The American Meteorological Society continuously publishes research on climate, weather, and water in its 12 journals . Many of these articles are available for early online access– they are peer-reviewed, but not yet in their final published form . Below are some recent examples of online and early-online research.
JOURNAL ARTICLES
What follows are summaries that have not been peer-reviewed or vetted by the article authors; read the full article for peer-reviewed conclusions. Please note that no single study is ever definitive, and each must be taken in the context of the broader scientific literature.
The Primacy of Physical Simulation in the Age of AI: A Critique of ML for Weather Forecasting
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Some AI forecasting has limits. AI-based forecasting has a great deal of potential—and sees a great deal of hype. A new paper compares machine learning (ML) weather forecasts that make statistical predictions based on data about past events with forecasts created by numerical models that are based on simulated atmospheric physics. It argues that when ML has a lot of statistical data and observations to mine, it can outperform numerical physics-based models; however, when observational data are scarce, physics-based models may perform better. The authors suggest that “machine-learning statistical estimation neither can nor should be expected to supplant physics-based simulation for weather forecasting.”
Influence of Sea Surface Temperature Patterns and Mean Warming on Past and Future Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity
Journal of Climate
Future hurricane trends may be harder to read. A modeling study suggests tropical cyclone (TC) frequency trends will be less clear in the future due to changes in two variables that drive TC development: potential intensity (a measure of heat/energy balance in the atmosphere) and moist entropy deficit (a measure of the moisture content in the midtroposphere). Historically in the Atlantic Ocean, both variables tended to reinforce each other. Under climate warming, average moist entropy deficit will become less favorable, while potential intensity will become more favorable, making cyclone frequency more dependent on regional patterns.
Simpler and Faster: An Improved Heat Index
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
Simplifying the heat index–plus new terms for heat stress. Calculating the heat index is slow and complicated. This paper presents a simplified algorithm that according to the authors, is faster and more user-friendly and resolves some inconsistencies. It results in slight changes to heat index values at lower temperatures (below ~81°F/27°C) but not at higher temperatures. The paper also notes that researchers have used the term “uncompensable heat” heat as a synonym for heat that leads to fatal body temperatures, but applied it to conditions that aren’t necessarily fatal. The authors suggest new categories: “normothermic” for heat/humidity levels where people can keep their core temperature steady (e.g., through sweating or adding/removing clothing), “hyperthermic” for when the core temperature rises but doesn’t keep fatally rising because heat is radiated away from the body, and “lethal.”
Empowering Africa: Advancing Lightning Safety and Research Initiatives
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Lack of lightning research leaves Africans vulnerable. Each year, lightning kills and injures more people per capita in African countries than most countries on other continents. Yet lightning research, education, and safety initiatives are sparse. This paper highlights the limited initiatives underway, the barriers they face, and the urgent need for more research and attention.
High-resolution Precipitation Forecasts for Hurricane Helene Improve Landslide Predictions
Weather and Forecasting
Integrating higher-resolution precipitation forecasts might have improved landslide predictions for Hurricane Helene. The global Landslide Hazard Assessment for Situational Awareness (LHASA) system identified the potential for landslides prior to Hurricane Helene, and flagged 57% of the sites where landslides ended up occurring. This study finds that in a “hindcast” experiment (using a computer model to re-forecast an event), integrating precipitation data from NOAA’s High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model enhances the ability of the global LHASA model to identify the potential for landslides in the most heavily affected areas.
Evaluating the Utility of Drought Indices and Indicators for Monitoring Environmental Drought in Pollinators
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
Bumblebees are more sensitive to drought conditions than other bees. A study of the mid-Atlantic United States found that drought conditions have observable impacts on the abundance of pollinator bees in the genus Bombus (bumblebees), and less so on three other genera of bees. These impacts vary depending on ecoregion—in the central Appalachians (largely deciduous forest), for example, drought-related variables were positively correlated with pollinator abundance, meaning as one increases the other similarly increases; in the southern piedmont (mixed urban, forested, and agricultural lands), however, the relationship was negative, meaning the changes in indicators and pollinators oppose each other.
Climate Legislation and Global Green Development Transition: The Role of International Environmental Engagement and Government Readiness
Weather, Climate, and Society
Climate legislation encourages green development, especially in “nonemerging” countries. This study examines the relationship between climate legislation and eco-conscious/green development across countries. It finds an overall positive impact, especially when governments are prepared to enforce the legislation and engage with other countries around environmental issues. The relationship between legislation and green development was less clear among countries experiencing rapid economic growth.
Effect of Radiation Shield Type on Air Temperature Measured by Urban Station; Extensive Inter-comparison Study in Ostrava, Czech Republic
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
Shields may confound urban heat measurements. Meteorological heat sensors are shielded from direct sunlight/precipitation to more accurately measure air temperature. However, this study finds that in urban settings, the shields themselves can affect temperature readings. Under many shields, sensors overestimated the number of days that hit very high daytime temperature thresholds, and underestimated warm nights (an important human health factor). UV-stable white plastic shields worked best for accurate readings.
Evaluating the Financial Impact of Soil Moisture Measurements for Livestock Producers in the Upper Missouri River Basin
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
More extensive drought observations may assist farmer compensation. In 2017, severe drought led the USDA’s Livestock Forage Disaster Program to pay nearly $200 million to affected farmers. A drought monitoring network with 78 stations in the upper Missouri River basin will soon be expanded to ~540 stations, and this paper uses modeling data to approximate 2017 readings from the new station installation sites. Data from these stations would have reduced errors in estimating the extent of the drought by more than 20%, potentially leading to greatly increased payments for farmers.
The Viability of Cycloidal Debris Swaths as a Tornado Wind Speed Estimation Method
Monthly Weather Review
Debris curls provide an alternative for assessing tornado strength. Tornado wind speed ratings are currently based on the damage tornadoes inflict, but only certain kinds of damage are seen as reliable. This study suggests that “cycloidal debris swaths” (looplike patterns of debris—such as cornstalks—deposited on relatively flat ground) can now be used to reliably estimate wind speed, thanks to advances like aerial imagery and GIS technology.
Idealized Simulations of the Sensitivity of Supercell Thunderstorm Behavior Near Complex Terrain to Storm Maturity and Approach Angle
Monthly Weather Review
Terrain’s effect on thunderstorms depends on storm age and angle of approach . Complex terrain such as that found in the eastern U.S.’s Appalachian Mountains is known to affect the intensity and duration of supercell thunderstorms. This study using simulated storms finds that on average, a “hostile thermodynamic environment” and downslope wind flow around terrain suppresses storms, but in some circumstances wind flow creates favorable conditions depending on the angle at which the storm is approaching. Mature supercells showed the greatest impacts from terrain on their intensity, but growing supercells were most likely to see their longevity affected based on interactions with terrain.
You can view all research published in AMS Journals at journals.ametsoc.org .
The American Meteorological Society advances the atmospheric and related sciences, technologies, applications, and services for the benefit of society. Founded in 1919, AMS has a membership of around 12,000 professionals, students, and weather enthusiasts. AMS publishes 12 atmospheric and related oceanic and hydrologic science journals; hosts more than 12 conferences annually; and offers numerous programs and services. Visit us at www.ametsoc.org/ .
The American Meteorological Society continuously publishes research on climate, weather, and water in its 12 journals . Some AMS journals are open access. Media login credentials are available for subscription journals. Journals include the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society , Weather, Climate, and Society , the Journal of Climate , and Monthly Weather Review .
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology