Weather Simulations

New scenarios needed to address climate crisis

AMS Science Preview: “Ornamental twilight,” heat deaths, hurricane eyes

When the Schuylkill swallowed the city: Lessons from Hurricane Ida’s historic flood

AI falls short in predicting weather extremes

Researchers from UNIGE and KIT found that traditional numerical models remain more reliable for predicting extreme phenomena than AI-based forecasts. The study highlights the limitations of AI weather models in extrapolating beyond their training domain, making them less effective for record-breaking events.

How turbulences affect wind turbines

Researchers develop new concept to accurately model wind turbine loads, focusing on local gusts' impact on material fatigue. This enhances turbine design and efficiency by reducing uncertainties in load estimations.

AMS science preview: AI forecast limits, unpredictable hurricanes, simplified heat index

New research from the American Meteorological Society explores AI forecasting limits, the impact of climate change on hurricane trends, and simplifies the heat index. The studies find that machine learning can outperform numerical physics-based models in certain conditions, but not universally.

Tiny particles in Arctic ponds may play role in cloud formation, climate change

Researchers from Colorado State University found that tiny particles bubbling up from melting sea ice in the Arctic sky can create clouds, providing a platform for water vapor to freeze onto. This discovery sheds light on why Arctic clouds behave differently and could help improve weather modeling and climate change predictions.

Fantastic fungi found with ability to freeze water

Researchers have identified fungal proteins that can catalyze ice formation at high subzero temperatures, making them a potential alternative to toxic silver iodide in cloud seeding. The discovery could lead to safer weather modification and improved food preservation techniques.

AMS Science Preview: Mississippi River, ocean carbon storage, gender and floods

Researchers investigated the Mississippi River's hydrological trends, ocean carbon storage, and gender dynamics in flood mortality. A study found that precipitation increases, but soil moisture decreases, while high-resolution models reveal stronger Southern Ocean carbon absorption. Additionally, data showed men are overrepresented in ...

AI weather models show promise for hurricane forecasts, but new Rice study finds key physical limitations

New study evaluates two prominent AI global weather models, finding they excel at forecasting storm tracks but struggle to reproduce realistic wind patterns and storm intensity. The researchers emphasize the need for bias corrections and interpretation to improve AI forecasting accuracy.

New AI agent could transform how scientists study weather and climate

Researchers developed Zephyrus, an AI agent capable of analyzing and answering questions in natural language about weather and climate data. The agent can handle language-based queries, translating them into code and generating plain language answers.

Exposure to life-limiting heat has soared around the planet

A new study finds that the amount of time per year that extreme heat makes it unsafe to go about daily life has doubled since the 1950s, with younger adults facing 2x more hours of heat-related limitations, while older adults face 50% more

UK winters becoming wetter due to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere

A study by Newcastle University found that UK winters are becoming significantly wetter, with a 7% increase in rainfall per degree of global warming, driven by rising temperatures from anthropogenic warming. The experts warn that this trend will continue to worsen, increasing the risk of flooding and economic damages.

University of Oklahoma researcher awarded funding to uncover secrets of cloud formation

Salesky's research team will address uncertainty in how turbulent processes contribute to cloud formation by using simulations to replicate turbulence and test environmental conditions. The study aims to improve civilian and military weather forecasting models, with significant implications for precipitation and severe weather.

New study identifies warning signs for extreme flash flooding

Researchers at Newcastle University and the UK Met Office identified a three-layered atmospheric structure associated with heavy rainfall developing within minutes. The findings help explain record-breaking rainfall and flash floods in the UAE and Oman in April 2024, and may aid future improvements in identifying risk.

Tornado-forecast system can increase warning lead times, study finds

Researchers at the University of Kansas have developed a tornado-forecast system called Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS) that can predict tornado formation up to an hour before it occurs. The system uses high-resolution simulations and gauges uncertainties, providing guidance on severe weather threats.

Wood burning in homes drives dangerous air pollution in winter

Residential wood burning accounts for over one-fifth of wintertime exposure to outdoor fine particulate matter, linked to increased risks of heart disease and premature death. By reducing indoor wood burning, Americans could decrease outdoor air pollution and save thousands of lives.

Safeguarding the Winter Olympics-Paralympics against climate change

Researchers recommend shifting Olympic and Paralympic Games to earlier dates to protect fairness and safety for athletes. Snowmaking is also seen as a crucial adaptation strategy to ensure the viability of snow sports.

AMS Science Preview: Volcanic rain, dust storms, and unstable Antarctic air

Recent research reveals that volcanic eruptions can cause unpredictable weather patterns, including volcanic rain, dust storms, and unstable Antarctic air. The study also found that the Antarctic surface atmosphere has become less stable and more prone to gravity waves since the 1950s.

UF dives deep into predicting storm damage with computer models

A team of researchers used innovative approaches, including public data and machine learning models, to create more accurate predictions of coastal erosion and infrastructure damage. The project aims to improve storm preparedness and timeliness.

Ateneo, Manila Observatory track down elusive rain-triggering ‘shear lines’

Scientists developed an objective index for monitoring and detecting shear lines over the Philippines, accounting for up to 20% of extreme rainfall days. The detection method is useful for weather forecasting, early warning systems, and understanding how this weather system evolves.

AMS 2026 Meeting showcases atmospheric science and the “human factor”

The 106th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society will focus on the intersection of technology and human decision-making in weather, water, and climate sciences. The meeting will feature keynote presentations, Presidential Sessions, and named symposia highlighting key Earth science topics.

AMS Science Preview: Railways and cyclones; pinned clouds; weather warnings in wartime

Researchers investigate how adjacent cities exacerbate each other's heat island effects. A study also highlights the need for improved hindcasting infrastructure in climate science. Additionally, a campaign monitors pinned clouds over industrial sources of heat and finds that trees are more reliable against heat stress than buildings.

The simulated Milky Way: 100 billion stars using 7 million CPU cores

Researchers at RIKEN successfully simulated the Milky Way Galaxy with over 100 billion individual stars, far surpassing previous state-of-the-art models. This achievement demonstrates the power of AI-accelerated simulations in tackling complex multi-scale problems in astrophysics and beyond.

A dual-source data-driven gated spatiotemporal fusion network significantly enhances the accuracy of fine-scale lightning forecasting based on weather foundation models

A dual-source data-driven gated spatiotemporal fusion network significantly enhances the accuracy of fine-scale lightning forecasting. The model combines the strengths of weather foundation models and recent lightning observations, leveraging complementary features to improve forecast performance.

AI boosts National Weather Model flood prediction accuracy sixfold

A new study developed a flood-forecasting AI that can be tuned for any country, reducing errors in national flood prediction programming. The hybrid model combining the AI with the National Water Model was four to six times more accurate, improving forecast accuracy and potential economic impacts of floods.

New climate models to reveal secret life of water

Scientists at Rice University and NSF NCAR are developing a new climate model that can track water's unique fingerprints, providing insights into the water cycle and its impact on climate systems. The project aims to better understand how much rain falls, where moisture comes from, and how it travels through the atmosphere and oceans.

New study confirms red squirrels are resilient to climate change in Europe but underlines need to conserve their habitat

A new study by Bournemouth University confirms that red squirrel populations across Europe are resilient to the effects of climate change, but highlights the need for conservation efforts to protect their habitat. The study found that temperature changes and low rainfall do not directly affect the survivability of red squirrels.

Scientists track lightning “pollution” in real time using NASA satellite

Researchers from the University of Maryland tracked lightning storms in real-time using NASA's TEMPO instrument, detecting nitrogen oxide emissions that affect climate and air quality. The study reveals how lightning can produce pollutants that travel long distances, influencing air quality far from the original storm.

New AI tool tracks early signs of hurricane formation

A new AI system developed by the University of Miami Rosenstiel School can automatically identify and track tropical easterly waves, separating them from other tropical wind patterns. The model combines historical observations with reanalysis data to produce accurate real-time forecasts.

Engineer's work aims to improve tropical storm predictions

Tiny droplets of sea spray can affect hurricane intensity, but measuring their concentration and size is challenging. Researchers at the University of Texas at Dallas are using lab experiments and simulations to develop a machine learning model that incorporates these factors.

Identifying landslide threats using hydrological predictors

A new framework developed by Northwestern University and UCLA scientists integrates various water-related processes with a machine-learning model to predict landslide threats. The framework identifies three main pathways leading to landslides: intense rainfall, rain on already saturated soils, and melting snow or ice.

320 million trees are killed by lightning each year — Considerable biomass loss

Researchers estimate that lightning kills around 320 million trees each year, resulting in significant biomass loss. This equates to an annual emission of 0.77-1.09 billion tons of CO₂, comparable to the emissions from wildfires.

Earth's future climate at 9 km worldwide resolution

A team of scientists has developed a high-resolution climate model that simulates global climate change at 9 km atmospheric and 4-25 km oceanic scales. The model demonstrates superior performance compared to lower-resolution models, providing detailed regional insights into future climate conditions.

Barcelona could suffer heat waves up to 6ºC more intense by the end of the century

A study predicts that Barcelona will experience extreme and dry heat periods with temperature increases of up to 4ºC and a general reduction in relative humidity. The research forecasts an increase in average maximum temperatures of 4ºC and average minimum temperatures of 3.5ºC if greenhouse gas emissions are not drastically reduced.

New study shows Hurricane Hunter flights significantly increase forecast accuracy

A new study published in Weather and Forecasting found that Hurricane Hunter flights can increase forecast accuracy by up to 24 percent. The researchers analyzed forecasts for all tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin from 2018 to 2022, comparing forecasts with and without NOAA G-IV data.

New insights into the jet stream make better climate predictions possible

Researchers have made significant breakthroughs in understanding the complex interactions between climate drivers and the Southern Hemisphere's Eddy-Driven Jet. By analyzing historical data and applying innovative statistical methods, they found that 50% of the observed shift in the jet stream is directly attributable to global warming.

Study challenges climate change's link to our wild winter jet stream

Researchers found several volatile phases in the polar jet stream over the past 125 years that predate significant climate change effects. The study suggests that natural fluctuations may be driving recent erratic behavior of the jet stream, rather than climate change.

Alps could face a doubling in torrential summer rainfall frequency as temperatures rise by 2°C

A new study predicts that a 2°C temperature rise could double the frequency of short-lived summer downpours in the Alpine region, causing severe damage and posing risks to lives. The analysis of nearly 300 mountain weather stations found that warm air retains more moisture, intensifying thunderstorm activity.

Multiple extreme climate events at the same time may be the new normal

Researchers at Uppsala University predict that concurrent extreme events will become more frequent due to climate change, posing new challenges for preparedness. The study examines six types of events and finds a sharp increase in combinations of heatwaves and forest fires, as well as heatwaves and droughts, in various regions worldwide.

The atmosphere’s growing thirst is making droughts worse, even where it rains

A new study finds that increasing atmospheric evaporative demand is making droughts 40% more severe globally over the past 40 years. As the atmosphere warms, air can hold more moisture, leading to increased water demand and pulling more water from soils, rivers, and plants.

Atlantic ocean current unlikely to collapse with climate change

A new study from Caltech finds that the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, commonly referred to as the AMOC, will weaken by around 18 to 43 percent at the end of the 21st century. This represents a limited decline, rather than substantial weakening as previously predicted, addressing a long-standing uncertainty in climate sci...

Wind-related hurricane losses for homeowners in the southeastern U.S. could be nearly 76 percent higher by 2060

A new study projects that wind losses for homeowners in the Southeast will increase by 76% by 2060 and 102% by 2100. Texas is expected to experience the highest increase in losses, followed by Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama.

Cloudy with a chance of lifesaving and more cost-effective weather predictions

A team of researchers developed a machine learning model called Aurora that accurately forecasts various Earth systems, including air quality and tropical cyclone tracks. The model outperforms traditional systems at a fraction of the cost, enabling better preparedness for extreme weather events.

The atmospheric memory that feeds billions of people: Newly discovered mechanism for monsoon rainfall

A new study reveals the atmosphere can store moisture over extended periods, creating a physical memory effect. This 'memory' allows monsoon systems to flip between two stable states, with severe consequences for regions relying on monsoon rainfall.

AMS report and statement: "America's economic leadership is at risk"

The American Meteorological Society warns that catastrophic cuts to federal science agencies like NOAA threaten the US weather enterprise, which supports public safety, private sector operations, and national security. A strong weather enterprise is essential for America's economic leadership.

Air-Sea interaction modeling mystery solved, researchers report

A new study has discovered that increasing ocean resolution is key to accurately simulating AMO variability, particularly at multidecadal timescales. High-resolution ocean experiments correctly showed the AMO lasting 40-80 years, while low-resolution ocean experiments showed unrealistic cycles every 10-20 years.

Hundred-year storm tides will occur every few decades in Bangladesh, scientists report

A new study by MIT scientists finds that extreme storm tides will increase tenfold for Bangladesh, with what was once a 100-year event now striking every 10 years by the end of the century. The country's densely populated coastal regions are expected to experience more frequent and severe flooding events as a result.

New computer model reveals how Bronze Age Scandinavians could have crossed the sea

A new computer modeling tool suggests that Bronze Age people may have traveled directly over the open ocean between Denmark and Norway. The simulations indicate that such trips were possible, but required a boat with specific capabilities and good weather forecasting.

How the failure of two dams amplified the Derna Flood tragedy

A new study reveals that two dam failures and flawed risk assessment amplified the Derna Flood, which was nearly twentyfold more destructive than expected. The research highlights the urgent need for improved flood mitigation strategies, especially in dryland regions.

Using machine learning to overcome blind spots in satellite-based PM10 monitoring

A new real-time surface PM10 retrieval framework uses interpretable automated machine learning to provide accurate data across China. The framework demonstrates robust generalization and stability, outperforming previous studies in cross-validation and rolling iterative validation experiments.

Researchers using lidar and AI to advance transportation engineering and safety

University of Missouri researchers developed a method using lidar and AI to analyze pedestrian, cyclist, and vehicle interactions at traffic signals. The approach aims to enhance driver awareness, reduce accidents, and improve mobility.

Stormy rains in the Sahara offer clues to past and future climate changes

Research reveals Atlantic Ocean storms are primary drivers of Sahara lake filling, contradicting previous theories. Heavy precipitation events triggered by extreme rainstorms reshape water availability in the desert, with implications for ecosystems and human settlements.

Marine litter: the importance of making accurate estimates to control these contaminants

A University of Malaga study highlights the importance of accurate estimates of marine litter to address the environmental concern. The research found that current monitoring strategies are inadequate, and simulation experiments identified the most appropriate sampling strategies to achieve more accurate results.

How’s the weather on Mars?

A new study reveals that atmospheric gravity waves play a crucial role in driving latitudinal air currents on Mars, particularly at high altitudes. The findings suggest fundamental differences from Earth's middle atmosphere.

Researchers find more accurate way to track polar bears during their most secretive stage of life

A new study combines satellite collar data with specialized cameras to shed light on the mysterious and important stage of maternal denning. The researchers found that using both methods can accurately predict when polar bears will emerge from their dens and how external factors like temperature influence their behavior.

Study: The ozone hole is healing, thanks to global reduction of CFCs

A new study by MIT confirms the Antarctic ozone layer is healing, with high statistical confidence that reductions in CFCs are the primary cause. The research uses fingerprinting to isolate the anthropogenic signal and rule out natural variability.

The US weather enterprise: A national treasure at risk

The US weather enterprise faces significant risks due to federal science funding cuts, which could lead to reduced weather forecasting accuracy and increased vulnerability to hazardous weather. The value of weather information to the US economy exceeds $100 billion annually.

New parameterization schemes enhance the prediction accuracy of typhoon intensity

A new study improves typhoon track and intensity forecasts using advanced parameterization schemes for friction velocity and cloud microphysics. The results show enhanced predictions with improved timing and magnitude of extreme tropical cyclone intensity values.

Hurricane-proofed downtown skyscrapers unexpectedly vulnerable to ‘bouncing’ winds

A new study reveals that downtown Houston skyscrapers designed to withstand hurricanes are actually more vulnerable to intense, localized wind forces called downbursts. The research found that these strong winds can cause significant damage to facade panels, cladding, and windows on lower floors.