Articles tagged with Climate Modeling
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The Tibetan Plateau's land surface darkening due to global warming affects regional and remote climates in Asia. The study predicts a 6.9% loss in glacier volume and increased monsoon precipitation over South Asia by the end of the century.
New research reveals methane traps heat in the atmosphere but also creates cooling clouds that offset 30% of the heat. Methane absorbs both longwave and shortwave energy, leading to a slight cooling effect.
A new study suggests that releasing 1000 gigatons of carbon will cause the southern portion of the ice sheet to melt irreversibly, while 2500 gigatons could lead to permanent loss of nearly the entire ice sheet. The researchers' findings indicate that we are nearing the first tipping point and may not be able to reverse it.
A new analysis of innovative approaches to project economic impacts along climate mitigation pathways reveals near-term emissions reductions are globally economically optimal, with central estimates for 'optimal warming' around 1.8-1.9°C by 2100. The study estimates that one euro invested in climate solutions saves the world about 1.5 ...
A new framework developed by a multidisciplinary team provides guidance to local and regional planners to anticipate and prepare for the impacts of climate change on critical civic resources. The C-FEWS framework evaluates options and makes decisions related to specific local conditions, focusing on the nexus of food, energy, and water.
A major study found that climate change could decline the diet quality of fish by up to 10% as zooplankton communities shift towards more carnivorous groups. This could exacerbate declines in fish biomass, with potential implications for human societies relying on fisheries for food and livelihoods.
A new study warns of a rise in potentially fatal infections caused by bacteria found along parts of the US coast, driven by global warming. The number of Vibrio vulnificus infections has increased from 10 to 80 per year over 30 years, with cases now found further north than ever before.
A study from Sophia University used AI and remote sensing data to predict dengue fever outbreak locations. Although the model had low accuracy, it suggests that spatiotemporal prediction of disease outbreaks may be possible with improvements.
A new study has found that the growing period of hardwood forests in eastern North America has increased by an average of one month over the past century as temperatures have steadily risen. The research used data from Ohio farmer Thomas Mikesell's comprehensive dataset and compared it to present-day observations, revealing a clear con...
The PaleoJump database offers a crucial tool for scientists to study abrupt transitions in the climate system. By analyzing pre-evaluated, relevant high-quality data archives, researchers can gain a clearer understanding of past climate change and its potential tipping points.
Researchers found giant underwater waves play a crucial role in ocean's ability to store heat and carbon, challenging current climate models. The study highlights the importance of small-scale turbulence in ocean circulation, which can significantly impact global climate projections.
A new study finds that tax interventions needed to combat climate change will need to be larger and more effective than previously thought. Improvements in energy efficiency technology are crucial, but technological adjustments take time.
A recent review study led by UT Austin examines the planet's freshwater supplies and strategies for sustainably managing them. The study emphasizes the importance of recognizing surface water and groundwater as a single resource to ensure future water resilience.
A recent study confirmed that a record-high temperature recorded in October 2021 would have been extremely unlikely to occur without the influence of global warming. The team quantified how often such heatwaves may occur during future fall seasons under different greenhouse gas emission scenarios.
Researchers found zero skua nests and almost zero Antarctic petrel and snow petrel nests in regions with significantly higher snowfall than previous years. Extreme snowstorms interfere with the birds' ability to breed, causing tens of thousands of chicks and eggs to die.
Climate models used to project climate change are not accurately reflecting the Arctic's future due to limited observations and calibration issues. The rate of warming will be much faster than projected, leading to a faster melt of sea ice.
Stefano Pierini proposes a new paradigm to simplify the verification of the Milankovitch hypothesis, combining physics concepts to link orbital parameters and glacial cycles. The deterministic excitation paradigm correctly predicts the timing of recent glacial terminations, offering insights into climate predictability.
A new study published in PNAS reveals that the dissolution of bubbles in high-latitude oceans is a dominant pathway for gases like oxygen and nitrogen to enter the deep ocean. This improved understanding can help improve the accuracy of climate models, which are crucial for predicting changes in the ocean's carbon dioxide inventory.
A new collaborative project led by the University of Liverpool aims to investigate the Gulf Stream's role in transporting nutrients and carbon, and its effect on the ocean's carbon uptake. The four-year programme will use cutting-edge sensors and models to better understand how the Gulf Stream influences climate change.
A pioneering study finds that flood risks in the UK can be kept below a 5% increase by 2050 if all countries meet their carbon emission pledges. The research reveals dramatic regional variations in flood hazards, with areas like South East England and London facing significant increases in damage.
Researchers predict heatwaves similar to the 2021 WNA heatwave will occur more frequently due to increased extreme temperatures and shortened return periods. A warmer climate will also lead to a larger area breaking temperature records in the region.
Satellite observations reveal Antarctic sea ice extent has dropped to a record low of 1.788 million square kilometers, marking a reversal from long-term increasing trend to a decreasing one. This occurrence raises questions about the cause and implications of this change, particularly in light of human-caused global warming.
Estuaries along the Atlantic coast and eastern Gulf of Mexico are expected to experience significant increases in nutrient loading, posing risks for harmful algal blooms and ecosystem health. The study identified regions with high adaptive capacity as having more resources to mitigate these effects.
A new European Union project aims to significantly improve Earth system models by incorporating more realistic mesoscale eddy representations. This will provide valuable climate information for national and international assessments, contributing to the IPCC's next Assessment Report.
A new study using satellite images found that glaciers on the Antarctic Peninsula are flowing up to 22% faster during summer months due to warmer ocean waters and melting snow. This speed-up, driven by reduced friction between ice sheets and underlying rock, poses a significant threat to global sea levels.
Researchers reconstruct ancient climates using plant fossils from the eastern seaboard, revealing a homogenous climate with warmer temperatures and increased rainfall seasonality. The findings suggest that future warming may be more similar to the early Miocene climate than expected.
Researchers used AI to analyze thousands of satellite measurements, revealing four categories of ice movements linked to meltwater flow. The study provides insight into how the Greenland ice sheet reacts to warmer temperatures and more meltwater.
Researchers used a high-performance computer simulation to study the impact of soil subsidence on permafrost thawing in the Arctic tundra. They found that uneven land subsidence leads to a drier landscape, which limits the process's acceleration through the end of the century.
Researchers developed a machine learning model using high-resolution satellite imagery to estimate aboveground carbon stocks in the Amazon. The study found that accounting for uncertainties in forest degradation classification led to lower estimates of mean carbon density, suggesting earlier estimates may have been over-optimistic.
Researchers studied ship tracks, which reflect sunlight and are formed by moving ships, to understand their benefits and risks of slowing climate change. They developed a mathematical model of ship tracks and found them to persist for more than 24 hours, longer than previously documented.
Researchers at Oregon State University have identified 27 amplifying feedback loops that significantly increase warming due to greenhouse gas emissions. The study calls for transformative changes in energy, transportation, food production, and international economy to meet climate challenges.
A new study warns that an irreversible loss of West Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets may be imminent if global temperature change cannot be stabilized below 1.8°C, leading to rapid sea level rise.
A new technique maps the effects of fire-induced permafrost thaw in Alaska, revealing widespread topographic change and vegetation shifts. The study used a machine learning-based approach to quantify thaw settlement across 3 million acres of land, with results showing a significant loss of evergreen forest and shrubland encroachment.
A new study uses Fourier analysis to understand how deep neural networks learn complex physics. By analyzing the equation of a fully trained model, researchers were able to identify crucial information about how the network learns and generalizes. This breakthrough could accelerate the use of scientific deep learning in climate science.
Tiantian Yang aims to develop an integrated solution addressing precipitation variability and uncertainty with a novel AI and data mining tool. His research will be tested in collaboration with U.S. agencies, aiming to better inform water management decisions.
A new study uses paleoclimate data to predict the impact of future climate change on land and sea. Terrestrial amplification, where land warms faster than sea, is estimated to be 40% larger over continents than oceans.
A new study predicts devastating socioeconomic impacts of future extreme coastal flooding on developing nations caused by climate change. Without adaptation measures, the number of people affected could increase from 34 million in 2015 to 246 million by 2100, with expected annual damage costing over five percent of national GDP.
A new study published in Geophysical Research Letters reveals that even dormant volcanoes release a surprisingly high amount of sulfur into the Arctic atmosphere. This finding has significant implications for understanding Earth's atmosphere and its relationship with climate and air quality.
Researchers used sophisticated models to estimate the peopling of Sahul, revealing a 10,000-year journey across the continent. The ancestors of Aboriginal people first entered the continent 75,000-50,000 years ago from Timor, expanding southward and northward to settle all parts of New Guinea and Australia.
New analyses suggest that climate change alters global precipitation and evaporation patterns, leading to increased sensitivity in river water availability. This study revises forecasting models by incorporating local measurement data from over 9,500 catchments worldwide.
Researchers found that benzene and toluene emitted by ocean plankton contribute significantly to aerosol production, increasing organic aerosols by up to 80% in the Southern Ocean. This biological origin of these gases is a significant factor in cloud formation and climate accuracy.
A team of researchers is using the Frontera supercomputer to develop medium to long-term fishery forecasts driven by high-resolution coupled climate forecasts. They find that changes to upwelling are predicted to be warmer, not colder, and may impact the sustainability of fisheries in the US and globally.
A new field campaign will provide crucial details on cloud and precipitation properties in the Southern Ocean. Scientists aim to improve climate models' accuracy with data from this region.
Researchers connected global climate modeling with local hydrological data to improve water flow models. They found that using smaller tree samples and younger trees yielded better model validation results.
A new study finds that global atmospheric dust has a slight overall cooling effect on the planet, hiding the full amount of warming caused by greenhouse gases. The UCLA research found that desert dust levels have grown 55% since the mid-1800s, counteracting warming effects.
Researchers analyzed relationships between snow cover and depth for three vegetation types in the Northern Hemisphere. Different interactions between land cover and snow processes were found, which climate models struggle to reproduce. This study highlights the need to improve snow parameterization schemes.
Research warns that ice roads will become unsustainable as the climate warms, threatening remote communities and industry. The thickness of ice needed to support transport trucks varies by region, with some areas experiencing a 90% decline in safe days of ice.
Researchers found that global wave models can vary in their estimates of extreme wave heights by up to 20 feet, which can lead to underprotected areas during extreme events. The study emphasizes the need for considering multiple models and modern observational data to better assess offshore and coastal risks.
The study reveals that achieving low forcing levels relies on negative CO2 emissions, particularly through carbon capture and storage methods. Regional contributions show the US, China, and EU as top contributors, with China's share projected to increase under future scenarios.
A recent study from researchers across 63 institutions, including Argonne National Laboratory, evaluated the impacts of various drivers on energy exchange in the Arctic. They found that vegetation type is a primary predictor of how energy is exchanged during the Arctic summer.
A team of researchers from Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University and other institutions has identified a flexible and user-friendly model for predicting flood frequency in a changing environment. The fractional polynomial-based regression method is more effective than existing models, which often fail to account for factors like climate ...
A research team investigated NPF events in Beijing's atmosphere, discovering regional transport plays a vital role in creating 'polluted' NPF events. These events significantly impact air quality, climate, and human health, highlighting the importance of joint air pollution control measures.
A new study reveals that changing ocean circulation strengthens precipitation patterns in the Indian Ocean, leading to more intense flood events and droughts. The research suggests a mutual amplification of these effects due to global warming and weakened ocean circulation.
Climate-driven heating of seawater is causing a slowdown of deep circulation patterns in the Atlantic and Southern oceans, which could lead to a complete shutdown by 2300. This would intensify global warming and reduce ocean uptake of carbon dioxide, resulting in declining marine ecosystems.
A study by Brown researchers reveals how climate change can impact the Indian Ocean dipole, leading to extreme weather events like megadroughts in East Africa and flooding in Indonesia. The analysis compares long-term climate data with simulations from an advanced climate model.
Researchers warn that commonly used methods for estimating equilibrium climate sensitivity in complex climate models may be underestimating temperature rise. The study highlights the need for longer simulations to account for potential late tipping points, which could significantly influence global warming.
Researchers at the University of Basel have calculated that Andermatt-Sedrun-Disentis ski resort's 100-day ski season is unlikely by 2100 due to warmer winters. Water consumption for snowmaking will increase significantly, with an average winter requiring 540 million liters of water.
New study reveals marine algae adapt to nutrient-poor ocean conditions, sustaining productivity even in depleted waters. This 'metabolic hack' could impact global ocean productivity and carbon sequestration.
A new study reveals that certain types of lipids found in ancient fossils are produced by specific living bacteria. By identifying these microorganisms and understanding how they produce the lipids, scientists can create more accurate climate reconstructions. This discovery also sheds light on the early evolution of life on Earth.
By analyzing satellite imagery and tracking net primary productivity, researchers aim to predict how ecosystems will respond to climate change. Their model suggests that the rate at which ecosystems adapt to changing conditions is a critical component to reducing uncertainty about future projections.