Articles tagged with Climate Modeling
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A team of researchers analyzed ancient leaf waxes to study past rainfall and drought patterns. By comparing their data with climate models, they verified how well those models capture past climate change and improved the accuracy of future rainfall predictions.
New study uses flume-tank experiments to observe changes in sediment deposits and current velocities, revealing insights into past ocean currents. The findings have huge application potential for understanding climate, pollution transport, and benthic ecology.
Research reveals that Category 4 and 5 hurricanes are arriving three to four days earlier with each passing decade due to climate change. This shift in seasonal cycle can lead to compounding extreme events and challenges community preparedness.
A new study by the University of Oxford found that ancient carbon in rocks can release significant amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere, rivaling volcanic emissions. This discovery challenges current understanding of the natural carbon cycle and has important implications for climate change modeling.
Researchers developed a precise historical reconstruction of the Red Sea circulation using fine-grained regional data. The new analysis reveals new characteristics of current circulation, temperature, salinity, and oceanic behavior, improving decision-making for megadevelopments like those in Saudi Arabia.
Researchers say current models fail to project oxygen dynamics in coastal ecosystems with high photosynthetic activity, such as seagrass meadows and coral reefs. Fluctuations in oxygen levels have been observed in systems like the Venice Lagoon and Red Sea coral reefs, where marine species adapt to changing conditions.
Researchers have identified that ancient quakes occurred in shallow faults on the Puget Lowlands in western Washington, which could lead to another devastating event. The study used tree rings to pinpoint the dates of these quakes and found a link between them, suggesting regional hazard models may need to be updated.
A research team led by Yongjie Huang is exploring the complex interactions between convective clouds and their surrounding environments. They aim to understand how convection initiates and how convective cells interact with their environment, ultimately improving computer models for forecasting.
Research suggests that a merged supercontinent will lead to extreme temperatures, making most of the world uninhabitable for mammals. The team used supercomputer climate models to simulate temperature trends, leading to predictions of widespread heat stress and mortality in humans and other species.
A PSU study examines how atmospheric patterns influencing the weather won't necessarily become stronger or more frequent by the end of the century. Instead, warmer temperatures will lead to an increase in rainfall over the Pacific Northwest in most seasons except summer.
Researchers developed an environmentally extended general equilibrium model to analyze the impact of technological progress on climate change. The study found that technological progress in some sectors increases global emissions, while others decrease them.
Climate models project a weakening relationship between the Asian-Pacific Oscillation and winter precipitation in southern China. The study found that as the APO weakens, atmospheric circulation anomalies become unfavorable for precipitation in southern China.
Researchers will track how key minerals form in a watershed to build a fuller picture of the processes that allow soil to store carbon as organic matter. Understanding these mechanisms can help develop practices and incentives for a carbon market economy, potentially harnessing Earth's natural mechanisms to combat climate change.
By 2070, 44.61% of koala habitats in Australia will be highly susceptible to bushfires, up from 39.56% today. Koalas may struggle to survive due to habitat fragmentation and food source vulnerability.
A new model shows London's cooling demand grew by 5% per year between 1980 and 2022 as summers heat up, highlighting the need for preparedness and energy efficiency measures. The Demand.ninja model can also predict potential benefits of behavior change, such as reducing natural gas consumption and CO2 emissions.
A new study finds that human activities are impacting the planet, breaching six planetary boundaries and increasing the risk of triggering dramatic changes. The study highlights the need for a global focus on interactions between boundaries, particularly Climate and Biosphere Integrity.
Climate scientists simulated North African Humid Periods every 21,000 years driven by Earth's orbital precession. The study revealed that these humid events intensified the West African Monsoon system, resulting in the spread of savannah-type vegetation across the desert.
Climate experts predict a decline in tropical storm frequency by 50% by 2050 across the Ganges and Mekong basins, but an increase in intensity, with high-resolution models showing significant increases for intense storms. This shift could impact disaster risk mitigation and climate adaptation strategies.
A research study has unveiled a previously unknown mechanism that significantly influenced Earth's climate during the Cretaceous period. The movement of continents during this time caused a slowdown in large ocean currents, disrupting their ability to transport warm water from the equator to the poles.
Researchers at the University of Melbourne have developed a new simulation model that can predict flooding during an ongoing disaster more quickly and accurately. The Low-Fidelity, Spatial Analysis and Gaussian Process Learning (LSG) model can produce predictions as accurate as advanced models but at speeds 1000 times faster.
Climate change is altering Italian mountain forests, with trees potentially shifting uphill and species disappearing. The study found that some species, like the European larch and Turkey oak, may thrive in a warmer future, while others, such as the silver fir and European beech, are at risk.
The article discusses how artificial intelligence can enhance climate modeling by generating large ensembles of simulations at moderately high resolutions. This approach capitalizes on advances in computing and AI to learn from data, enabling more accurate predictions and reduced uncertainty. By focusing on resolutions between 10-50 km...
A global food system model suggests that consumer choices and climate-smart technologies can help achieve net negative emissions by 2050. The study estimates that a complete transformation could remove up to 33 gigatons of carbon dioxide each year.
A new study forecasts the impact of marine heatwaves on top ocean predators, revealing varied effects and potential redistributions across international boundaries. The researchers developed models to provide real-time predictions of how species shift during heatwaves, informing proactive climate-ready management strategies.
A new Northwestern University-led study finds that electrifying 30% of heavy-duty vehicles in the lower Great Lakes region, including Chicago, would significantly reduce pollution and save hundreds of lives annually. The benefits are largely concentrated in disadvantaged communities, where residents face disproportionate health burdens.
A new study finds that warming temperatures may triple groundwater depletion rates in India under a business-as-usual scenario, with approximately 60% of the country's irrigated agriculture depending on the threatened groundwater. The study calls for policies to conserve groundwater and reduce energy subsidies.
Agricultural flash droughts are anticipated to become more frequent due to climate shifts, driven by changes in temperature, relative humidity, and soil moisture levels. Hot spots for flash drought development have been identified in Europe, South America, and southern Africa.
Research reveals that Dansgaard-Oeschger events triggered drastic global changes in atmospheric circulation and precipitation, impacting tropical monsoon domains severely. The study's findings support improved models to represent abrupt climate changes, shedding light on the potential impacts of future human-made global warming scenarios.
Research reveals that heatwaves like the 2003 European heatwave could become the new norm, with increased mortality risks, especially for the elderly and poor. Ideal temperature ranges vary by location, and climate models predict a significant increase in heat-related deaths in coming years.
A new study reveals that the Pacific Walker Circulation has changed its behavior over the industrial era, with volcanic eruptions causing temporary weakening of the circulation. This could lead to more frequent multi-year La Niña or El Niño events, exacerbating climate-related risks.
A new climate modeling method called ensemble boosting can simulate a large set of extreme but plausible heat waves, providing a worst-case scenario for planning and preparation. This method helps prepare for the potential loss of tens of thousands of lives in extreme heat waves.
A new study reveals that volcanic eruptions can temporarily weaken the Pacific Walker Circulation, a major driver of global precipitation. The recent strengthening of this circulation suggests that aerosols from human activity may have an opposite effect on its behavior.
A modeling study suggests the US can achieve deep emissions reductions in the building sector by 91% by 2050, primarily through demand-side measures. This would save over $100 billion per year in energy-related costs while meeting the country's net-zero emissions target.
Scientists have found that dust storms in Alaska can cause ice formation in clouds, which could add to or help cool the planet. The particles from these storms contain more biological material than those from desert environments, making them effective at forming ice crystals.
Scientists have developed a new method to study phytoplankton nutrient limitations using satellite remote sensing technologies, providing insights into the global ocean's carbon cycle. The research found that phytoplankton were limited by either iron or nitrogen, leading to distinct fluorescence signals detected by satellites.
A Dartmouth-led study suggests that expanded irrigation of corn and soybeans in the US could outweigh costs by mid-century. The research found that certain regions, such as North Dakota and Michigan, would benefit from irrigation due to increasing drought conditions.
A new study suggests that applying crushed volcanic rocks to agricultural fields can draw down 217 gigatons of carbon dioxide, meeting the lower end of the IPCC's 2100 target. The method, called enhanced rock weathering, is more efficient in hot and wet tropical regions and works well in warmer temperatures.
A new study found that a massive North Atlantic cooling event led to the disruption of early human occupation in Europe, with climate stress changing the course of early human history. The study used observational and modeling evidence to document the unprecedented climate anomaly.
Researchers found a pre-historic climate tipping point that explains why the Horn of Africa is getting drier despite rising temperatures. The study suggests that the region will become even drier in the future, contradicting most climate models' predictions.
Researchers at Washington University in St. Louis discovered that wildfires emit dark brown carbon, a potent climate-warming particle that absorbs solar radiation. This finding has broad implications for climate models and highlights the need to revise existing approaches to account for the unexpected effects of brown carbon.
A subpolar Atlantic plankton species was found in the central Arctic Ocean during the Last Interglacial period, indicating summers were ice-free. This discovery has implications for understanding Arctic climate dynamics without sea ice.
A recent study by GEOMAR researchers found that fluctuations in the Labrador Sea can significantly influence the strength of sinking processes east of Greenland. This phenomenon affects the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a crucial climate system that brings warm water from the Gulf of Mexico to Europe.
A new economic model suggests that extreme climates during the Middle Pleistocene era drove human brain evolution through assortative mating. The study found that colder climates favored individuals with larger brains, leading to an increase in intelligence.
Researchers are working to understand and predict wildfires' effects on the environment, including their impact on the carbon cycle and biodiversity. Studies have shown that repeated wildfires can accelerate the transition from tree- to shrub-dominated ecosystems, reducing plant diversity.
Researchers highlight the importance of tropical montane ecosystems and their limited data availability. The study proposes refining models to include socio-ecological diversity, emphasizing the need for a transdisciplinary network to quantify ecosystem services.
Researchers predict a significant increase in projected frequency of multiyear La Niña events under global warming. This is due to enhanced tropical-subtropical interaction and Pacific mean-state warming patterns.
Researchers developed an AI model powered by deep learning algorithms that outperforms traditional dynamic models in predicting central Pacific El Nino events. The study sheds light on the potential of AI to enhance seasonal forecasts, offering significant advancements in climate prediction.
A new model, the Carbon Neutrality Capacity Index (CNCI), evaluates contributions from various carbon sinks, including rock weathering and vegetation. The study reveals that Guizhou has a significantly higher CNCI than China's average, with regions like Libo and Pingtang showing surpluses.
Researchers at UC Santa Barbara's Climate Hazards Center have made significant advancements in predicting droughts and food shortages in the Eastern Horn of Africa, enabling agencies to take effective actions and provide humanitarian assistance. These early warnings have helped prevent devastating famines and saved millions of people f...
A new IIASA-led study addresses the challenge of adapting to climate change by proposing ways to better incorporate adaptive capacity into climate modeling tools. The researchers developed a data explorer to visualize global futures for indicators of adaptive capacity, enabling more precise risk estimates and reliable policy advice.
A recent study found significant changes in ocean color over the past two decades, affecting 56% of the world's oceans. The shift in color indicates changes in marine ecosystems, with tropical regions becoming greener due to human-induced climate change.
Researchers at Nagoya University found that Arctic dust is a significant source of particles forming ice crystals in Arctic low-level clouds. The findings suggest that Arctic dust can act efficiently as an ice nucleating particle, increasing the number of ice nucleating particles by over 100 times.
A study of maize hybrid varieties over 81 years found that while maize's tolerance to moderate heat stress has improved, its tolerance to severe heat stress has decreased. This shift in tolerance could have significant implications for climate change's impact on agriculture.
A new study suggests that while winter cover crops can reduce nitrogen pollution by up to 30%, their effectiveness will decrease under future climate scenarios. Illinois' corn yields are expected to suffer more than soybean yields, especially in southern regions, as warmer temperatures and changing rainfall patterns impact crop growth.
For over a billion years, the sun's atmospheric tide countered the moon's gravitational pull, keeping Earth's rotational rate steady and day length at 19.5 hours. This balance was disrupted by climate change, resulting in our current 24-hour day stretching to over 60 hours if not for the pause.
A University of California, Riverside-led team found that anthropogenic aerosol-driven changes in ocean circulation and interbasin heat transport are more effective in altering oceanic heat distribution than those driven by globally increasing greenhouse gases. This advance in understanding will help develop climate mitigation strategies.
A study using state-of-the-art climate models found that two-thirds of the selected CMIP6 models showed positive correlations between Asian-Pacific Oscillation (APO) and Southeast China precipitation, consistent with observations. The best-performing model ensemble (BMME) simulated the APO-associated precipitation and atmospheric anoma...
Researchers analyzed satellite data from 1967 to 2021, finding nearly twice as many grids with declining snow cover as advancing ones. Snow presence is decreasing in Arctic and southern latitudes, while some areas like Eastern Canada see an increase.
Researchers use artificial intelligence to predict where and why landslides occur, pinpointing key variables contributing to the earth's slip. Their new method improves accuracy and interpretability, making it more valuable for protecting lives and property.
A study by the University of Helsinki found that oxidized organic molecules from Amazon rainforests contribute to the formation of aerosol particles in the tropical free troposphere. These molecules, primarily composed of isoprene, can nucleate or condense on nanoparticles, impacting cloud formation and global climate.