Research modeling the climate and its extremes. Covers climate extremes, ocean-dipole types, weather forecasting, and AI ecosystem monitoring.
A study found that climate- and land use change will alter the availability of wild traditional foods in the Russian Far East, affecting Indigenous Peoples' health and livelihoods. Rural households heavily rely on these foods for income, with losses predicted in central and southern areas.
Researchers trained an AI system to predict future warming based on climate model simulations and historical temperature data. The study suggests that even in the best-case scenario, global warming will likely exceed 2 degrees Celsius, with severe impacts expected in regions such as South Asia and Central Europe.
Researchers at the University of Washington used a global climate model to simulate how ocean and air temperatures affect sea ice in the Southern Ocean. They found that warm Southern Ocean conditions and patterns in winds can explain 70% of the record-low winter sea ice extent in 2023, with similar predictions made for 2024.
A hybrid method links bottom-up behaviors and top-down causation in a single theory to capture interactions between small-scale behaviors and system-level properties in disturbed systems. The approach has been tested in examples such as post-fire forest ecosystems and pandemics, predicting ecological patterns and system dynamics.
A new study shows that coordinating the siting of solar farms, wind farms, and storage systems can improve efficiency and reduce costs by aligning renewable power generation with demand. The approach uses fine-grained weather data and energy system modeling to maximize utilization of renewable resources.
Researchers call for a shift away from outdated bathtub modeling, which oversimplifies flood risks, and towards dynamical modeling that accounts for key factors like storm drains and levees. The study found that bathtub models are consistently inaccurate, with scores below 0.5 on the critical success index.
Researchers link global warming spike in 2023 to reduced low-level cloud cover, which limits Earth's ability to reflect solar radiation. This decline in planetary albedo could explain the 'missing' 0.2 degrees Celsius of warming.
Ocean scientists will deploy sensors onboard high-tech floats to study tiny turbulent movements that pull water, heat, and chemicals from the surface down into the deep. This ventilation helps regulate the Earth's climate and buffer against human-induced climate change.
A recent study published in Nature found that isoprene, a naturally occurring organic compound emitted by vegetation, significantly contributes to the formation of new particles in the upper troposphere. Isoprene oxygenated organic molecules can rapidly form new particles under certain conditions.
A study by USC Dornsife scientists used satellite imagery, digital models, and field data to analyze the June 2021 Melamchi flood's triggers. The research found that heavy monsoon rainfall combined with excessive snowmelt overwhelmed river systems, causing catastrophic flooding.
A new study assesses the sustainability of varying Pacific walrus harvest rates under different climate and human disturbance scenarios. The research finds that current harvest levels are within a sustainable range if assessed regularly and adjusted accordingly.
Researchers at University of Liverpool develop new method to measure ocean memory, revealing the North Atlantic Ocean has a nearly two-decade memory. This surpasses previous estimates and highlights the importance of ocean circulation in climate system predictability.
Researchers criticize the Digital Twin of Earth concept, highlighting the discrepancy between scientific models and reality. New computer models require new methods for appropriate data analysis and interpretation to ensure accurate knowledge and results.
A new AI model, Spherical DYffusion, can predict climate patterns over 100 years in just 25 hours, making it 25 times faster than the state of the art. The model uses generative AI and physics data to achieve this breakthrough, reducing the need for supercomputers.
A new study found that climate warming can increase the severity of bacterial infections in cold-blooded animals like corals, insects, and fish. The researchers analyzed data from 60 experimental studies and found that infected animals were more likely to die when exposed to higher temperatures.
A recent study suggests coral heat tolerance adaptation may not keep pace with ocean warming, and some sensitive species may face extinction. The research modelled different climate scenarios, revealing that natural selection may be insufficient to ensure coral survival under expected warming levels.
A new study suggests that coral heat tolerance adaptation via natural selection may be insufficient to overcome the impacts of ocean warming, unless Paris Agreement commitments are realized.
The melting of Greenland's ice sheet is accelerating due to high greenhouse gas emissions, with potential losses of up to 1735 gigatonnes of ice per year. This will lead to a one-meter rise in sea levels, posing a significant threat to millions of people in coastal areas.
A recent study reveals that oceans produce a previously unknown sulfur gas called methanethiol, which cools the climate by increasing aerosol formation and reflecting solar radiation. This new compound is found to have a greater cooling capacity than dimethyl sulphide and its impact on climate models.
A recent study identifies 'heatwave hotspots' across the globe, with extreme temperatures breaking records and causing devastating effects. The phenomenon is not limited to specific regions, but its causes are still unclear, highlighting the complexity of climate change.
A new study by Nagoya University researchers reveals a complex relationship between Arctic warming and Arctic dust. Higher temperatures lead to increased dust emissions, promoting ice nucleation in clouds and potentially counteracting temperature feedback mechanisms.
A new study provides the first worldwide map of high-risk regions experiencing accelerating extreme heat, surpassing climate model simulations. The most hard-hit areas include central China, Japan, and northwestern Europe, where sequences of heat waves led to thousands of deaths in 2022 and 2023.
A new AI tool generates realistic satellite images of future flooding, which can help communities visualize and prepare for approaching storms. The method combines a generative artificial intelligence model with a physics-based flood model, producing more accurate and realistic images than an AI-only approach.
A team of researchers developed an exascale climate emulator that offers faster, radically enhanced high-resolution simulations without massive data storage needs. The emulator uses mixed-precision arithmetic to preserve accuracy and improve performance.
A new study warns that climate change's impact on water resources will significantly increase the cost of achieving zero-emission grids by 2050. The required investments in generation and transmission infrastructure are expected to be massive, with up to 139 gigawatts of power capacity needed in the Western United States.
Researchers identify a quantum mechanism as key to accelerating ocean temperatures, which current climate models fail to predict. The study proposes a new paradigm that factors in non-thermal energy, suggesting a revised approach to understanding ocean thermal stability and climate change.
A team of researchers developed a new technique combining methods to simulate molecules, achieving accuracy and efficiency on the Frontier exascale supercomputer. They broke records with simulations of over one million electrons and scaled their algorithm to an EFlop/s processing quintillion calculations per second.
The winning team presented an exascale climate emulator that addresses the growing computational and storage requirements of high-resolution Earth System Models. This innovation enables more advanced climate modeling capabilities, holding significant potential for advancing climate research and policy-making.
A new machine learning algorithm reconstructs wind fields quickly and accurately, even with limited observational data. This enhances storm forecasting and hazard preparedness by providing valuable data on a tropical cyclone's intensity and potential impact.
A new study has obtained good climate data from Nigeria, a critical area in Africa, to improve climate models. The research focuses on housing types and electricity use, providing insights into reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
A new study warns that Colorado's West Slope basins, supporting a $5 billion agriculture economy, face a potential tipping point due to drought vulnerability. The research suggests that even moderate climate change and streamflow declines can threaten water storage, agriculture, and municipal supplies.
A modelling study predicts up to 94% of Amazonian land may become inhospitable to the Brazil nut tree by 2100 due to climate change. The study, including four climate scenarios, examines the tree's potential future in the Amazon region.
A new study will use advanced integrated hydrologic models to predict New England's water budget changes, tracking shifts in the water table, rainstorm intensity, and drought timing. The research aims to help prepare for an uncertain future by understanding where climate change is altering weather patterns.
New studies reveal significant increases in Atlantic hurricane seasons and derecho events, while also highlighting the dangers of turbulence near thunderstorms and extreme heat stress. Climate models predict a rise in precipitation extremes across US cities, particularly during winter and spring.
Researchers at the Alfred Wegener Institute have developed a new approach called 'storylines' that uses probabilistic attribution studies and 'nudging' techniques to identify the fingerprints of climate change in extreme weather events. By comparing hypothetical scenarios with reality, they can determine how much more probable an event...
A new study warns of potential water shortages in Brazil's agricultural frontier region, MATOPIBA, as climate change exacerbates overuse of water resources. The study predicts that crop irrigation demand may not meet local requirements by up to 40% by 2025-40.
A new study by Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and IIASA scientists suggests that there are three promising routes to make significant progress towards the UN Sustainable Development Goals and the Paris Agreement. The study's results show that all three pathways are far more effective than current 'business as usual' scen...
The Macrosystems EDDIE modules have been effective in building student and instructor quantitative literacy and data science skills in ecological forecasting, reaching over 35,000 students globally. The modules aim to introduce students to core concepts of forecasting and complement educators' work teaching ecological concepts.
Researchers at UMass Amherst have estimated carbon dioxide emissions from inland waters to 22 million US lakes, rivers and reservoirs. Their new modeling approach reveals previous methods may have overestimated CO2 emissions by as much as 25%.
A new study reveals that the Amazon rainforest is threatened by global warming and deforestation, which can trigger a domino effect on the entire system. The analysis of residual pollen and carbon residues suggests that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) plays a crucial role in shaping the Amazon ecosystem.
A 15-year study of an ancient ecosystem in Bolivia provides a comprehensive view of the Earth's past, revealing warmer temperatures and lower elevation. The team found fossils of diverse animals and plants, reconstructing the site as a dry forest or wooded savanna with palms and bamboos.
A new study reveals how decadal-scale climate fluctuations impact tropical cyclone frequency in response to ENSO events. The FGOALS-g3 large ensemble model shows improved performance in capturing the ENSO-affected cyclone activity, highlighting the importance of accounting for decadal variability.
Upgrading home insulation can lower medical bills and extend healthy lives by reducing blood pressure and CVD risk. Simulations showed that upgrading or retrofitting insulation is cost-effective for many homeowners, with significant health benefits justifying the costs.
Researchers at Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona found a 1.1 ºC temperature increase in the Roque de los Muchachos Observatory over 20 years, more than double predicted by climate models. The study also revealed an increase in diurnal temperature range and seasonal oscillations.
The team developed an exascale climate emulator with enhanced resolution without increasing data storage needs. The emulator offers a remarkable resolution of 3.5 kilometers, replicating local conditions on a timescale from days to hours.
Researchers at PIK found that three sustainable development pathways are far more effective than current 'business as usual' strategies, driving progress towards SDGs while curbing global warming and environmental degradation. The pathways include a rapid shift to plant-based nutrition and reduced energy use per capita.
A new study has found that a significant fraction of meltwater mass is stored temporarily within the Greenland Ice Sheet during summer months, peaking in July. This discovery will help improve climate models, which often underestimate the complexity of water storage within ice sheets.
A global study published in Nature reveals that over 215 million hectares of tropical forests can support natural regeneration, sequestering 23.4 gigatonnes of carbon over 30 years. The identified area spans across five countries, including Brazil, Indonesia, China, Mexico, and Colombia, highlighting the need for targeted restoration e...
A study on Spanish dehesas has developed a tool to model pastureland productivity and water stress, allowing for more efficient grazing management. During severe droughts, grass production can drop by up to 67%, with areas having limited slopes and moderate tree cover being the most productive.
A Dartmouth study has quantified the global economic fallout of El Niño, finding it costs the economy $4.1 trillion and $5.7 trillion in the half-decade after each event. The study's findings are included in the 10 New Insights in Climate Science report ahead of COP29.
Researchers explored how future changes in the North Water Polynya could impact marine communities. Changes in plankton and fish populations were found to have significant effects on the entire ecosystem. Polar bear numbers are projected to halve due to declining phytoplankton and copepods.
A new study by the Barcelona Institute for Global Health found that more than half of European heat-related deaths in summer 2022 were related to human-induced climate change. The research showed a higher number of heat-related deaths attributed to climate change among women and people aged 80 and over.
A new study published in Geophysical Research Letters refines permafrost loss estimates for High Mountain Asia (HMA) under future warming. By adjusting climate sensitivity values, the researchers found that HMA permafrost area could shrink by 37% to 64% under mid- and low-emission scenarios by 2081-2100.
Researchers discovered that Titan's icy surface is warmed by an insulating layer of methane clathrate ice, which relaxes the impact craters' shape. This finding helps explain Titan's unique hydrological cycle and climate.
A collaborative project between the UK and China aims to develop actionable climate information for the tea industry, informing adaptation measures and decision-making. The Tea-CUP project focuses on Yunnan Province, where climate variability affects tea yield and quality, and has broader implications for sustainable development.
Under climate change scenarios, Ethiopia's Arabica coffee production suitability is expected to rise by 30-44%, while some cultivated areas will become less suitable. The study models indicate that this shift will occur by 2080.
A new study by MIT researchers shows that climate change will significantly impact outdoor activities in the US, with Florida and other Southeastern states experiencing major drops in
Researchers verify that large biodiversity databases can calibrate community models, improving predictions on species distribution and interactions. At least 50% of species must be recorded for accurate predictions, according to a study using GIBIF data.
Research from multiple ice cores in Greenland provides new understanding of Dansgaard-Oeschger events, which represent 'tipping points' in Earth's climate. The findings suggest interactions between the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and wintertime sea ice play a key role in these events.
Scientists estimate a 31% increase in global photosynthesis due to rising CO2 levels, with pan-tropical rainforests accounting for the largest difference. This improvement can enhance climate predictions and highlight the importance of natural carbon sequestration.