Coral adaptation unlikely to keep pace with global warming
A new study suggests that coral heat tolerance adaptation via natural selection may be insufficient to overcome the impacts of ocean warming, unless Paris Agreement commitments are realized.
Climate Modeling
Articles tagged with Climate Modeling
The melting of Greenland: a climate challenge with major implications for the 21st century
The melting of Greenland's ice sheet is accelerating due to high greenhouse gas emissions, with potential losses of up to 1735 gigatonnes of ice per year. This will lead to a one-meter rise in sea levels, posing a significant threat to millions of people in coastal areas.
Oceans emit sulfur and cool the climate more than previously thought
A recent study reveals that oceans produce a previously unknown sulfur gas called methanethiol, which cools the climate by increasing aerosol formation and reflecting solar radiation. This new compound is found to have a greater cooling capacity than dimethyl sulphide and its impact on climate models.
Mapping the world's climate danger zones
A new study provides the first worldwide map of high-risk regions experiencing accelerating extreme heat, surpassing climate model simulations. The most hard-hit areas include central China, Japan, and northwestern Europe, where sequences of heat waves led to thousands of deaths in 2022 and 2023.
Unexplained heat-wave ‘hotspots’ are popping up across the globe
A recent study identifies 'heatwave hotspots' across the globe, with extreme temperatures breaking records and causing devastating effects. The phenomenon is not limited to specific regions, but its causes are still unclear, highlighting the complexity of climate change.
Researchers show complex relationship between Arctic warming and Arctic dust
A new study by Nagoya University researchers reveals a complex relationship between Arctic warming and Arctic dust. Higher temperatures lead to increased dust emissions, promoting ice nucleation in clouds and potentially counteracting temperature feedback mechanisms.
New AI tool generates realistic satellite images of future flooding
A new AI tool generates realistic satellite images of future flooding, which can help communities visualize and prepare for approaching storms. The method combines a generative artificial intelligence model with a physics-based flood model, producing more accurate and realistic images than an AI-only approach.
Gordon Bell Climate Prize goes to Kaust Frontier Users’ Exascale Climate Emulator
A team of researchers developed an exascale climate emulator that offers faster, radically enhanced high-resolution simulations without massive data storage needs. The emulator uses mixed-precision arithmetic to preserve accuracy and improve performance.
Impact of climate change on water resources will increase price tag to decarbonize the grid
A new study warns that climate change's impact on water resources will significantly increase the cost of achieving zero-emission grids by 2050. The required investments in generation and transmission infrastructure are expected to be massive, with up to 139 gigawatts of power capacity needed in the Western United States.
Quantum mechanism identified as a key to accelerating ocean temperatures
Researchers identify a quantum mechanism as key to accelerating ocean temperatures, which current climate models fail to predict. The study proposes a new paradigm that factors in non-thermal energy, suggesting a revised approach to understanding ocean thermal stability and climate change.
Recipients of prestigious climate modelling prize developed a technique to provide more accurate and detailed climate change predictions
The winning team presented an exascale climate emulator that addresses the growing computational and storage requirements of high-resolution Earth System Models. This innovation enables more advanced climate modeling capabilities, holding significant potential for advancing climate research and policy-making.
Using the world’s fastest exascale computer, ACM Gordon Bell Prize-winning team presents record-breaking algorithm to advance understanding of chemistry and biology
A team of researchers developed a new technique combining methods to simulate molecules, achieving accuracy and efficiency on the Frontier exascale supercomputer. They broke records with simulations of over one million electrons and scaled their algorithm to an EFlop/s processing quintillion calculations per second.
Improving hurricane modeling with physics-informed machine learning
A new machine learning algorithm reconstructs wind fields quickly and accurately, even with limited observational data. This enhances storm forecasting and hazard preparedness by providing valuable data on a tropical cyclone's intensity and potential impact.
Collected climate data from Nigeria that researchers need
A new study has obtained good climate data from Nigeria, a critical area in Africa, to improve climate models. The research focuses on housing types and electricity use, providing insights into reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
Colorado River basins could face tipping point, drought study warns
A new study warns that Colorado's West Slope basins, supporting a $5 billion agriculture economy, face a potential tipping point due to drought vulnerability. The research suggests that even moderate climate change and streamflow declines can threaten water storage, agriculture, and municipal supplies.
Up to 94% of Amazonian land might become unsuitable for the Brazil nut tree by 2100 under climate change, per modelling study including four climate scenarios
A modelling study predicts up to 94% of Amazonian land may become inhospitable to the Brazil nut tree by 2100 due to climate change. The study, including four climate scenarios, examines the tree's potential future in the Amazon region.
Longer droughts, bigger floods: UMass Amherst hydrologist maps the future of water in New England
A new study will use advanced integrated hydrologic models to predict New England's water budget changes, tracking shifts in the water table, rainstorm intensity, and drought timing. The research aims to help prepare for an uncertain future by understanding where climate change is altering weather patterns.
AMS Science Preview: Turbulence & thunderstorms, heat stress, future derechos
New studies reveal significant increases in Atlantic hurricane seasons and derecho events, while also highlighting the dangers of turbulence near thunderstorms and extreme heat stress. Climate models predict a rise in precipitation extremes across US cities, particularly during winter and spring.
How much climate change is in the weather?
Researchers at the Alfred Wegener Institute have developed a new approach called 'storylines' that uses probabilistic attribution studies and 'nudging' techniques to identify the fingerprints of climate change in extreme weather events. By comparing hypothetical scenarios with reality, they can determine how much more probable an event...
Water overuse in MATOPIBA could mean failure to meet up to 40% of local demand for crop irrigation
A new study warns of potential water shortages in Brazil's agricultural frontier region, MATOPIBA, as climate change exacerbates overuse of water resources. The study predicts that crop irrigation demand may not meet local requirements by up to 40% by 2025-40.
Three pathways to achieve global climate and sustainable development goals
A new study by Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and IIASA scientists suggests that there are three promising routes to make significant progress towards the UN Sustainable Development Goals and the Paris Agreement. The study's results show that all three pathways are far more effective than current 'business as usual' scen...
Education modules build student and instructor skills
The Macrosystems EDDIE modules have been effective in building student and instructor quantitative literacy and data science skills in ecological forecasting, reaching over 35,000 students globally. The modules aim to introduce students to core concepts of forecasting and complement educators' work teaching ecological concepts.
Decadal climate patterns reveal new insights into tropical cyclone formation and ENSO link
A new study reveals how decadal-scale climate fluctuations impact tropical cyclone frequency in response to ENSO events. The FGOALS-g3 large ensemble model shows improved performance in capturing the ENSO-affected cyclone activity, highlighting the importance of accounting for decadal variability.
New UMass research estimates carbon emissions from 22 million stream reaches across the US
Researchers at UMass Amherst have estimated carbon dioxide emissions from inland waters to 22 million US lakes, rivers and reservoirs. Their new modeling approach reveals previous methods may have overestimated CO2 emissions by as much as 25%.
Domino effect in the Amazon region
A new study reveals that the Amazon rainforest is threatened by global warming and deforestation, which can trigger a domino effect on the entire system. The analysis of residual pollen and carbon residues suggests that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) plays a crucial role in shaping the Amazon ecosystem.
Reconstructing ancient climate provides clues to climate change
A 15-year study of an ancient ecosystem in Bolivia provides a comprehensive view of the Earth's past, revealing warmer temperatures and lower elevation. The team found fossils of diverse animals and plants, reconstructing the site as a dry forest or wooded savanna with palms and bamboos.
Warmer homes for healthier hearts and brains: insulated housing reduces cardiovascular risk in Japan
Upgrading home insulation can lower medical bills and extend healthy lives by reducing blood pressure and CVD risk. Simulations showed that upgrading or retrofitting insulation is cost-effective for many homeowners, with significant health benefits justifying the costs.
Frontier users’ Exascale Climate Emulator nominated for Gordon Bell Climate Prize
The team developed an exascale climate emulator with enhanced resolution without increasing data storage needs. The emulator offers a remarkable resolution of 3.5 kilometers, replicating local conditions on a timescale from days to hours.
Temperature at Roque de los Muchachos Observatory rose 1.1 ºC in 20 years, twice as much as predicted by climate models
Researchers at Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona found a 1.1 ºC temperature increase in the Roque de los Muchachos Observatory over 20 years, more than double predicted by climate models. The study also revealed an increase in diurnal temperature range and seasonal oscillations.
Droughts’ impact on pasturelands is measured in order toguide extensive livestock management on Spain’s dehesas
A study on Spanish dehesas has developed a tool to model pastureland productivity and water stress, allowing for more efficient grazing management. During severe droughts, grass production can drop by up to 67%, with areas having limited slopes and moderate tree cover being the most productive.
Three pathways to achieve global climate and sustainable development goals
Researchers at PIK found that three sustainable development pathways are far more effective than current 'business as usual' strategies, driving progress towards SDGs while curbing global warming and environmental degradation. The pathways include a rapid shift to plant-based nutrition and reduced energy use per capita.
Large meltwater accumulation revealed inside Greenland Ice Sheet
A new study has found that a significant fraction of meltwater mass is stored temporarily within the Greenland Ice Sheet during summer months, peaking in July. This discovery will help improve climate models, which often underestimate the complexity of water storage within ice sheets.
Global study reveals vast potential for natural forest regeneration
A global study published in Nature reveals that over 215 million hectares of tropical forests can support natural regeneration, sequestering 23.4 gigatonnes of carbon over 30 years. The identified area spans across five countries, including Brazil, Indonesia, China, Mexico, and Colombia, highlighting the need for targeted restoration e...
More than half of European heat-related deaths in summer 2022 attributed to anthropogenic warming
A new study by the Barcelona Institute for Global Health found that more than half of European heat-related deaths in summer 2022 were related to human-induced climate change. The research showed a higher number of heat-related deaths attributed to climate change among women and people aged 80 and over.
Dartmouth study lauded as key new climate science insight
A Dartmouth study has quantified the global economic fallout of El Niño, finding it costs the economy $4.1 trillion and $5.7 trillion in the half-decade after each event. The study's findings are included in the 10 New Insights in Climate Science report ahead of COP29.
Big shifts from tiny players: How climate change could disrupt Arctic ecosystems
Researchers explored how future changes in the North Water Polynya could impact marine communities. Changes in plankton and fish populations were found to have significant effects on the entire ecosystem. Polar bear numbers are projected to halve due to declining phytoplankton and copepods.
New study offers refined estimates of permafrost loss in High Mountain Asia under future warming
A new study published in Geophysical Research Letters refines permafrost loss estimates for High Mountain Asia (HMA) under future warming. By adjusting climate sensitivity values, the researchers found that HMA permafrost area could shrink by 37% to 64% under mid- and low-emission scenarios by 2081-2100.
Saturn’s moon Titan has insulating methane-rich crust up to six miles thick
Researchers discovered that Titan's icy surface is warmed by an insulating layer of methane clathrate ice, which relaxes the impact craters' shape. This finding helps explain Titan's unique hydrological cycle and climate.
Climate change no “storm in a teacup” for the tea industry: Joint initiative between the UK and China to provide climate services to help
A collaborative project between the UK and China aims to develop actionable climate information for the tea industry, informing adaptation measures and decision-making. The Tea-CUP project focuses on Yunnan Province, where climate variability affects tea yield and quality, and has broader implications for sustainable development.
Under climate change scenarios, 30-44% more land in Ethiopia might become suitable for growing arabica coffee by 2080, although some cultivated areas might also become unsuitable, per modelling study
Under climate change scenarios, Ethiopia's Arabica coffee production suitability is expected to rise by 30-44%, while some cultivated areas will become less suitable. The study models indicate that this shift will occur by 2080.
How climate change will impact outdoor activities in the US
A new study by MIT researchers shows that climate change will significantly impact outdoor activities in the US, with Florida and other Southeastern states experiencing major drops in
Massive biodiversity data collection improves ecosystem predictions
Researchers verify that large biodiversity databases can calibrate community models, improving predictions on species distribution and interactions. At least 50% of species must be recorded for accurate predictions, according to a study using GIBIF data.
New ice core data provides insight into climate ‘tipping points’ during the last Ice Age
Research from multiple ice cores in Greenland provides new understanding of Dansgaard-Oeschger events, which represent 'tipping points' in Earth's climate. The findings suggest interactions between the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and wintertime sea ice play a key role in these events.
Plant CO2 uptake rises by nearly one third in new global estimates
Scientists estimate a 31% increase in global photosynthesis due to rising CO2 levels, with pan-tropical rainforests accounting for the largest difference. This improvement can enhance climate predictions and highlight the importance of natural carbon sequestration.
Weather-changing El Niño oscillation is at least 250 million years old
Researchers found that the El Niño oscillation persisted at least 250 million years ago, with more intense temperature swings. The study suggests that atmospheric noise from ocean surface winds plays a key role in the oscillation's magnitude.
Identifying the genes that viruses ‘steal’ from ocean microbes
Scientists have identified over 23,000 genes known as auxiliary metabolic genes (AMGs) that viruses 'steal' from ocean microbes, affecting 37% of metabolic pathways. The research catalogues these genes, shedding light on the vital role of viruses in nutrient cycling and oxygen production.
FSU research improves hurricane intensity forecasting
Researchers at FSU and South Korea have improved hurricane intensity forecasting by accounting for the impact of sea spray on storms. By analyzing data from hurricane hunter airplanes, they found that sea spray increases heat and moisture in the atmosphere, leading to more accurate intensity forecasts.
Deep learning illuminates atmospheric blocking events of past, future
A new study uses deep learning to infer the frequency of atmospheric blocking events over the past 1,000 years, shedding light on their potential impact under climate change. The model was trained using historical data and large ensembles of climate model simulations.
ForestPaths' second Policy Lab unites stakeholders to envision forests in 2050 and explore pathways to make those visions a reality
The second ForestPaths Policy Lab brought together diverse stakeholders to share visions for forests by 2050, focusing on climate change, biodiversity, and ecosystem services. Participants explored policy actions necessary to achieve these visions through modelling and pathway analysis.
Rice-led research will leverage responsible AI to enhance coastal communities’ severe storm response
Researchers at Rice University develop OpenSafe.AI, a system that leverages responsible AI and hazard models to provide timely insights for emergency response organizations and communities before, during, and after tropical cyclones and coastal storm events. The goal is to enable better preparation and navigation for severe weather.
El Niño–southern oscillation caused the spike in 2023 temperatures, new study found
A recent study by University of Miami researchers identifies El Niño-Southern Oscillation as the primary cause of the rapid warming of the planet in 2023. The analysis shows that nearly all temperature spikes were associated with an El Niño event, highlighting the significant impact of this climate phenomenon on global temperatures.
New study highlights improved circumglobal teleconnection pattern in coupled models through better understanding of Indian summer monsoon's role
A new study reveals that models accurately capturing Indian summer monsoon rainfall can simulate the CGT pattern better. The research highlights the crucial link between monsoon rainfall and wave structure over west-central Asia, which is essential for improving climate model predictions.
Retiring coal plants with climate and equity in mind
New research led by energy systems modelers at Princeton University demonstrates that retiring coal plants based on minimizing costs could leave other climate and equity benefits on the table. Retiring half of Pennsylvania's coal plants under a climate- or equity-focused strategy could reduce carbon emissions, air pollution, and deaths...
Declines in plant resilience threaten carbon storage in the Arctic
A new study reveals that the southern boreal forests' ability to recover from climate shocks has significantly decreased over time, threatening Arctic carbon storage. The resilience of many plant communities in these regions is thought to have increased in most of the Arctic tundra, but this may not be sustainable in the long term.
UC Irvine scientists track and analyze lofted embers that cause spot fires
Researchers conducted live field experiments to better understand the physics of firebrands and their impact on wildfires. They found that ember creation is highly intermittent, occurring in large bursts that can hurl fire-starting debris far from the source.
How a common economic theory could help save endangered frogs
A new study applies modern portfolio theory to conserve the coquí llanero frog by diversifying investments and managing risk under future climate uncertainty. The analysis suggests that relying on existing protected areas may not be enough to mitigate climate risks, and investing in additional habitats could be worth the cost.
New research uncovers how climate and soil shape tree and shrub wood density across ecosystems
A recent study found that climate factors play a more dominant role in determining wood density for tree species than soil characteristics, while both factors equally influence shrub species. The research provides new insights into vegetation responses to environmental factors, with implications for improving ecosystem predictions.
Understanding regional climate change is essential for guiding effective climate adaptation policy, study finds
A new synthesis of regional climate data highlights the need for climate adaptation policy based on the latest regional climate science. Emerging signals of climate change are expected to significantly alter monsoon intensity, leading to substantial societal impacts in tropical and subtropical regions.
Inflation Reduction Act funding to allow Illinois scientists to contribute to US governmental efforts and improve mitigation estimates for agriculture management practices
The University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign Institute for Sustainability, Energy, and Environment will receive funding to improve mitigation estimates for agricultural management practices. The funding will support the work of researchers in advancing the understanding of conservation practices on greenhouse gas fluxes.
Climate change will lead to wetter US winters, modeling study finds
A new study led by University of Illinois Chicago scientist Akintomide Akinsanola found that most Americans can expect wetter winters in the future due to global warming. Winter precipitation and extreme weather events are expected to increase across most of the country, with six regions experiencing more frequent very wet winters.