctica's glaciers will rapidly retreat and potentially collapse by 2200, increasing global sea levels by up to 5.5 feet by 2300. The researchers used 16 ice-sheet models to refine the projection of ice loss over the next 300 years.
Researchers Gavin Cornwell, Sneha Couvillion, and Bo Peng will study bioparticles, soil microbes, and their impact on climate models. They aim to improve representations of ice nucleating particles and understand lipid exchange in soil ecosystems.
A new study reveals that the Amazon's remarkable variety of plants and animals was shaped by woodlands and savannas connecting forest islands during the last Ice Age. The researchers used advanced climate and vegetation modelling techniques to provide a new understanding of the region's evolution.
Scientists propose alternative explanation for doldrums' lack of wind, attributing it to sinking air masses and clear weather conditions. The study challenges traditional textbook explanation and offers new insights into the Intertropical Convergence Zone.